126 replies to this topic

[pyrotech]

So where are we almost a year later?
Another poor summer for most of the UK, the Southeast having done pretty good but the Northwest pretty poor.
The jet stream moved Southwards and caused a washout for many areas and a North - South split became the norm.
A dry September for most and again the South did best. Now Autumn is truly here as we enter head into October.
So whats the winter ahead going to be like from a climate change perspective and what has changed in the last 12 months?
Firstly global emmisions of CO2 have not been reduced so any change from that cause should be not to huge. What has changed is the prediction of the solar minimum ending and a return to active solar sun spot activity.
The experts got this one wrong and we are currently in a very deep solar min. The effects on the climate should now really start to be felt and so i include the reasons why this is signifigant to our climate. Why now and not when the minimum started? How it effects us, and likely effects.

Firstly to show the lag in time between the minimum and the resulting temperatures.
The Lag is around 2 years and the best explanation for why is its an accumalative effect much like the summer and winter in the UK.
The longest day in the Northern hemisphere is around 21st of June. This is not when temperatures peak that comes almost 5-6 weeks later.
Same with winter, shortest day is close to christmas yet our coldest temperatures come later in january or february.
Its the same with solar max and minimums, but the cycle and prossess is much bigger.

The effects of solar mimimum are huge and not fully understood however we do know that solar minimum allows more cosmic rays to reach the earth.
Forecasters and snow lovers look for this to try to predict a SSW Stratospheric Sudden Warming. This is a warming of the stratosphere around the north pole which sends the rotational winds from a normal anti clockwise rotation to a complexed and more random circulation ( even clockwise)
This sends the Jet Stream southwards and gives the UK and many latitudes a better chance of a winter storm.
A solar mimimum allows more cosmic rays from the solar system to enter the Earth's atmosphere and so causing the stratosphere to warm.
We are currently in a deep solar minimum and so cosmic rays are at a very high level, also this solar minimum has gone on for longer than expected and longer than for many cycles. There have ben false starts to cycle 24, perhaps this is cycle 24 and its level of solar activity will remain unusually low throughout its complete cycle but the truth is nobody is really sure.
So the way i see it all.
The solar minimum is still not showing any signs of abating, even if it did today the effects of this minimum would be felt for next two winters, if the minimum continues then the effects increase.
The jet throughout the last 2 years seems to have moved southwards, a likely effect from the solar minimum and high level cosmic rays. This should push more storms southwards and with them lower temperatures during the winter months. We will watch with interest the SSW this year.
Temperatures have risen over the last 20 years so we have a higher starting point, so a frozen Thames is not the kind of level to be expected, but a trend to more snow is likely and an increase in artic ice levels.
Longterm the effects depend on the length and depth of the solar mimimum, It is feasable that climate warming could be reveresd and a prolonged cooling take effect. Although i agree that polution and CO2 is damaging and we should make serious efforts to reduce it i would like to end this by saying that climate change or as i rather say climate shift has been around for billions of years, beyond human life. It is likely that the solar activity of the latter part of the last century has had a massive effect on our global temperatures and less caused by the other effects than many think. Cosmic rays effect Ozone levels too. Maybe this climate shift to warmer cycle was more natural than we thought and a series of prolonged solar minimums will now reverese the warming.
Just a little food for thought.

[Iceberg]

Still awaiting the cold weather though, currently only Jan this year has been below average CET wise and globally temperatures have not cooled at all. Over the last 2 years both CET and global temps have been on an upwards trend and not downwards.

I am not saying that what you've mentioned above won't happened, but as yet there is no evidence for it and it's not something I personally think is very likely.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Iceberg, on 30 September 2009 - 11:49 , said:

Still awaiting the cold weather though, currently only Jan this year has been below average CET wise and globally temperatures have not cooled at all. Over the last 2 years both CET and global temps have been on an upwards trend and not downwards.

I am not saying that what you've mentioned above won't happened, but as yet there is no evidence for it and it's not something I personally think is very likely.

Global temperatures yes, CET no. 2007 was close to being the warmest year on record for the CET, with a record-breaking first half. Close to average temperatures in the second half prevented the records (set in 2006!) from being broken. 2008 just sneaked under 10C CET and 2009 has a chance of doing the same. Nonetheless while I don't agree that CET has been trending upwards over the last couple of years, it has stayed mostly above the 71-00 average.

Global temperatures have definitely shown a rise over the last couple of years, due to the strong La Nina in late 2007/early 2008, and the El Nino that has subsequently followed. And indeed, there has been no overall cooling in the last decade despite some modes of natural variability, notably ENSO, tending less positive than they were in the 1990s.

[jethro]

Has anyone seen anything recently which quantifies Solar lag more accurately? I've seen so many different time scales quoted, it's difficult to judge when we should expect any impact from the prolonged minimum.

[Devonian]

jethro, on 30 September 2009 - 13:00 , said:

Has anyone seen anything recently which quantifies Solar lag more accurately? I've seen so many different time scales quoted, it's difficult to judge when we should expect any impact from the prolonged minimum.

