275 replies to this topic

[Pingo]

Paul, on 29 November 2009 - 20:24 , said:

Regardless of the ins and outs of this discussion, I'm not sure that analogy fits as the roll of a roulette wheel is purely based on chance whereas the climate isn't.

So the climate is totally predictable?

Interesting insight.

[Captain_Bobski]

Pingo, on 29 November 2009 - 20:34 , said:

So the climate is totally predictable?

Interesting insight.

That is not what Paul said at all. Climate is clearly not totally predictable, but nor is it anything like as unpredictable as a spin of a roulette wheel.

CB

[Pingo]

Captain_Bobski, on 29 November 2009 - 20:41 , said:

That is not what Paul said at all. Climate is clearly not totally predictable, but nor is it anything like as unpredictable as a spin of a roulette wheel.

CB

I'd therefore like to see evidence from the meteorological or climatological authorities that they can do better than the toss of a coin. So far the evidence is nil. In fact, it's worse than that.

[oldsnowywizard]

Iceberg, on 23 November 2009 - 06:41 , said:

A very well written and balanced piece on the latest findings concerning Antarctic ice melt

http://news.bbc.co.u...ech/8371773.stm

thats really interesting... goes to show that not enough is known to draw any conlusions as to the causes of ice loss down there..

[Pingo]

oldsnowywizard, on 29 November 2009 - 21:13 , said:

thats really interesting... goes to show that not enough is known to draw any conlusions as to the causes of ice loss down there..

You'd better hide that decline.

[Gray-Wolf]

EDIT: Reason for edit...ooopsie!

Edited by Gray-Wolf, 07 January 2010 - 20:22 .

[paul tall]

Gray-Wolf, on 10 November 2009 - 09:43 , said:

ScienceDaily (Nov. 9, 2009) — The seriousness of current global warming is underlined by a reconstruction of climate at Maxwell Bay in the South Shetland Islands of the Antarctic Peninsula over approximately the last 14,000 years, which appears to show that the current warming and widespread loss of glacial ice are unprecedented.

How can the widespread loss of glacial ice be unprecedented if the world has had periods of no ice at all? Or are they talking about an unprecedented rate of ice reduction?

[Gray-Wolf]

You must try and bring things into context Paul. If we look at the periods the world was ice free they are markedly different worlds than today.

If those times were after a period with ice then we would loose glaciers/ice sheets but only on the way to a world of high temps/sea levels.

[paul tall]

But the fact is if the world has been ice free, then.....so what? What on earth are we all chirping on about if the earth can do that cyclically without our help! If we are heading to another such period isn't it just....tough? And if we are, and we think we can prevent it, aren't we just....mistaken? And wouldn't all this now be....irrelevant? "Cause" hardly matters, the Earth has shown it can come out of an Ice Age before without us, why would it not do it again?

[sunny starry skies]

paul tall, on 10 January 2010 - 14:23 , said:

But the fact is if the world has been ice free, then.....so what? What on earth are we all chirping on about if the earth can do that cyclically without our help! If we are heading to another such period isn't it just....tough? And if we are, and we think we can prevent it, aren't we just....mistaken? And wouldn't all this now be....irrelevant? "Cause" hardly matters, the Earth has shown it can come out of an Ice Age before without us, why would it not do it again?

But the point is not whether the Earth will keep going round the Sun (which it will) but whether climate change (caused by us, therefore and unnecessary event) will cause great damage to us and the environment, for example through large sea level rises wiping out many of the inhabited areas of the world. Whether or not such damaging consequences occur in our lifetimes is not important, but it is important that we have caused it, and we should try and minimise our further contribution to this change.

Pingo - 0 out of 10 I'm afraid. Actually, we can do quite well with taking the forcings of climate that were known throughout the 20th century, then predicting the future climate on the back of it. Absolutely nothing to do with the Met Office's seasonal weather forecast, or any other kind of weather forecast. And you can do this kind of climate modelling without the aid of a supercomputer too!
sss

[Gray-Wolf]

http://www.scienceda...00116103350.htm

I suppose it will always need more than common sense and the ability to understand catastrophic failure in the physical world to show that Antarctica will be the catalyst in abrupt global change but the above shows me we are moving towards such an understanding (in science) of what ,to me, is common sense.

When we first started this topic the East Antarctic Ice Sheet could not ever be seen to be involved in our current climate shift and the first rumblings about the West Antarctic Ice Sheet were being heard.

None of this needs temps in excess of what we see across Antarctica today. If it did we would not have had the first stage of collapse already occuring.

[stewfox]

Gray-Wolf, on 17 January 2010 - 13:36 , said:

None of this needs temps in excess of what we see across Antarctica today. If it did we would not have had the first stage of collapse already occuring.

To see the ski industry taking off in Australia in the hight of their summer does suggest the worlds gone mad.

http://news.bbc.co.u...000/8465238.stm

[Gray-Wolf]

stewfox, on 20 January 2010 - 21:53 , said:

To see the ski industry taking off in Australia in the hight of their summer does suggest the worlds gone mad.

http://news.bbc.co.u...000/8465238.stm

Gone mad indeed!

As we found with our recent cold when cold is displaced towards the equator warm floods back into the higher latitudes. This time of year there is little or no sea ice fronting the remaining shelf areas so any of that modified 40+ air would not be a welcome visitor there!

[Gray-Wolf]

ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/pub/DATASETS/ICESHELVES/modis_iceshelf_archive/mertz/images/mertz_2010073_2345_modis_ch02.png

Looks like the nudge the Metz glacier tongue got was enough to push it out into deeper waters and the Antarctic circumpolar current in time for the winter storms.

Looks like the Berg responsible is also free now to go on with it's travels.

[Gray-Wolf]

http://www.scientifi...rill-ice-sheets

Seems like the Antarctic is far more dynamic than we were lead to believe. up to 74 advance/retreat phases have been observed on the East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS) over the past 6 million years.......under natural drivers.

When I started the first of these threads I was continually being re-assured that EAIS was 'safe', I said not. It appears I may have been correct in my observations/understandings.

If 'natural climate variation' can drive such then what of the 'instant heat up' once the warming in the upper trop. makes it to ground level and the Ozone hole is healed enough to slacken off the Circumpolar current enough for the warmth of the oceans to reach the coast???

I would imagine in the past things took time to start to occur as the natural hysteresis came into play but ,as with any system thus pegged, give it a big enough shove and resistance to change is overcome.

To much ice there for it not to drive horrible change on the planet if it's starts to let go.

[cooling climate]

Extreme cold has set in early over Antarctica with the south pole recording temperatures of -70c -94f
and Vostock -78c -108.4f.
Forcasts say the lower stratosphere is much colder than normal and that a abnormally large Ozone
hole similar to 2000 will develop over the Antarctic during their winter.