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Storm Risk Discussion Part 3


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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Right this is a new thread for the thundery weather that could occur overnight, my own personal thoughts is that the French stuff will probably be mainly just heavy rain (closer to the coasts I wouldn't be surprised if we do get some lightning, though cannot rule out the odd rumble anywhere in the SE really.) For most though in the SE it'll be just heavy rain, which combined with the frontal system could give a fairly soggy night for those in the SE. Can't also rule out the odd rumble in any heavy burst in the front but once again thats for a few and not likely to be a widespread feature by any means.

Still I may be totally wrong!

Edited by kold weather
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well I'll go for the positive outlook

a couple of hours of decent imported French storms up till 2am or so - scattered but quite widespread :lol:

Right this is a new thread for the thundery weather that could occur overnight, my own personal thoughts is that the French stuff will probably be mainly just heavy rain though cannot rule out the odd rumble anywhere in the SE really, though away from the coast odds of that do drop away somewhat. For most though in the SE it'll be just heavy rain, which combined with the frontal system could give a fairly soggy night for those in the SE. Can't also rule out the odd rumble in any heavy burst in the front but once again thats for a few and not likely to be a widespread feature by any means.

Still I may be totally wrong!

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Posted
  • Location: Maidstone, Kent
  • Location: Maidstone, Kent

Hmm Fast Reply option ain't working!

Anyway, just been outside, it is spitting but the atmosphere i can only describe as scary. Feels like someone is watching you, it smells incredibly damp and although only 16.0C feels a lot more muggy now than it did when the last batch of showers crossed Kent at tea-time. :lol:

Hmm that huge gap in the rain looks like it may be heading to Kent? :lol:

Edited by maidstone weather
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Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)

I said earlier I thought it had gotten quite a bit fresher, but that it may have been the temperature dropping confusing me...well, just been outside again and...

FWOAH does it feel HUMID! Sun gone completely down now, out in a thin t-shirt and not the slightest feeling of coldness/coolness, just warmth and moisture.

This has to be a good sign - but, will wait and see what comes off!

Hmm Fast Reply option ain't working!

Anyway, just been outside, it is spitting but the atmosphere i can only describe as scary. Feels like someone is watching you, it smells incredibly damp and although only 16.0C feels a lot more muggy now than it did when the last batch of showers crossed Kent at tea-time.

Yes same here too - plus there doesnt seem to be a lot of potency snapped from the encroaching French imports either :lol:

Just hope the humidity over here will give them some punch.

Edited by Harry
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maidstone weather ..

LOADED GUN :lol:

Hmm Fast Reply option ain't working!

Anyway, just been outside, it is spitting but the atmosphere i can only describe as scary. Feels like someone is watching you, it smells incredibly damp and although only 16.0C feels a lot more muggy now than it did when the last batch of showers crossed Kent at tea-time. :lol:

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Indeed MW, dew points have raised if anything from this afternoon which is why I'm a little more confident that the cells will hold much better then the earlier batch, though I'm still to be convinced about how thundery they will be away from the first 20 miles of land.

Very humid out there I agree, to some degree it is indeed a loaded gun, sadly temps would have to be about 21-23C right now for that gun to be tirggered so to speak like it has been over France today.

Edited by kold weather
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we've been here before ...

cells seeminly peetering out over the channel - even the coastal areas not a lot...

then early hours bang - explosion of cells 20-30 miles inland

there is a chance

Indeed MW, dew points have raised if anything from this afternoon which is why I'm a little more confident that the cells will hold much better then the earlier batch, though I'm still to be convinced about how thundery they will be away from the first 20 miles of land.
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Posted
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
Anyway, just been outside, it is spitting but the atmosphere i can only describe as scary. Feels like someone is watching you, it smells incredibly damp and although only 16.0C feels a lot more muggy now than it did when the last batch of showers crossed Kent at tea-time. :lol:

DP's are, incredibly, rising in some places according to some commentators over on TWO. This fits in with the atmopshere profile from GFS.

However, like always, we need a trigger; LI will be around at above 900hPa to help initiate that CAPE, but I was rather hoping for some shear - but, as you say, absolutely dead still out - even getting misty in with the trees, too.

My call, now, is 50/50; with the 18z (it's t+6 should help us out a lot) and radar/sferic evidence, things might change. Not much we can reason with anymore, unfortunately, and the 12z forecast now feels a little stale. Things close for certain by 3am, I feel.

