What Will Be The Highest Temperature Recorded In The Uk Up To 31st August?

[Jackal]

Why the highest UK temperature this summer will be 100F or more...

This year is on course to top 2006

The only year in which the 100F mark was broken in the UK was 2003 and the record temperature in each month so far this year has fallen just short of those recorded that year. However, the second hottest summer of the decade came in 2006 and, encouragingly, 2009 is on course to top that. The record temperatures in four of the first five months of this year have topped their 2006 counterparts and on average there has been an improvement of 2.3F a month. The significance of that statistic is that in July 2006, the hottest temperature recorded was 97.7F (Wisley, Surrey) and a 2.3F improvement on that would hit the 100F mark.

You cant argue with Wisley

That 97.7F temperature recorded in Wisley during the 2006 heatwave broke an English record for being the hottest ever July day and there is reason to believe that new heights could be reached in Surrey this summer. The highs recorded there in both February (59.18) and March (61.16) this year were significantly superior to their equivalents in that record-breaking year (53.60 and 57.74). Unfortunately, the Wisley figure for April 2006 is inaccessible but this year's mark of 70.7 was higher than anywhere in the UK managed at that point three years ago.

Precautions are being taken already

The Department of Health are obviously wary of a record-breaking summer and have acted by launching their biggest ever Heatwave Plan. This years PGF guide spans 39 pages, compared to 32 last year. Among the techniques suggested to prepare for what could be a blisteringly hot summer are painting houses white, planting shrubs to provide shade and identifying the coolest room in your house.

The Met Office anticipates a barbecue summer

The last two summers have been very disappointing: 2007's was the wettest ever while last August was the dullest in history but the Met Office have confidently predicted that there will be significant improvement this year. They say that the UK is odds on for a barbecue summer with temperatures higher than normal and rainfall below average. Chief meteorologist Ewen McCallum has said: "After two disappointingly wet summers, the signs are much more promising this year." For the ever-understated Met Office, such a statement is their equivalent of letting their hair down.

NASA believes a new global temperature record is imminent

A hot summer appears to be on the horizon globally after NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies revealed back in January that they believe the planets temperature record will be broken by the end of next year. They said: "Given our expectation of the next El Nino beginning in 2009 or 2010, it still seems likely that a new global temperature record will be set within the next 1-2 years, despite the moderate negative effect of the reduced solar irradiance."

I would like to know what is your predictions about the highest temperature recorded in the UK up to 31st August.

What is the possibillity that the highest temperature recorded in the UK will be greater than 35 deg Celsius?

Edited June 19, 2009 by Jackal

[SunnySouthCoast]

I think the highest temp this summer will be 33C (91F), somewhere around the London area... :o

[Methuselah]

34C (93F), again near London. :o

[GRHinPorts]

The premise of the OP seems to be that the highest maximum temps recorded in the Spring months determines what high maximum temps will be recorded in the Summer months. I am not so sure this argument stands up to scientific scrutiny but perhaps someone who knows better will be able to show it does.

Wisley is often a place that records high temperatures in Summer I have noticed.

[Optimus Prime]

Every year people expect extremes to be broken, last year early on we were expecting 100f to be broken again. In the end it climbed no higher then 85f and some places failed to rise above 80f, much like in 2007.

Fully expect the last two years to be bettered. 35c being the high.

[SnowJoke]

Personally i think max temp this year well be 37'c in august around the south of england, new forest area. I dont think this summer is going to be extremely hot, and sadly much like last summer, brief spells of hot weather along with rainy / stormy outbreaks.

[reef]

Temperatures above 35C are quite rare and only really happen inthe warmest summers. Above 33C isnt that common either:

Hottest days of the year in the last 30 years (orange >33C, red >35C)

1979 30.4 Benson (Ox.) 27 July

1980 29.4 Cors Fachno (Dyfed) 4 June

1981 29.5 Kew 5 August

1982 30.7 Morley St. Botolph (Norf.) 3 August

1983 33.0 Hampton 15 July, East Bergholt (Suffolk) 16 July

1984 31.9 St Louis (Jersey) 20 Aug

1985 30.1 St Louis (Jersey) 13 July (30.5 Mepal 12 Sept looks wrong!)

