159 replies to this topic

[Iceberg]

I thought quite hard about whether to put this in a different thread or create a new one, (which at this time in the morning for me is very difficult). But I didn't want to contaminate any of the research threads. Coupled with this we know that there is a very big ENSO Global temperature correlation and maybe an ENSO climate correlation, throw in the current PDO cycle etc and this starts to be rather important.
By the way this isn't my thread and should be treated as you want to treat it, but I will try to update it with forecasts, predictions, figures and thoughts.

So to start off with.

Attached are the past ENSO episodes
Where we have been in recent years.
Where we are now.
ECM forecasts.

There are alot of good sites including the BOM but NCEP is my favourite.

http://www.cpc.noaa..../MJO/enso.shtml

So where are we ?

We are just leaving a mini La Nina (A La nina being called if 5 consecutive 3 monthly means are less than or equal to -0.5 i.e Jan/Feb/Mar will be one Feb/Mar/Apr will be 2). We have had 4 now but the fifth will almost certainly be less preventing a real La Nina from occuring.

For the first time in nearly 2 years ALL sectors of El Nino from 1 to 4 are positive. Forecasts over where we will be over the coming months vary quite widely from Neutral though to +2.0 which is almost on par with the massive El Nino of 97/98.

I've plotted on where we are currently on the latest ECM predictions. It's far to say that sea temps are warming at the top of the current ECM estimates and the forecasts over the next month or two will be very interesting.

Attached Thumbnails

• 
• 
• 
• 
• 

[Android]

Global map of SST anomalies as of last thursday:

http://www.osdpd.noa...ht.5.7.2009.gif

You can compare for other dates here:
http://www.osdpd.noa.../SST/climo.html

They also get updated twice a week (thursdays and mondays)

[johnholmes]

tks for both posts folks-interesting-yet another part of a jigsaw that never seems to get solved!

[Iceberg]

A bit of an update on ENSO.

Below are the currently weekly figures for the various areas.

4 = 0.5

3.4 = 0.5

3 =0.4

1+2 =.3

Remember that 0.5 or above is classifed as an El Nino figure and that 5 combined months need to be recorded for an official El Nino.

Also below the latest Forecasts combined.

CFS, NASA and AUS are all going for a serious El Nino to start in June and go all the way through until the begining of next year. NASA is particular is still going for another 1998 event.

It should be noted that there is still the very clear split between the forecast models(dynamic) and the Statistical models. It is unusual for an El Nino to form like this as this time, but the drivers are certainly there.

The general %'s stand at a less than 10% of La Nina by Autumn, a 40-45% chance of Neutral and 50% chance of El Nino.

On the prediction graph below I've plotted the 0.5 that exists currently again which seems to automatically discount the statisticals IMO and very much favours the CFS, NASA and AUS. I would add the caveat that this is the 3 month average of Apr/May/June but I think it will be pretty accurate.

ECM and the updated 3 month rolling figure will be posted up when it comes out in the next 7-8 days or so.

Attached Thumbnails

• 

[Iceberg]

Also taken from the Aus Bom. (one of the three areas of ENSO excellence IMO with CPC, BOM and EMC).

"Climate indicators across the equatorial Pacific are currently neutral, although recent trends are consistent with the very early stages of a developing El Niño. These will continue to be monitored very closely during the next few months. The equatorial Pacific Ocean has continued to warm over the past few weeks and the SOI has fallen rapidly to an approximate 30-day value of −7; the value for April was +9. Also, the Trade winds have remained weaker than average across most of the Pacific.

All international climate models predict further warming of the Pacific Ocean sea surface, with most forecasting sea surface temperatures to remain in the neutral range until at least mid-winter. Half of the models surveyed are predicting that this warming will be sufficient to see the development of El Niño conditions later in 2009. However, the southern autumn is the "predictability barrier" for model predictions, with skill levels at their minimum, so model outputs should be used with caution.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), as measured by the Dipole Mode Index (DMI), has become increasingly positive over the last month. It is too early to tell whether this is the beginning of a sustained trend, but late autumn and winter is the typical development period for an IOD event. This will also be monitored closely. "

Here's a graph of the SOI.

Attached Thumbnails

• 

[johnholmes]

this is another top quality link-one I use in my lrf work
http://iri.columbia..../technical.html

[badboy657]

enso could this ruin our chances of another winter like 08/09?

and it looks certain to happen.

[sundog]

badboy657, on 31 May 2009, 10:46 AM, said:

enso could this ruin our chances of another winter like 08/09?

and it looks certain to happen.

Well i dont want to be writing off next winter in June but if next winter is an El Nino one the prospects for a cold winter or even an average one surely cannot be good. Time and time again El Nino winters have been poor for cold lovers, in the British isles anyway.

[badboy657]

i know every el nino winter is crap.
oh well so much for the 10year cooler cycle people where banging on about last winter well some anyway not from this forum,
but i herd talk about it mind you it is summer.

lol

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

badboy657, on 1 Jun 2009, 11:02 PM, said:

i know every el nino winter is crap.
oh well so much for the 10year cooler cycle people where banging on about last winter well some anyway not from this forum,
but i herd talk about it mind you it is summer.

lol

Way too early and no guarantee on how long/short this El NINO will be. No not all El Nino winters mean mild winter, it is about a 50/50 split over the 20th century....so not a well thought out response.

