273 replies to this topic

[LomondSnowstorm]

Yet another epic fail by the warm-merchants. They tried to claim last winter would've been colder but for AGW - that's not even vaguely science, that's just religiousity.

[Optimus Prime]

AGW is strongly backed up by science.

[Roger J Smith]

Yep, thanks to global warming as the wind cuts right through you, the wind chill is only -18 instead of -19. This means you might make it back to the house after all.

[Victor Meldrew]

Roger J Smith, on 31 December 2009 - 09:35 , said:

Yep, thanks to global warming as the wind cuts right through you, the wind chill is only -18 instead of -19. This means you might make it back to the house after all.

haha

I did see a forecast the other day that actually said " If it wasn't for global warming this winter would be much colder "

[Solar Cycles]

Roger J Smith, on 31 December 2009 - 09:35 , said:

Yep, thanks to global warming as the wind cuts right through you, the wind chill is only -18 instead of -19. This means you might make it back to the house after all.

[johnholmes]

neilsouth, on 31 December 2009 - 10:09 , said:

haha

I did see a forecast the other day that actually said " If it wasn't for global warming this winter would be much colder "

that might not be as daft as it might at first sound.
the earth's temperatures are about 0.75C higher, overall, than they were 60-70 years ago, so it is possible that might have a ring of truth in it.

[Solar Cycles]

johnholmes, on 31 December 2009 - 10:25 , said:

that might not be as daft as it might at first sound.
the earth's temperatures are about 0.75C higher, overall, than they were 60-70 years ago, so it is possible that might have a ring of truth in it.

True, as no one denies the Earth as got warmer overall John. As you know it's the cause, that produces so much debate!

[Victor Meldrew]

johnholmes, on 31 December 2009 - 10:25 , said:

that might not be as daft as it might at first sound.
the earth's temperatures are about 0.75C higher, overall, than they were 60-70 years ago, so it is possible that might have a ring of truth in it.

Still doesn't ring with me So basically that's a global temp of less than 1C . Winter would be much colder because of that 1c difference? , that's like saying well instead of 3C today it would've been 2C because of global warming. If i freeze water and kept the temp at -50 , if i warm the bath up by 1c it will still be frozen

[johnholmes]

not as simple as you appear to make out Neil.
What I am trying to say is that with a bse line shall we call it some 3/4C degree lower than, say the winters of 47 and 62-63 who knows what effect that 3/4C may have or is having on how the northern winter pans out this winter?
3/4C is quite a significant amount in world terms and the overall energy balance and is not as simple as your comment about 1C on temperatures from day to day.

[Mr_Data]

Saying a season is going to be average rainfall, temperature etc is not good enough for me.

I could say this winter will be average overall and the individual months could all turnout to be average and get plaudits for it, well done old chap if it turns out correct.

Then the following winter I could say average overall again but it could be made up of an extremely mild December, a very cold January and an average February eg the winter of 1828-29.

Well no plaudits from me with this

Another example was the autumn just gone, a dry September, an average October, a washout November.

They should go for general predictions of the individual months ie, we think December is more likely to be colder than average, January milder than average etc. Much better forecast IMO.

Another point, is that they got panned for the BBQ summer comment, actually last winter's forecast should have been panned because winter is a far more disruptive season than summer and yet they got away with it.

[cooling climate]

Optimus Prime, on 30 December 2009 - 22:42 , said:

AGW is strongly backed up by science.

There is a lot of science out there that does not agree with this.
No one denies there has been warming in the last 30 +plus years or at least an acceleration but there
is good science out there to say this is cyclical and coincides with a much greater solar output in the
last 50 years compared to the last few hundred.
Since 1998 temperatures are believed to have flat lined and in the last 3 or 4 years may have even started
to drop.
Any way if this winter carries on in the vein it is heading at the moment then I think this would look very poorly
on the met.
N/hemisphere blocking on the scale it is at the moment -6SD for the AO.
A much more active brew dobson circulation during the summer and autumn.
A much greater increase in ozone over the northern hemisphere than we have seen for many years
A very quite sun.
A El Nino which would enhance ridge building over n/western America.
All of these points should have led them to conclude that n/hemisphere blocking would be more prevelent this
winter and tied in with a El Nino southerly tracking jet + of course a much colder subtropical stratosphere that would
temper the polar vortex's this winter.
Put these all together and we along with Europe could be in for the coldest winter for 20 years or more and yet the
met missed it.
Also it has to be said many met over the pond were talking of a cold winter to come for north and east US + Europe
and this was back in July.
One other point regardless what the rest of the winter is going to be like the CET for England and Wales from the
middle of December to mid January is likely to be the lowest for a very long time and Scotland must surely see a
negative CET for this time period.
So to sum up I think its a very poor show from the Met office although I do appreciate that long range forcasting is
a long way from being a reliable science, but I think there were enough pointers out there that they should have done
a lot better even thus far into the winter.

Edited by cooling climate, 31 December 2009 - 13:57 .

[Optimus Prime]

Cooling Climate I only need to look at your name to come up with a conclusion that you're a denialist of what's factual...so come on lets just stay on topic.

What does make me laugh somewhat about the Metoffice update is that they still claim it hasn't been updated since the 27th November on the seasonal page leading upto the forecast. This could lead one to believe they are spot on so far....

[shuggee]

A subtle reminder that the topic of this thread is in its title. Please stick to that thank you

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Although some may disagree, the MetO deserve all the panning possible. The only thing that signalled a more than likely warmer than average winter was the party line of AGW. They have been poor for sometime now and I agree with Kev, the lack of any sort of detail is quite alarming IMO.

BFTP