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Posted
  • Location: Bognor Regis West Sussex
  • Location: Bognor Regis West Sussex

Interesting weather around today, some lovely rainbows among the turbulent clouds.

Wind has been F9 gusting F10 this morning with a maximum gust at 11:30am of 55 knot/63mph.

Saw road works barriers being blown across the road. Fortunately only on a small side road or it could have been dangerous.

I hope everyone on the M27 between Southampton and Portsmouth takes care.

Temperature is 9C, pressure 981 and 98% humidity.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne
  • Location: Eastbourne

Had heavy rain form late afternoon until late evening then beefy shower in early hours - nothing since except cloud.

Just waiting for the convective arms to swirl up from the S-SW as this impressive LP tracks slowly east...some heavy showers approaching Brighton coast...hopefully some here within 2 hours

Edited by MR CB
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Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)

This is perhaps one of the most stunning radar loops I've ever seen - IMO, more aesthetically pleasing than any Hurricane I've seen!!

Problem at the moment is the swirl is taking the best of the action away from me - hopefully that will change.

post-3790-1259499990608_thumb.png

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

This is perhaps one of the most stunning radar loops I've ever seen - IMO, more aesthetically pleasing than any Hurricane I've seen!!

Problem at the moment is the swirl is taking the best of the action away from me - hopefully that will change.

It is impressive I must admit.

Raining pretty much most vof the day here, had a little bit of hail earlier though.

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Posted
  • Location: Near Horsham, West Sussex
  • Location: Near Horsham, West Sussex

quick question how are you meant to read the net weather radar? Is it showing whats coming within the next few mins or does it show what has gone ?

*dum question* but I just signed up to viewing the radar and im totally confused!!

Edited by Westsussex1
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Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)

quick question how are you meant to read the net weather radar? Is it showing whats coming within the next few mins or does it show what has gone ?

*dum question* but I just signed up to viewing the radar and im totally confused!!

If you look at the little clock in the top left hand corner, it tells you. It does have this feature (which is quite inaccurate IMO) where it will take the latest loop, and anticipate where its heading. If in doubt however, check the clock at the top left.

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Posted
  • Location: southampton uk
  • Location: southampton uk

wow that looks good exsplaines the hail and winds we have be haven today a bit brighter here now a few clouds to my west but nothing like it was hope some of u to my east get some good showers from the ones i had earler in the day.

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Posted
  • Location: Bradley Stoke, South Glos. & Panshanger, Herts
  • Location: Bradley Stoke, South Glos. & Panshanger, Herts

Perhaps this has been reported elsewhere on the forum (apols if so), but today's spiral of deep convective clusters has produced a funnel report to the MetO Ops Centre from Bracknell, Berks (presently unconfirmed but certainly credible - as I can attest having driven beneath some impressive cloudbase lowerings near Reading and elsewhere on the M4 back to Bristol today). The MO's tornado diagnostic modelling for today places the likelihood as "moderate (isolated)", albeit I'd imagine the Bracknell report won't actually be in isolation...

Edited by Ian Fergusson
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Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)

Perhaps this has been reported elsewhere on the forum (apols if so), but today's spiral of deep convective clusters has produced a funnel report to the MetO Ops Centre from Bracknell, Berks (presently unconfirmed but certainly credible - as I can attest having driven beneath some impressive cloudbase lowerings near Reading and elsewhere on the M4 back to Bristol today). The MO's tornado diagnostic modelling for today places the likelihood as "moderate (isolated)", albeit I'd imagine the Bracknell report won't actually be in isolation...

Awesome - thanks for the info Ian! Hope nobody was hurt.

Skies very black here again, though radar returns not exactly jumping up at me. Hopefully as night fall approaches, might get the odd flash of lightning. I note from various forecasts the thunderstorm risk decreases slightly through the afternoon and into the evening, though there was talk on Estofex that troughs through the evening could produce further storm activity.

Quick question as I have never seen one like it before - does the trough which resembles a stick insect to the SW of the UK (see FAX chart T+24) have any significance??

EDIT - Just taken some more pics - the Cbs are spectacular. The ones just rolling past had some defined hailshafts against a black/blue background along with a large anvil. Just gobsmacked I didn't see lightning. Wont be able to upload until Tuesday though when I have a cable.

Edited by Harry
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Posted
  • Location: Maidstone, Kent
  • Location: Maidstone, Kent

Quick question as I have never seen one like it before - does the trough which resembles a stick insect to the SW of the UK (see FAX chart T+24) have any significance??

lol - it's a convergence zone down the middle of the Irish Sea. :yahoo:

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Posted
  • Location: Bradley Stoke, South Glos. & Panshanger, Herts
  • Location: Bradley Stoke, South Glos. & Panshanger, Herts

Awesome - thanks for the info Ian! Hope nobody was hurt.

Skies very black here again, though radar returns not exactly jumping up at me. Hopefully as night fall approaches, might get the odd flash of lightning. I note from various forecasts the thunderstorm risk decreases slightly through the afternoon and into the evening, though there was talk on Estofex that troughs through the evening could produce further storm activity.

