426 replies to this topic

[shuggee]

Interesting timing for the next METO update - Monday lunchtime. Could be a crucial one to watch...

[Dave J]

The reason for the downgrade in temps on Sunday/Monday is not because of colder air advecting across the U.K. but that fog is expected to develop tonight and may be slow to clear during the day limiting temperatures where it persists all or much of the day.

[shuggee]

Hmmm... Look at this:

Quote

Valid for Sat 28 Jan 2006 to Mon 6th Feb 2006

High pressure will ensure a quiet start to the period with some sunshine by day, but overnight fog may be reluctant to clear, lingering throughout the day in places. Temperatures are expected to be below average with sharp overnight frost, and it will remain very cold by day where fog lingers. During the middle part of the period, a trend to more unsettled conditions is expected with rain gradually extending southeastwards to all areas, accompanied by a temporary rise in temperature. Later, low pressure is expected to move southeastwards across the UK followed by much colder northerly winds. It is expected to turn more wintry with the risk of some significant snowfall for a time.

From http://www.meto.gov....look/index.html

[snowdrifter]

Mmmm - 6th February... he smiles nostalgically...

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

shuggee, on 23 Jan 2006, 01:47 PM, said:

Hmmm... Look at this:
From http://www.meto.gov....look/index.html

Has that forecaster who wrote that looked at todays GFS 06z run and believed it as accurate??? I must admit though I like the LP diving south bit with significant snow...I went for big snow event between 30/1and 2/2 in my LRF so heres keeping eyes peeled. Cold/calm conditons to remain for next week with more severe cold weather digging in after snow event into next week, this should lead us through a very cold Feb.

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST, 23 January 2006 - 15:19 .

[The PIT]

BLAST FROM THE PAST, on 23 Jan 2006, 03:17 PM, said:

Has that forecaster who wrote that looked at todays GFS 06z run and believed it as accurate??? I must admit though I like the LP diving south bit with significant snow...I went for big snow event between 30/1and 2/2 in my LRF so heres keeping eyes peeled. Cold/calm conditons to remain for next week with more severe cold weather digging in after snow event into next week, this should lead us through a very cold Feb.

BFTP

I think you'll be lucky to get your big Snow event with that damn High preasure hovering around.

[shuggee]

I'm wondering where today's update is... Usually it's published on the website around 13:00. Ho hum...

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

The latest update from the METO:

Quote

Valid for Wed 1 Feb 2006 to Fri 10 Feb 2006
At the start of this spell, high pressure will be centred near southern England before slipping away into the continent. This will allow more unsettled weather and less cold air to gradually become established, especially in the west and north. Most areas will be rather cold with a good deal of cloud and patchy light rain moving eastwards. After the weekend, further bands of rain are set to move eastwards, turning heavy at times, especially in western and northern areas. Temperatures should return to mostly near normal, particularly in the west and north.

http://www.meto.gov....look/index.html

[devon lad]

SnowmanReturns, on 29 Jan 2006, 10:05 AM, said:

The latest update from the METO:



http://www.meto.gov....look/index.html

Incidently ..... don't buy the further outlook from the METO.

It's not particularly good unless the bleeding obvious is about to occur. After a week .... it's fairly meaningless.

dl

[shuggee]

Today's update:

Quote

Valid for Sat 4 Feb 2006 to Mon 13 Feb 2006

Most areas will start dry with patchy fog and it will be cold in places with some overnight frost. Within a few days, more unsettled weather with rain or showers is expected to move southwards. At this stage, temperature levels will be generally near normal, but then a change to colder weather is expected to develop from the north. Rain, sleet or snow showers are possible in places. Overall, the emphasis is still on mainly dry weather.

From http://www.meto.gov....look/index.html

[ks01]

Latest Met Office update...


