679 replies to this topic

[stewfox]

Gray-Wolf, on 14 April 2010 - 18:31 , said:

I honestly think we'll be approaching 07's figure by mid Aug.

We will then have another month of ice loss so I'll say 07 or under by mid Sept.

I fear the latest volcano eruption has put the final nail in the coffin of the arctic ice.

Stands to reason some of that dark 'soot' is going to settle on that white pristine ice and ….. White reflect black absorbs

Cant find a link yet , where is the WWF when you need it ??

Edited by stewfox, 15 April 2010 - 16:33 .

[Gray-Wolf]

No worries Stew , current synoptics runs it well south of any 'ice' so you just have AGW to worry about (record global temps, warm plumes etc.) and the pee poor condition of the ice in the high Arctic...........

[Solar Cycles]

Gray-Wolf, on 15 April 2010 - 17:05 , said:

No worries Stew , current synoptics runs it well south of any 'ice' so you just have AGW to worry about (record global temps, warm plumes etc.) and the pee poor condition of the ice in the high Arctic...........

Explain how that is down to AGW please!

[shuggee]

No don't GW - this is the Arctic Ice thread.

[Solar Cycles]

shuggee, on 15 April 2010 - 17:26 , said:

No don't GW - this is the Arctic Ice thread.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Going by the IJIS figures, Arctic ice extent now down to 13,817,500 km2, so we've only lost around 30,000km2 in the last 2 days. This has brought the average loss over the last 10 days down to 41,078.1km2 which is the 4th highest in the last 8 years and around 1500km2 above average. The lowest rate of loss being 2009 at 18,828km2/day and the highest being 2004 at 79,250km2/day.
We are now 138,594km2 above 2003 and 462,578km2 above the 2003-present average. I reckon by this time next week we will be below 2009 as that lost very little in the middle third of April, and it's unlikely we'll repeat that feat this year. After that it's anybodies guess!

[Iceberg]

I think it has been mentioned already.

But some good stuff from NSIDC. http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

Firstly the very warm March over most of the Arctic (backed up by the record breaking Global temperature for March), which has led to reduced thickness according to NSIDC.

Also the movement of the >1 year old ice over the winter which has a useful pointer to summer minimum ice extent and which areas might have the least ice.

Looks like the NE passage has a good chance of opening, given a repeat of last year, whereas the Alaskan side might hold up a little more.

There is more older ice than last year though which will act as a benefit come summer.

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[Gray-Wolf]

Iceberg, on 16 April 2010 - 12:19 , said:

I think it has been mentioned already.

But some good stuff from NSIDC. http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

Firstly the very warm March over most of the Arctic (backed up by the record breaking Global temperature for March), which has led to reduced thickness according to NSIDC.

Also the movement of the >1 year old ice over the winter which has a useful pointer to summer minimum ice extent and which areas might have the least ice.

Looks like the NE passage has a good chance of opening, given a repeat of last year, whereas the Alaskan side might hold up a little more.

There is more older ice than last year though which will act as a benefit come summer.

I tend to think that the Siberian side of things now has a 'normal ocean profile' having spent 10 summers open to wind and wave action (smashing the old 'polar' horizons esp. the thermohaline layer) the chances of the area holding onto 'summer ice' are dramatically reduced.

The Alaskan/Canadian side are the Areas of Dr B's studies so the ice there may not be as durable as the 'old charts' make out. We should know by July how 'durable the ice is' but I'd tend to think that it'll melt out far more than over the past 2 years.

My greatest concerns for the Arctic are for ice within this old bastion of the perennial as once this has gone so has a predictable summer ice pack. With open water comes 'mixing' and we loose that cold,fresh upper horizon (replacing it with 'warm,salty') making ice retention ever more difficult.

