Cold Spell Discussion 5

[kold weather]

Carry on the discussion here!

[Mondy]

What cold spell? Already had two -7's here this year

[snowlover2009]

didnt know where to post this, but what does this mean to you it was posted to me by PM and i dont have a clue what he means

'So crazy that post. Its not saying anything untrue at all, Solar output which i study is having huge effect on our climate. Solar max took our 80s winter away. Solar min with the lag has brought it back. This was forecast from summer this year and on here to read - now that may be crazy.

Go read the uk Northwest europe forum in climate change and perhaps you will see there is much more than GFS playing the right tune. I know models change in fi but that statement not just about models.

Not going to argue about it, chat again in two weeks time '

i havent a clue what he is referring to?

it was posted to me by someone called pyzotech or something?

anyway on topic that parallel and gfs, well i dont know which one i would want, but if i flipped a coin, either would be good.

[dogs32]

wow...very cold for the 17th

get your woolies out

Edited December 9, 2009 by dogs32

[Nights King]

nice to see the snow risk is around 30% from sat/sun then 50% on monday on local 7 days.

happy days

[Lewis]

The snowfall in feb that im referring to didn't occur during the E,ly with those cold upper temps. The only snowfall that fell during that Sunday evening was the thames streamer that affected parts of london.

Here is the period im referring to and if you bothered to look at my sig you will note the 5th Feb!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/2009/Rrea00220090205.gif

Come on OP look at this objectively!

Edit I can't see mucn green on this chart.

Haha Lovely! you tell him my friend.

Totally agree with you mate, i remember back then.

All this marginal talk worries me although its far too early to talk about whether or not areas will be marginal, but i do worry as when marginal is mentioned, it always means my area I dont wanna see rain lol

[Optimus Prime]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/2009/Rrea00220090205.gif

Come on OP look at this objectively!

Edit I can't see mucn green on this chart.

Yep I got some overnight rain/heavy snow from that. But we already had the cold over us from the 29th January? And after a generally cold January for many the cold air had little warm air to be mixed in. Hence the reasoning behind those unbelievable temperatures in 81 (max about -4c here falling to -14c)

What we have here is a cold spell over a warm land and sea. We've just come out of the mildest November since '94. It ain't gonna be like coming out of a November like '93.

[kold weather]

Low pressure moving away into the north sea now and we should start to see pressure building quite rapidly to our south over the next 24hrs with a steady cooldown occuring. Think frost will present for some on Thursday night, fog will also IMO be a big issue.

[TEITS]

What we have here is a cold spell over a warm land and sea. We've just come out of the mildest November since '94. It ain't gonna be like coming out of a November like '93.

The warm land means nothing because land can cool rapidly. As for the warm sea this can actually be a bonus if the upper temps are cold enough due to the greater convection. Infact if we do see upper temps of between -10/-13C then thunder and lightning could be possible.

Still to be honest its pointless wondering about this until the picture becomes clearer.

[NorthantsSnow]

In all the excitement of the 18z...I completely missed the 10:30pm BBC forecast. (after dubbing it "unmissable" earlier)

Any teases from Rob?

[TEITS]

That's the post of the day IMO.

Yes but Tamara is voicing her concerns about S England. When I post about the model output im looking at the UK as a whole and not just my own location. I appreciate that not all members live in Cambs.

I've now missed a session on MW2 due to this pesky SW. :lol:

[karyo]

I just can't wait until the Tabloids pick up on the possible "deep freeze"

As IMHO we are certain to get at least a week of "Arctic Britain"

I am looking forward to the tabloids! This will take the emphasis from the climate change summit and those front page pictures of melting ice caps under a red sun! lol

By the way, the net weather ensembles are still showing 06z! Can somebody please fix that?

Thanks

Karyo

[damianslaw]

In all the excitement of the 18z...I completely missed the 10:30pm BBC forecast. (after dubbing it "unmissable" earlier) :lol:

Any teases from Rob?

No he just went out to Sunday, but you sensed he wanted to at the end of the forecast. In fact he had a grin on his face throughout the forecast, a sort of knowingness that 'interesting cold times are afoot', I hope he does the forecast in the coming days, he is one of the braver forecasters and often sticks his neck out - he loves the cold and snow. Though he did say that the 'weather warning' forecast for N England in the form of heavy rain this eve would likely be the last for 'weeks' - does he know something we don't i.e. we are going to see a very long lasting dry spell..

However, on BBC this morning they were already mentioning the prospects of snow next week.

Back to the prospects for next week - some people are already moaning it seems that a North Easterly rather than direct easterly is being shown - I'm not from a biased view a NE would deliver much greater goods here in Cumbria than an easterly - expect alot more biased opinion based on location creeping into the posts in the coming days.With a North Easterly there is always potential for a northerly to develop and polar lows which for Scotland and N England and N Ireland is where coldest and snowiest conditions occur, southerners like there easterlies..us northerners prefer northerlies and north easterlies.