1986 32.0 Rustington (W. Sussex) 28 June

1987 30.1 Northolt (Lond.) 20 Aug

1988 30.2 Cheltenham (Glos.) 7 Aug

1989 34.4 Mickleham (Surr.) 22 July

1990 37.1 Cheltenham 3 Aug

1991 32.1 Cromer (Norf.) 11 July

1992 30.3 Malvern 29 June

1993 29.7 East Bergholt (Suff.) 4 July

1994 34.0 Lakenheath (Suffolk) 12 July

1995 35.2 Boxworth (Cambs.) 1 Aug

1996 33.2 Rickmansworth 22 July

1997 33.1 Wellesbourne (Warks.) 10 August

1998 32.2 Gravesend 10 August

1999 32.7 Heathrow 1 August, Honington (East Anglia) 2 August

2000 32.6 Coltishall (Norfolk) 19 June

2001 32.2 Northolt (London) 26 June

2002 32.6 Northolt (London) 30 July

2003 38.5 Brogdale, near Faversham (Kent) 10 August; with some debate, and 38.1C at Kew may be more reliable

2004 31.5 Northolt (London) 8 August

2005 32.6 Heathrow 19 June

2006 36.5 Wisley (Surrey) 19 July

2007 30.1 Terrington St. Clement, Wisbech (Norfolk) 5 August

2008 29.7 Kew Gardens, London 27 July

Figures from Trevor Harleys excellent site: http://www.personal.dundee.ac.uk/~taharley/hottest_days.htm

Note how good the mid-90s summers and how poor the 80s summers generally were. Around 32C would be a good guess.

[Duncan McAlister]

Why the highest UK temperature this summer will be 100F or more...

This year is on course to top 2006

The only year in which the 100F mark was broken in the UK was 2003 and the record temperature in each month so far this year has fallen just short of those recorded that year. However, the second hottest summer of the decade came in 2006 and, encouragingly, 2009 is on course to top that. The record temperatures in four of the first five months of this year have topped their 2006 counterparts and on average there has been an improvement of 2.3F a month. The significance of that statistic is that in July 2006, the hottest temperature recorded was 97.7F (Wisley, Surrey) and a 2.3F improvement on that would hit the 100F mark.

You cant argue with Wisley

That 97.7F temperature recorded in Wisley during the 2006 heatwave broke an English record for being the hottest ever July day and there is reason to believe that new heights could be reached in Surrey this summer. The highs recorded there in both February (59.18) and March (61.16) this year were significantly superior to their equivalents in that record-breaking year (53.60 and 57.74). Unfortunately, the Wisley figure for April 2006 is inaccessible but this year's mark of 70.7 was higher than anywhere in the UK managed at that point three years ago.

Precautions are being taken already

The Department of Health are obviously wary of a record-breaking summer and have acted by launching their biggest ever Heatwave Plan. This years PGF guide spans 39 pages, compared to 32 last year. Among the techniques suggested to prepare for what could be a blisteringly hot summer are painting houses white, planting shrubs to provide shade and identifying the coolest room in your house.

The Met Office anticipates a barbecue summer

The last two summers have been very disappointing: 2007's was the wettest ever while last August was the dullest in history but the Met Office have confidently predicted that there will be significant improvement this year. They say that the UK is odds on for a barbecue summer with temperatures higher than normal and rainfall below average. Chief meteorologist Ewen McCallum has said: "After two disappointingly wet summers, the signs are much more promising this year." For the ever-understated Met Office, such a statement is their equivalent of letting their hair down.

NASA believes a new global temperature record is imminent

A hot summer appears to be on the horizon globally after NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies revealed back in January that they believe the planets temperature record will be broken by the end of next year. They said: "Given our expectation of the next El Nino beginning in 2009 or 2010, it still seems likely that a new global temperature record will be set within the next 1-2 years, despite the moderate negative effect of the reduced solar irradiance."

I would like to know what is your predictions about the highest temperature recorded in the UK up to 31st August.

What is the possibillity that the highest temperature recorded in the UK will be greater than 35 deg Celsius?

Keep it up, it'll bring the odds down so I can lay it on Betfair :lol:

Edited June 19, 2009 by Duncan McAlister

[03jtrickey]

36.6C

[Derp Patrol]

The last time that somewhere in the Uk did not reach at least 30C in summer was 1993, last year did actually reach 30.2C in Cambridge - http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/2008/july.html

I would expect that 30C will be surpassed at least a few times this summer.. I don't think we will see any 35C plus though, as much as I would like us to, we would need exceptional charts and I suppose 850s of at least 20C

I think we might see a max of around 33-34 in the London area in late July/August

Edited June 19, 2009 by robthefool

[MP-R]

I would somewhere in the region of 33C in the second half of July perhaps.

[sundog]

I would go for 32c being the highest temp in the UK this summer,and the last week of June and first week of July being the warmest period of this summer.

[TonyH]

34c in July.

Perhaps not in Coleraine though :lol:

Edited June 19, 2009 by Tonyh

[hotsummer]

Why the highest UK temperature this summer will be 100F or more...

.....because you have your thermometer in a greenhouse!! :lol:

[Costa Del Fal]

34c in July.