The other point is the speed of water entering the basin through Bering. Last year the flow rate was the highest recorded. What has changed to enable this? are the channels within the Archipelago now able to accept this water (not frozen to near sea bed level)? what will that mean for the Archipelago and west coast of Greenland (via Davis)? If we do have a 'new' current of warm Pacific entering Bering and exiting via West Greenland/Newfoundland then pretty soon the Archipelago will be swept clear of remnant 'old perennial' and the ice sheets on the islands will recede even faster than my previous post suggests.

Edited by Gray-Wolf, 18 April 2010 - 11:22 .

[songster]

Time for a summer ice melt thread yet?

[Gray-Wolf]

http://www.arctic.no...gallery_np.html

This tells us the web cam will be up and running in the next 2 weeks........watch this space!!!

And, yup, songster I think we are due a new thread!

[stewfox]

Gray-Wolf, on 19 April 2010 - 11:37 , said:

http://www.arctic.no...gallery_np.html

This tells us the web cam will be up and running in the next 2 weeks........watch this space!!!

And, yup, songster I think we are due a new thread!

If only the artic ice would get out of winter mode I would agree.

Seems to be levelling of AGAIN now at just under 13.8m

Maybe sub 12m by mid june ??

http://www.ijis.iarc...aice_extent.htm

[The PIT]

Still doing quiet well at the moment. Best year yet according that chart Stew

[noggin]

This post is really aimed at G-Wolfie, in a nice way, of course!

http://www.ijis.iarc...aice_extent.htm

Wolfie, does this graph not give you some cause for optimism, (or is it that I don't understand graphs? )

It looks to me as if the ice reached a low low (IYKWIM!) in 2007, got better in 2008, better again in 2009 and is not looking too bad for 2010, so far.

Does this not give you some hope........even a teeny-weeny bit?

[Gray-Wolf]

Sorry Nogg's , it is just an illusion (I will of course be measured by these statements!).

Ice extent is a very poor way of measuring the health of the pack and ,before anyone comes at me with "we've measured it this way since....." , the Arctic is now 'different' as it has lost the majority of it's durable ice so anywhere across the Pole is liable to melt with only 'favourable conditions' enabling it to maintain through summer.

If we have a look at the MODIS images (now it's back up and working again!) you'll see what I mean with most of the 'late spurt' ice now melting fast (but still covering 15% or more of the ocean) and will be gone in 4 or 5 weeks. Look at the 'Arctic Exits' and you'll see the ice there (Fram/Davis/Baffin Island) is in a similar state (i.e. ahead of itself) and this will also be disappearing around the same time as the 'late spurt ice'.....a double whammy of ice loss in fact. Over the next 4 weeks I would predict that the little red line will plummet into the rest of the lines at the steepest rate of decline on the chart.

There is nothing alarming about this, had we not had the 'late spurt' then the 'normal ice' would have melted out around the rates we have become used to over the past few years but this year we have a lot of ice outside the arctic that is included on the graph and that will not endure the 'normal spring temps' in the Pacific/Atlantic.

Check out Hudson Bay and tell me that it is not a little ahead of itself this year (still over 15% but lots of 'small ice' and open water).

When we had huge big chunks of ice North of Greenland and through the Archipelago the loss of ice would slow down once it eroded back to the thick stuff (would not melt out) but now ,without the thick stuff, it will just continue to melt at a steady rate.

Dr Barbers discoveries of the 'Chameleon ice' means that we have even more ice that can melt this year as the perennial that collapsed into this 'rotten ice' faces it's first summer melt.

This rotten ice is what interests me this year. The Canadian archipelago and North of Greenland may well be ice free this year as this shattered perennial melts out (you'll be able to sail around Greenland) opening up another route for ice to flow out of the Arctic (across the north of Greenland).

Recent studies have discovered that it was not a positive AO that accelerated the melt through the 90's as it turned predominantly -ve through the noughties and ,instead of the loss slowing it accelerated.

