159 replies to this topic

[Gray-Wolf]

I'm not wishing to be confrontational here BFTP but all of that water in front of the Bering straight is just 'ice water' at the moment. Because of the anomalous ice spurt in that area this March I've been watching it drift and melt out. The purples on the left of Bering represent a rapidly decaying flotilla of single year ice (check yesterdays MODIS images and you'll see that 'milky, swirly' pattern that melted ice leaves in the ocean). I'm sure this 'chilled water' doesn't extend down too far and I'm not sure at what depths temps are taken for the PDO measurements but it can't just be the surface can it?

The only splodge of cold ocean that doesn't correspond to ice melt/cover is the one off NW U.S.A./Alaska.

Conversely the SW tip of Greenland has, historically , been tempered by ice cover and seeing as none formed this year (and has open water already) it shows a positive anom.

So we have areas not usually ice covered (to this extent) showing 'cold' and areas that should be ice covered but aren't showing 'warm'.

Edited by Gray-Wolf, 13 April 2010 - 08:25 .

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Gray-Wolf, on 13 April 2010 - 08:24 , said:

I'm not wishing to be confrontational here BFTP but all of that water in front of the Bering straight is just 'ice water' at the moment. Because of the anomalous ice spurt in that area this March I've been watching it drift and melt out. The purples on the left of Bering represent a rapidly decaying flotilla of single year ice (check yesterdays MODIS images and you'll see that 'milky, swirly' pattern that melted ice leaves in the ocean). I'm sure this 'chilled water' doesn't extend down too far and I'm not sure at what depths temps are taken for the PDO measurements but it can't just be the surface can it?

The only splodge of cold ocean that doesn't correspond to ice melt/cover is the one off NW U.S.A./Alaska.

Conversely the SW tip of Greenland has, historically , been tempered by ice cover and seeing as none formed this year (and has open water already) it shows a positive anom.

So we have areas not usually ice covered (to this extent) showing 'cold' and areas that should be ice covered but aren't showing 'warm'.

Well last year the cold anomaly around the southern western tip of Greenland was due to amadas of iceflos coming off the melting Greenland. Has Greenland stopped melting then??? You can't keep moving the goalposts GW.

BFTP

[Gray-Wolf]

Agreed BFTP.

With ice flow between Greenland uninterupted all winter we don't have blocks of perennial and calved glacier bergs locked in winter ice that is just letting go now and flowing south .Check the NE Tip of Greenland and you'll see what I mean with rounded perennial bergs set amidst a slush of melting single year ice if you compare this with those 'warm patches' off SW Greenland you'll see the difference.

Anyhow we'll be getting the March PDO figure soon enough won't we?

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Gray-Wolf, on 13 April 2010 - 08:48 , said:

Agreed BFTP.

Anyhow we'll be getting the March PDO figure soon enough won't we?

What I have posted is a classic -ve PDO set up, that's all I can say for now.

BFTP

[Iceberg]

Latest ENSO figures are aroudn the +1 to +1.1 depending on who's taking the reading.
This is approx a decline of .2C from the end of Jan, so still going down, but not a very large rate, more a very gradual cool off from the strong figures.
Spring is of course the time of large ENSO changes and just as we had the strong 98 El Nino followed by a strong La Nina, there are signs that a strong La Nina might follow come next winter.

The odds are still firmly in favour of a neutral ENSO from June onwards, the NASA GMAO model has a La Nina approaching -2 from October onwards, ECM is hinting at a weak La Nina along with the NOAA model.

A pretty even split amongst the Dynamic and stats models as well.

However Any potential La Nina is still a long way off and we are still in a moderate El Nino come mid April.

Re PDO looking at the SST chart there are aspects of both warm and cold phase in there IMO, you'd be hard pushed to get a negative PDO with a moderate El Nino, even a decaying one, particularly given that SOI has only recently turned positive.

