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My Winter Forecast 2009-10


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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

Thank you Ian. I suspect you could have released this a few weeks back.

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

well worded forecast Ian, obviously I dont know that much scientific stuff but I'm learning, this forecast sadly (as I am a cold/snow fan) will be close, seems very realistic for the christmas pudding, great effort Ian,

still if I was to make one, I may throw in the odd 2 day toppler, but I dont know the science like Ian, but learning

Edited by mark forster 630
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Winter Forecast 2009-2010

<snip>

Thanks for the forecast Ian,pretty bog standard christmas pudding synoptics as you might say.

I dont agree with specifics Ian,i really dont see how one can go into synoptic detail at such range but the

patterns you allude to make sense to me.

Obviously i hope you are wrong,from my cold likng perspective but it will be very intresting to see if last winter

was a one off or the start of something different.

I think there is something happening with our climate,i'd call it global warming but you call it the christmas pudding.Either way thanks

again for your forecast and your willingnes to put ;pen to paper'.

:)

Edited by shuggee
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Posted
  • Location: G.Manchester
  • Location: G.Manchester

A good forecast Ian. I'm very much onboard for a very mild December and perhaps cooler February.

I'm not entirely sure most of the cold last winter came from "A displaced Azores High, inverted cold" high. Most of the cold was the first half of every month (Dec, Jan and Feb) First was of December was the coldest since 1976. First half of January was the coldest since 1997 and the first half of February was the coldest since 1996. These were all due to either, Northerly winds during the first half of December, light very cold advected air in January (many areas having their lowest minimum temperatures since February 1991, January 1987 or as far back as January 1979) and the cold spell of February was due to easterly veering NE and Northerly. In fact hardly any inverted cold last winter which makes that statement rather dubious.

Aside from that, I'd put this forecast at the forefront compared to a lot of the others going about at present.

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Posted
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral
  • Weather Preferences: Summer: warm, humid, thundery. Winter: mild, stormy, some snow.
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral

I think this is a fairly understandable forecast and whether you like the methods, it is one of the more down to Earth forecasts you might see this winter. It's not worth discussing the methods, because whilst Ians methods have some truths in them, and they cannot be ignored, it's difficult to take a method seriously because LRF's are very much noted for their lack of accuracy.

Still I think Ians playing safe and going for the form horse and to be fair who can blame him... I mean whats the point in forecasting snow storms and icy conditions if deep down you know its unlikely, any such forecasts are merely entertainment.

So yes good luck with that Ian, I do think this will be one of the more realistic forecasts.

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Posted
  • Location: Near Matlock, Derbyshire
  • Location: Near Matlock, Derbyshire

Thanks Ian. A good and realistic forecast which I would find it hard to disagree with at the moment. I certainly do think we could well be in for a mild winter. I'm not a fan of the "christmas pudding" phrase, but as you say, the facts and figures since 1987 are there for all to see.

I'm tending to keep an open mind about the future after last winter and I think it is premature to classify last year as a one off. It may well turn out to be, but only time will tell.

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Posted
  • Location: Broadmayne, West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall in particular but most aspects of weather, hate hot and humid.
  • Location: Broadmayne, West Dorset

Thank you for putting your forecast up Ian. I know we disagree on a great many aspects but I still respect anyone who is prepared to have a go at long term forecasting. It will be interesting to see how it pans out. I,m afraid I can't wish you good luck with it because it's not not the kind of winter I want to see, but I shall keep popping back to it to see how it compares to what actually happens.

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Posted
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold weather - frost or snow
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL

A good forcast there Ian.

I think your forcast will probably be the most accurate. Im not too confident of a cold or even average winter this yr with not much in the way of cold spells,just the odd 2 day half hearted cold snap from time to time. Maybe something colder around Feb or so like you and some others have said. Some might say you forecast the same kind of thing every year but i certainly cant blame you for that given most of the winters we have had since 1987.

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Posted
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)

Firstly, the 25th of December last year was not very cold at all, and a more accurate chart from that cold snap would be this : http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/archive/ra/2009/Rrea00120090101.gif

Secondly, the actual forecast seems fairly reasonable in terms of the general theme of a milder December with a cooler February, although I think there may be a few more cold spells in there than your forecast suggests. Overall, a marginally more balanced forecast than I expected, although the 'christmas pudding' idea is still fairly evident. I would like to see a little more of your methodology though.

good luck with it anyway,

CW

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Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

The one thing I have to take issue with is the insistence that last winter's cold overwhelmingly resulted from mid-latitude high pressure, as that point was convincingly refuted over on the Winter 2009/10 thread and yet you still insist on it. The main source of cold last winter was cyclonic/northerly regimes albeit with the air often sourced only from the periphery of the Arctic Circle.