Norwegian studies have now shown that a 'new' air pressure set up across North Russia is responsible for the export of ice through Fram. I'm not going to guess 'why' this 'novel' pressure pattern has arisen but this years -ve AO promises 'more of the same' for the ice and with N. Greenland looking set to go this year more 'free ice' will be shipped out down Fram across this route (the gate is left open).

The other 'worry' for the year is the global temps. If we are to have a 'record warm year' then the propensity for Atlantic blocking during low solar activity promises to ship this warm air up over the Canadian Arctic (as it did through winter) and speed the melt there (NW Passage open again this year?).

If , by June, we are still above all the other extents I will be pleasantly surprised but I'm not gonna hold my breath!!!

[stewfox]

Gray-Wolf, on 28 April 2010 - 08:48 , said:

If , by June, we are still above all the other extents I will be pleasantly surprised but I'm not gonna hold my breath!!!

I think the real test comes at the end of June before then all years are fairly well clustered.

[Gray-Wolf]

stewfox, on 04 May 2010 - 15:31 , said:

I think the real test comes at the end of June before then all years are fairly well clustered.

But , and this is a big 'BUT' all those years had the central core of perennial. The recent losses are the 'late spurt ice' in the main and the 'relaxation' of the central pack now open waters exist there. By late June we will have a lot of open water in the areas we had poor ice development (Barents, Greenland, Central Arctic ocean) and clear exits to the Atlantic via both Nares and Fram. We have been lucky over the past 2 years as the collapse of perennial in the Archipelago had it clogged and the same to the north of Greenland and this effectively 'log jammed' ice within those areas. You can already see free flow of ice through these 'exit' routes (and the collapse of the pack behind showing the direction it is flowing in).

The plot should have dropped below a couple of past years by weeks end but ,most importantly, it is already below 09's melt levels and we know the pattern of June/July melt from then. The ice is thinner and in poorer shape than 09' so why should we expect it to do better than this time last year?

By June we will have the last of the late spurt ice going, the Hudson Bay will be going (already on it's way really) and we should have a good indication as to whether the NW passage is opening this year. I imagine the NE passage will be open as the German shipping line that used it last year has already scheduled runs through it come Aug/Sept.

[The PIT]

Remember last summer most of the ice was due to go and didn't and I said wait until melting season ends and see what happens then.

Edited by The PIT, 05 May 2010 - 18:34 .

[Gray-Wolf]

The PIT, on 05 May 2010 - 18:34 , said:

Remember last summer most of the ice was due to go and didn't and I said wait until melting season ends and see what happens then.

But it did Pit , that's the point! Too many folk obsess about 'extent' (which will stop this year with IceBridge and Cryosat2) and not the 'amount of ice' in the basin. Check out the 'volume graph' and see for yourself. We start summer with less ice than 07's min and all of that is spread so thin we can have the extent you see. How can that endure? We have NEVER been in such a poor position before.

EDIT: Put it this way, with the losses we continue to have how long do we have before the 1 million mark without any 'big melt' taking us through the 'seasonal' threshold ?

Edited by Gray-Wolf, 05 May 2010 - 19:38 .

[stewfox]

Gray-Wolf, on 05 May 2010 - 19:32 , said:

But it did Pit , that's the point! Too many folk obsess about 'extent' (which will stop this year with IceBridge and Cryosat2) and not the 'amount of ice' in the basin. Check out the 'volume graph' and see for yourself. We start summer with less ice than 07's min and all of that is spread so thin we can have the extent you see. How can that endure? We have NEVER been in such a poor position before.

EDIT: Put it this way, with the losses we continue to have how long do we have before the 1 million mark without any 'big melt' taking us through the 'seasonal' threshold ?

Cant the Mods close this thread down ? Its hard enough following GW but over two threads

[jethro]

Oops, you're quite right, this should have been closed when the new thread to follow the summer season was opened. Sorry folks.

Summer melt to be found here http://forum.netweat...ce/page__st__34