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Does A Cold Winter Herald A Warm/settled Summer?


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#1 Mondy

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Posted 11 December 2008 - 18:11

Historically speaking, does a cold winter generally mean a warm summer is to follow? I don't know if this can be proved using archived charts or historical data, but be interested to know. In other words, how many warm/hot summers over the past 100 years have followed a cold winter the year previously.

I think that makes sense :)

Edited by Delta X-Ray, 11 December 2008 - 18:11 .


#2 Bottesford

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Posted 11 December 2008 - 18:29

I suspect there is little to no link between winter weather and summer weather but I'd be happy to see some stats!
I live in hope this winter will be followed by a very hot summer - but that's just my personl preference!

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2012: 26.8c @ 1553 24th July // -5.0c @ 0720 11th February
2011: 31.0c @ 1245 27th June // -3.9c @ 0821 21st January
2010: 29.0c @ 1633 23rd May // -9.3c @ 0804 7th December
2009: 29.7c @ 1633 1st July // -2.5c @ 0742 7th February
2008: 27.6c @ 1512 28th July // -4.1c @ 0324 19th February
2007: 30.0c @ 1702 5th August // -3.6c @ 0552 7th February
2006: 33.9c @ 1804 17th July // -2.2c @ 0652 5th April (data from April 4th onwards only)

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#3 johnholmes

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Posted 11 December 2008 - 18:46

absolutely no link whatever just the same as one that a cold winter follows a hot summer

Edited by johnholmes, 11 December 2008 - 18:46 .


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#4 Thundery wintry showers

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Posted 11 December 2008 - 18:53

Conversely, there is a positive correlation between cold winters and cool summers. I think this relationship is due to the fact that when we are in a period of cool climate and/or have low SSTs around Britain, it tends to be be cool all year round, rather than cold winter synoptics leading to cold summer synoptics.

It is certainly possible to get a cold winter followed by a warm summer. 1947 and 1955 were very good examples, while the exceptional hot summer of 1995 was followed by a fairly cold winter in 1995/96- also summer 1996 then turned out quite warm away from Ireland and north Scotland.

There was a recent study suggesting that positive NAO is inversely related to summer precipitation, but as it was based on recent data it may well have been biased by the dry summers and +ve NAO winters of the 1990s. I noted that it quoted 1997 as a good example of the -ve NAO, wet summer pattern and 1984 as a good example of +ve NAO, dry summer, when 1997 was hardly a typical wet summer, nor 1984 a typical +ve NAO winter.

So in short, I don't think this winter's weather will have any bearing on the coming summer's weather- the probability of a warm/cold summer is dependent on regional and global circulation and temperature patterns, and probably has little or no connection with the preceding winter.

Edited by Thundery wintry showers, 11 December 2008 - 18:54 .

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#5 MP-R

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Posted 11 December 2008 - 19:58

I guess the most recent example would be the winter of 2005/2006 followed by summer 2006! A cold winter was followed by a record-breaking summer.

Summer 2014 (upto 31st July):

 

Highest Temp: 30.5C (24/07)
Lowest Temp: 08.6C (04/06)
Sunniest Day: 14.3hrs (21/06)
Wettest Day: 20.2mm (04/06) 
Thunder Days: 6 

 

Year 2014 (upto 31st July):

Highest Max: 30.5C (24/07)
Lowest Max: 03.7C (30/01)
Highest Min: 18.6C (18/07)
Lowest Min: -02.8C (12/01)
Total Rain: 690.3mm

Wettest Day: 31.2mm (05/02)
Frosty Days: 10
Snowfall Days: 1 
Snowlie Days: 0 


Thunder Days: 14 ( 01/03 / 01/25 / 02/11 / 03/27 / 04/02 / 04/27 / 05/19 / 05/22 / 06/07 / 06/08 / 06/27 / 07/08 / 07/18 / 07/19 ) 

 

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#6 johnholmes

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Posted 11 December 2008 - 20:05

and for everyone that seems to fit there are probably 4 or 5 that don't, so a success rate of 1 in 5 is no use statistically; it may be much longer odds than that.

