Winter / Autumn 2009-10 Part 4

[Coast]

As previously advised, please remember to keep to the topic of Winter / Autumn 2009-10 and respect the views, forecasts and opinions of others on this subject, even when they may not coincide with your own.

Off topic and snipping posts will be removed

[MR EXTREMES]

it seems nino is packing a punch,

also losing the possible neg NAO and the jet also not playing ball.

i cant for no longer be optimistic i tried even if we still a few weeks from winter.

its all going very wrong indeed id say a certain someone may well be spot on.

as for joe b lrf and others being bias towards cold,my opion is that at the time things suggested it could be cold.

but now it would seem this outcome is decreasing rapidly and the met office lrf could well be spot on,

i also expect them to go for above average winter in both temps and rainfall.

we have seen this happen in many winters so 2008/09 was just a blip with the right setup,

this year not a single cold spell and weeks drifting by with more and more bad news.

sorry peeps but i see nothing to be excited about even solar activity is not convincing me now.

[Duane S.]

I response to TEITS's post earlier on in part 3

######################################################################

Recent posts have just reminded me why I don't bother posting anymore winter forecasts!

You know when it comes to winter LRFs I have to be honest im not impressed with many that are available to us. I shall explain the reasons below.

Ian Brown - Just predicts mild all the time and he does this because its a safe bet. However in doing this you will get caught out at some stage.

Met O - Far too vague to be called a forecast i.e prediction of temps being near, around or above normal isn't what I call a forecast.

Piers Corbyn - Do I need to say anything!

Glacier Point- One of the better forecasts available although I hope GP doesn't mind me saying but I do think in seeking cold signals makes the forecast slightly bias.

Joe B - Unfortunately he loves writing sensational, headline grabbing forecasts with a bias to cold weather.

I would say my favourite has to be Steve Murr. Obviously he prefers cold weather like the rest of us but he will also be honest if a mild winter is likely.

#######################################################################

Pretty much agree wholeheartedly with those sentiments.

GP's (and Brickfielder's) LRFs/posts are often over my head but always a fascinating read nevertheless(hopefully one day I will understand it all :lol: )

Joe B is a fun read and (IMO) does really know what he is talking about. Not to be taken too seriously beacause of his incredible cold bias though.

Steve Murr, a bit like yourself TEITS, has probably been bitten too many times by spoilers and as a result now produces very level-headed forecasts. Written with passion and for the layman too.

I also have a lot of time for BFTP and RJS as well who were smack on the money a lot of the time last winter.

My thoughts for this winter. I still think we are going to be in the midst of a cold snap come the latter part of this month. A relatively short-lived but reasonably potent Northerly. I don't hold up a lot of hope for December with the Atlantic taking a firm grip for a few weeks but again I can see a pattern change come Xmas and a decent cold snap taking hold. Then maybe an average January (not a good thing by recent standards) followed up by a memorable February with several big snow events. All in all a fairly average winter but with a decent sting in its tale. That'll do me.

Regards El Nino and its effects I think it is all too easy getting too focussed in on what is in effect just one driver (albeit potentially a very big one). SSW is I think another factor which possibly gets too much attention and whilst I agree it is (or at least, can be) a big weather driver, on its own with certain counter-forces it can easily become neutralised.

I think the often overlooked factor in the crazed frenzy that takes over all of us is that we live somewhere which is simply not geared up to receive sustained cold weather. Everything is against it happening. Spoilers are the norm, it's when they don't appear that it becomes extraordinary. This is not a new thing it has always been the case. Ian Brown feeds off this safe in the knowledge that his vague repeat 'forecasts' are going to be nearer than not most of time. Sorry Ian but my 6 year old could have done that 3 years ago.

