CRU E-mails and data

[VillagePlank]

I blame my old Maths Master, a very clever man indeed who used to wander silently through class waiting for an opportunity to catch you day dreaming out the window; bringing his yard stick down heavily and silently from behind on your desk, missing fingers by millimetres. Computer babble, logarithms, algebra...my brain's on the lookout for Mr. Easterbrook.

Yes, there is a lot to be said for clever people who make poor teachers hence perpetuating the myth that mathematics is hard, opaque, and difficult to understand. Anyone remember SOH CAH TOA?

[johnholmes]

oh yes indeed

In the Met O, before things like computers, hand held or larger, they were de rigour for all staff-used to work out from dry and wet bulb temperatures such exotics as VP (not the one above!) vapour pressure, relative humidity, and from those the dewpoint, with the clever bit when the wet bulb was frozen!

re this VP

SOH CAH TOA

should but can't or possibly won't come to mind

Edited November 25, 2009 by johnholmes

[VillagePlank]

Had a slide rule too, remember those?

Still use mine; it can still be faster than using a computer for the odd thing or two - perhaps surprisingly.

re this VP

SOH CAH TOA

should but can't or possibly won't come to mind

Sine = opposite over hypotenuse

Cosine = adjacent over hypotenuse

Tan = opposite over adjacent

Edited November 25, 2009 by VillagePlank

[BUSHY]

Watch ---- http://www.youtube.c...oDtqS-A&feature The second half reflects how the pushing of peer review as a tactic has been effective -- bearing in mind how the process has been hijacked as revealed in the e-mails.

Edited November 25, 2009 by BUSHY

[johnholmes]

Still use mine; it can still be faster than using a computer for the odd thing or two - perhaps surprisingly.

Sine = opposite over hypotenuse

Cosine = adjacent over hypotenuse

Tan = opposite over adjacent

but of course young chap-just teasing!

[VillagePlank]

VP ... vapour pressure

Are you implying that I am all hot air? (vapour under pressure and all that) Didn't actually mean that, just thought that misrepresenting a post by someone else would be a handy link to get us back on topic ....

[osmposm]

I think that his post is ill-founded, to be honest. He starts off by describing the hack as a 'serious blow'. A what? In my view this is a tacit admission that he is, effectively, at 'war', or, at least in 'battle' with all those evil miscreants who dare to either question what he says, or, the worst thing of all: disagree with his views.

That doesn't strike me as someone searching for the truth - that strikes me (sorry - keeping with the 'blow' metaphor, here) as someone disseminating propaganda on the basis of an immutable dogma.

Quite agree with you about Monbiot, seemingly an emotional flip-flopper rather than a calm seeker of truth. It's all bellicose 'triumph or disaster' stuff: right now he reminds me of some dictator ordering the execution of an incompetent or 'cowardly' general. (And Barrie [Laserguy], if you're reading, I think he has been linked to more than once here by your opposition, so bang goes my theory about who's guilty of pointless linking to extremist viewpoints - thanks v much for your PM, by the way.)

I guess the only help I'd be able to give is to start here: Codd, 1970; but you may need a book on set-theory to get the most out of it.

You're very kind, VP, but life (especially mine - 58 & a smoker) is too short .

I try not to technobabble, Osmposm, honest I do, but there are times when you have to use the jargon for precision and brevity. I will try to provide a glossary in future, but there is always Google.

"Legacy systems" means old software running on old computers and accessories - software that is likely not to run properly on current systems - many modern computers have replaced serial and parallel ports with USB (Universal Serial Bus) ports, so old accessories like backup tapes may not be readily attached to new computers. The drivers and backup installation software may be on floppy disks - when can you find floppy disk drives on new computers nowadays? Unix-type operating systems (like Linux distributions) may be more immune to these situations than Windows Operating Systems(OSs), which seem to exclude some legacy software and hardware with each version change.

Consider it like cleaning out an old room that you haven't been in for years; going through old photos, books, trashing some of the stuff, finding the good stuff - and then redecorating the room with a complete new approach. Still, the same room, still the same capacity - but it's clean and tidy, and you're not falling over old junk to open the window to let some fresh air in....