Perhaps not in Coleraine though :lol:

:lol: , you never know, i think 50c may be recorded there. :lol:

I think the maximum this year will be approx 33c sometime in Late July/Early-Mid August.

[MR EXTREMES]

ha ha of coarse records will be broken somewhere around the world they always are so i go for 31c max this summer and thats pushing it.

as for nasa well pinch of salt comes to mind,

this summer will do and will be as hot as it wants and after a pretty coolish couple of years with cooler cets for sometime,

then id rather disregard nasa / met office/ and weather online along with many others,

from my point of view there all warm mongers,

and ive herd so many predictions for many years and now i laugh they all move the goal posts to suit them. :lol:

but ofcoarse it could well turn out mega tropical extreme hot what with the solar minima might even set up a bbq in january :lol: .

but yes of coarse some nice very warm perhapes humid conditions on the way and as for my temp guess i most likely be wrong :lol: .

Edited June 19, 2009 by badboy657

[Koppite]

The magical figure of 32C/90F somewhere around London or the Southeast area.

[Derp Patrol]

Ok

Scotland - 28C

Wales - 30C Somewhere around Cardiff maybe

NI - 29C Maybe in July/August

England - 34C Heathrow late July

[J07]

Scotland - don't think they will get higher than whatever it was they got in May (27C?)

Wales - 30C

NI - 28C

England - 33C

[Optimus Prime]

The last time that somewhere in the Uk did not reach at least 30C in summer was 1993, last year did actually reach 30.2C in Cambridge - http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/2008/july.html

Apparently we recorded above 30c in 2007, but that site as far as I know, according to Philip Eden is rather "non-standard" meaning 29.7c was a more reliable figure for that date.

Also the 30.2c looks a tad suspect to me. The Metoffice had the highest temperature at 29.7c (what is it with 29.7?) for as long as only recently, so it sounds like the Metoffice is being....the Metoffice. Sometimes I get the feeling they work with figures they choose to use.

I was surprised July 1983 had a highest of just 33.0c. July 1983 was the hottest month ever (until 2006) and in some coastal areas still is.

[Eugene]

32C in London...... 28C or lower everywhere else

Edited June 20, 2009 by Eugene

[PB22]

I don't see why somewhere won't hit 34C this summer, the potential is certainly there I feel for a notable hot spell to develop.

[Supercell]

Well... an ever so slight chance that, one day, somewhere in the UK could witness the seldom experienced (or reliably mesaured) Heat Burst phenomenon.

Look at some of the examples of how temperatures can rocket ridiculously in very little time at all:

http://www.supertightstuff.com/03/25/pictu...xtreme-weather/

"a “heat burst” where winds rapidly increase the temperature and lower the moisture in the air. The most extreme of these is the supposed 87 °C (188 °F) during a heat burst in Abadan, Iran during June of 1967."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heat_burst

"Kopperl, Texas, 1960: A heat burst sent the air temperature to near 140 °F (60 °C), supposedly causing cotton crops to become desiccated and drying out vegetation.^[17] "

"Portugal, July 6, 1949: A heat burst reportedly drove the air temperature from 38 °C (100 °F) to 70 °C (158 °F) two minutes later (note that the highest temperature formally recognized on the Earth is 57.8 °C (136 °F) in Libya in 1922, and the former record has not been verified).^[18] "

...Not that we would want to be anywhere near a heat burst if it were to occur.

[Weather-history]

This year is on course to top 2006

The only year in which the 100F mark was broken in the UK was 2003 and the record temperature in each month so far this year has fallen just short of those recorded that year. However, the second hottest summer of the decade came in 2006 and, encouragingly, 2009 is on course to top that. The record temperatures in four of the first five months of this year have topped their 2006 counterparts and on average there has been an improvement of 2.3F a month. The significance of that statistic is that in July 2006, the hottest temperature recorded was 97.7F (Wisley, Surrey) and a 2.3F improvement on that would hit the 100F mark.

In both the summers of 2003 and 2006, the Junes of those summers were considerably warmer months than the June of 2009 currently is

June 2003: 15.9

June 2006: 16.2

June 2009: 13.4 (based on Manley)

It would have to be a 1995 type summer for this summer to be up there with those 2.

Also very high summer temperatures doesn't necessarily correlate with a very good summer. Summer 1948 contained the highest CET mean ever recorded and 35C was recorded during that summer but it wasn't a good summer overall.

Don't buy your logic I'm afraid.

[GRHinPorts]

I don't see why somewhere won't hit 34C this summer, the potential is certainly there I feel for a notable hot spell to develop.

This is pretty much just a guessing game...but my thoughts correlate exactly with yours.

If I was to guess a date, location and exact temp I would plump for 34.1 at Northolt on the 5th of August.