273 replies to this topic

[londonsnow]

yes the meto winter forecast is issued at 11am on the 23rd, according to their website. will it suggest a little above or near average temperatures and average rainfall? or will it suggest several spells of deep cold and blizzards for everyone, especially around christmas. i wonder...

[Don]

I know it's forecasting a 'forecast', but I would be suprised if they predict a colder than average Winter, partly because of the developing El Nino conditions. My best guess as to how it will go would be something like this:

'The early signals point to the UK Winter 2009/10 being more likely to be warmer and wetter than average and warmer than Winter 2008/09, but with the risk of colder weather at times'

We will soon see!

[Solar Cycles]

Don, on 20 July 2009 - 20:28 , said:

I know it's forecasting a 'forecast', but I would be suprised if they predict a colder than average Winter, partly because of the developing El Nino conditions. My best guess as to how it will go would be something like this:

'The early signals point to the UK Winter 2009/10 being more likely to be warmer and wetter than average and warmer than Winter 2008/09, but with the risk of colder weather at times'

We will soon see!

I predict it will be way off the mark, as they consistently factor in AGW IMO!!

PS, Is it me or does any one else hate this new layout!

Edited by Solar Cycles, 21 July 2009 - 11:11 .

[karyo]

I will not pay much attention to the Met Office forecast! Simply because they got the autumn 2008 wrong (they went for above average and it was slightly below), the winter forecast wrong (they expected slightly above and it was below average), and the spring forecast (they went for a below average spring and it was above average).

That's a pretty bad record don't you think?

Karyo

[Don]

karyo, on 21 July 2009 - 11:34 , said:

I will not pay much attention to the Met Office forecast! Simply because they got the autumn 2008 wrong (they went for above average and it was slightly below), the winter forecast wrong (they expected slightly above and it was below average), and the spring forecast (they went for a below average spring and it was above average).

That's a pretty bad record don't you think?

Karyo

They haven't done too well with their seasonal forecasts this last year it has to be said.

[johnholmes]

Solar Cycles, on 21 July 2009 - 11:09 , said:

I predict it will be way off the mark, as they consistently factor in AGW IMO!!

once again to repeat they do NOT

[Solar Cycles]

johnholmes, on 21 July 2009 - 13:30 , said:

once again to repeat they do NOT

If my memory serves me right John, you stated you assumed they didn't.

[Thundery wintry showers]

They don't actually factor AGW into their predictions, but rather the fact that temperatures have risen across the globe relative to the 1971-2000 mean, and more so in some regions than others. The cause of the warming is irrelevant here, what matters is its existence.

It will be interesting to see if they factor the El Nino into their predictions. If so I would expect something along the lines of "mild or very mild during early to mid winter but cold spells late in the season".

The MetO have had mixed results with their seasonal forecasts, as per pretty much all forecasters really- they got 2008/09 wrong, but then again their forecast for 2005/06 was pretty good and 2006/07 and 2007/08 weren't bad either.

[Solar Sausage]

North Sea Snow Convection, on 21 July 2009 - 16:47 , said:

You are correct imo- they do factor it in. To illustrate this they make the point in their winter forecasts about colder winters becoming less frequent as a result of climate change. Yes of course short term indicators like ENSO and SST's etc are used to compile the meat of the forecast, but they clearly add a 'climate induced tax percentage' as well in terms of temp expectations

No, they don't factor it in. But the fact that cold winters have become rarer of late, is surely obvious to anyone? Even my goldfish-like attention span has made me aware of that fact. Why on earth would a forecast model for 2010 use summer 1962's input data??

The globe is warmer now because it is; and acknowledging the existence of 'climate change' has nothing to do with AGW. Unless of course, you deny the existence of 'natural cycles'!

[Solar Sausage]

North Sea Snow Convection, on 21 July 2009 - 17:47 , said:

On the basis that the METO fully subscribe to AGW as the principle mechansim behind climate change then the point about less frequent cold winters which they make in their seasonal winter forecasts is surely made within that context.

Not sure what is wrong with saying that.

Apart from the fact that it's entirely unsubstantiated - nothing, I guess.

[johnholmes]

It continues to amaze me that some will not accept that the Met O do NOT factor in GW/AGW at all-full stop.

They do use various factors, NAO, SST's etc but these are what the atmosphere is showing in 2009 NOT comparing it to decades ago. They do comment, as one would expect them to do, that the world climate is warming.
The two can be commented on without assuming or believing that the two are not used coincidentally, or am I expecting too much from some posters.
If you do not believe me, fair enough, e mail them and ask.

[Solar Cycles]

North Sea Snow Convection, on 21 July 2009 - 17:47 , said:

On the basis that the METO fully subscribe to AGW as the principle mechansim behind climate change then the point about less frequent cold winters which they make in their seasonal winter forecasts is surely made within that context.

Not sure what is wrong with saying that.

