Ken Ring's Winter Forecast

[Zerouali lives]

Has anyone seen Ken Ring's Winter forecast yet.? I've had a look at his website which only gives brief details (generally mild with snow between 31st Dec and 9th Jan). But he normally produces a more detailed forecast which seemed to be fairly accuate last year.

[The PIT]

He did say earlier on that this winter would be very mild.

[Stratos Ferric]

Has anyone seen Ken Ring's Winter forecast yet.? I've had a look at his website which only gives brief details (generally mild with snow between 31st Dec and 9th Jan). But he normally produces a more detailed forecast which seemed to be fairly accuate last year.

I'm fairly sure it was far more accurate in his own mind than it was by any other assessment.

[Zerouali lives]

I'm fairly sure it was far more accurate in his own mind than it was by any other assessment.

Perhaps so, but it was by far the most accurate compared to several other Winter Forecasts I read last year. Apart from a snowy second half of January (which didn't materialize) he was very accurate.

[drgl]

can someone post up his forcast from last winter as i don't remember it being in away accurate.

[Weather-history]

Ken Ring.... hmmm........ when I see comments like this, "scientifically ignorant" springs to mind

He says "when there is no moon in the sky, the air goes out, the cold of space comes down and condenses".

"When there is a full moon, the clouds are pushed away, and it's warmer", Mr Ring adds.

http://www.abc.net.au/westernplains/stories/s1318458.htm

[drgl]

Ken Ring.... hmmm........ when I see comments like this, "scientifically ignorant" springs to mind

He says "when there is no moon in the sky, the air goes out, the cold of space comes down and condenses".

"When there is a full moon, the clouds are pushed away, and it's warmer", Mr Ring adds.

http://www.abc.net.au/westernplains/stories/s1318458.htm

lol-what a load of rubbiDoh a dumb swear filter got the better of me How many frosty moon lit nights has he seen then? Becuase i've seen plenty........

No clouds=warmer Last time i checked it was much colder with no clouds-doh!

[TEITS]

I'm fairly sure it was far more accurate in his own mind than it was by any other assessment.

I don't remember his forecast being very accurate .

Personally I feel ken would be better off popping to Homebase than looking at the moon for his forecasts. Speaking of which I may use B&Q this year for my forecasts and use some expensive wallpaper so when my forecast goes pearshaped I can hang it on the wall :lol:

[paul tall]

Ken Rings forecast last year was nothing like.

He said predominantly mild (backing the form horse no doubt) and the winter wasn't mild.

The snowy end to January did not materialise, and although people kept on tenuously linking "near enough" weather events to his forecast as if to offer some proof, it was no more accurate than a Guesscast.

He got the Christmas-New Year cold snap right, but again, anybody that studies the British Weather (as he must do, to be bothered about making a forecast) would surely cotton on that forecasting, or guessing, a cold snap at that time would be a reasonably smart bet if you like guessing games.

I could do a total guesscast now, with absolutely no forethought whatsoever, a totally random selection of statements............... and I would say mild (back the form horse) with a cold snap in the Christmas hols (decent bet), wetter than last winter (simply guessed because last winter was dry), with a cooler Easterly regime during the latter parts of February, possibly bringing some significant snow (again, a decent bet). There you have it, my complete guesscast, and I bet its at least 50% accurate over the 3 months, and as accurate as Mr Rings forecast.

I won't say Mr Ring is a fraud, because he probably believes in his systems, however I take no notice of his wacky theories.

Mooncast my I have a problem.

[drgl]

Ken Rings forecast last year was nothing like.

He said predominantly mild (backing the form horse no doubt) and the winter wasn't mild.

The snowy end to January did not materialise, and although people kept on tenuously linking "near enough" weather events to his forecast as if to offer some proof, it was no more accurate than a Guesscast.

He got the Christmas-New Year cold snap right, but again, anybody that studies the British Weather (as he must do, to be bothered about making a forecast) would surely cotton on that forecasting, or guessing, a cold snap at that time would be a reasonably smart bet if you like guessing games.