[Gray-Wolf]

I know the thread isn't PDO based but I do not feel that we are -ve PDO. Once the ice has gone then most of that 'cold pool' around Bering will go too. The lone blob off NW U.S.A. is the onlt thin 'anomalous' out there. March figures will soon be out anyway and we'll see if we've had a big turnaround.

[kold weather]

Interesting data from the Aussies and NOAA both have the temps now down to 0.8c in the 3.4 zone, so we are now offically in the weak category, at least in the weeklies, though still got some way to go for the tri-monthlies to get that low!

Condtions are still cnodusive for slow cooling towards nuetral, at least on the weeklies in the next 6-8 weeks...

[Gray-Wolf]

Wonders never cease! I actually enjoyed an article in WUWT!!!!! The main thrust was that Nino's of the Modoki flavour

http://wattsupwithth...nina-this-year/

hardly ever are followed by a Nina event so it looks like the temps won't fall away as some were hoping for........

[kold weather]

Very interesting article GW.

Weekly temps now down to neutral at 0.5C...we have some impressive cold subsurface temps and a cold PDO region which would help to destroy any traces of the El Nino. However I've been far from convinced we are going to go into a La Nina.

Saying that you can't really argue with thew models thus far, esp given they are handling the decline very well indeed and most go weak La Nina still.

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Gray-Wolf, on 02 May 2010 - 11:30 , said:

Wonders never cease! I actually enjoyed an article in WUWT!!!!! The main thrust was that Nino's of the Modoki flavour

http://wattsupwithth...nina-this-year/

hardly ever are followed by a Nina event so it looks like the temps won't fall away as some were hoping for........

Its an interesting one, but -ve AO and NAO are hardly the case with mod to strong El Nino winters. I wouldn't want to call it but the perturbation cycle may make the difference. That is a lot of cold water in he Pacific!!

BFTP

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Well the latest Unisys shows a collapse of the El Nino going on, surely neutral for summer looks favourite now and a growing cold spread within the Pacific as the -ve PDO re asserts. I think we will see a continued global temp drop from here on in now as we have seen the peak in Feb/March. April slightly down so it will be interesting to see if we continue the downward movement...I think we will as Nino and record -ve AO accounted for the warm months.

BFTP

[kold weather]

Also BFTP I think actually the bigger factor right now for the warmth since Feb/March is actually the amazing anomalies in the tropical Atlantic, seriously they look like something you'd find in a strong El nino at the moment, thats how warm they are!

So combine a El Nino that moderate, a huge -ve AO and a SUPER warm (record breaking by far!) Tropical Atlantic and your going to have some high temps, to be honest I'm surprised more records haven't fallen!

Anyway, as you say the El Nino is just about done, for the summer I'd call neutral but trending cooler nuetral towards probably -0.5C, maybe not quite breaking the cusp of La Nina. Still we shall see as always!

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

http://weather.unisy...ce/sst_anom.gif[/img]

Yes that is good bye El Nino. That is quite a rapid looking decline since April and increasing amounts of colder water. If this keeps up a La Nina as a few models suggest could be on the cards....but lets see how this develops further.


BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST, 18 May 2010 - 15:39 .

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

here




Roy believes the same. this year will be very interesting. And as early as now the heads up for me is a cold autumn and very cold winter 10/11.

BFTP

[Yorkshiresnows]

BLAST FROM THE PAST, on 22 May 2010 - 09:00 , said:

here




Roy believes the same. this year will be very interesting. And as early as now the heads up for me is a cold autumn and very cold winter 10/11.

BFTP

Hi Blast,

Just been perusing Roy Spencer's site and almost finished his book ...... personally I'm now more than 90% certain that man made global warming is a very minor component to what we have experienced. The change over in the global ocean temoperatures is quite amazing. There really is only one way this can go now ...... thats to a cooler regime in my opinion.



The PDO and low cloud cover are key elements that with solar activity provide a compelling argument for a major major role of natural cycles in the late 20th century warming and which point to a general cooling trend over the coming 20-30 years.