Valid for Wed 08 Feb 2006 to Friday 17 Feb 2006

A north to northwesterly flow will affect all parts at the start of the period. This is likely to bring some showers, these more especially in the east where they may be wintry, but also affecting other coastal areas. Elsewhere generally dry, with all parts becoming dry for a time around the middle of the period. During the latter part of the period, turning generally more unsettled from the northwest, with most places seeing some spells of rain or showers, these being most likely in the north and west, with more in the way of drier and brighter conditions in the south and east. Temperatures mostly near normal in the west at first, but rather cold in the east. Temperatures generally rather below normal during the second half of the period.

[shuggee]

Thanks for spotting that ks01 and welcome to N-W

Reading between the lines that forecast says basically anythin is going to happen - but eyes should now be looking NW instead of east (If that ever were the case )...

[Stoxs]

ererer how can a north westerly flow bring showers to easter coasts
is there a typo or am i thicko

[i luv snow]

well its not impossible but you may be a thicko too only kidding mate, any sort of northerly can bring showers to the east, even a new altho these do usually favour western areas. However im sure there can be circumstances which eman the east would see some wintry showers too

[SNOW-MAN2006]

a promising forecast today but it says that it will have below average temperatures for the end of the period but with rain!?!

[Thundery wintry showers]

STOXS, on 3 Feb 2006, 04:46 PM, said:

ererer how can a north westerly flow bring showers to easter coasts
is there a typo or am i thicko

Usually a north-westerly will cause showers to clip the coastal areas around Aberdeen and Norfolk, but generally if showers are coastal a north-westerly won't bring much shower activity to the east. What sometimes happens, though, particularly as we head into Feb and the sun gets stronger, is that you get clusters of showers forming in central and northern Scotland that then track SE down the eastern side of Britain.

As for whether the upcoming northerly will bring snow or rain, I think the first two days of the northerly will be very borderline, and only locally conducive to settling snow at low levels even overnight. However, if it lasts for more than two days we should start pulling in some colder air.

[ks01]

Met Office update

Valid for Sat 11 February 2006 to Mon 20 February 2006

Very unsettled with all parts seeing spells of rain, some of which may be heavy at times, with a risk of snow, especially over higher ground in the north. Between the bands of rain there will be some brighter interludes, although still with showers, these mostly in the west. Generally windy with gales at times, with a risk of severe gales in places. Rather cold at first, but temperatures recovering to nearer normal for a time, although feeling cold in the wind and rain. Perhaps becoming milder towards the end of the period.

From http://www.meto.gov....look/index.html

Edited by shuggee, 06 February 2006 - 13:07 .

[Stuart]

Valid for Valid for Sat 18 Feb 2006 to Mon 27 Feb 2006

An unsettled westerly airflow is expected to dominate throughout the period, a succession of Atlantic lows and troughs moving over or to the north of the British Isles. These will bring frequent periods of rain or showers, some heavy and prolonged, often accompanied by strong winds or gales. However, there are likely to be some quieter interludes with transient ridges of high pressure, especially across the south. Daytime temperature levels are expected to fluctuate between normal to mild, although it will feel colder in the wet and windy spells. By night, frosts are unlikely to be frequent but there remains a risk in the quieter spells.

Updated every Monday and Friday afternoon

From http://www.metoffice.co.uk/

Edited by Stuart Harvey, 13 February 2006 - 12:34 .

[shuggee]

Oh dear! Not exactly turning out as planned...

Update expected shortly.

[shuggee]

Valid for Wed 22 Feb 2006 to Fri 3 Mar 2006

A generally cold picture is expected, with easterly winds blowing between high pressure to the north of the British Isles and low pressure to the south. Northern and western districts should see a fair amount of sunshine. Showers will affect eastern coasts and hills, more especially northeast England and East Anglia, and will be wintry, even on low ground away from the coastal strip. It will feel cold in the brisk wind, though winds will be lighter over Scotland. Widespread night frosts are expected inland and in the west, though winds should hold temperatures in the east. Fog is likely in the northwest, which may be freezing in places. The second half of the period may see more unsettled weather spreading from the southwest, with a risk of snow on the leading edge. The far north may stay cold throughout the period.


From http://www.meto.gov....look/index.html