[Solar Cycles]

it seems nino is packing a punch,

also losing the possible neg NAO and the jet also not playing ball.

i cant for no longer be optimistic i tried even if we still a few weeks from winter.

its all going very wrong indeed id say a certain someone may well be spot on.

as for joe b lrf and others being bias towards cold,my opinion is that at the time things suggested it could be cold.

but now it would seem this outcome is decreasing rapidly and the met office lrf could well be spot on,

i also expect them to go for above average winter in both temps and rainfall.

we have seen this happen in many winters so 2008/09 was just a blip with the right setup,

this year not a single cold spell and weeks drifting by with more and more bad news.

sorry peeps but i see nothing to be excited about even solar activity is not convincing me now.

A little more faith wouldn't go amiss badboy! We are still in Autumn, nino is only a bit part player, and I still maintain it will be fading fast, come mid to late December. Foe once Joe B could be spot on, all the other pieces of the jigsaw needed, are still there. Last years early start to winter was a freak, even in the good old days, most winters were benign until mid December onwards!

[Gavin P]

A little more faith wouldn't go amiss badboy! We are still in Autumn, nino is only a bit part player, and I still maintain it will be fading fast, come mid to late December. Foe once Joe B could be spot on, all the other pieces of the jigsaw needed, are still there. Last years early start to winter was a freak, even in the good old days, most winters were benign until mid December onwards!

Whilst I agree its far too early for all this depression and despondency, I have to say I think El Nino is rather more important than a "bit part player"

[ribster]

it seems nino is packing a punch,

also losing the possible neg NAO and the jet also not playing ball.

i cant for no longer be optimistic i tried even if we still a few weeks from winter.

its all going very wrong indeed id say a certain someone may well be spot on.

as for joe b lrf and others being bias towards cold,my opion is that at the time things suggested it could be cold.

but now it would seem this outcome is decreasing rapidly and the met office lrf could well be spot on,

i also expect them to go for above average winter in both temps and rainfall.

we have seen this happen in many winters so 2008/09 was just a blip with the right setup,

this year not a single cold spell and weeks drifting by with more and more bad news.

sorry peeps but i see nothing to be excited about even solar activity is not convincing me now.

It seems I'm not allowed to post what I really think, but it's a little early to be throwing in the towel don't you think? In fact regardless of your view of Joe B, you could say that he is right on the money at the moment is he not?

[kold weather]

Yeah there have been plenty of winters that have had mild Novembers and Decembers, somethings even exceptionally so only to see a massive reversal in Jan and Feb and sometimes even longer into March. There are a few 80s December which prove that point nicely.

Saying that the pattern the models show is exactly what'd you'd expect in a strengthening El Nino, esp with regards to a HP cell being a constant factor in Europe and I fully expect this pattern will rear its head a fair amount in the first half of winter. I suspect the winter's eventual temp outcome will depend a lot on December and how driven by the jet it really is, Jan and Feb I can see not being far from average regardless of whether the anomaly is positive or negative, its December that could prove to blow the winters CET chances, as I can well see it possibly setting up for a 6.5-7C month, which whilst not quite exceptional, wouldn't prove the best of starts. We shall see though hopefully the jet will blow itself out in late November and we can have a break in time for December.

Also as for El Nino, I'm willing to bet it will end up over winter between 1.2-1.5C and if so its going to be a very key player *unless* we can get frequant sustained northern blocking, something thats been a huge problem in the recent decade.

Edited November 12, 2009 by kold weather

[Solar Cycles]

Whilst I agree its far too early for all this depression and despondency, I have to say I think El Nino is rather more important than a "bit part player"

Probably a little OTT Gavin, what I meant is that their are other factors to consider as well. El nino has been dominant in the last 20 years, so it's easy for people to think that just because we have a moderate nino now, then this will scupper another winter this time. PDO is negative, that's what will keep nino in check, hence my confidence in it dispersing come mid December onwards!

[Gavin P]

Kold, theres always the chance we could get a displaced high build over us and give us a frosty/foggy interlude at some point through December, which would keep the CET at a more sensible level. :lol:

Then we agree Solar. El Nino is important, but its not the only show in town. Personally I'd rather have a moderate/strong El Nino, which can allow colder spells at times than a moderate/strong La Nina, which I think almost universally means a mild/zonal winter with even occasional cold snaps pretty rare occurances.

