273 replies to this topic

[noggin]

Nearly 10 o'clock....only an hour to go! I just checked the MetO site, but it ain't there yet.

[londonsnow]

Early indications are that winter temperatures are likely to be near or above average over much of Europe including the UK. For the UK, Winter 2009/10 is likely to be milder than last year.


there you go. fascinating stuff

[badboy657]

Solar Cycles, on 21 July 2009 - 19:42 , said:

That was the point I was trying to raise Tamara. We have all seen their seasonal forecast, were they can't help but mention how colder winters are less frequent. Directly or indirectly, they still factor AGW into the forecasts. They are making forecast, based on factors which may or may not, have any influence on our climate, depending on your viewpoint. This IMO, is why they are doomed from the start!

i agree with 2 things and that the earth is warmed,
i also agree met o do factor gw all the time like weather online and bbc weather its always plastered in stories of gw.

but i expect its hard for them to work out whats going on,

although warming has been a fact,
perhapes looking at both sides might help with there forecast,
jet stream aswell is most likely the cause of them getting there forecast wrong but they need to look into why its decieded to catch them out perhapes this happens more in times of low solar activity,

but ofcoarse your never hear about it because more focus is being put on the warming trends of past decade perhapes this will change if we have a string of cold winters and poor summers,

there 2008/09 autum winter and spring forecast where wrong,

i wonder why they where wrong erm let me think perhapes some gw thrown in for good measure,
but this is not to say that mother nature will play ball.

because in my opion there is more to our weather climate than just STT,s NAO ECT so many other factors need to be taken into account which they most likely dont and its simply looking at one of our main source of our energy the sun and its effects on NAO.

and i just read it and its pointless even bothering because the fact is they dont know its to soon and there predictions sound like a broken record.

and yes it is only early indications even if it was full forecast i would not take no notice.

just thought john im not trying to pick a fight but inregards to solar cycles comment about gw being used in there forecast.

<h2 style="border: medium none ;" class="ghead470">Our methods</h2> This first assessment of prospects for Winter 2009/10 is based on statistical forecasting methods. These statistical predictions are based primarily on the influence of North Atlantic Ocean temperatures on European winter weather, and changing expectations for winter due to the warming climate. In September the forecast will be updated by including output from global numerical forecast models. Seasonal trends affect large geographic areas, so our forecast for the UK is in the context of Europe as a whole.

Edited by badboy657, 23 July 2009 - 10:15 .

[kippure]

Cant find it on the met office sitie, can someone provide a link

[londonsnow]

http://www.metoffice...009/winter.html

there you go.

by the by, is anyone else finding this forum much slower since the update?

[kippure]

londonsnow, on 23 July 2009 - 10:36 , said:

http://www.metoffice...009/winter.html

there you go.

by the by, is anyone else finding this forum much slower since the update?

Cheers

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

PLEASE remember this is not a forecast by the METO, but an 'early indications' release.

BB - Perhaps have a look at John Holmes posts of late regarding your comment of GW/METO. JH is as much with the METO as anyone on this site, so I would suggest some open ears.

[Paul B]

Can't really argue with the wet and mild suggestion from the Met Office at this stage. Of course, even the mildest winters can have a cold spell, so all is not lost for cold/snow lovers. El Nino I feel could play a big role this winter and I would certainly favour a milder and wetter outcome if I had to lay my cards on the table at this moment in time. However, there are many, many factors to consider and to try and fit in.

[damianslaw]

I think the MET should wait until September before releasing any outlook, they should be releasing an autumn outlook first not winter. They don't release a summer outlook in late January...

I've lost all faith in there forecasts any way, recent forecasts have been very wide of the mark and this 'barbeque' summer forecast is fast going down the pan, with the warming trend you would certainly expect them to say warmer and wetter its what all the climate change people constantly bang on about..

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

[quote name='damianslaw' date='23 July 2009 - 21:57 ' timestamp='1248382637' post='1570083']
I think the MET should wait until September before releasing any outlook, they should be releasing an autumn outlook first not winter. They don't release a summer outlook in late January...



