General Model Output Discussion

[nick sussex]

Surely the question has to be asked--why oh why has it taken this length of time.

Not wanting to be too critical here just in case the ecm implodes this evening! In terms of the gfs it overblows shortwaves etc and because of this was most likely to take too much energy ne wards, a small defence in that it's a fine balancing act because of the strengthening Greenland block and the low coming in from the sw, on top of this in a straight fight with the ecm, the model most likely to hang on to the wrong synoptics within T-96 hrs is the gfs not the ecm.

Equally for blocking patterns the ecm is IMO more reliable, conversely I think the gfs is better with zonal set ups and can pick those northerly topplers quite well although it often overplays the depth of cold and longevity of these. I know people think I just continually slate the gfs but I'm just trying to be objective here, all i'm likely to get down here in sw France is cold rain so whichever output was correct wasn't going to make much difference to me.

If i thought the ecm was wrong i'd gladly slate that aswell! but overall given the pattern there was really only one model i would trust upto 144 hrs and that is the ecm.

Edited December 28, 2009 by nick sussex

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Game, set and match to the ecm! this is a major climbdown by the gfs and it also fills that nuisance feature near Norway quite quickly here also.

Just throw in that Nick has been advocating this on many posts.

That post from Ian Ferguson is what I call 'sit up and take note, this has very serious potential' and it won't end after a couple of days either. Rain rain rain kindly has posted my severe weather warning on his sig [with a nice shake of the head], but I maintain that serious conditions severe and cold enough to be in the same room as Jan 87, are coming. Round one approaches and I anticipate a further 3 rounds possibly 4 to come over the following two weeks.....15-19 Jan...hmm let's say huge energy peak with so much cold air around.

Fascinating model watching all the same.

BFTP

Edited December 28, 2009 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Neilsouth]

UKMO 12z T+72

Cold and east , north east winds!

[Bolton67]

see my later post and yes, usually by quite a margin-BUT the trick is knowing WHEN GFS is more right!

Cheers for the reply.

[Eugene]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1262.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1381.png - Astounding chart here people look at how far west that easterly from europe goes

OMG i don't think i can contain my excitement look at that frigid airmass just to our northeast with such a strong block to our northwest and LP stalling to our SW, we are in an incredible spell of weather people savour it because you never know when we`ll see anything like it again :o

[SMU]

UKMO 12z T+72

Cold and east , north east winds!

& the 96 chart--- thats 2 great 12z runs....

I sense there will be some euphoria tonight if start getting consistency over the Very cold easterlies being replaced by bitter Easterlies....

S

[TEITS]

A typical early Jan christmas pudding chart.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.png

UKMO at +96 is tasty also.

Fanbloodytastic 12Zs so far.

[Bolton67]

A typical early Jan christmas pudding chart.

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1441.png

UKMO at +96 is tasty also.

http://www.meteociel...96-21.GIF?28-17

Fanbloodytastic 12Zs so far.

Whats happend to the shortwave that was around Norway?

[Snowaddict]

I'm getting blood pressure looking at the 12Z GFS evolution to T+168!

It's fantastic, don't care - time for a ramp!!

That's severe cold into the UK & Ireland..

Further out - just look at that propensity to undercut at T+168..

Another further 100 mile shift southwards on the 18Z with the same evolution as the 12Z otherwise and I'll bank the GFS!

SA

[SMU]

515 dam in the SE

S

[Rollo]

Whats happend to the shortwave that was around Norway?

Its progged to fill up and move west in the general flow.

[SMU]

Whats happend to the shortwave that was around Norway?

It doesnt interact with th shortwave in the south western approaches so it carries on SW past the UK & eventually fills...

S

[clark3r]

http://www.meteociel...20-21.GIF?28-17

515 dam in the SE

S

what does 515 dam in the south east mean?????

[danm]

what does 515 dam in the south east mean?????

Very cold air

[snow drift]

what does 515 dam in the south east mean?????

That you will need to put a coat on!!!!!!!!

[SteveB]

what does 515 dam in the south east mean?????

Cold cold cold. not often seen in the UK.

[nick sussex]

515 dam in the SE

S

It gets even better at 144hrs,wonderful ukmo model output, very excited for you all in the UK, i'll enjoy this by proxy from under the umbrella keeping the cold rain away! You never know if the jet keeps going further south i may even end up with a snowflake or two. But regardless very pleased to see tonights upgrades so far.

[Neilsouth]

It gets even better at 144hrs,wonderful ukmo model output, very excited for you all in the UK, i'll enjoy this by proxy from under the umbrella keeping the cold rain away! You never know if the jet keeps going further south i may even end up with a snowflake or two. But regardless very pleased to see tonights upgrades so far.

Yeh!!

Nice :o

[Richard Lake]

Yeh!!

Nice

Hard to explain as I know very little has the Blue and Purple ever completely surrounded the North Pole - historically speaking?

I assume they are cold high pressure systems.

Edited December 28, 2009 by rikki

[tinybill]

Cold cold cold. not often seen in the UK.

well all i say is get the spades ready if it comes off their going to be a lot of digging going on !!! cant wait

[LomondSnowstorm]

Still baffled by the lack of significance given to the snow potential tomorrow night onwards for here - where is the major snow potential in this chart - Central Scotland or the M4 corridor? Central Scotland.png

[Tim Bland]

A typical early Jan christmas pudding chart.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.png

UKMO at +96 is tasty also.

Fanbloodytastic 12Zs so far.

will those Easterlies bring the same precipitation areas that we saw on the 17th / 18th? If so then parts of the home counties and EA could be burried by next week! I'm currently in Oslo where it is -14 with 100cm of snow! It's amazing how they cope with it out here. They have hundreds of snow clearing machines working 24/7 to keep the city moving. Looking at the charts I think London will need some of this equipment next week! I am due to land on Weds eve at Luton but I expect I could be delayed!

[andy_leics22]

Still baffled by the lack of significance given to the snow potential tomorrow night onwards for here - where is the major snow potential in this chart - Central Scotland or the M4 corridor? Central Scotland.png

M4 corridor surely

That is what I have been so baffled about all day long... The GFS say the precip will be as far North as Yorkshire and even Scotland but the BBC say it will get upto South Midlands and then move away?

[Mondy]

M4 corridor surely

That is what I have been so baffled about all day long... The GFS say the precip will be as far North as Yorkshire and even Scotland but the BBC say it will get upto South Midlands and then move away?

The last BBC forecast I saw was 11am this morning and the forecaster (forget his name) actually said the ppn would reach Southern Midlands, then move south again soon after. Yeah, beats me too

[Methuselah]

I'm guessing here..But, I guess that any snow up-here will be via convection off the North Sea - bar that what we have now, of course???