225 replies to this topic

[Jackone]

8th Feb

Tonight After a few showers in the south, it will be a mainly clear night with some fog in places, very frosty and Icy, temps 0-3c.

Tomorrow A Quieter Day with any fog lifting slowly during the day, temps 3-5c But maybe closer to freezing over the snowfields.

Saturday - rain and snow pushing North with snow likely from Mid Wales northwards, Temps 3-6c.

[shuggee]

Just watched the 20:57 News24 forecast - and a marked reduction in forecast temps compared to earlier at 18:27. What were 1ºCs are now -2ºCs overnight (even a 0ºC in Plymouth!) - and mainly 4ºC and 5ºC max tomorrow.

[davehsug]

What's really beginning to annoy me is the use of presenters rather than forecasters for the day's major forecasts. Bless her, but Carol Kirkwood is not a forecaster & unable to bring the small insights & nuances into a forecast that a proper forecaster might.
I reaslise that the breakfast forecast (except Friday for some reason), is the preserve of the female presenter, but this is now creeping in to the day's major forecasts. It is a coincidence that they are women & this not an anti-female thing, there have been several excellent female forecasters over the years.
I'm sick of dumbing down! We've already lost the most important forecast of the day to a 30 second snippet in front of poor graphics on a cobbled together screen (all so that the BBC can show 3 minutes of endless trailers for itself!), now we are having the forecasters removed too!
Rant over
Dave

[Jackone]

Derek was quite candid about the failure of the models last night, and admitted that the front pushed about 50-100 miles further north than expected and this caused today's very heavy snow over much of South Wales.

The latest 1035 forecast has gone for further snow tonghit for south wales after some initial rain before the inevitable thaw starts in earnest in the south later tomoorrow and in the north on Friady.

[willinkent]

On BBC SE Today they have a special article on 1947 winter with never seen footage of whitstable sea freezing, ie local residents footage and it will be on again this evenings local news......

[stumathers]

Does anybody else find it so annoying when watchin the bbc weather that they cut from the early morning weather map to showing the weather in london, belfast, glasgow and cardiff in a list. How am I supposed to know the weather in Sheffield or anywhere else for that matter by seeing what its like in those 4 cities. Its not detailed enough as they are only being precise for the next 12 hours.

[mettalfabrik]

link to a bbc news weather forecast story

http://news.bbc.co.u...ech/6917519.stm

[johnholmes]

just a £100 million pounds, peanuts I suppose but I, even as an ex met-man, am not convinced that it will be as accurate as Dr Golding promises.

[carinthian]

johnholmes, on 26 Jul 2007, 07:03 PM, said:

just a £100 million pounds, peanuts I suppose but I, even as an ex met-man, am not convinced that it will be as accurate as Dr Golding promises.

Jobs now being advertised to work on the new super computer at Exeter (Met Office web site) Come on you young guys go for it. I don't think JH and I will get an interview somehow . Time to change another roll on the teleprinter!
C

[johnholmes]

good heavens are you that old?

[kold weather]

It sounds to me like they are going to try and run some sort of ensemble:

Quote

The supercomputer will allow meteorologists to run computer models with a multitude of slight variations.

I suspect to also increase the forecasts accuracy to such a small area they are going to have to increase the resolution of the model as well so thats another good thing, it should hopefully lead to more accurate forecasts.

My only thing that nags in my mind is you could have a million ensemble members pointing to the same thing but if the startig data isn't completely accurate, esp in convective set-ups, then every single one of those ensembles could be wrong. The models are only as good as the data inputed into them and while decent I'm not sure if its good enoughto be able to forecast convection quite like is forecasted.

Still its a good thing and a good step foward!

[carinthian]

[quote name='kold weather' date='26 Jul 2007, 08:50 PM' post='1032400']
It sounds to me like they are going to try and run some sort of ensemble:
I suspect to also increase the forecasts accuracy to such a small area they are going to have to increase the resolution of the model as well so thats another good thing, it should hopefully lead to more accurate forecasts.

My only thing that nags in my mind is you could have a million ensemble members pointing to the same thing but if the startig data isn't completely accurate, esp in convective set-ups, then every single one of those ensembles could be wrong. The models are only as good as the data inputed into them and while decent I'm not sure if its good enoughto be able to forecast convection quite like is forecasted.

Still its a good thing and a good step foward!
[/quote
The accuracy of the super computer forecasts depends upon a constant, reliable and copious material feed and the quality of the formulae projecting it. Improvements in models still rely on the accurracy of real data. 25 years on since the installation at Bracknell of the first high speed Cyber computers, good meteorologists still need considerable human skill to prepare forecasts from these prognostic charts.
C

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

Just thought i'd add this in, as its not really model discussion (although partly related).
Fridays BBC forecast (am) was for a sunny day today, and dry. Its cloudy and we've just had a spot of rain.
I do admit though, it cleared up for a short time about 8am.
So, are the BBC to blame? Were they inaccurate?

Simple answer is no. All it does is show that even 48 hours away, things can change. Like we do on the model discussion, they do the same using the charts, historical data and human input (which lets be fair, the BBC are METO trained, so I would say the later input is of a high degree). Maybe more, i'm obviously not from the METO.
The point being, and I cant remember who mentioned it (I think it was our very own Mr John Holmes), things can diverge even at T+0.

[keithtod43]

Just seen the latest weather forcaste for friday night saturday that a cold front is moving down the uk(heaviest snow in the west of uk).The last time this happened we in swales had 10cm of snow in 3hours.

[Jackone]

We do well out of the type of scenario on Friday, pity it's not lasting a little longer.

[shuggee]

BBC Reporting Scotland and Heather has shown the first graphic I've seen for Friday. Basically, 1ºC max temp in cities, but unless you live in the western or northernmost quarters of Scotland it's nothing but bright and sunny.

[Ross B]

shuggee, on 29 Jan 2008, 06:58 PM, said:

BBC Reporting Scotland and Heather has shown the first graphic I've seen for Friday. Basically, 1ºC max temp in cities, but unless you live in the western or northernmost quarters of Scotland it's nothing but bright and sunny.

Snow for here then? (i missed it) Showing a lot of snow on the graphics is rare for Heather, so that shouldn't get anyone downhearted

[CatchMyDrift]

shuggee, on 29 Jan 2008, 06:58 PM, said:

BBC Reporting Scotland and Heather has shown the first graphic I've seen for Friday. Basically, 1ºC max temp in cities, but unless you live in the western or northernmost quarters of Scotland it's nothing but bright and sunny.

So there's hope for me and Ross then?

[Turnedoutniceagain]

There was still an understandable bot of "fence-sitting" on the Beebs 10:30 Wx programme. Good to see the "Early Warnings" being flashed up though !!

[Stuart]

bright and sunny for me

Edited by Stuart H, 30 January 2008 - 08:56 .