Thanks, guys, that's very clear and helpful. I'd sort of got the drift - and was/am, in broad terms, very interested in the problem & its consequences. I even knew what "legacy systems" (and USB ports!) were. I think it was the "SQL....RDBMS....StdDev....StdDevP" sequence that finally defeated me, though on reflection I guess that 'StdDev' may mean 'Standard Deviation'.

'StdDevP' obviously means 'Stupid Devonian Post' (sorry - and I don't mean it - Dev !)

Still use mine; it can still be faster than using a computer for the odd thing or two - perhaps surprisingly.

Sine = opposite over hypotenuse

Cosine = adjacent over hypotenuse

Tan = opposite over adjacent

Hee-hee...I actually knew and remembered SOH/CAH/TOA. In fact, I'm so old that I recall the mnemonic of the generation before (already obsolete in my day), "Some People Have Curly Brown Hair, Try to Paint it Black" - Sine - Perpendicular over Hypoteneuse, Cosine - Base over Hypoteneuse, Tan - Perpendicular over Base.

Trigonometry and simpler algebra was about the limit of my understanding of 'why?' as well as 'how?' in maths, but in a non-mathematical life I've seldom used it since. By the time I moved on to Calculus, Differentiation/Integration, Parameters etc etc, much of the 'why?' went over my head too (I blame the teachers, who didn't seem to understand my question).

I still own my slide rule, but as an aesthetically/historically interesting object, not a tool - rather like my Sinclair Cambridge calculator.

Sorry, mods et al, gone off one one here, way off-topic......should we have dedicated thread in the Lounge, perhaps "Failed Old Mathematicians' Corner"?

Ossie

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

If perception matters, those involved are becoming a bit of a laughing stock.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nEiLgbBGKVk

[Methuselah]

My sceptic side quite enjoyed that...

[Essan]

If perception matters, those involved are becoming a bit of a laughing stock.

That's brilliant :help: Should be Christmas No.1 !

[Solar Cycles]

If perception matters, those involved are becoming a bit of a laughing stock.

http://www.youtube.c...h?v=nEiLgbBGKVk

I hope Dev doesn't see this!!

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

Devonian might like to provide a rational, let's say "skeptical" perhaps?, explanation for this piece of code

valadj=[0.,0.,0.,0.,0.,-0.1,-0.25,-0.3,0.,-0.1,0.3,0.8,1.2,1.7,2.5,2.6,2.6,$
2.6,2.6,2.6]*0.75 ; fudge factor

fudge factor

and this data file

resid-fudge.dat

like X-Factor but with more fudge.

Edited November 25, 2009 by AtlanticFlamethrower

[johnholmes]

should we have dedicated thread in the Lounge, perhaps "Failed Old Mathematicians' Corner"?

Ossie

what a great idea

[PersianPaladin]

Hot 'Climategate' debate: Scientists clash LIVE on RT

I find it hilarious that they allow Piers Corbyn on. It really makes "solar" skeptics look rather....laughable. It is a shame though for genuine skepticism.

Edited November 25, 2009 by PersianPaladin

[Admiral_Bobski]

Hot 'Climategate' debate: Scientists clash LIVE on RT

I find it hilarious that they allow Piers Corbyn on. It really makes skeptics look rather....laughable.

Aaargh!! I can understand Pros getting infuriated with reporting as shoddy as that! I only watched the first minute or so before the first glaring error appeared.

The presenter said that an email showed that a "trick" had been employed "to hide the fact that global temperatures are not increasing." If anyone had bothered to actually do any homework they would find that that email was dated 16th November 1999. It is therefore nothing to do with post-2000 temperature stasis, and at the time the email was written the average global temperature was still very much in an upward trend (despite 1999 being cooler globally than 1998).

The "report" (which I put in quotes because I hardly think it reaches the standard of a true piece of journalistic reporting) is clearly suggesting that this is a recent comment intended to disguise the current stasis in temperatures.

Skeptics really are going to get nowhere if they start spouting this kind of cr@p!

I think I'd better go away somewhere and shake my head in dismay...