Satellite data have shown that radiative forcing as well as feedback need to be factored into the IPCC models for climate change, that they do not ... and only deal with feedback is the achilles heel of climate modalling. It will be intersting to see, even this year how the predicted to actual temperature plots go.

Also, just seen Joe laminate floori's call for a cold European winter, ..... nice early call ....!!!

Y.S

Edited by Yorkshiresnows, 22 May 2010 - 09:13 .

[Gray-Wolf]

http://www.scienceda...00521192533.htm

Hmmm. I don't know about Mr Spencer's lone voice but the Argo Fleet seem to be showing all the oceans absorbing far more heat than they put out (since 93').

NOAA seem to think this shows quite a strong 'climate signal'.

As has been mooted before if ocean temps continue to rise then La Nina will cease to exist as the temp thresholds to call one will never be breached. The same could be said of the negative PDO (and the milding of that phase over the past 3 major -ve episodes).

[BornFromTheVoid]

Gray-Wolf, on 22 May 2010 - 09:38 , said:

http://www.scienceda...00521192533.htm

Hmmm. I don't know about Mr Spencer's lone voice but the Argo Fleet seem to be showing all the oceans absorbing far more heat than they put out (since 93').

NOAA seem to think this shows quite a strong 'climate signal'.

As has been mooted before if ocean temps continue to rise then La Nina will cease to exist as the temp thresholds to call one will never be breached. The same could be said of the negative PDO (and the milding of that phase over the past 3 major -ve episodes).

Surely the ENSO events are based more on the difference in ssts between one area and another as apposed to the actual sst? So no matter how high ssts get, you could still get El Nino and La Nina events?

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Yorkshiresnows, on 22 May 2010 - 09:12 , said:

Hi Blast,

Just been perusing Roy Spencer's site and almost finished his book ...... personally I'm now more than 90% certain that man made global warming is a very minor component to what we have experienced. The change over in the global ocean temoperatures is quite amazing. There really is only one way this can go now ...... thats to a cooler regime in my opinion.



The PDO and low cloud cover are key elements that with solar activity provide a compelling argument for a major major role of natural cycles in the late 20th century warming and which point to a general cooling trend over the coming 20-30 years.

Satellite data have shown that radiative forcing as well as feedback need to be factored into the IPCC models for climate change, that they do not ... and only deal with feedback is the achilles heel of climate modalling. It will be intersting to see, even this year how the predicted to actual temperature plots go.

Also, just seen Joe laminate floori's call for a cold European winter, ..... nice early call ....!!!

Y.S

Hi YS
We saw how global temps reacted to the La Nina in 08 and they have reacted warmth wise to the significant El Nino and record -ve AO. -ve PDO really re-asserting itself and the perturbation cycle will bring a 36 year period of Nina Domination or even a in El Nino a -ve NAO and -ve AO are likely to persist distorting the Nino signal we have become used to. The El Nino collapse is just that now, a collapse. Prob won't see a real cooling response until Aug.

BFTP

[kold weather]

NaDamantaSam, on 22 May 2010 - 11:58 , said:

Surely the ENSO events are based more on the difference in ssts between one area and another as apposed to the actual sst? So no matter how high ssts get, you could still get El Nino and La Nina events?

Exactly, because it is the thermal difference that creates the change in the pattern, so therefore even if sea surface temps do warm the SST difrference will still respond like a La nina would and the planet would cool down as a result.

I can see this even eventually becoming a low end moderate event during winter, though I think the current signal is more of a response to the rapid decline of El nino rather than a true La nina developing, as I think BFTP has suggested, at least for now.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Looks like a moderate La Nina could develop by autumn and it will likely be September time when global temp drop response be very visible. The turnaround has been quite rapid and with a strong -ve PDO now taking grip. Joe B mentioned about the thicker ice at the pole compared to recent years possibly down the PDO phase.

BFTP