I could do a total guesscast now, with absolutely no forethought whatsoever, a totally random selection of statements............... and I would say mild (back the form horse) with a cold snap in the Christmas hols (decent bet), wetter than last winter (simply guessed because last winter was dry), with a cooler Easterly regime during the latter parts of February, possibly bringing some significant snow (again, a decent bet). There you have it, my complete guesscast, and I bet its at least 50% accurate over the 3 months, and as accurate as Mr Rings forecast.

I won't say Mr Ring is a fraud, because he probably believes in his systems, however I take no notice of his wacky theories.

Mooncast my I have a problem.

lol-stick you "forcast" in the thread i've started Cheers

[PersianPaladin]

Ken Rings forecast last year was nothing like.

He said predominantly mild (backing the form horse no doubt) and the winter wasn't mild.

The snowy end to January did not materialise, and although people kept on tenuously linking "near enough" weather events to his forecast as if to offer some proof, it was no more accurate than a Guesscast.

He got the Christmas-New Year cold snap right, but again, anybody that studies the British Weather (as he must do, to be bothered about making a forecast) would surely cotton on that forecasting, or guessing, a cold snap at that time would be a reasonably smart bet if you like guessing games.

I could do a total guesscast now, with absolutely no forethought whatsoever, a totally random selection of statements............... and I would say mild (back the form horse) with a cold snap in the Christmas hols (decent bet), wetter than last winter (simply guessed because last winter was dry), with a cooler Easterly regime during the latter parts of February, possibly bringing some significant snow (again, a decent bet). There you have it, my complete guesscast, and I bet its at least 50% accurate over the 3 months, and as accurate as Mr Rings forecast.

I won't say Mr Ring is a fraud, because he probably believes in his systems, however I take no notice of his wacky theories.

Mooncast my I have a problem.

Hahhaha.

Telling it like it is - as usual.

:lol:

[Ken Ring]

Hahhaha.

Telling it like it is - as usual.

My forecast has been out for a couple of weeks and avaliable on http://www.predictweather.com/articles.asp?ID=39

It lists drier periods till the end of 2007 and is general for the whole country. The emphasis is on trends, which is the nature of longrange forecasting. The common mistake is to evaluate such work using terms of reference devised for short term. The usefulness lies not in the detail but in the potential for longer term planning. Moon-weather deniers will, however, find probably fault regardless. That prediction alone carries 100% confidence!

It may interest some readers here that I have a new book out published by Random House (NZ) called 'The Lunar Code', which explains and proves the lunar cycles, and enables anyone to perform longrange forecasting for any year or season ahead. I basically wrote it for professional forecasters and farmers. Without an awareness of what I am claiming, any discussion of the method on this forum is premature and uninformed. The ISBN is 1-86941-852-2

Ken Ring

www.predictweather.com

[Gavin P]

My forecast has been out for a couple of weeks and avaliable on http://www.predictweather.com/articles.asp?ID=39

It lists drier periods till the end of 2007 and is general for the whole country. The emphasis is on trends, which is the nature of longrange forecasting. The common mistake is to evaluate such work using terms of reference devised for short term. The usefulness lies not in the detail but in the potential for longer term planning. Moon-weather deniers will, however, find probably fault regardless. That prediction alone carries 100% confidence!

It may interest some readers here that I have a new book out published by Random House (NZ) called 'The Lunar Code', which explains and proves the lunar cycles, and enables anyone to perform longrange forecasting for any year or season ahead. I basically wrote it for professional forecasters and farmers. Without an awareness of what I am claiming, any discussion of the method on this forum is premature and uninformed. The ISBN is 1-86941-852-2

Ken Ring

www.predictweather.com

Hi.