Regarding the forecast itself, yes, perhaps predictable to some degree, but also very plausible- and more so than I expected, in all honesty. Indeed, your thoughts for how December is likely to pan out (including the CET of 6.5-7C), plus the prediction of February having close to average temperature, are similar to my own hunches regarding the likely patterns for the upcoming winter.

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Posted
  • Location: SE London
  • Location: SE London

thanks for your views on the forthcoming winter months Ian. (although i fear that the forecast of a mild winter will dismay many here) personally i have never been 100% convinced that a long range forecast can ever be accurate. at least they are a worthwhile indicator as to the possible trend for the season :)

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Guest North Sea Snow Convection

Nobody disputes the milder winters we have seen as a whole in recent years - reasons for which can be debated in the climate section under man made vs cyclical natural causes but this forecast is predictably based around an inflexible assumption that nothing will ever change. And ignores several pertinent factors that are entirely relevant to the prospects to the winter, which are uncertain and could produce cold weather or mild, but are ignored at the expense of Ian's infatuative hobby.

And the trend is exploited to make the UK sound 'nouveau sub tropical'. Much as it was expected to be .

The case post 1987 is unhealthily over fixated and exploited in line with the hobby/obsession of the author and obviously to 'sell' (overkill) the 'even larger teapot' catchphrase. Which is where the 'book' comes in - if there is to be one

Beyond this, there is precious little methodology at all to the forecast beyond the assumption made about interminable 'modern xtra tropical maritime UK' which is naturally selective to underpin the even larger teapot catchphrase ideology banner. But to be fair to Ian, he has given a little castaway lip service paid towards the solar min in terms of a Feb 'cool spell' as a weak attempt to appear 'impartial' Not enough frost to stop one putting the hanging baskets out in readiness for Spring I would suspect.

The continuing mention of examples of other european/world countries being cold at the exclusion of the BI underpins this 'sub tropical bubble' that we apparently live in at the centre of the modern universe and is probably more to do with the authors own angst about post early eastenders Uk weather than reality.

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Posted
  • Location: Bangor, Northern Ireland (20m asl, near coast)
  • Weather Preferences: Any weather will do.
  • Location: Bangor, Northern Ireland (20m asl, near coast)

Not the "big bad wolf" that people make you out to be, that forecast is very plausible and I would say is quite likely to be 80% correct. Although I do feel December will herald a toppler or two, January probably herald blocking developing in the NE, but overall I think a good job, and certainly not OTT in regards to "christmas pudding Bias".

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Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

Ian, the northerlies of last December were not especially cold, whereas the mid-latitude High at the end of the month did some produce pretty cold minima. I don't have the figures broken down but I'm pretty sure the spell at the end of Dec/New Year produced a considerably lower average, more especially England and Wales, than the northerly spells which were totally forgettable.

I will concede that the mid-latitude highs in late Dec/early Jan gave considerably lower temperatures than the northerlies. However, the northerlies certainly weren't "totally forgettable". The cold weather that they brought was consistent rather than outstanding, but it was colder than the weather that we've received from many northerlies in previous winters that were sourced from much further north. In Scotland and northern England, it was the snowiest start to December since at least 1976 and possibly since as far back as 1950, while the first half of December was the coldest since 1976- largely because of northerly winds. Taking the country as a whole the first half of February, due to the easterly on the 2nd and the northerly winds thereafter, was the snowiest two-week spell of weather since February 1991.

I have no gripes with the forecast itself though, and it is good to see you put your neck on the line like this- cold/snow lovers will just have to hope you are wrong as far as December and January are concerned!

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Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos

Ian

You've forecast; many on here have not. Fair play!

I'm defo a 'coldie' when it comes to winter, so your forecast does not exactly tick the right boxes! But who am i to argue?!

I'm beginning to 'warm' to your theory of a 'even larger teapot' though, or was i spoilt by some of the winters of 78-87?

I was hoping that last winter was the start of a 'sequence', even though the snowfalls were condensed into one week in Feb (for BTL anyway)!

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

Thanks for taking the time to put together a Winter forecast.

Whilst I can not deny that Winters have been on the mild side since the late 80's, I disagree with the fact we can not go back to Winters of old.

You most probably correct with your forecast for this Winter unfortunately

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire

A very good forecast from Ian and certainly plausible synoptically speaking. The only thing I would of added is in recent years we have often seen a quiet, frosty anticyclonic spell in Dec.