Quick question as I have never seen one like it before - does the trough which resembles a stick insect to the SW of the UK (see FAX chart T+24) have any significance??

As far as I'm aware, the Bracknell report was merely a funnel cloud, not a tornado - so I doubt any damage / injuries.

Lightning possible, albeit the SFERICS haven't been especially lively thus-far across most districts. e.g., Very latest (only!) inland flash recorded on the MO's ATDNet 5-min system that I can see was ca. 2km ESE of Hedge End, near S'Hampton, a few mins ago.

The ESTOFEX summary uses broadscale / lower resolution data to the best of my knowledge (probably GFS above most other models); the very latest NAE and 4km UKMO output I've just received continues to paint a very wet story this afternoon in the NE and N. Wales; some beefy showers in parts of the midlands; plus a distinct core of deep convection continuing to spiral around the low centre as it moves along the M4 corridor. Thus further heavy downpours / potential isolated tornadic reports possible within this, in the likes of Wilts/Glos/ Oxon/Berks/Hants and environs before it all loses some forcing diaurnally and tend to fade into more 'low-grade' showers for most parts later this evening and overnight.... albeit with the core heavier ppn circulating alongside the low still very evident on the modelling, even by 06Z tomorrow.

By then, further quite heavy ppn feeds back southwestwards as showery clusters through the Wash and into parts of Lincs / Notts / Midlands / East Anglia. Some quite strong winds gusting to 50kts or so will be conspicuous in southern-central England tomorrow mornming, too. By circa 13Z tomorrow we anticipate the low to have slipped away off the SE coast taking pretty much all the ppn with it, bar the last showers still in parts of Kent and extreme SE; some continuing also up in the NE.

Cheers

Ian

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

Great input from Ian Fergusson thanks, this compliments the already superb information from the site forecast team and gives us some 'inside info' on this interesting area of weather. :rolleyes:

What are the others saying about today?

post-6667-12595703861468_thumb.gif

Storm Forecast

Valid: Mon 30 Nov 2009 06:00 to Tue 01 Dec 2009 06:00 UTC

Issued: Sun 29 Nov 2009 18:37

Forecaster: TUSCHY

A level 1 was issued for NE-Italy, NW Slovenia and the east-coast of the Adriatic Sea mainly for excessive rainfall, severe wind gusts, large hail and tornadoes.

A level 1 was issued for extreme SW-France/N-Spain mainly for severe wind gusts and to a lesser extent for large hail and tornadoes.

SYNOPSIS

A significant trough enters the Mediterranean from the west. Widespread convection is expected in the range of this trough, affecting most of west/central and south Europe. WAA downstream of this trough keeps the atmosphere warm but stable over SE/E-Europe.

DISCUSSION

... English Channel ...

A cold-core vortex over the Channel moves onshore over N-France until noon. A few thunderstorms are possible until the late afternoon hours. Some LL CAPE and LL shear overlap, so an isolated funnel/tornado event is possible next to marginal hail and strong wind gusts. Expected coverage is too low for a level 1. Convection weakens onshore as LL moisture support decays.

TORRO still have the weekends forecast up currently and the UKASF have:

71e9a5c80c30d77baab7c7af7e59b2f8.png

Storm Forecast Issued: 2009-11-29 15:53:00

Valid: 2009-11-29 23:00:00 - 2009-11-30 22:59:00

Regions Affected

East Anglia, Southeast & Central Southern England and Shetland (eastern Scotland, southeast Wales, eastern England and Southwest England are included in the WATCH)

Synopsis

An area of LOW pressure moving slowly eastwards across southern England, followed by a ridge of HIGH pressure, will dominate the weather across the United Kingdom on Monday.

Ahead of an occlusion, situated over Wales and Northern England at the start of this forecast period, numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected to continue to affect southeastern/central southern England and East Anglia through the night and morning hours. Hail seems likely given the cold airmass present, and there is a slight risk of a funnel or weak tornado development. The risk of electrical activity rapidly decreases during the afternoon hours as the occlusion approaches these regions.

Most other places will remain largely dry due to the ridge of HIGH pressure. However, there is good agreement for a convergence zone to develop along the Irish Sea, and is likely to be located here for much of the day. Due to a rise in pressure, cloud heights don't appear to be high enough for electrical activity, and thus only a WATCH level has been issued here. However, a brief convergence-type funnel is possible.

Across other eastern coastal counties of England and Scotland, scattered showers are expected to develop, largely due to the difference in sea surface and land temperatures. Cloud heights will be limited here, though there is a chance of electrical activity to occur, particularly in the North Sea and around Shetland. These showers are likely to be quite wintry in nature.

So I might be luck today. Models, charts, pictures and do-dabs:

21OWS_EUROPE_FITL_THUNDERSTORM-STANDARD_36.GIF

21OWS_EUROPE_MODEL-DATA_UKMO-GLOBAL_TS-THREAT_SFC_12_00Z.png

Rtavn1211.png

gfs_spout_eur12.png

gfs_stp_eur12.png

gfs_srh_eur12.png

LOC_20091130_0300.png

ASII_20091130_0800.png

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Posted
  • Location: Lee, London. SE12, 41 mts. 134.5 ft asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snowy Weather
  • Location: Lee, London. SE12, 41 mts. 134.5 ft asl.