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#7 andy_leics22

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Posted 11 December 2008 - 20:20

I guess the most recent example would be the winter of 2005/2006 followed by summer 2006! A cold winter was followed by a record-breaking summer.


A cold winter? I don't remember much snow here... Was it lower than average overall though?
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#8 maidstone weather

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Posted 11 December 2008 - 20:24

As the summer of 2003 was exceptional with heat, (38.5C recorded at Brogdale, near Faversham (Kent) on August 10th), I was wondering if anyone knew what the winter of 2002 was like in terms of cold? :)
Winter 09/10:

Snow Days:
14 (16 lying days)
16 Dec = light snow during the afternoon and evening, 1cm covering. Soon melted as snow turned to rain.
17 Dec = moderate snow during the evening gave 1cm covering again.
18 Dec = heavy snowfall gave a further 7cm between 4am and 6am.
19 Dec = light snow flurry during the late evening gave a dusting.
20 Dec = light snow gave a further 1cm during the early hours of the morning.
21 Dec = moderate snow showers gave a further 1cm during the 'dawn hours'.
31 Dec = rain showers turned to sleet in the evening.
01 Jan = light snow showers during the early hours gave 0.5cm covering by dawn.
03 Jan = light snow flurries during the day, persistent light snow during evening gave 0.5cm powdery snow by midnight.
05 Jan = light to moderate snow during the evening gave 2cm between 20:30-23:00
06 Jan = outbreaks of light snow throughout the day, turning much heavier during the evening gave a further 5cm.
07 Jan = 100 mins solid of light-mod snow gave a further 3cm.
08 Jan = snow showers during the day gave a further 2cm.
09 Jan = snow showers during the early hours gave a further 2cm.

2009:
Thunderstorms
: 9 (5 overhead)
14 Apr, 25 May, 15 Jun, 26 Jun, 3rd Jul, 7th Jul, 16th Jul, 24th Jul



#9 MP-R

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Posted 11 December 2008 - 21:11

A cold winter? I don't remember much snow here... Was it lower than average overall though?


No, there wasn't a lot of snow but there were frequent periods of cold from January through to the last week of March. It was a frustrating February because it snowed everyday consecutively from 22nd-28th with no snow settling but it came properly on the 1st. The next good snowfall came on the 12th of March and then a two-week long cold spell ending on the 24th.

It was certainly a cold winter but probably not remembered as a snowy one. It was definitely below-average here! :)

Summer 2014 (upto 31st July):

 

Highest Temp: 30.5C (24/07)
Lowest Temp: 08.6C (04/06)
Sunniest Day: 14.3hrs (21/06)
Wettest Day: 20.2mm (04/06) 
Thunder Days: 6 

 

Year 2014 (upto 31st July):

Highest Max: 30.5C (24/07)
Lowest Max: 03.7C (30/01)
Highest Min: 18.6C (18/07)
Lowest Min: -02.8C (12/01)
Total Rain: 690.3mm

Wettest Day: 31.2mm (05/02)
Frosty Days: 10
Snowfall Days: 1 
Snowlie Days: 0 


Thunder Days: 14 ( 01/03 / 01/25 / 02/11 / 03/27 / 04/02 / 04/27 / 05/19 / 05/22 / 06/07 / 06/08 / 06/27 / 07/08 / 07/18 / 07/19 ) 

 

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#10 Thundery wintry showers

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Posted 11 December 2008 - 22:33

Winter 2005/06 had close to average temperature across Britain as a whole, with a NW-SE split- the SE was fairly cold and the NW was fairly mild. It is remembered for being a cold one partly because of the southeast bias and partly because it was preceded by an exceptionally cold second half of November and followed by exceptional cold during the first two-thirds of March.