Indeed.

I suspect if we did a poll (hint perhaps for anyone with more time...) we might find a lot of different opinions. And a lot of different opinion means that at any point someone can fit the weather to the sun's behaviour using some lag or other.

[jethro]

Devonian, on 30 September 2009 - 13:12 , said:

Indeed.

I suspect if we did a poll (hint perhaps for anyone with more time...) we might find a lot of different opinions. And a lot of different opinion means that at any point someone can fit the weather to the sun's behaviour using some lag or other.

True but I was thinking more along the lines of new papers/peer reviewed stuff rather than personal opinions.

There's an awful lot of focus upon the Solar cycle presently (sparked by the prolonged minimum), I wondered if it had prompted any new efforts to quantify future impacts and when they can be expected.

[WRCHowler]

Very interesting reading, would like to here more views on this.

[jethro]

Going back to the temperature posts from Iceberg and TWS.... According to NASA and GISS, year end figures for 2008 show it to have been the coolest year globally since 2000.

http://data.giss.nas...v/gistemp/2008/

[Iceberg]

Thundery wintry showers, on 30 September 2009 - 12:54 , said:

Global temperatures yes, CET no. 2007 was close to being the warmest year on record for the CET, with a record-breaking first half. Close to average temperatures in the second half prevented the records (set in 2006!) from being broken. 2008 just sneaked under 10C CET and 2009 has a chance of doing the same. Nonetheless while I don't agree that CET has been trending upwards over the last couple of years, it has stayed mostly above the 71-00 average.

Global temperatures have definitely shown a rise over the last couple of years, due to the strong La Nina in late 2007/early 2008, and the El Nino that has subsequently followed. And indeed, there has been no overall cooling in the last decade despite some modes of natural variability, notably ENSO, tending less positive than they were in the 1990s.

Yes Sorry TWS you were right, I've just very quickly plotted the CET anomalies for the last 2 years (24 months) the big drop in the middle around last autumn and winter. Taking the last 12 months the upward trend is evident however I wrongly assumed this went back a further 12 months.

forgot to post the chart

Attached Thumbnails

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[AtlanticFlamethrower]

Thanks pyrotech - sorry everyone seems to have ignored your post. That's unfair considering you have been right over the last year. I ignored them and just read what you said.

It's hard not to agree with your forecast for a colder winter than last year's, more marginal events becoming snowy ones. If the solar minimum is to continue to have an effect you might expect this and increased Arctic Ice totals.

[jethro]

No one has ignored Pyrotec, every post since then has been in reference to his post, whether it be questions about lag time for Solar effects or quantifiable differences to temperatures thus far in the prolonged minimum.

Perhaps if you hadn't (as you say) ignored those posts, you would have realised this AF.

[pyrotech]

AtlanticFlamethrower, on 30 September 2009 - 15:53 , said:

Thanks pyrotech - sorry everyone seems to have ignored your post. That's unfair considering you have been right over the last year. I ignored them and just read what you said.

It's hard not to agree with your forecast for a colder winter than last year's, more marginal events becoming snowy ones. If the solar minimum is to continue to have an effect you might expect this and increased Arctic Ice totals.

Thanks for the comments.
Its always nice when someone agrees with you but equally good to have the opinions of others which can open ideas and further discussion.
The problem with the climate debate is its all been done reactively instead of both proactive and reactively. This makes us try to fit pieces to the puzzle, and the pieces we find to make fit are normally the ones we are familiar with. By being proactive and searching for new ideas for why things change will lead to better understanding of all the diverse effects that accumulate together to make the big picture.
Sometimes when we find something that seems to fit and sounds feasable, we allow it to grow without questioning it, without returning to the problem and double checking our work against new data, complacency perhaps.

It seems some would like further proof and reliable data to look at, a very sensible approach as this again could be a piece of the puzzle fitted wrongly, perhaps even its the right pieces but in the wrong places.
Anyhow i intend to add a few links here in next 24 hours, to some data so that people can digest and interpret the data themselves. This will include the LAG factor. W can then constructively discuss the findings and reliability of the source and unreliability if the case.

[jethro]

I look forward to it Pyrotec. To be honest, I find it all rather puzzling when trying to decipher the impact of a prolonged minimum, there's so many conflicting pieces of data out there as to when impacts can/will be felt? Lag varies from a few months up to 20 years and every variable in between (depending upon who you read), the extent of impact seems to provide no clearer answers either.

Have you chosen one particular piece of research and based your thoughts upon this, if so, how did you reach that decision?

[pyrotech]

jethro, on 30 September 2009 - 17:19 , said:

I look forward to it Pyrotec. To be honest, I find it all rather puzzling when trying to decipher the impact of a prolonged minimum, there's so many conflicting pieces of data out there as to when impacts can/will be felt? Lag varies from a few months up to 20 years and every variable in between (depending upon who you read), the extent of impact seems to provide no clearer answers either.

Have you chosen one particular piece of research and based your thoughts upon this, if so, how did you reach that decision?