It will be interesting to see who is right this year especially as Ians forecast is the complete reverse of Joe B. Personally Im going for something inbetween (see my sig).

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Posted
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and heatwave
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft

The case post 1987 is unhealthily over fixated and exploited in line with the hobby/obsession of the author and obviously to 'sell' (overkill) the 'even larger teapot' catchphrase. Which is where the 'book' comes in - if there is to be one

I do wonder what this fixation with the even larger teapot has on peoples 'forecasting ability'.

Had we been in a cold snap now would the forecast have changed, of course it would. Would it actually have a bearing on Feb CET of course not

The last week has produce massive disappointment for cold lovers and it now going to be reflected in winter forecasts.

I'm sure now most 'forecast' will go back to winters over record mild etc

It's a pity but its human nature

Edited by stewfox
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Posted
  • Location: Blackburn, Lancs
  • Location: Blackburn, Lancs

I do wonder what this fixation with the even larger teapot has on peoples 'forecasting ability'.

Had we been in a cold snap now would the forecast have changed, of course it would. Would it actually have a bearing on Feb CET of course not

The last week has produce massive disappointment for cold lovers and it now going to be reflected in winter forecasts.

I'm sure now most 'forecast' will go back to winters over record mild etc

It's a pity but its human nature

One word springs to mind, PREDICTABLE!! Last winter, Ian was forecasting record breaking temperatures in Ireland. Not once did he mention the hale winter, prior to his "even larger teapot forecast". But now with "hindsight," Ian acknowledges that last years winter forecast, was busted before it was published! So Ian what excuses will we find, when this forecast bites the dust? Edited by Solar Cycles
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Good forecast, Ian. :help: But, as one who always hopes for snow and blizzards, I obviously hope that you're wrong; sadly though, I do suspect that you'll be far nearer the mark than Joe B...

And, on the subject of 'meteorological content,' I'd rather read a forecast written in plain English than wade throught a string of esoteric mumbo-jumbo 'indications' for cold weather...So, thanks for that! :)

In short: my heart hopes you're wildly wrong, but my head thinks that you won't be. :help:

Good luck with it, anyway! :)

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Posted
  • Location: Faro, Portugal
  • Location: Faro, Portugal

I did not like your prediction Ian!

However I must point out that it is the same model IRI / GMAO that point to the same standard that you in December and January.

As I live in Portugal this pattern gives me another dry year here in southern Portugal which is becoming a habit unfortunately!

I'm curious to see what gives European models IRI Ibimet and METOFFICE!

I really hope they are different from yours and that they will stick to the Americans!

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Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

Thank you for the forecast Ian. I know putting together any forecast takes a lot of time and effort.

I don't believe that it will be mild all the way through to February, but I would agree that February will give us the best chance of cold weather. I also have a feeling that January may have a cold period that will surprise many.I am linking this to the stratospheric state which I believe at some points during the winter will override the El Nino - especially so, the longer the La Nina-ish atmospheric state persists. That could drive a -AO which hopefully will transmit into a -NAO for a period. I feel that any -AO is more likely to come through on our side as the Pacific jet will be too strong.

Edited by chionomaniac
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Guest North Sea Snow Convection

I do wonder what this fixation with the even larger teapot has on peoples 'forecasting ability'.

Had we been in a cold snap now would the forecast have changed, of course it would. Would it actually have a bearing on Feb CET of course not

The last week has produce massive disappointment for cold lovers and it now going to be reflected in winter forecasts.

I'm sure now most 'forecast' will go back to winters over record mild etc

It's a pity but its human nature

The highlighted bit by me was really the jist of all I was saying in my post.

However, as scathing as I was and am, I am not a forecaster (nor would ever wish to be one) so I do agree with others that at least he commits himself to making one to be judged by - even if the way it is gone about is very questionable and annoying. In my own opinion at least.

I don't think that the present weather patterns really have any bearing at all on the winter - at least in terms of forecasting for the winter. They certainly shouldn't influence people beyond for eg the way that the atmosphere is currently not engaging the nino event that is getting so much attention at the moment. Chionomaniac touches on this above. It is pertinent discussion to the winter in terms of the type of forcing that will be assurgent and dominate and determine the weather patterns - cold or mild.

People have their own methods of course, and are freely entitled to them, but it would have been good to have seen some wider consideration to the other factors in play that will determine the winter. I have barely touched the surface of this above. That is where the skewering comes in. Afterall, anyone can predict 'more of the same' can't they? Even if they are not a proper forecaster.

Edited by North Sea Snow Convection
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