The SSTs in winter don't play a part in the NAO I believe but do in May/June. I agree with the above average precip, the jet will continue its southerly position. The El Nino could affect early winter temps with colder latter part BUT if El Nino declines through autumn then overall colder winter is on the cards. However, I am looking at the fact that cold winters have occurred in El Nino times and it could be due to larger cyclical facts like perturbation, PDO, AMO etc.

BFTP

[Don]

I'm also in agreement that if El Nino weakens during the Autumn we may have a good chance of seeing a Winter similar to 2008/09. However, although the Met Office forecast a milder than average Winter last year, their NAO forecast was for a weakly positive NAO and this year is for a strongly positive NAO. IMO their NAO forecasts have been pretty accurate in the time that I've been following their forecasts which makes me think that their early thoughts for Winter have a higher chance of being correct compared to last year.

[pyrotech]

The met winter forecast will be as accurate as the summer one they issued. NOT very accurate.
I have to agree that global temps have risen due to climate change, but the effects will be different throughout the globe.
Firstly having watched the North Atlantic Drift for years i have been saying that the small but signifigant changes within it will effect the jet stream and it has (or atleast something has).
We are also still in a Solar minimum, Almost all the experts thought we would be out of it by now, there has been a few false starts but currently no sun spots for 15 days. The signifigance is a slight but again signifigant decrease in radiated heat reaching Earth ( 0.2%). Also history shows that prolonged solar minimums cause deep cold air to extend through North West Europe.
Personnally i can see a winter similar to the previous with some disruption from Snow, Continuation of these factors could take us back to winters of the early Eighties. To be totally honest it is impossible to accurately predict the "weather" on the Sun and it is that which will matter most. A return to solar normality will have a huge effect, continuation of solar minimum for a few years more will give a very cold outlook.
If it continues as it is now then Snow is likely for many this winter in signifigant falls, Where, when, and how much disruption will depend on weather systems. It should be a very busy winter for the NETWEATHER forums.
I have gone into more detail about this effects in the climate change forum UK & WESTERN EUROPE if any one wants to read more.

I know there are sceptics about both the Atlantic conveyor and sunspot cycles effects on our weather, but i am happy to discuss difference constructively.

Edited by pyrotech, 26 July 2009 - 10:14 .

[The PIT]

Just read the summer forecast just to remind myself. Oops unless Auguest is very hot and dry it's gone the way of the mega pear.

[RAIN RAIN RAIN]

I think this winter will be somewhere between slightly below average to record-breaking above average.

Edited by RAIN RAIN RAIN, 27 July 2009 - 18:00 .

[shuggee]

A couple of my observations/question posers on Meto forecasts of this nature for the discussion:

1. The media office really ought to have known better than to have spun the forecasters' hard work into that dreadful phrase 'bbq summer' this year. It really could be egg on face time as it's such a difference to their normal conservative, carefully presented and reasoned analyses. The review of the forecast in the autumn may allow us an insight into the processes that produced this, and it will be interesting to see if they come out defending it. August permitting of course... However, if they do defend it (stay with me, there is a logic here through all the ifs and buts), would they be able to justify a headline for a winter forecast along the lines of 'big freeze' for two five day long outbreaks of substantially below average temperatures in Scotland? I add the geography in there as the most likely area to have hot weather is the southeast - and that's where the hottest 'bbq weather' has been - so conversely in winter it's Scotland that's more likely to experience said cold?

2. If last year's form is anything to go by - the monthly updates after October are the most interesting and appear much more accurate. It's obviously nearer the event, so it's a more robust forecast, but also the real flavour of weather gets described rather than a generic 'likely to be near or above average' measure which is all we will get until then.

BLAST FROM THE PAST, on 25 July 2009 - 14:51 , said:

The SSTs in winter don't play a part in the NAO I believe but do in May/June. I agree with the above average precip, the jet will continue its southerly position. The El Nino could affect early winter temps with colder latter part BUT if El Nino declines through autumn then overall colder winter is on the cards. However, I am looking at the fact that cold winters have occurred in El Nino times and it could be due to larger cyclical facts like perturbation, PDO, AMO etc.

BFTP

You don't subscribe to the high SSTs around SE Greenland aiding cyclogenisis Fred? Or are you looking at the bigger picture? I'm sure Ian Brown would disagree....