Edited by VillagePlank
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Posted
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL

Why does everyone in the midlands seem so confident about storms tonight its all died out in SE england its just heavy/ torriential showers there now with the odd rumble ofm thunder.

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15/16C dewpoints around London area

not bad ....

DP's are, incredibly, rising in some places according to some commentators over on TWO. This fits in with the atmopshere profile from GFS.

However, like always, we need a trigger; LI will be around at above 900hPa to help initiate that CAPE, but I was rather hoping for some shear - but, as you say, absolutely dead still out - even getting misty in with the trees, too.

My call, now, is 50/50; with the 18z (it's t+6 should help us out a lot) and radar/sferic evidence, things might change. Not much we can reason with anymore, unfortunately, and the 12z forecast now feels a little stale.

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Posted
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Storms and Snow
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast

Drizzling here ! , very strange from earlier downpours

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Posted
  • Location: Tonbridge,Kent
  • Location: Tonbridge,Kent
sferics on ATD headed for West Sussex coastline by the looks of things

Can see lightning off to my south /southwest

Edited by TN9
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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Never rule anything out is my moto with weather Markabuckley and your right we have seen it before. I just think this time the main region of instablity for thunderstorms is in the main just to our SE/E though the South coast is close enough to benefit as we saw this morning and to some degree this afternoon.

Radar suggests mainly mod-heavy rain with the odd embedded heavier rain which no doubt would be a thunderstorm. Somewhere will get a thunderstorm within the MCS, just not huge amount of us unless it tracks through a densely populated region.

EDIT-maybe a little cell heading into west Kent, looks decent enough though whether or not its thundery I'm not sure.

Edited by kold weather
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Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)

I keep getting signs which are either a positive omen, or cruel - in order of occurrence: (non-meteorologically related btw)

1. There was a lot of thunder from a film on TV from the other room earlier

2. When I was playing MarioKarts on the Wii earlier, I KEPT being shrunk by those poxy lightning bolts

3. Just watching Escala perform on BGT, and what was in the background - lightning bolts.

Plus the humidity now, both outside and in the house is very oppressive!

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Posted
  • Location: Didcot - Oxfordshire,UK
  • Location: Didcot - Oxfordshire,UK

I just been outside checked temp. Currently at 20oC little breeze very cloudy still (of what i can see). But no sign of a thunderstorm. I did however, smell a bit of rain the distances so who knows.

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Posted
  • Location: West/Central London (W11) 27m (88ft) ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and thunderstorms!! (With the odd gale thrown in)
  • Location: West/Central London (W11) 27m (88ft) ASL

Latest radar shows the band of ppn to be holding it's strength at the mo, while it seems to be triggering some activity inland (to the south-west of Reading).

Edited by Sno' problem
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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
Can see lightning off to my south /southwest

Yep fits with radar which does show a small cell with maybe another cell developing right behind it which look decent enough, you guys may well be the lucky ones!

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Posted
  • Location: Ratby, Leicester.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms
  • Location: Ratby, Leicester.
Why does everyone in the midlands seem so confident about storms tonight its all died out in SE england its just heavy/ torriential showers there now with the odd rumble ofm thunder.

I still stand by my prediction that the Midlands may get a Thunderstorm tonight, if not a storm then at least some heavy rain. When I say Midlands though I don't mean Gloucestershire or Worcestershire. That is Western England to me :lol: When I say Midlands I mean Leicester, Rutland, Nottingham, Derby, Coventry, Birmingham, Northampton, Milton Keynes.

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Posted
  • Location: Folkestone, Kent
  • Location: Folkestone, Kent

Just seen a flash of lightning - thought it was fireworks that someone has been letting off until I heard the unmistakable growl of Thunder - again!?

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Posted
  • Location: Tonbridge,Kent
  • Location: Tonbridge,Kent
seriously? :lol: :lol:

Yeah DP here is 14.6C

yea honest,in distance quite a lot,stood outside to have a fag and see four or five distant flashes ,you should see it soon :)

thought it could be the trains as the station is just down the road and they let off fair old flashes,but it was wasn't

Edited by TN9
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Posted
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Storms and Snow
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
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Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)

Thought I saw a very distant flash too, but not sure if it was a train line.

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