Edited November 12, 2009 by Gavin P

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

it seems nino is packing a punch,

also losing the possible neg NAO and the jet also not playing ball.

i cant for no longer be optimistic i tried even if we still a few weeks from winter.

its all going very wrong indeed id say a certain someone may well be spot on.

as for joe b lrf and others being bias towards cold,my opion is that at the time things suggested it could be cold.

but now it would seem this outcome is decreasing rapidly and the met office lrf could well be spot on,

i also expect them to go for above average winter in both temps and rainfall.

we have seen this happen in many winters so 2008/09 was just a blip with the right setup,

this year not a single cold spell and weeks drifting by with more and more bad news.

sorry peeps but i see nothing to be excited about even solar activity is not convincing me now.

Its only 12 Nov You won't survive the winter if you feel like this already. But at the end of it all it is only the weather and there is nothing anyone can do about, whether cold or mild, wet or dry, rainy or snowy.

Relax - don't take it all too seriously .

Not addressed to you particularly at all here badboy - but to various others who have already adopted the traditional 'no-no' and 'head thumping' smilies at the first sign of anything rumoured to 'ruin' the winter, it is way way too early for any wrist slashing - and as I said there is nothing that can be done about it anyway. Whatever the outcome The weather does, what the weather does.

Perspective, perspective, perspective!

Worth readings Pauls guide to surving the winter every day if needs be. Although it is light hearted there is some very sensible advice in there that some folk should heed.

Edited November 12, 2009 by North Sea Snow Convection

[kold weather]

I'm not sure I'd have any Gavin but both have thier downsides. With an El Nino I tend to find there is more scope for at least toppler airflows as the flow tends to be more mobile and so you can get potent northerlies even in terrible El Nino winters...however El Nino tens to nearly always have a mirror image in the Atlantic, in other words you tend to find the Atlantic warming when the El nino develops, and the opposite with a Nina.

To prove this point have a look at last winter, the Atlantic was actually pretty cool, esp for the warm phase and that was on the back of a moderate La Nina in 07-08 and a very borderline cold neutral during 2008. Meanwhile in 2009 the Atlantic SST's have steadily been broadly rising back to near normal Warm phase levels...interestingly this occured mainly during May-July, which was when the El Nino pattern first emerged in the Pacific and started to develop away from the La Nina/cold neutral we had had since then.

Its quite possible we will get an anticyclonic period but I think unlike recent years its not going to be a clear type and instead be murked up with a lot of mild SW air with its bountiful of cloud, probably evolving from a displaced Azores ridge that I think will dominate.

Of course if we do get a December 2006 type of inversion it really will stump the chances of that sort of month, but right now I'm not really expecting it.

[Duane S.]

Last years early start to winter was a freak, even in the good old days, most winters were benign until mid December onwards!

Very true indeed. Last winter's start was probably about a one in 30 year event in respect of just how early it was in the season and how (relatively) harsh it was.

Even 'back in the day' some may be shocked to learn that winter didn't in fact start in October and didn't end in April, with non stop heavy snow and ice days in between!

[SP1986]

It is too early to be putting it off, but to put it into perspective you really need an interest which relies heavily on seasonal change in order to feel the emotion of the ups and downs of winter! Trust me I practically have heart attacks all the time through my heavily weather connected interests!

[Gavin P]

Kold, I think last winter was a weak/decaying La Nina winter, which is fine. Weak/decaying La Nina's seem to be associated with colder European winters. So for me I like to see;

1. Neutral.

2. Weak La Nina

3. Weak El Nino.

4. Moderate/strong El Nino

5. Moderate/strong La Nina.

Moderate/strong La Nina's are the true kiss of death. In other words, things are bad, but they could be worse. :lol:

Edited November 12, 2009 by Gavin P

[TEITS]

we have seen this happen in many winters so 2008/09 was just a blip with the right setup,

this year not a single cold spell and weeks drifting by with more and more bad news.

sorry peeps but i see nothing to be excited about even solar activity is not convincing me now.

