My Winter Forecast 2009-10

[stewfox]

However, as scathing as I was and am, I am not a forecaster (nor would ever wish to be one) so I do agree with others that at least he commits himself to making one to be judged by - even if the way it is gone about is very questionable and annoying. In my own opinion at least.

Anyone from a 4 yr old to the worlds acknowledge best weather forecaster disserves respect.

I appreciate anyone who does any forecast that goes wrong is open to question at best, ridiculed at worse by people who perhaps have only 1/1000^th of the weather knowledge that person has.

However if a forecast is based (from the words used) on emotion rather then science then im afraid I will get turn off. I'm talking generally here.

Using even larger teapot , people today don't know what real winters means etc

For the record last winter which of course wasn’t ‘a real winter’ came 3^rd or 4^th in the last 47 years for lying snow in my area

Edited November 13, 2009 by stewfox

[Methuselah]

So long as we give everyone due respect AND judge any LRFs on their eventual accuracy (rather than on the number of scientific-sounding words they do/do not contain?) there should be no problems?

IMO, the layman couldn't care less about references to QBOs, ENSOs, SSWs, organized/disorganized PVs or whatever...All he (I?) requires is a concise forecast that's sufficiently non-vague that it can be verified, come March...And, IMO, Ian Brown has provided just that!

One thing I wonder, though: How many of today's 'experts' (habitual purveyors of Snowmaggeddon excepted) would have CORRECTLY predicted the winters of '63 or '79 in the previous November, even had all the data we have now been available to them? My guess would be not too many! :lol:

[MR EXTREMES]

i myself agree with this forecast very realistic indeed.

i dont how ever agree with the christmas pudding term i just dont like it.

but thats not taking anything away from the forecast,

i dont think december will be super mild slightly above looks more likely through out winter including febuary,

with the odd cold snap likely ofcoarse.

l:hi:

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

So long as we give everyone due respect AND judge any LRFs on their eventual accuracy (rather than on the number of scientific-sounding words they do/do not contain?) there should be no problems?

IMO, the layman couldn't care less about references to QBOs, ENSOs, SSWs, organized/disorganized PVs or whatever...All he (I?) requires is a concise forecast that's sufficiently non-vague that it can be verified, come March...And, IMO, Ian Brown has provided just that!

One thing I wonder, though: How many of today's 'experts' (habitual purveyors of Snowmaggeddon excepted) would have CORRECTLY predicted the winters of '63 or '79 in the previous November, even had all the data we have now been available to them? My guess would be not too many!

No, of course the layperson isn't interested in technical jargon, but the methodology still requires some technical input even if the translation is into simple english.

It isn't anything whatsoever to do with trying to fit in as many clever words as possible in order to make a forecast sound clever - but those clever words still remain the backbone as the factors that make up the forecast to be as encompassing as possible.

Everyone from the layperson to the weather professional reads LRF's so how do you decide what measure and balance of technical or simple language it contains to satisy all comers?

[mountain shadow]

Good forecast and certainly the form horse.

Could probably cut and paste that forecast for the last ten years.

What ever anyone says about Ian, he really puts his even larger teapot theory on the line. After all, we only need one, two week beast or Greenland high to blow it away.

[Alex95]

Tbh Joe B's forecast and Ian's forecast might not be as far apart as you may imagine. Joe mentioned 02/03 a few times, which featured a stronger than normal Siberian High I believe with a blocked pattern over Eastern Europe. If El Nino causes a more active Atlantic, the two factors could combine to make us west of the cold boundary in milder air, but Eastern Europe could get a severely cold winter.

All I'm trying to say is that Joe's forecast for a cold European winter may well be quite accurate, with the battleground between cold and mild slightly to far East for us to benefit leaving us in a mild southerly air stream fairly frequently. This would also make Ian's forecast plausible, but any westward advection of very cold air could be more likely by February given ENSO conditions etc. so that is the month to watch imo.

Edited November 13, 2009 by alza

[Solar Cycles]

Good forecast and certainly the form horse.

Could probably cut and paste that forecast for the last ten years.

What ever anyone says about Ian, he really puts his even larger teapot theory on the line. After all, we only need one, two week beast or Greenland high to blow it away.

That he does, and that's why he came unstuck last winter. You can't cut and paste a LRF every year, the law of averages tell us that!

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Tbh Joe B's forecast and Ian's forecast might not be as far apart as you may imagine. Joe mentioned 02/03 a few times, which featured a stronger than normal Siberian High I believe with a blocked pattern over Eastern Europe. If El Nino causes a more active Atlantic, the two factors could combine to make us west of the cold boundary in milder air, but Eastern Europe could get a severely cold winter.

All I'm trying to say is that Joe's forecast for a cold European winter may well be quite accurate, with the battleground between cold and mild slightly to far East for us to benefit leaving us in a mild southerly air stream fairly frequently. This would also make Ian's forecast plausible, but any westward advection of very cold air could be more likely by February given ENSO conditions etc. so that is the month to watch imo.

No Ian is relying heavily on the jetstream staying to our north and dominating the winter and a SW'ly or W'ly airstream being almost everpresent. All forecasts are possible, some not plausible but most will be...and at the end of winter we will see which one/s was/were probable. Ian's is out so well done Ian.

Did anyone see Jonathan Powell's LRF I posted back in October?

regards

BFTP

[kold weather]

Very interesting Ian and see no reason why at least a decent chunk can't come off.

Like others have said I also wouldn't be all that surprised to see a mild-very mild December, the 6.5-7C range was something I considered on a post a few days back and if we get the full El Nino Atlantic blast as we seem to be getting right now then odds are quite decent that this will occur to some extent at least.