Interesting forecast. I notice in an earlier forecast on your website, you say that the UK will now be expecting a period of "Less Cold" winters for the next 5 years. Can I ask, "Less Cold" than what? "Less Cold" than the last 5 years? Because anyone will tell you that the winters here, over the last 5 years, have been pretty mild anyway. By saying the coming winter will be "Less Cold" it somehow implies that at some point in the last 5 years we've had a series of cold winters, which couldn't be further from the truth. You have to go back to 90/91 to find anything that could be described as really cold during winter, and possibly back to the mid 1980's for anything that could be described as severe. The UK has been an absolutely barren world for severe winter weather for many, many, many years now.

Edited December 8, 2006 by Gavin P

[John Cox]

Hi Ken,

Nice to see you posting again.

Hope you are keeping well.

I know your views have been very unpopular here on nw in the past but perhaps you will find more open and tolerent minds with lots of new members

[pottyprof]

Young Ken.. Welcome back..

I hope that this is more than a one-off post, as we have missed your input..

I look forward to some interesting debates if that is the case..

[thunderstrike]

but unlikely to be any more than light snow if at all, due to the distance of the Moon from Earth

By Feb 18/19 New moons begin edging closer to Earth

Don't we only have one moon?

Well wrote out but its very cryptic and doesn't make a great deal of sense

[VillagePlank]

Don't we only have one moon?

No. We have two moons; our first natural satellite is called 'The Moon' and the second one is called 'Cruithne'

[acbrixton]

A little misleading as it is merely an asteroid that is not gravitationally "bound" to the earth although it does orbit earth in an ellipse at a considerably greater distance than the moon.

I thought that KR's forecasts were in some way based upon gravitational forces: if so then Cruithne would be irrelevant?

Regards

ACB

[acbrixton]

My forecast has been out for a couple of weeks and avaliable on http://www.predictweather.com/articles.asp?ID=39

It lists drier periods till the end of 2007 and is general for the whole country. The emphasis is on trends, which is the nature of longrange forecasting. The common mistake is to evaluate such work using terms of reference devised for short term. The usefulness lies not in the detail but in the potential for longer term planning.

Ken Ring

www.predictweather.com

Ken you do however go into surprisingly specific detail as to predicted snowfall in southern areas in the mornings between 25th and 28th February 2007...

"The last week of Feb brings a chance of morning snowfalls to some southern areas after 24th."

That is not a trend but a detailed forecast for a 4 day period for a relatively small geographical area.

Further your forecast of snowfall in late June:

"Mid June brings last rogue snows of the season for elevated and northern districts, and an expected upward change to summer temperatures will be felt about June 21st..

Drier periods may be Jan 9-16, Feb 11-16, 18-21, Apr 6-13, May 13-22, May 26-June 14, June 22-July..."

This forecasts snowfall between 15th and 20th June. Again rather specific.

please would you advise as to what you mean by "elevated and northern districts": are you really forecasting/predicting snow over the highest ground away from the north in the third week of June (e.g. Dartmoor, Snowdonia, Peak District, Pennines and Lake District?) or do you mean high ground in the north (i.e. the Scottish Highlands). The latter is just possible the former interpretation rather strains credulity: I am not aware that snow has fallen in England and Wales at any elevation that late in Junein the last 150 years or more...(in 1975 several inches of snow were recorded at Buxton at the very beginning of June).

Regards

ACB

[The PIT]

Thanks Ken now lets see what happens.

[Ken Ring]

I will try to answer some recent questions.

"I know your views have been very unpopular here on nw in the past but perhaps you will find more open and tolerent minds with lots of new members"

Sounds good, and if my messages will not be deleted we may end up with useful discussions.

------------------------------------------

"Don't we only have one moon?

Yes, but we talk about new moons in the way of one of the ancient Arabic cultures, which dictated that each new moon was a different moon arriving, and that when one died the souls went to the place where all the old moons were. Rather quaint and I suppose quite logical.

---------------------------------------

"Ken you do however go into surprisingly specific detail as to predicted snowfall in southern areas in the mornings between 25th and 28th February 2007...

That is not a trend but a detailed forecast for a 4 day period for a relatively small geographical area".