I mean this in the nicest possible way but do not follow the models this winter if you wish to keep your sanity!

I might have been rather negative at this coming winter but even I wouldn't rule out a repeat of Jan 87 or Feb 91. I certainly wouldn't write our winter off in mid Nov. I suggest you look at November 1981 because this was a rather unimpressive month and nothing suggested what was looming for Dec!

[Thundery wintry showers]

Yes, the first half of last December was the coldest since 1976. Also, the snowy spell that most of Scotland and northern England had during the first four days was the most significant beginning-of-December snowy spell for a long time (early December 1997 was not quite as widespread). 1961 is another contender, but we have to go back to 1950 for the last one that was almost certainly much more significant and widespread.

Regarding La Nina, wasn't 2000/01 a La Nina winter? Temperatures and snow amounts were close to the average and some parts of southern and eastern Scotland, and some inland parts of NE England, had a notably snowy winter. Of course 1998/99 and 1999/00 were "westerly" La Nina winters, though not quite on the scale of 1988/89- in particular February & December 1999 had a fair number of snow events.

[Don]

I mean this in the nicest possible way but do not follow the models this winter if you wish to keep your sanity!

I might have been rather negative at this coming winter but even I wouldn't rule out a repeat of Jan 87 or Feb 91. I certainly wouldn't write our winter off in mid Nov. I suggest you look at November 1981 because this was a rather unimpressive month and nothing suggested what was looming for Dec!

If the internet/Netweather had been around this time in 1981, I suppose there would have been a lot of doom and gloom on here now?!

[Thundery wintry showers]

An even better example would be 1978 which was on course for a record-breaking warm November (this November has merely been close to average so far, albeit with warmer weather coming up).

[Methuselah]

Oh dear! Winter hasn't even started yet!

Being an 'old fart' I remember the 'Good Old Days'. :lol: And, if ever there was a time I was 'hopecasting' for a cold spell, it was in that period between Boxing Day and New Year. It certainly wasn't November 12!!

I may be wrong (I often am!) but real cold, not that horrible inversion stuff, spreading west from Siberia/Scandinavia or south from the Arctic can be a precursor to cold SPELLS later on?? IMO, badboy, to write-off the winter this early, is like writing-off the coming summer in February!

Take it as it comes is my advice...There's nowt we can do about it??? :lol:

If the internet/Netweather had been around this time in 1981, I suppose there would have been a lot of doom and gloom on here now?!

Let's just say: moderating would have been more difficult!

[Typhoon John]

I think it's more complex than weak Nino equal this and moderate Nino equals that.

Since the latest wave has started to wane we have gone back to La Nina like conditions in the atmosphere with -AMM. The negative tendency in the atmosphere seems to be caused by a number of coinciding factors. With this in mind it seems the strength of the Nino is being countered and we're ending up with more Neutral like conditions overall.

Therefore I think we should be judging the Winter potential based upon the effect ENSO is having (Neutral/Weak Nino conditions) rather than what the strict ENSO reading historically tells us (Moderate Nino - warm Winter).

[MR EXTREMES]

It seems I'm not allowed to post what I really think, but it's a little early to be throwing in the towel don't you think? In fact regardless of your view of Joe B, you could say that he is right on the money at the moment is he not?

i can honestly say i have the upmost respect for most people who post lrf and that will never change its not easy.

i absolutely agree cold snap is almost a cert,

but this autumn is very much being driven by nino and it would seem those who predicted it to strengthen are right and they predict it to strengthen futher so it would seem they could be right again.

also a shift in the jet which is also a nino feature its not going south anymore lack of cold in the northern hempshere add on the SST,s and things are going downhill.

thats without the rubbish build of winter ice in the arctic.

im simply saying that when joe b made his forecast he was looking at what he had at that time lots of things have changed since then.

so here goes above average winter stormy and very wet maybe a little colder towards mid febuary.

i hope i eat my words but from what i see the setup now makes for a poor winter and i cant even see it being anything like 08/09.