Jan is a far tougher one to call, IMO a lot depends on the exacts of the El nino pattern as well as other factors, I suspect your going to end up a little too high because I suspect there could be something of a snapback in Jan to colder conditions.

As for Feb, seems pretty likely to me as well.

I think we are going to have a winter dominated in one from or another by the jet, its just where it places itself that is the key to the temps. As I've said before I think we will end up above average, but not by a massive amount, say about 0.4-0.7C above, so mild but not quite exceptionally so.

[cooling climate]

The thing is the atmosphere is in a more nina like state than nino with a low atmospheric angular momentum. It seems as if we need a kick from the nino to change the pattern and then see how things develope.

Also a strat warming at the 30mb level may well propagate downwards and this could also set the stage for a pattern change in another 10 to 15 days.

[kold weather]

Also I should say typically El Nino Decembers tend to be dominated by the jet stream. We probably don't want any high trying to block around our location because with a rampant jet you'd probably end it sinking into Europe and possibly even developing into a Bartlett which wouldn't be good. The best hope we have for December IMO is simply that the jet is fairly amplified and mobile enough so that whilst we will get the westerly blasts, it also allows us some topplers as well, though with a very active jet they may not last too long.

[Backtrack]

I very strongly disagree to a mild December. Charts at this moment are looking at a more chilly December rather than mild!

Edited November 13, 2009 by Backtrack

[Paul]

Which charts are they backtrack?

[LomondSnowstorm]

CFS weekly average was showing colder than average for most of the winter for months but has just changed to average or milder than average - slightly worrying for cold lovers but hopefully not too significant.

[kold weather]

Probably in direct response to the big ramp up in El nino we saw 10-14 days ago I suspect...

[Neilsouth]

That he does, and that's why he came unstuck last winter. You can't cut and paste a LRF every year, the law of averages tell us that!

Very true , pretty much the same forecast as last year with the " christmas pudding " mentioned SO SO many times... His last forecast was so badly wrong even piers was probably jealous :blush:

Christmas day is likely to be mild and dry for most parts before rain moves into the West later.

Oh come on , NO forecaster can accuratly predict that far ahead. You are a Piers Corbyn to the core , can you tell me the weather in two weeks time at 5pm in the evening?

You sir are an insult to the forecasting way of life

Edited November 14, 2009 by neilsouth

[Thundery wintry showers]

No, Ian's forecast for last winter (if I remember rightly) was more extreme and went for record warmth in at least one of the winter months (I think it was January). In contrast he has not gone for any records being approached/broken this winter, although a 6.5-7.0C December would be notable in the context of recent years (and there's a strong argument that we are well overdue a notably warm December).

[Weather-history]

(and there's a strong argument that we are well overdue a notably warm December).

We did have one only 3 years ago, December 2006 had a CET of 6.5 and was joint 25th warmest December on record. There is only one warmer December since 1974 and that was 1988

Edited November 14, 2009 by Mr_Data

[Thundery wintry showers]

Thanks for that- 2006 is easy to forget because in Tyneside it was unexceptional (the warmest only since 1997) but yes, in many other regions it was indeed a very different story.

Still, we do seem to have had far fewer notably warm Decembers in recent years than in most of the other months.

[Solar Cycles]

The Xmas day forecast is for a bit of fun only. I'm pretty confident of the general pattern at that time, obviously the specifics are open to question.

I make no apologies for mentioning the term modern a few times, we have seen such phenomenal changes over the last 22 years.

22 years, is a small cycle in climatic terms, as well you know Ian! I'm looking forward to this winter, not just because I'm confident of it producing some memorable moments for cold lovers...edit! Edited November 15, 2009 by Pete Tattum
Please read forum rules again???

[Mark Bayley]

Balderdash! 22 years, is a small cycle in climatic terms, as well you know Ian! I'm looking forward to this winter, not just because I'm confident of it producing some memorable moments for cold lovers, but also, to see you having to wipe that huge dollop off egg of your face AGAIN!!

Perhaps he won't...

Interesting read, most people do seem agree that February could be our best month this coming winter. I do wonder about January though, will have to wait and see what happens

[stewfox]

Balderdash! 22 years, is a small cycle in climatic terms, as well you know Ian! I'm looking forward to this winter, not just because I'm confident of it producing some memorable moments for cold lovers, but also, to see you having to wipe that huge dollop off egg of your face AGAIN!!

Whats with the insults ?

Anyway please post a link to your forecast so we can compare

[Methuselah]

Something I don't quite understand:

Why does Ian Brown's winter forecast create so much ill-feeling, when the fact remains (whether we like or not) that the vast majority of UK winters are mild or average? (Even 'average' isn't cold!)...Atlantic warmth and moisture make the single biggest contribution to our weather...

So, would the genius who correctly foretold 1963, 1979, 1982, 1987, 1996 AND all those mild/average winters inbetween and since, please stand up...

Piers Corbyn? Joe Bastardi? Bill Foggit? Margaret Thatcher? Winston Curchill?

[Fozfoster]

GOOD POINT

[Solar Cycles]

Whats with the insults ?

Anyway please post a link to your forecast so we can compare

I'm going for a 1947 type winter, because we are due one. It's the law of averages!! On a serious note, I'll state now that this winter will be the coldest since 95/96, maybe even comparable to 78/79, all due to a negative PDO, low solar minimum, and a continuing southerly tracking jet, resulting in more northern blocking this winter!

As for the insults, Mr Brown is (IMO) an antagonist, who refuses to engage when presented with the facts, that his even larger teapot theory is flawed!

Edited November 15, 2009 by Pete Tattum
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