It is still a trend, but even a trend must have a focus. This is what I mean by confusing assessment precedures for longrange with those used for short term. I could say when I am 90 I will probably go to Fiji but that doesn't mean the day I am 90 or that I won't end up on a neighboring island.

--------------------------------------

"Please would you advise as to what you mean by "elevated and northern districts": are you really forecasting/predicting snow over the highest ground away from the north in the third week of June (e.g. Dartmoor, Snowdonia, Peak District, Pennines and Lake District?) or do you mean high ground in the north (i.e. the Scottish Highlands).

Both of those could be included, as well as north-facing ranges further to the south.

------------------------------------------

"I am not aware that snow has fallen in England and Wales at any elevation that late in Junein the last 150 years or more...(in 1975 several inches of snow were recorded at Buxton at the very beginning of June)".

I agree it is unusual. That is the nature of weather, to go in cycles. As such, there are peaks and quiet periods. We should stop being surprised about any extreme events, because they eventually give averages. The mistake is to make the norm the expectancy. It is only a mean expectancy. We should also expect the extreme to be part of the norm. This error of human thinking has fed and milked the climate change hysteria. We have always had extreme weather, look at any page in the bible.

Regards

Ken Ring

[Ken Ring]

Ken Ring.... hmmm........ when I see comments like this, "scientifically ignorant" springs to mind

He says "when there is no moon in the sky, the air goes out, the cold of space comes down and condenses".

"When there is a full moon, the clouds are pushed away, and it's warmer", Mr Ring adds.

http://www.abc.net.au/westernplains/stories/s1318458.htm

Quoting me out of context is a misquote and if you did it in an attempt to make me look silly, you only succeeded in your own scientific ignorance. In the first sentence quoted I was referring only to new moon night conditions with rain about. In the second quote; full moon night conditions around midnight.

Ken Ring

www.predictweather.com

[Weather-history]

Quoting me out of context is a misquote and if you did it in an attempt to make me look silly, you only succeeded in your own scientific ignorance. In the first sentence quoted I was referring only to new moon night conditions with rain about. In the second quote; full moon night conditions around midnight.

Ken Ring

www.predictweather.com

Ken, quoting someone out of context is hardly scientifically ignorant. What worries me is that you don't deny this

"He says "when there is no moon in the sky, the air goes out, the cold of space comes down and condenses".

"When there is a full moon, the clouds are pushed away, and it's warmer", Mr Ring adds.

Do you actually believe that this happens, "the cold of space come down and condenses"? Is that what you actually said?

[Ken Ring]

Ken, quoting someone out of context is hardly scientifically ignorant. Do you actually believe that this happens, "the cold of space come down and condenses"? Is that what you actually said?

The cold of space can't condense, obviously, so it's a misquote. The colder air is heavier though, and falls through thinner upper air which is why mountaintops have snow and why open-top freezer doors can be left open. Now, add this fact to the changing airtide and you will appreciate that when the moon is out of the sky the airtide goes "out". If the moon is gone at night(new moon) then the colder air will come closer to ground level than at a time when the moon is in the sky all night(full moon). You will still get frosts on a full moon but it is unlikely to snow during a winter full moon night.

Ken Ring

[Ken Ring]

Hi. :unsure:

I notice in an earlier forecast on your website, you say that the UK will now be expecting a period of "Less Cold" winters for the next 5 years. Can I ask, "Less Cold" than what?

Less cold refers to the northern hemisphere as a trend, and what expectancy might be regarded as average. A colder winter would imply snow records getting broken, or more blizzards than would be expected. Using less cold is just an expression of perception based on expectancy. Last Xmas Moscow reached -32C. If that city got down to -10C this year I'd say less cold for them, and I would have my doubts that they would reach anywhere near -32C this coming season because northern declinations will not be as high. The UK has a different weather pattern, of course, because of the warming of the Gulf Stream, but trends will be the same. Cycles like maximum declination, perigees and corresponding concurrences of lunar equinoxes will still rule what happens in both countries according to their latitudes and elevations.

Ken Ring

www.predictweather.com

author of The Lunar Code(Random House Publishers)