Cold Spell Discussion

[Osbourne One-Nil]

Unfortunately they're judgements being clouded by so many previous mild winters that they think oh just go for the same old winter forecast as that's bound to be right.

You say that as if it's a fact. Perhaps they just got it wrong?

[Timmytour]

But did you see the cold weather thats affected many parts of the world (bbc news) , even india is shivering!. Me thinks after last years cold aswell the globe could well be going into a global cooling phase.

Yet, despite the relatively cold snap we had at the start, the (again relatively) disappointing summer and the cold end to it, I'm sure I read somewhere that last year was still the fourteenth warmest since records began!

I'm sure those who seems more than just enthusiastic about global warming and the part they deem man to have played in it, will surely venture forth soon with some explanation about how it is global warming that has actually caused such a widespread cold winter

[surrey slush]

Should that front not be moving by now? It seems to have been stalled for 3 hours now.

[Rob K]

Should that front not be moving by now? It seems to have been stalled for 3 hours now.

The front across the Manchester area isn't really meant to move south that much. The heavy snow for the south is modelled to come up from the south-west.

GFS high-res illustrates it well...

http://www.wzkarten3...cs/Rmgfs063.gif

http://www.wzkarten3...cs/Rmgfs093.gif

http://www.wzkarten3...cs/Rmgfs123.gif

http://www.wzkarten3...cs/Rmgfs153.gif

Notice how a large blob of heavy ppn is forecast to form to the SW and move up into the southern part of the country, while the northern band stays pretty well stationary.

New press release (with map) on the Met O site too: http://www.metoffice...pr20100105.html

Edited January 5, 2010 by Rob K

[Rob K]

yer its got stuck, anyone think surrey will see much snow and that time?

See my post at the bottom of the last page. The front over northern England is not predicted to move south much at all for a good while. The precipitation for the south of England is modelled to move up from the southwest and intensify this evening. It should reach western parts of Surrey around 7pm-9pm, but the positioning is very much up in the air.

[Jezzer]

Current conditions make this even funnier!

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/6246570/Britain-will-have-mild-winter---if-you-believe-the-Met-Office.html

[Bobby]

GFS is predicting 15-20cm for the valleys and indeed much of S. Wales while the Met Office (and met office and NAE) go for almost nothing apart from in the far SE. The big question... who is right?

[Neilsouth]

Dad just said to me " we are going to have a real blast of winter this year , just seen a mass flock of birds *Curlew* in our kent fields ". He's never seen them here before!. He also dismisses a snowy winter every year lol so this was a first :lol:

Bookmarked this post!

This post has been edited by neilsouth: 02 December 2009 - 18:45

Copy and Paste from DEC 02 :unsure: :winky:

[Bobby]

Lol the latest NAE now has just 2-5cm of snow for the supposed Met Office "Red Zone" that on the 06z NAE showed 20-35cm of snow - pretty big change eh?There is huge uncertainty still over what is going to happen - BIG surprises and BIG dissapointments to come. Don't think anyone knows what's going to happen.

[Coast]

Latest MetO advice to Government agenices in the SE:

Morning all,

An update on the weather for the next few days.

I said yesterday there was some uncertainty about today's picture and that has proved the case. The prospects look rather different than they did yesterday and there is now some reasonable concensus that the worst of the snow, from our point of view, now looks likely to be in the west of the region. An Early Warning (copy attached) was issued this morning which includes all of the Southeast region except Kent, East Sussex, Brighton and the Isle of Wight. There is though also some variation expected in the other counties.

Many of us will see some snow flurries/showers as we go through today but there is now a strong signal for some heavier snow to push into Hampshire during this evening and then up into more western parts of Berks and Oxfordshire. Areas to the east of that (Bucks, Berkshire unitaries, Surrey and West Sussex have been included in the warning due to some remaining uncertainty as to where the pulse of heavier snow will be. It will need to be watched but the risk is currently lower in thhose more eastern areas and lower still in Kent and East Sussex. Nevertheless, all areas will see some snow during today and through Wednesday and an estimate of amounts is given in the attached graphic. The more western areas could see 10-15cm by late Wednesday with a lower possibility of 25cm in a few spots (mostly falling between 1800 this evening and 0600 on Wednesday morning) while those areas on the fringes of the Early warning can expectless but locally could be still as much as 5-10cm.