BFTP

[tundra]

badboy657, on 1 Jun 2009, 11:02 PM, said:

i know every el nino winter is crap.
oh well so much for the 10year cooler cycle people where banging on about last winter well some anyway not from this forum,
but i herd talk about it mind you it is summer.

lol

If there is a el nino and it is only weak to moderate coupled with a -qbo and a quiet sun then a very good chance of a very interesting winter.
A strong el nino (i don't think there will be imho) then winter cancel.

[Iceberg]

The CPC's 3 month ENSO average which is made up of Mar/Apr/May has gone from -0.5 to -0.1 this is a big jump in this index.

[Iceberg]

Iceberg, on 31 May 2009, 08:13 AM, said:

A bit of an update on ENSO.

Below are the currently weekly figures for the various areas.

4 = 0.5

3.4 = 0.5

3 =0.4

1+2 =.3

As of the latest week they are

4 = 0.5

3.4 = 0.4

3 =0.4

1+2 =0.5

Also according to NOAA
http://www.cpc.ncep....ry/ensodisc.pdf
The ENSO alert system has been raised to El Nino Watch from Neutral
and
"Conditions are favourable for a transistion from ENSO-Neutral to ENSO-El Nino conditions from June-August."

The evidence is certainly increasing for a possible Monthly start of El Nino from the 3 month period May/Jun/Jul (basically June)onwards.

Although to balance this out there is still uncertainty as to whether this will happen and the level of El Nino that might materialise.

Upper ocean heat content is the highest for a considerable period of time.

Attached Thumbnails

• 

[Iceberg]

Iceberg, on 7 Jun 2009, 09:11 AM, said:

As of the latest week they are

4 = 0.5

3.4 = 0.4

3 =0.4

1+2 =0.5

I don't normally do weekly updates but the latest figures released today by CPC NASA give the following very large increases.

4 = 0.5
3.4 = 0.5
3 = 0.7
1+2 = 0.5

So ALL areas are now recording El Nino type anomalies and the strongest for some considerable time.

[Gray-Wolf]

And what of the PDO??? the folk who do not witness change have been telling us of the state of the NE Pacific for a while now (whether it started in 98 or not!!!) and the PDO-ve apparently mitigates the El-Nino's strength.

I, as you may well be aware, feel that things are altering in so far as the 'old' major climate phases are concerned. We may have only been measuring the Arctic oscillation for 7 years but I'm sure it's influence on the running of the northern hemisphere's climatic swings and roundabouts has been around for longer than this.

I would love to hear from folk, who have a better understanding than mine, as to how common the stuttering 'on/off' PDO is and why this should be presenting now if not a direct response to the new regime in the Arctic.

Sorry if I'm off topic here Ice but with the PDO being muted as a major influence on El-Nino/La-Nina I'd love to know more, especially over this latest PDO-ve phase as it did seemed to squish the last Nino event and help strengthen the Nina events we've experienced over the past couple of years.

[Iceberg]

PDO has in the past been a real surpressor of El Nino and the last negative PDO didn't register a single major El Nino event I believe.

Tbh I am yet to be convinced that the 40 year run is the norm for PDO shifts nor that we are currently in a real negative PDO situation I think we need another 5 years or so to prove conclusively.

IRI update today.

The equatorial Pacific has warmed to the borderline of weak El Niño conditions. During the Jun-Aug season there is an approximately 56% probability of at least weak El Niño conditions, and a 43% probability of retaining ENSO-neutral conditions. Probabilities for El Niño rise to near or slightly greater than 60% for the remainder of 2009, with probabilities for ENSO-neutral conditions approximately 35 to 40%.

I've also included the ECM predictions which show that they have been really underestimating the arrival of this El Nino, also how closely so far this is looking like 97/98.

ECM is also going for El Nino conditions to persist through the rest of the year (at average).

These are all still predictions though.

Attached Thumbnails

• 
• 
• 

[Solar Sausage]

There does seem to be a quite steep gradient just now. Maybe we'll have another 'big' one?

[Iceberg]

Iceberg, on 15 Jun 2009, 04:30 PM, said:

I don't normally do weekly updates but the latest figures released today by CPC NASA give the following very large increases.

4 = 0.5
3.4 = 0.5
3 = 0.7
1+2 = 0.5

So ALL areas are now recording El Nino type anomalies and the strongest for some considerable time.

Another big increase in the ENSO figures over a single week.

4 = 0.6
3.4 = 0.7
3 = 0.8
1+2 = 0.9

[Gray-Wolf]

To save me having to trawl could the folk who dissed the Hanson predictions for a large Nino event by the end of 09/early 10 hold up there hands please? I've got a strange feeling that they were the same folk calling a halt to AGW and plummet into global cooling which, if things continue in the equitorial Pacific as they are at present, will seem a little foolish by this time next year.

Ice, I take on board your feelings on the PDO-ve but it would seem a close fit if the phase did start 10yrs back.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Iceberg, on 22 Jun 2009, 08:52 PM, said:

Another big increase in the ENSO figures over a single week.

4 = 0.6
3.4 = 0.7
3 = 0.8
1+2 = 0.9

Yes its rapid, timing is wrong as you have pointed out but I'd like to bet that it will behave as GWO has forecast...rapid arrival and shortlived.

BFTP