[johnholmes]

I make no apology for posting this in here, copied from the model thread, this thread is from some of you degenerating into a winter is over rather than making an attempt to keep to the title and make positive contributions to the thread.

read this and PLEASE take note about severe winters past.

slightly off topic perhaps more for the autumn-winter thread but anyone not old enough to remember the severe winters of the 20th century and what the preceding autumn was like really should look at the archives. You will then see that to say some of the things some of you have been saying for several weeks now about what winter may be is utter tosh.

I will copy this into the other thread.

Can we PLEASE get back to observing the models and commenting on what they show NOT what some may want it to show.

There is a moaning thread for those getting up tight about the models not showing what they wish to see-please use it and let the rest of us post in the thread about what the title calls it please?

I have to say if the two threads continue in this mode then I am probably going to restrict my posts to my job as senior forecaster issuing warnings etc and the occasional video if Paul asks for it. Quite why I and the majority like me who enjoy talking about the weather but in a constructive and positive manner about the models have to put up with pages of tripe is beyond me.

No I am not a mod so this may be removed but it expresses my growing annoyance at some posters.

[MR EXTREMES]

I mean this in the nicest possible way but do not follow the models this winter if you wish to keep your sanity!

I might have been rather negative at this coming winter but even I wouldn't rule out a repeat of Jan 87 or Feb 91. I certainly wouldn't write our winter off in mid Nov. I suggest you look at November 1981 because this was a rather unimpressive month and nothing suggested what was looming for Dec!

i think your right about the models but its not only thing i follow,

jet

solar activity

enso

sst,s

ssw

and global weather patterns and they all seem to be doom and gloom.

alot of people may slate me for this but ive seen this type of change and setup before,

and 80% of the time winter turns out bad for us.

although living on the soggy southcoast does not help lol.

fair enough john its just my opion,

and it matters not what i post because each of us have a opion,

but those severe winters where in the past,

since then things have only got milder through what ever forcings they might be.

but i feel i have had to rethink my optimistic views on this winter.

and i apoligise aswell john i had no idear it was annoying you so much and i wont post anymore tosh.

Edited November 12, 2009 by badboy657

[Reading FC]

i think your right about the models but its not only thing i follow,

jet

solar activity

enso

sst,s

ssw

and global weather patterns and they all seem to be doom and gloom.

alot of people may slate me for this but ive seen this type of change and setup before,

and 80% of the time winter turns out bad for us.

although living on the soggy southcoast does not help lol.

I certainly wouldn't slate you but if it turns out mild I for one would be happy with that. There's plenty on here who like a mild winter. Don't get me wrong I love a bit of snow when it comes but in this country it last a day or two an it's gone anyway. I would be very happy with a big fat euro high all winter. Keeps me out on the golf course and able to carry on doing things I enjoy all year long. I f I fancy a snow fix I can quite easily jump on a flight for under £50 and go spend a day or two somewhere snowy.

Get over yourself

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

i think your right about the models but its not only thing i follow,

jet

solar activity

enso

sst,s

ssw

and global weather patterns and they all seem to be doom and gloom.

alot of people may slate me for this but ive seen this type of change and setup before,

and 80% of the time winter turns out bad for us.

although living on the soggy southcoast does not help lol.

Nows not the time to panic Badboy,i can kind of unserstand why you feel negative but fear not we have DEc Jan and Feb to go at yet.It was probably inevitable that the Atlantic was going to kick into life at some point in the Autumn after the almost drought like conditions in sep and oct so although the outlook for coldies is poor at this time it will have little bearing on how winter pans out imo.

Lets see where we stand at the end of DEc and take it from there as far as winter is concerned.