1536 replies to this topic

[johnholmes]

thanks for all that data Jim and also Stewart for the comments-yet again there seems not even a complicated link that suggests a way of accurately predicting several months in advance; guidance yes, which is sometimes correct and sometimes not-accurate forecasts no!

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

 Jim_AFCB, on 03 May 2012 - 18:39 , said:

Solar activity is not that low at the moment. Granted it's not at the heights that it was at the last three solar maxima, but current average sunspot numbers are many times higher than they were at solar minimum (2006-10), when it was zero for days on end at times.

The summers of 1975 and 1976 came during the solar minimum between cycles 20 and 21, and 1995 also occurred during a solar mimimum. Solar activity now is much higher than any of those occasions I have mentioned.
1980 was a stinker of a summer - solar maximum. I could go on....

IMHO talk of "low solar activity" is a red herring.

Solar activity is running at or below SC5.....it is very low currently and it may be at its maxima.



BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST, 03 May 2012 - 22:11 .

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

 Glacier Point, on 03 May 2012 - 21:17 , said:

There won't be a pattern there Jim, the QBO / solar modulation will completely scramble the signal.

As a further context to the last few weeks, comparison with April - May periods when we came out of a prolonged Nina phase..

Last 30 days: 500z_30a.fnl (2).jpg

Nina transitions (1951 and 2001): april may nina nino transition (2).jpg

Note the strong blocking signal present over Hudson Bay there.

Stew
That looks like a cool pattern to me and may be around a while

BFTP

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

ECM keen on keeping the heights to our NW and winds from N to E quadrant to dominate.........pity it wasn't DJF!!?

BFTP

[ledders69]

According to Gavin P he checked the CFSv2 and apparently El Niño is going to influence our Summer weather, so I would say that compiled with the sea ice melt and possibly a rising sunspot number that we should have a warmer than average Summer. Although like GP has mentioned we will have bumpy bits too.

[lorenzo]

GP any update on where you see May going, will it begin a flip c24th or will this be a longer transition into June..

Mr Yosemite?

Edited by lorenzo, 05 May 2012 - 22:40 .

[ledders69]

It would appear that the AO and NAO has gone negative on the latest ECM charts, GP was wonderlng what the state of the PV is? as it may be breaking up faster than anticapated. Mind you solar activity has risen too, so perhaps the flares are interfering slightly with the rate of break up. Would presume that angular momentum has fallen again.

[skifreak]

What do people think of this from MWIS (Mountain Weather Information Service), is there teleconnection backup to this ?

Quote

Further gales and showers across all mountain areas early next week, and still snow on higher summits, widely in
Scotland.

In the longer term, there is evidence that the unseasonal cold will continue for much of the month, with overall snow-melt
in Scotland being very slow, and further fresh snowfalls likely.

This morning:

Edited by skifreak, 11 May 2012 - 08:32 .

[johnholmes]

the man behind the forecast service is Geoff Monk a well respected ex Met O forecaster, so I would take whatever Geoff says as being as close to reality as anything you can get.
I see nothing other than the odd day or two to alter the current set up for at least 2 if not 3 weeks ahead, although the 500mb ECMWF-GFS issue this morning has a ? over that. But its only the ECMWF version and its only one issue. Unless there is much more evidence to support this, from itself and the other two 500mb anomaly charts then it may well be just a blip.

[ledders69]

Looks like in FI that the AO may go positive and GP have you any info on the angular momentum at all?

[ledders69]

Had a browse at the angular momentum and the good news is its rising so hopefully some warmer weather with some more respectable temperatures should or ought to be on their way soon.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

ledders69, on 15 May 2012 - 00:51 , said:

Had a browse at the angular momentum and the good news is its rising so hopefully some warmer weather with some more respectable temperatures should or ought to be on their way soon.

Soon? May has remained and looks like remaining on the chilly side for the forseeable as suspected. I think warmth will be welcome when it arrives.

BFTP

[ledders69]

The angular momentum seems to have stalled a bit now but the last ingredient is the GWO and I do not know what it is to be honest. It does seem quite likely now on ECM that winds are coming from the east or south, so something a bit warmer although quite a messy indicator to be honest.

[ledders69]

Signs now are very favourable for a scandanavian ridge meaning the trough that has plagued us somewhat throughout the past 4-6 weeks westwards. Wondering now if the GWO is in a Nino state or approaching it GP? as that would be very encouraging signs indeed.

[ledders69]

Looking like basically a mainly high pressure situation for the next 6-14 days with winds mainly coming from the continent, and according to the ensembles too.

[Solar Sausage]

BLAST FROM THE PAST, on 15 May 2012 - 10:06 , said:

Soon? May has remained and looks like remaining on the chilly side for the forseeable as suspected. I think warmth will be welcome when it arrives.

BFTP

That's what six days can do...But, you're right enough, Fred, warmth is indeed welcome!

[damianslaw]

Would be interested to hear about upstream pattern projections as we enter June, MJO cycle, jetstream position, NAO/AO, teleconnections etc etc... such discussion seems to go dead at this time of year. Reading thoughts a week or so ago, suggested these weren't looking that great for a sustained dry warm sunny spell, however, the models at the moment don't suggest this..

Are we just seeing a temporary break from the pattern of the last 7 weeks, or is this likely to be the start of a more pronounced pattern change?

Late May/Early June often delivers a see-saw of synoptics, can't recall many occasion where a high pressure has dominated through the latter part of May and then well into June.