[Nights King]

No he just went out to Sunday, but you sensed he wanted to at the end of the forecast. In fact he had a grin on his face throughout the forecast, a sort of knowingness that 'interesting cold times are afoot', I hope he does the forecast in the coming days, he is one of the braver forecasters and often sticks his neck out - he loves the cold and snow. Though he did say that the 'weather warning' forecast for N England in the form of heavy rain this eve would likely be the last for 'weeks' - does he know something we don't i.e. we are going to see a very long lasting dry spell..

However, on BBC this morning they were already mentioning the prospects of snow next week.

Back to the prospects for next week - some people are already moaning it seems that a North Easterly rather than direct easterly is being shown - I'm not from a biased view a NE would deliver much greater goods here in Cumbria than an easterly - expect alot more biased opinion based on location creeping into the posts in the coming days.With a North Easterly there is always potential for a northerly to develop and polar lows which for Scotland and N England and N Ireland is where coldest and snowiest conditions occur, southerners like there easterlies..us northerners prefer northerlies and north easterlies.

lol and i don't mind either as long as we get a chanel low moving up into west country at some point

As long as that cold air stays i dont mind which direction it is from.

[dogs32]

Am I reading this correctly is there a slight or big downgrade taking place right now on the charts

[Paul Sherman]

Am I reading this correctly is there a slight or big downgrade taking place right now on the charts

Reckon it will be a MODERATE By Next Thursday Pat! :lol:

And could we possibly see a HIGH

[stewfox]

No he just went out to Sunday, but you sensed he wanted to at the end of the forecast. In fact he had a grin on his face throughout the forecast, a sort of knowingness that 'interesting cold times are afoot', I hope he does the forecast in the coming days, he is one of the braver forecasters and often sticks his neck out - he loves the cold and snow. Though he did say that the 'weather warning' forecast for N England in the form of heavy rain this eve would likely be the last for 'weeks' - does he know something we don't i.e. we are going to see a very long lasting dry spell..

However, on BBC this morning they were already mentioning the prospects of snow next week.

Yes you felt he almost wanted to, but they kept it into the reliable time frame ie end sunday

I suggest his comment re no more heavy rain could suggest it falls as snow.

Anyway the BBC wont say anything about next week until another 48hrs, which to be fair they have to careful.

We can talk 20ft snow drifts at T240 but if the BBC did that we would have no Tomato soup left on the shelfs at Tesco

Anyone want to buy a de icing businesss went bust in November ?

[dogs32]

Reckon it will be a MODERATE By Next Thursday Pat! :lol:

And could we possibly see a HIGH

:lol: lol...cheers...

I thought I could be looking into this to much...next thing I will be be seeing snownado's..lol

[Paul Sherman]

Lol

For those Old Enough, when we got Severe Snowy Winters in 1981, 1982, 1984, 1985, 1986, 1987 the big fashion trend setters were Moon Boots, anyone remember those, they were great rather like the up to date Uggs but with a chavvy plasticy look to em, great for the snow that laid around for weeks on end, now if someone had a stockpile of Moon Boots and cheap plastic sledges in 4 different colours you might just make a killing over the next 14 days :lol:

[dogs32]

my sister had a silver pair of them.

Yes your right Paul in those days we nearly always had a decent snow fall.

they were the days...blizzard's lol

I can remember the temp hitting around -20 in one year.

Edited December 10, 2009 by dogs32

[Snow Queen one]

I left the forum for an hour and all seems to be lost for me i have now gone from being in the firing line to being on the warm side of a low missing out on the projected snow. Even with charts like these i feel i am missing out again i said it was too good to be true. I hope this run can be binned and we see the low being driven south. Night all may tommorrow bring the SE a better chance than tonight

[Schnee]

As with any up and coming cold spell, I find it best to keep out of this thread... :lol:

Snow frenzy to rain frenzy to snow....my blood pressure can't take it!!!!

[Snow Queen one]

Well i will post in here my dissapointment with the 18z. That low seems to be on the verge of spoiling it for me i will not be lucky and see early snow from that. I remember 1987 and had high hope for it to happen this year but alas i am not to be rewarded. I jinxed myself by allowing myself to believe the charts and although it is only one run some of the more expert forcasters do seem to agree that the SE will miss out yet again. Great for the rest of the country just not us.

[Duane S.]

I left the forum for an hour and all seems to be lost for me i have now gone from being in the firing line to being on the warm side of a low missing out on the projected snow. Even with charts like these i feel i am missing out again i said it was too good to be true. I hope this run can be binned and we see the low being driven south. Night all may tommorrow bring the SE a better chance than tonight

Seriously, when will people ever learn to stop fretting over this run and that run. It won't turn out like this! :lol:

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

Ironically there was a rare temporary power loss for a little while in my local area just after my last post (and on one of the calmest evenings in ages! ) but I had wanted to add that my own speculations as said in terms of the extent of the arctic air over the UK as a whole were within the context of the current model possibilities - but as I have mentioned so often, the overall synoptics are the best seen in many years and any pitfalls that exist also are/were purely existant within the domain of yesteryear in terms of possibility and nothing to do with any supposed even larger teapot voodoo to which I have never subscribed as most will know

Another exciting day beckons tomorrow I am sure!