South West England Cold Spell Discussion

[Lynxus]

BBC weather is showing snow for glos airport from Tuesday -> Fri

[dogs32]

BBC weather is showing snow for glos airport from Tuesday -> Fri

This will put a smile or laughter on your face

A FRESH blast of icy weather will bring up to 12 INCHES more snow - and travel chaos - to parts of the UK tomorrow.

Read more: http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/2786112/Foot-of-snow-is-on-the-way.html#ixzz0azBZBQFJ

Edited December 28, 2009 by dogs32

[Lynxus]

This will put a smile or laughter on your face

A FRESH blast of icy weather will bring up to 12 INCHES more snow - and travel chaos - to parts of the UK tomorrow.

Read more: http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/2786112/Foot-of-snow-is-on-the-way.html#ixzz0azBZBQFJ

OMG. My head just exploded.

[BristolBlizzard]

This will put a smile or laughter on your face

A FRESH blast of icy weather will bring up to 12 INCHES more snow - and travel chaos - to parts of the UK tomorrow.

Read more: http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/2786112/Foot-of-snow-is-on-the-way.html#ixzz0azBZBQFJ

Wow you can get 7/4 for there to be snow falling on Friday in cardiff.

Might have to have a little punt.

[textmum]

BBC weather is showing snow for glos airport from Tuesday -> Fri

Oh please let it be so, and for it to spread to Abbeymead!!

[Bristawl Si]

Latest local weather on BBC just showed rain for tonight (early hours) - a change from Ian's forecast earlier

National weather on BBC just, shows rain for us in BTL and south, but snow in the Cotswolds and s.wales

[BristolBlizzard]

Still dont think BBC really know how far south/north they snow is going to be, poor buggers lol.

Even if it goes pear shaped tomorrow still got New Years Eve/Day to look forward too.

[Lynxus]

Latest local weather on BBC just showed rain for tonight (early hours) - a change from Ian's forecast earlier

National weather on BBC just, shows rain for us in BTL and south, but snow in the Cotswolds and s.wales

I have a feeling its going to be so hard to forecast that all we can do now is wait and see & hope for the temps to drop off.

[BristolBlizzard]

Latest local weather on BBC just showed rain for tonight (early hours) - a change from Ian's forecast earlier

National weather on BBC just, shows rain for us in BTL and south, but snow in the Cotswolds and s.wales

Later on in the day they were showing snow in the West Country

Edited December 28, 2009 by BristolBlizzard

[Bristawl Si]

Later on in the day they were showing snow in the West Country

Yeah, possibly. Could be one of those horrible, raw days tomorrow with cold rain, sleet and wet snow. Hopefully later in the week will bring a good dumping of snow.

[BristolBlizzard]

I have a feeling its going to be so hard to forecast that all we can do now is wait and see & hope for the temps to drop off.

we just have to wait and see if and when the rain turns to snow .wait for sleet , snow , rain , reports to start coming in i guess

[Lynxus]

BBc weather ( the tv one ) says round here maybe further south ( once again, possibly btol ) are the places to watch.

Heres hoping!

Im scared to look at the sat images and rain fall radars.

I just dont wanna know if its going to miss lol

Edited December 28, 2009 by Lynxus

[Nights King]

we just have to wait and see if and when the rain turns to snow .wait for sleet , snow , rain , reports to start coming in i guess

I am a few miles south of all of you in bristol but at quite high altitude so if I report rain then it is time to worry. I really have no clue what will fall out of that sky although i feel it could be a sombre day if it goes the way of the pear again.

[BristolBlizzard]

BBc weather ( the tv one ) says round here maybe further south ( once again, possibly btol ) are the places to watch.

Heres hoping!

Im scared to look at the sat images and rain fall radars.

I just dont wanna know if its going to miss lol

so it look ok for bristol still

I am a few miles south of all of you in bristol but at quite high altitude so if I report rain then it is time to worry. I really have no clue what will fall out of that sky although i feel it could be a sombre day if it goes the way of the pear again.

yes lets hope you report snow . ian may be on later to help us out a bit

[Lynxus]

Humm.

Annoyingly the charts still show us for rain and the warm air.

Who knows.

Its quite worring that no charts show snow for us until friday.

[Wilxy]

Ian needs to clear things up i hate how S Wales are gunna get snow but not as much here i feel more confident that the snow may be marginal so we may get lucky.

[Ian Fergusson]

Afternoon folks.

Well, an interesting morning and doubtless tomorrow (and Wed, and Thurs) will prove equally challenging. There's a lot at stake, forecasting wise, because for some areas - some - this next bout of wintry weather could prove highly newsworthy as well as downright dangerous / disruptive.

You've doubtless seen how this morning, after further consultation through the PWS, the UKMO issued an early warning for severe (snowy) weather, applying, at present, to parts of Wales and adjoining English counties. A broader swathe of advisories (and note, these a different to warnings in the strict sense) apply to other areas - including the westcountry - albeit for differing but well-reasoned potential consequences.

Since I started work at 0355 today, I've seen and been briefed on two separate NAE runs, alongside some detailed high-res prognoses for rainfall / snowfall totals. An earlier snapshot of such UKMO Chief Forecaster briefing output is viewable on my blog today (http://bbc.co.uk/ianfergusson) for those interested - it offers a flavour of how we tweak our TV and local radio forecasts to cater for the sort of sub-regional outcome expected in the next 48hrs.