Its a truely massive area, and conflicts of information.
I do not use one source as i like to keep an open mind on everything so i can retrace my thoughts. Different sources maks a more balanced collection of thoughts. As i o
said earlier its easy when you see the light at the end of the tunnel to run towards it, thinking its your salvation, when in fact its a high speed train heading straight at you.
Any way some unbiased links for you
Firstly a NASA article on the Solar Wind - its this lack of solar wind speed that allows cosmic rays to enter our orbit.
http://science.nasa....p_solarwind.htm

Now about cosmic rays - another NASA article/
http://science.nasa...._cosmicrays.htm


Sea ice chart, not conclusive but we are heading towards the 79 -2000 minimum although long way to go, but when you look at it i ask youto think about this - Has there been a huge difference ( downwards) of the CO2 that we have put into the atmosphere in last 3 years where the effects could now cause a downward trend in temps and a reversal in sea ice extent. The answer is No.
Then look at the sun spot cycle and look at the historic events which show warming after a max and cooling after an effective minimum.

http://nsidc.org/dat..._timeseries.png


Finally the LAG and some data. These think its 3 years where i said 2 but not going to split pins over that.

http://wattsupwithth...-sunspots-gone/

Anyhow just take a look at it and be proactive, do not think CO2 think openly, add cO2 the one we all know about at the end, compare it and just think about the data.
Quite happy to get more data if required but lets see if the puzzle looks a bit more recognisable now.

Edited by pyrotech, 30 September 2009 - 18:09 .

[jethro]

The cosmic ray stuff is interesting but I don't think Svensmark has been too successful so far in validating the link with increased cloudiness. Perhaps more will come from CERN on this in the near future.

[stewfox]

jethro, on 30 September 2009 - 17:19 , said:

I look forward to it Pyrotec. To be honest, I find it all rather puzzling when trying to decipher the impact of a prolonged minimum, there's so many conflicting pieces of data out there as to when impacts can/will be felt? Lag varies from a few months up to 20 years and every variable in between (depending upon who you read), the extent of impact seems to provide no clearer answers either.

Have you chosen one particular piece of research and based your thoughts upon this, if so, how did you reach that decision?

Has there been any research done on the 1645 to 1715 the 'Maunder Minimum' .

http://science.nasa....tion.htm<br />
There appears to be a correlation here

http://en.wikipedia....Maunder_Minimum


Is there anywhwere that plots sunspot activity v temps last 300 yrs ? Sorry if I have missed it

[pyrotech]

stewfox, on 02 October 2009 - 10:12 , said:

Has there been any research done on the 1645 to 1715 the 'Maunder Minimum' .

http://science.nasa....tion.htm<br />
There appears to be a correlation here

http://en.wikipedia....Maunder_Minimum


Is there anywhwere that plots sunspot activity v temps last 300 yrs ? Sorry if I have missed it

The best data is from the Dalton minimum as its more recent.
I include a paragraph from the article and a link to the whole article, i hope it helps.

The Dalton Minimum was a period of low solar activity, named for the English meteorologist John Dalton, lasting from about 1790 to 1830.[1] Like the Maunder Minimum and Spörer Minimum, the Dalton Minimum coincided with a period of lower-than-average global temperatures. The Oberlach Station in Germany, for example, experienced a 2.0° C decline over 20 years.[2] The Year Without a Summer, in 1816, also occurred during the Dalton Minimum.

The precise cause of the lower-than-average temperatures during this period is not well understood.


http://en.wikipedia..../Dalton_Minimum

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Thundery wintry showers, on 30 September 2009 - 12:54 , said:

And indeed, there has been no overall cooling in the last decade despite some modes of natural variability, notably ENSO, tending less positive than they were in the 1990s.

But ENSO cycle [perturbation] only went La Nina domination in feb 07...give it time. This current El nino is a good indicator of its effects....somewhat surpressed.

BFTP

[Thundery wintry showers]

I've already answered that point on many previous occasions. The mode of ENSO was predominantly positive up until 1998, so the period of near-neutral ENSO between 1999 and 2007 should still, on average, have produced some cooling.

[Gray-Wolf]

I'm still awaiting proof positive that the PDO didn't swing into what would have been negative back in 98' Either things are well understood or we are running to catch up.

We are either to accept that the current (past 150yrs) warming is occurring above and beyond 'natural' signatures (which seems to be becoming the accepted norm) and so must look to it's augmenting of these 'natural' signatures or there is 'nothing to be seen here....move along'.

At some point, no matter how much you ascribe human augmentation to the current warming , human augmentation must impact natural signatures. You pick your level of impact and you then look for the evidence to back this up.

We are either fine tuning our understanding of the 'El-Nino' phenomena or it is splitting into different genera.

We are either seeing Ozone impacting Antarctica or it is all just background signals.

Black soot in the Himalaya's will impact over a billion people or we've seen it all before.

Arctic ice is merely reacting to solar output or we are in deep do-do's

Ho Hum.