For the rest of the week the focus looks likely to turn to more eastern counties with snow showers feeding across from the North Sea. Another 15cm of snow is possible, particularly in Kent and East Sussex during the latter part of the week although the extent of the area affected could be greater. Our Ops Centre are likely to issue advisories for these days and, indeed, an Early Warning is under consideration. Watch this space!

The Met Office Emergency Support website has been open since late December and the attached graphic as well as more detailed radar images can be viewed there.

I will no doubt be sending out updates on a daily basis over the rest of the week but if you need any more specific info then please give me a call

Public Weather Service Advisor, Met Office

(contact details witheld)

[Shirelord]

Lol the latest NAE now has just 2-5cm of snow for the supposed Met Office "Red Zone" that on the 06z NAE showed 20-35cm of snow - pretty big change eh?There is huge uncertainty still over what is going to happen - BIG surprises and BIG dissapointments to come. Don't think anyone knows what's going to happen.

That appears to be a chart for tomorrow though, whilst the 'red zone' will be taking the hit tonight. The MetO are forecasting an east track of the low tomorrow so that ties in well.

[derrylynne]

The system that formed over Cardigan bay seems to be heading South for South West England. Noticed the stalled front has started moving, following the track of the system from Cardigan bay. Certainly seems to be acting differently to what was expected...

[Shirelord]

The system that formed over Cardigan bay seems to be heading South for South West England. Noticed the stalled front has started moving, following the track of the system from Cardigan bay. Certainly seems to be acting differently to what was expected...

Seems bang on to me.

[sniffermark]

just looked at the bbc radar and i can see it coming in to view but looks a bit to far south at the mow!! but could start to push up...

Hmm. Wouldn't want to worry anyone but you're right. It looks a long way south. It's hard too see how that will hit the UK, looking at the radar animation.

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

Two images from the (excellent) Netweather Radar

the first at 12:55

the second at 15:45.

Notice the development that has moved from Cardigan Bay to South of Milford Haven.

I think the Pressure overlay is actually wrong here as, to me it seems that's almost a closed circulation, and I would expect the winds to be south westerly just to the south of that precipitation

[Snowmoon]

Hmm. Wouldn't want to worry anyone but you're right. It looks a long way south. It's hard too see how that will hit the UK, looking at the radar animation.

Dorset's in the current "red zone", but I can't see how anything's going to arrive there this evening based on the radar progressions. It's hard to see the more westerly band of precip that's currently moving along the Channel getting up towards London either, so maybe the METO might issue a further revision (or removal) of the red zone later??

[Neilsouth]

40cm has been downgraded to 10-14CM , national release from the met office

[Wales123098]

BBC News 24 have changed their forecast completely, an arch from Cardiff over to London of snow with a large area which was post to see heaviest snow dry

[isickle]

Latest radar shows the precipitation in the channel winding itself back northwards with red echos now showing up on the south coast. Mix of rain/sleet/snow being reported in Portsmouth area. Ian

[The Melting Snowman in Guernsey]

Hi all just to say that here in Guernsey the temp is 4C and its coming down hard !! Rain that is...............

[The PIT]

The snow over us is refusing to go away so it could be very impressive depths by morning if it keeps on.

[timboy666]

The snow over us is refusing to go away so it could be very impressive depths by morning if it keeps on.

[/qu

Edited January 5, 2010 by timboy666

[Stargazer]

Lol the latest NAE now has just 2-5cm of snow for the supposed Met Office "Red Zone" that on the 06z NAE showed 20-35cm of snow - pretty big change eh?There is huge uncertainty still over what is going to happen - BIG surprises and BIG dissapointments to come. Don't think anyone knows what's going to happen.

Couldn't help noticing that the sweet spot with an anticipated 30mm of precipitation (perhaps 30cm of lying snow) is pretty much exactly over...Abingdon At present I'm expecting to wake up to anything between 2 inches and a foot tomorrow morning here in Reading...

[wysiwyg]

Couldn't help noticing that the sweet spot with an anticipated 30mm of precipitation (perhaps 30cm of lying snow) is pretty much exactly over...Abingdon At present I'm expecting to wake up to anything between 2 inches and a foot tomorrow morning here in Reading...

It's 3 to the West of Abingdon and 0 for Abingdon I think

[da_bish]

It's 3 to the West of Abingdon and 0 for Abingdon I think

Actually you are quite correct. In Witney about 3cm has fallen and it looks like (looking at the Radar)the main stuff will miss us by 30 miles.

Which is an absolute bummer!