As for snow, the only widespread lying snow during the winter quarter occurred during the brief easterly outbreak on 27-29 December, when much of eastern England had a snow cover, of appreciable depth in some coastal areas. Other widespread lying snow events were confined to November and more especially March. I recall a couple of half-hearted easterlies, one in early January and one in late February, that only delivered localised snowfalls.

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#11 Mondy

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Posted 11 December 2008 - 22:43

I know many on here like to compare charts/data (historical) - so is it a given the above replies are gospel? Or can someone dig a little deeper and show that some cold winters of yesteryear do tie in with hot summers the following year?

Proof appears few and far between so far. Anyone can take a reply at face value.

There is no hidden agenda in this topic, just curious if truth be told.

#12 Don

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Posted 11 December 2008 - 23:25

As the summer of 2003 was exceptional with heat, (38.5C recorded at Brogdale, near Faversham (Kent) on August 10th), I was wondering if anyone knew what the winter of 2002 was like in terms of cold? :)


Winter 2002/03 was slightly above the 71-00 average overall

December 2002 CET 5.7 (+0.6)
January 2003 CET 4.5 (+0.3)
February 2003 CET 3.9 (-0.3)

:)

#13 CatchMyDrift

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Posted 12 December 2008 - 00:01

:)

I just typed out a huge reply and the forum dumped me out.

So to cut a long story short:

1995 in the West of Scotland had a very very hot summer followed by an exceptionally cold December. Was that just a freak (I think it was!!)

#14 Mondy

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Posted 12 December 2008 - 00:13

:)


very very hot summer followed by an exceptionally cold December.


What was the following Summer like? Which is what the topic suggests ;- )

Does A Cold Winter Herald A Warm/settled Summer?



#15 CatchMyDrift

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Posted 12 December 2008 - 00:47

What was the following Summer like? Which is what the topic suggests ;- )



Fairly mince I think Mondy.

#16 Gavin P

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Posted 12 December 2008 - 00:51

If anything its the reverse. Many cold winters seem to be followed by generally poor summer (and cool years generally) Certainly a lot of the cold winters in the 60's and 80's were followed by poor summers. Of course the 40's were a little differant, with generally cool winters and warm summers. I suspect in the end its all random and there are no summer-winter/winter-summer connections at all.
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#17 Weather-history

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Posted 12 December 2008 - 01:01

absolutely no link whatever just the same as one that a cold winter follows a hot summer


Don't entirely agree with that John. There is a statistical bias towards a winter of less than 2C CET being rarely followed by a warm to hot summer.

1947 was the exception to this rule.

The CET average of the summers following winters of a CET less than 2.0 is 14.9, I think

Edited by Mr_Data, 12 December 2008 - 01:17 .

Manchester Summer Index 2014: 234 (up to 25th August)

#18 CatchMyDrift

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Posted 12 December 2008 - 01:07

Don't entirely agree with that John. There is a statistical bias towards a winter of less than 2C CET being rarely followed by a warm to hot summer.

1947 was the exception to this rule.



With all due respect to those involved in this discussion isn't it a fairly easy hypothesis to test empirically? Temperature records exist for hundreds of years for a CET. Why can't someone assess the data, test the significance and come back with a scientifically sound answer?

Surely someone has already done this type of academic research and if not, why not? If this was an economics problem it would have been tested to death by now!!

#19 mike Meehan

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Posted 12 December 2008 - 01:15

No - and apart from some winters with the odd cold snaps, there have not really been any abnormally cold winters in the past 45 years, though we have had 2 or 3 abnormally hot summers. But as far as I recall the summer of 1963 wasn't anything really to write home about.

The one thing I would say is that sometimes it appears that if we have a lovely warm dry spring, we so very often appear to pay for it during the summer.
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#20 Mrs Trellis

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Posted 12 December 2008 - 07:26

I don't remember summer 1963 being all that hot or settled...Sometimes yes, sometimes no?

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