CB

[Methuselah]

I agree, PP...Corbyn sounds like an eejit!

[PersianPaladin]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/paulhudson/

His take.

[smith25]

Looks like this could be much worse than first thought as New Zealand’s NIWA accused of CRU-style temperature faking!!!!:

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/11/25/uh-oh-raw-data-in-new-zealand-tells-a-different-story-than-the-official-one/

The New Zealand Government’s chief climate advisory unit NIWA is under fire for allegedly massaging raw climate data to show a global warming trend that wasn’t there.

The scandal breaks as fears grow worldwide that corruption of climate science is not confined to just Britain’s CRU climate research centre.

[noggin]

Before it gets really busy here again, I just want to say that I am glad of the situation that is arising. I hope that the worst excesses of the GW/AGW/CC business will be sorted out and that both "sides" will come out of the other end and work sensibly together. This has been a catalyst that will, hopefully, lead to some sensible progress being made WRT cleaner living and a greater respect for our world and it's bounty and resources.

Well, I live in hope........

[VillagePlank]

Professor Jones gives media account for emails, here

University of East Anglia statement, here

[Devonian]

Looks like this could be much worse than first thought as New Zealand’s NIWA accused of CRU-style temperature faking!!!!:

Yes, by the (mostly Australians) NZ climate coalition no less... And I'd expect no less from them...

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/11/25/uh-oh-raw-data-in-new-zealand-tells-a-different-story-than-the-official-one/

The New Zealand Government’s chief climate advisory unit NIWA is under fire for allegedly massaging raw climate data to show a global warming trend that wasn’t there.

The scandal breaks as fears grow worldwide that corruption of climate science is not confined to just Britain’s CRU climate research centre.

Erm, the alleged scandal actually...

I fear there is a concerted worldwide attempt by extreme sceptics to 'accuse' one organisation after another. It's drip drip propaganda.

Edited November 26, 2009 by Devonian

[Methuselah]

Yes, by the (mostly Australians) NZ climate coalition no less... And I'd expect no less from them...

Erm, the alleged scandal actually...

I fear there is a concerted worldwide attempt by extreme sceptics to 'accuse' one organisation after another. It's drip drip propaganda.

I agree, Dev. It's 50% baseless supposition and 50% conspiracy theory...Blogoshere Heaven!

[winterfreak]

http://bishophill.squarespace.com/blog/2009/11/26/smoking-gun.html

Update on possible new development with the code.....

[VillagePlank]

Yup - there's some naughty (read: bad) code in there. Avoiding the basic (and firable) programming errors, the bit that forces my eyebrows up and makes me look like a moderately surprised baboon is the following bit

ycon=1930
declinets=fltarr(mxdnyr)*!values.f_nan
allx=timey(ktem)
ally=difflow
;
kconst=where(allx le ycon,nconst)

** DECLINE BIT HERE HERE **
cval=total(ally(kconst))/float(nconst)
kkk=where(mxdyear le ycon)
declinets(kkk)=cval
;

** CURVE FIT BIT HERE **
kcurve=where((allx ge ycon) and (allx le 1994),ncurve)
allwt=replicate(1.,ncurve)
acoeff=[0.,1./7200.]
vval=curvefit(allx(kcurve),ally(kcurve),allwt,acoeff,$
function_name='funct_decline')
kkk=where(mxdyear ge ycon)
declinets(kkk)=vval(*)

Like the author says on that page. It applies a curve-fit post 1930, and it applies a reduction pre 1930 - there also appears to be a logic error such that for 1930 itself it will do both (LE = less than or equal, and GE = greater than or equal)

This does not look good - but there may well be innocent explanations such as stitching together datasets from different sources. Can anyone think of a source that ends in 1930, or another one that begins in 1930 and ends in 1994.

(Incidentally, if one of my programmers wrote code like that, I'd ask them into my office and ask them to shut the door behind them .... )

Edited November 26, 2009 by VillagePlank

[VillagePlank]

Here is the resulting curve-fit that the code, *ahem*, uses ...

... according to the post that's on that blog.

I can't check it because I have no means to compile it.

Edited November 26, 2009 by VillagePlank