That was the point I was trying to raise Tamara. We have all seen their seasonal forecast, were they can't help but mention how colder winters are less frequent. Directly or indirectly, they still factor AGW into the forecasts. They are making forecast, based on factors which may or may not, have any influence on our climate, depending on your viewpoint. This IMO, is why they are doomed from the start!

[Thundery wintry showers]

No, as per John's suggestion they use the current climate baseline (including SSTs, ENSO, temperature profiles) as their guide, which in many cases is 0.5C or more above the 1971-2000 mean, and therefore they bear in mind that it is more likely to be above the 1971-2000 average simply because the current baseline is a little higher.

Their long-range forecasts have absolutely nothing to do with AGW.

Edited by Thundery wintry showers, 21 July 2009 - 19:51 .

[Solar Sausage]

johnholmes, on 21 July 2009 - 18:31 , said:

It continues to amaze me that some will not accept that the Met O do NOT factor in GW/AGW at all-full stop.

They do use various factors, NAO, SST's etc but these are what the atmosphere is showing in 2009 NOT comparing it to decades ago. They do comment, as one would expect them to do, that the world climate is warming.
The two can be commented on without assuming or believing that the two are not used coincidentally, or am I expecting too much from some posters.
If you do not believe me, fair enough, e mail them and ask.

I'm surprised that your face hasn't turned blue yet, John.

I don't profess to be able to understand all the ins-and-outs of the MetO's modelling; but, I do understand that it's input must consist of current data only. Why some people persist with the (unsubstantiated) notion that AGW is built-in to the models is beyond me!

Unless, of course, they have an agenda?

Solar Cycles, on 21 July 2009 - 19:42 , said:

That was the point I was trying to raise Tamara. We have all seen their seasonal forecast, were they can't help but mention how colder winters are less frequent. Directly or indirectly, they still factor AGW into the forecasts. They are making forecast, based on factors which may or may not, have any influence on our climate, depending on your viewpoint. This IMO, is why they are doomed from the start!

And, have cold winters become less frequent??

That's an historical fact, Solar. You cannot 'factor it in' to a model. Models don't work like that!

[badboy657]

Pete Tattum, on 21 July 2009 - 19:55 , said:

I'm surprised that your face hasn't turned blue yet, John.

I don't profess to be able to understand all the ins-and-outs of the MetO's modelling; but, I do understand that it's input must consist of current data only. Why some people persist with the (unsubstantiated) notion that AGW is built-in to the models is beyond me!

Unless, of course, they have an agenda?



And, have cold winters become less frequent??

That's an historical fact, Solar. You cannot 'factor it in' to a model. Models don't work like that!

winters have become less cold apart from last winter,

but to be fair there seems to be alot going on in our climate over the last couple of years lots of pattern shifts so just maybe this is linked to solar activity or maybe not but i gonna go for a cold winter again.

cant wait to see the met o winter forecast on thursday,
but im gonna have a stab at there forecast of being above average and above average rainfall.

[Lincs Observation]

Evening all

i suspect that they will have to consider the worrying trend of the displaced jet patterns, if it was me i would defiantly start there. If i was to take a punt i would say slightly cooler than the long term average with a chance of a slight increase in percipitation. In a nut shell a colder winter than last winter.

this is based on my belief that with no long term warming due to 3 pretty poor summers and the fact the jet has been in effect a three year walkabout id say there is a 60% chance of a colder winter to come.

LO

[kold weather]

I suspect as TWS said they will likely go above average but mention that the early winter period will likely be milder with maybe a suggestion of a higher chance of colder spells in the 2nd half of winter.

[badboy657]

Lincs Observation, on 21 July 2009 - 21:06 , said:

Evening all

i suspect that they will have to consider the worrying trend of the displaced jet patterns, if it was me i would defiantly start there. If i was to take a punt i would say slightly cooler than the long term average with a chance of a slight increase in percipitation. In a nut shell a colder winter than last winter.

this is based on my belief that with no long term warming due to 3 pretty poor summers and the fact the jet has been in effect a three year walkabout id say there is a 60% chance of a colder winter to come.

LO

i think your spot on:
the jet seems to have been a big cause in our poor or poorish run of summers and a chilly winter,
and this seems to have continued.

although it may be a theory it seems this started when solar went minimum,
but i would not like to say that is the top reason for jet going walkabouts.

it would seem this trend has carried on and perhapes like you said if this where to continue then another cold winter could be on the cards,

i mean snowfall in the alps in july cant be that common in the last 10years or so lol.

kold weather, on 21 July 2009 - 22:11 , said:

I suspect as TWS said they will likely go above average but mention that the early winter period will likely be milder with maybe a suggestion of a higher chance of colder spells in the 2nd half of winter.

indeed that could be the outcome lol.

but it could well be,
we may have a early start to winter again this year perhapes similar to last winter and even with el nino something is telling me things are very different over the last few years so cold or colder is very possible.