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

shuggee, on 27 July 2009 - 20:08 , said:

You don't subscribe to the high SSTs around SE Greenland aiding cyclogenisis Fred? Or are you looking at the bigger picture? I'm sure Ian Brown would disagree....

Hi Shugs
Ian Brown I think had a point...to a degree. The jet did migrate ever further north and we did get into a cyclo-rut but not driven by AGW or SSTs or irreversible as Ian postured. We have seen over the past 2 years the jet's southward migration and I think this is a longer term trend [but won't be exclusive. Last winter was a classic example of this....there really didn't appear any reason with the 'usual' teleconnections for the jet to stay south like it did. I believe that solar cycles and lunar forcings are playing the bigger role hence affecting PDO, ENSO etc

BFTP

[johnholmes]

shuggee, on 27 July 2009 - 20:08 , said:

A couple of my observations/question posers on Meto forecasts of this nature for the discussion:

1. The media office really ought to have known better than to have spun the forecasters' hard work into that dreadful phrase 'bbq summer' this year.

re that Shuggee
Its my understanding that there was a Power Point headline of that phrase-then a discussion followed based on the actual text which was nothing like that rather silly headline.

Once again I have to say the naivety of UK Met continues to amaze me. The tried and tested, rather staid approach, is much less likely to get such banner headlines.
But there we are, I fear they are on the same path as the media in general - dumbing down on almost everything.

[Essan]

johnholmes, on 27 July 2009 - 20:45 , said:

re that Shuggee
Its my understanding that there was a Power Point headline of that phrase

Yes, I've seen it.

Given the actual forecast it was a daft thing to do. I do wonder if they were under government pressure to ramp up some 'good news'?

Edited by Essan, 27 July 2009 - 21:08 .

[The PIT]

I see the met office are being slaughtered in the media for the barbi forecast.
The guy doing the Breakfast forecast was denying they ever said that but he needs to read the met office web site.
From the met office website.

The coming summer is 'odds on for a barbecue summer', according to long-range forecasts. Summer temperatures across the UK are likely to be warmer than average and rainfall near or below average for the three months of summer.
Chief Meteorologist at the Met Office, Ewen McCallum, said: "After two disappointingly-wet summers, the signs are much more promising this year. We can expect times when temperatures will be above 30 °C, something we hardly saw at all last year."
Although the forecast is for a drier and warmer summer than average it does not rule out the chances of seeing some heavy downpours at times. However, a repeat of the wet summers of 2007 and 2008 is unlikely.
Government Services Director, Rob Varley, said: "Our long-range forecasts are proving useful to a range of people, such as emergency planners and the water industry, in order to help them plan ahead. They are not forecasts which can be used to plan a summer holiday or inform an outdoor event."
Met Office seasonal forecasts are just one part of the jigsaw in the range of forecasts provided, complementing our shorter-range forecasts and supporting our role, as the nation's official weather forecaster, to help everyone make the most of the weather.
The Met Office works with the Environment Agency, SEPA, the NHS and others across government to ensure that we are ready to meet the challenges that severe weather may present us at any time of the year.

So sorry you can't squirm out of that one. The actual forecast said

For the rest of summer, rainfall is likely to be near average over the UK. A repeat of the very wet summers of 2007 and 2008 remains unlikely.
Over other parts of western Europe rainfall is likely to be near average or above average, while below-average rainfall is favoured over much of eastern Europe.
What do we mean by average rainfall?
We base our average rainfall on measurements over the whole season for the years 1971–2000. The UK average for June to August is 227 mm.
For the UK and much of Europe temperatures for the rest of the summer are likely to be above average.
What do we mean by average temperature?
As you would expect, temperatures can vary quite widely over the summer. So we take an average for the whole season and measure against that. The UK average for June to August from 1971–2000 is 14.1 °C.

Well temperatures are slightly above normal so that bit is close enough. Rainfall forecast is pants frankly.

Looks like the left hand needs to know what the right hand is doing. Over all a very bad case of media handling. You reap what you sow.

Edited by The PIT, 29 July 2009 - 07:48 .