Here's the latest thinking, in summary:

RAINFALL - some heavy and in itself likely to be disruptive for some areas - is the core story for most of the westcountry overnight and into tomorrow. Localised flooding quite possible for some. The very tight WBFL gradient developing overnight on the northern flank of PPN will mean an equally tight areal discrimination from transition of rain to snow, with the WBFL typically around 200-400m but as you might expect, this will be readily dropping in heavier PPN to offer a wintry flavour. Equally, into tomorrow the surface temp variance will be extremely marked; e.g., Plymouth and much of Cornwall positively basking (despite the inclement skies and wind!) at >10C whilst up in the likes of Bristol and Glos, ambient will be closer to 3C. Either way, a drab and pretty ghastly day wherever you happen to venture.

The prospect of anything other than rain for all of lowland SW Peninsula and lowland Somerset / Dorset / Wilts is effectively tiny. High-res modelling gives around a 30% risk of snow further north over high ground of Somerset (Mendips Plateau) and upland mid-Wilts, but this risk is elastic and low confidence.

SNOWFALL - the only (westcountry) area with fairly high confidence for possibly quite potent snowfall developing tomorrow is Gloucestershire. We've been at pains to signal this on TV and in much more detail in forecasts today on BBC Glos. Specifically, the Forest of Dean looks like an area where the situation could quickly deteriorate during tomorrow (as you might have guessed, with it nestled alongside the area of most concern delineated on the UKMO Warning page). Cotswolds also look likely to take a wallop, and we've equally been at pains to warn residents there how smaller roads could become impassable and remain so for quite a time.

Snow risk elsewhere - e.g., Bristol, Bath, B&NES, S Glos - remains every bit as marginal as before (see yesterday's forum posts) but clearly, the UKMO has to play the pragmatic card and retain the existing advisories, now extended into other districts, e.g., of Wilts. Effectively, for these regions we'll be forced into a nowcast / short-range forecast and warning scenario through tomorrow, given the low confidence bounds that separate mere 'snow' from snow befitting an actual warning, versus mere advisory. Trust me, it's not plucked out of thin air - these upgrades only happen after detailed analysis and debate via PWS expertise. ]

For our (BBC) part, we've elected (rightly, I think most would agree) to highlight the snow potential for these marginal arreas rather than downplay it, because history amply demonstrates to us how the backlash of forecasting rain but not correctly forecasting disruptive snow is massive and potentially deadly; conversely, forecasting rain that never becomes promised snow largely bothers / upsets schoolkids, skiers and varied snow aficianados, but is otherwise speedily forgotten (and often a major relief for travellers).

SNOWFALL TOTALS: This might shock some other forums here (Midlands / Wales), but our new NAE run is eager to talk-up some 50cm of snow by the end of Wednesday for parts of central/SE upland Wales (and that's even without the drifting, which will be a major factor everywhere). Our best estimate for neighbouring areas such as Forest of Dean could total 20-30cm (same caveat re drifting) and more widely >10cm. Whatever the end result, a recipe for some very, very nasty conditions and some areas such as the Brecon Beacons, parts of Herefordshire etc., will be wholly impassable.

REST OF THE WEEK: Sees the frontal zone effectively stall over the same areas into Wednesday and then sink southwards and yield a moore expansive area of (perhaps disruptive) snow across much of southern England, perhaps ultimately all the way down to the south coast. Some of our modelling of the New Year's Eve events are deeply troubling, with a risk of severe weather (blizzards) into southern-central / SE England and London, which would clearly have major ramifications at a time whhen many people are either travelling or otherwise planning New Year's Eve events, etc. But that's miles away and obviously confidence is low.

If time allows, I will post on updates from the next NAE run.

Best

Ian

[Wilxy]

Humm.

Annoyingly the charts still show us for rain and the warm air.

Who knows.

Its quite worring that no charts show snow for us until friday.

But the warnings are in force over areas that are showing rain so not to worried atm,

[Lynxus]

Thanks Ian,

Thats one hell of a post & blog.

What do people class as S.glos and N.glos.

I fear im classed as S.glos however im pretty much as far north as the city centre.

Either way, Tomorrow / tonight is very interesting!

Be safe yall, Its evidently gonna be a wild one.

[dogs32]

Excellent forecast Ian...thanks for your time,must be a long day as you have been up since 4,00am

Gobsmacked you mention 50cm for some part's higher up and that's NOT drifting

That post is so interesting Im going to have to read it again

Edited December 28, 2009 by dogs32

[dancing daisy]

Thanks Ian for your forecast, you are a star!

I await with baited breath for your next forecasts as I am travelling to Cornwall from Somerset on N.Y.E morning and planning on travelling home on N.Y.D. I really cannot be trapped in Cornwall as need to be back for work, I also do not fancy a dangerous drive home.

Thanks again

[BristolBlizzard]

thanks ian , great post as always

[Bristawl Si]

Great post Ian, as normal.

I, for one, very much appreciate your time and detailed explanations on our thread.

Looks quite severe then for not far from here; hope we see some snowaction in s.glos.

[BristolBlizzard]

Cheers Ian, really good to have you on here.

Exciting and dangerous times ahead, 50cm is pretty insane for the UK.

[dogs32]

I was going to go up into the Cotsworld's tomorrow with my camera to take pic's but after reading Ian's post I think it might be a bad idea!!!

Maybe the edge of the hill's to get some pic's...walking certainly not driving

Edited December 28, 2009 by dogs32