A brief respite tomorrow as a ridge crosses the country but remaining unsettled for the rest of the week with plenty of rain about, with flooding a concern again in some places. The south coast, which has had a fair amount of thundery showers for the last four days or so, could be in for a repeat scenario mid-week. Low pressure stalling close to western districts could throw up some convective activity from the Channel again, enhanced by a few troughs during Weds/Thurs.

http://cirrus.netweather.tv/fax/PPVJ89.png

http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20091130/06/57/ukprec.png

http://cirrus.netweather.tv/fax/PPVK89.png

Regards,

Tom.

Edited by TomSE20
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Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)

Jay Wynne spoke of a risk of thunder from the trough which is going to rattle across parts of England and possibly Wales tomorrow.

GFS certainly didnt look overly hopeful earlier - though post front troughs as we know can often be more potent than charts suggest.

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Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)

It's been so nice to have a calm day for once LOL!.....even had our 1st frost.

It'll be the last for a while by the looks of the charts too :pardon: which suits me, hate the cold!!!

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Posted
  • Location: Tonbridge,Kent
  • Location: Tonbridge,Kent

It'll be the last for a while by the looks of the charts too :drinks: which suits me, hate the cold!!!

Know what you mean Harry,and it gets worse as you get older lol,a tad off topic but the old man sent some pics the northern lights to me and one shot has the temp gauge in it,sod scraping the windscreen off in that,they are from Yellowknife in Canada :pardon::yahoo:(think last winter)

post-8172-12597044633193_thumb.jpg

post-8172-12597044913077_thumb.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

No severe weather anticipated, but a risk of thunderstorms for southern counties tomorrow as an unstable Serly flow brings convection onshore - welcome back another convective day :crazy:

N-W forecast: http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=convective;sess=e30b23344a164ea324a3067696d14acf

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

a risk of thunderstorms for southern counties tomorrow as an unstable Serly flow brings convection onshore - welcome back another convective day :whistling:

:clap:

ESTOFEX in line with those comments from Nick and selfishly, that means me!

post-6667-1259742066276_thumb.gif

Storm Forecast

Valid: Wed 02 Dec 2009 06:00 to Thu 03 Dec 2009 06:00 UTC

Issued: Tue 01 Dec 2009 22:44

Forecaster: PUCIK

SYNOPSIS

Rather complex synoptic pattern is forecast for Europe. A highly amplified trough, stretching from Scandinavia to the Central Mediterranean, will move eastwards, slowly decaying and transforming into a cut-off low over the Aeagen Sea by Thursday morning. Strong mid and upper level jet-max is forecast around its southern flank. To the west, in a prevailing northwesterly steering flow over the Atlantic, an amplifying trough will make its way towards Western Europe with its base located over Spain by Thursday 06Z.

TORRO have nothing yet, UKASF have:

7cb85d37ce3b93534062596b1d4c1b9b.png

Storm Forecast Issued: 2009-12-01 22:38:00

Valid: 2009-12-01 23:00:00 - 2009-12-02 22:59:00

Regions Affected

East Anglia, Southern England, Wales, western Scotland, Shetland and parts of Northern Ireland/Ireland (all of the UK is included in the WATCH)

Synopsis

An area of LOW pressure to the west/northwest of the United Kingdom will dominate the weather across the United Kingdom on Wednesday. Behind an eastward-moving cold front, which will exit the east coast into the North Sea around 09z, numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms will develop due to various troughs and convergence zones.

Given the Polar Maritime airmass, some of the showers will contain hail and possibly a weak funnel or tornado. Prolonged and frequent heavy downpours may cause local flooding on already saturated ground, especially southeastern counties of England.

Showers will persist through the evening and night hours across many western and southern counties.

Kaye Forster on BBC South East Today forecast at 7.00am, mentioned thunder and lightning in our region late afternoon - here's the charts:

21OWS_EUROPE_FITL_THUNDERSTORM-STANDARD_42.GIF

21OWS_EUROPE_MODEL-DATA_UKMO-GLOBAL_TS-THREAT_SFC_42_00Z.png

PGNE14_CL.gif

gfs_cape_eur18.png

gfs_kili_eur18.png

gfs_spout_eur18.png

gfs_stp_eur18.png

I had to use all my bestest crayons on this one.......

LOC_20091201_2100.png

ASII_20091202_0745.png

Bournemouth to Hastings today I reckon :angry:

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

Already a few Sferics starting off the Southern Ireland/Western Cornwall coast on the approaches to The Channel.

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Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)

I'm situated just inside pretty much all of those zones!! :D

I think Canterbury/Faversham area will probably be the best inland place to be later on this afternoon/tonight, whereas I may be lucky to see the flashing/lightning from my location.

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