BBC Weather Monthly Outlook...

[Stuart]

Summary

Moist and muggy midsummer mixture

May turned out to be a month of two halves. The first couple of weeks were notably cool. Indeed frost was quite widespread on a few nights, and there was snow on some northern hills.

During the second half of the month, late spring played catch-up. Indeed the temperature was nudging 30 degrees by early last week.

This fickle behaviour has masked a trait which has been evident for some months now - rainfall was again well below the normal for the time of year. As the dry weather continues, more than a few of us would welcome a rainier period.

It looks like the new month will indeed bring some wetter weather. However there should be enough warm sunshine in-between to keep sun-worshippers happy too.

Monday 31 May 2010 to Sunday 6 June 2010

June beckons rising temperatures

After a fairly benign Bank Holiday of dry, but rather cloudy weather, a front will spread rain across the United Kingdom on Tuesday.

The front will have cleared by Wednesday, and as high pressure builds across the country, we can expect increasing amounts of sunshine and rising temperatures.

The end of the week looks good for warm and sunny weather. Temperatures will be working their way up through the 20s Celsius - flaming June!

Monday 7 June 2010 to Sunday 13 June 2010

Warmth gives way to wet

High pressure may hang on just long enough to bring a hot and sunny start to the period. But change is on the way.

At least the farmers and gardeners will be pleased, because as low pressure edges in from the west, the rain clouds will gather from the west.

The breakdown to unsettled, wetter conditions looks like being slow and sporadic, but eventually we will all have seen some rain. Temperatures wil ease back down to somewhere near the norm for this time of year. Good growing weather...

Monday 14 June 2010 to Sunday 27 June 2010

Low pressure greets high summer

The sun is now at its strongest, heating things up quickly given half a chance. But low pressure, taking up residence near our shores, will help suck the warm air up to form big clouds and heavy downpours.

This combination of heat and water causes the atmosphere to become increasingly highly charged with energy; and thunder and lightning are nature's way of releasing that energy.

Expect interruptions to the first week of Wimbledon!

Next week

Will the weather prove as unreliable as England's World Cup chances?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/10209

[OldGreggsTundraBoy]

Monday 14 June 2010 to Sunday 27 June 2010

Low pressure greets high summer

The sun is now at its strongest, heating things up quickly given half a chance. But low pressure, taking up residence near our shores, will help suck the warm air up to form big clouds and heavy downpours.

This combination of heat and water causes the atmosphere to become increasingly highly charged with energy; and thunder and lightning are nature's way of releasing that energy.

Expect interruptions to the first week of Wimbledon!

good good :]

[Stuart]

Summary

Summer slips away as showers move in

Warm air wafted in from southern Europe to bring a real taste of summer to most of the UK. Temperatures peaked at 27C before the obligatory breakdown to thundery showers.

The weather pattern is now switching to something that is likely to please farmers and gardeners rather than sunseekers, with a much more unsettled theme and temperatures only just reaching the seasonal average in favoured spots.

Monday 7 June 2010 to Sunday 13 June 2010

Rain for most areas and a cool wind for many

An area of low pressure slides in from the Atlantic before becoming slow-moving across the English Channel. This is the driving force for the outbreaks of rain which will affect much of the UK during the early part of the week.

Southern areas should see a few sunny spells, but as temperatures creep up towards the June average, this will set off heavy and occasionally thundery showers. Some more persistent rain is likely towards the end of the week.

Northern areas are likely to turn drier and brighter, although a strengthening northeasterly wind will make it feel rather cool, especially near North Sea coasts.

Winds are expected to turn more northerly by the weekend, pushing away most of the rain, but keeping temperatures on the low side.

Monday 14 June 2010 to Sunday 20 June 2010

Winds stick in the northeast, so it won't warm up

The forecast suggests that the northeasterly winds will be very reluctant to give up. This means that there's little chance of the weather warming up significantly.

A few showers are likely, mainly in northern and eastern areas but overall amounts of rain are likely to be fairly small.

It will feel cool in areas facing the northeasterly winds, but sheltered southwestern parts should see the best of any sunshine and so it should be warmer here, with temperatures near expectations for mid-June.

Monday 21 June 2010 to Sunday 4 July 2010

What can we expect for Wimbledon?

The arrival of the longest day and the start of Wimbledon suggest that we should be reaching the height of summer.

Indications show a mixture of drier and brighter interludes but still with a signal of more unsettled weather at times. Rainfall and sunshine amounts are therefore expected to be around average throughout the period.

Temperatures should be near or slightly below normal, but perhaps slightly above in parts of southern and eastern England. So not exactly a heatwave, but hopefully some good tennis weather.

Next week

Looking for signs of summer as the school holidays approach.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/10209

[Stuart]

Summary

No summer scorcher, but it won't be a washout

Grey skies, steady rain, brisk easterly wind and a temperature of just ten Celsius. That would be a poor day in March, never mind mid-June, but it's what many parts of eastern Scotland had to put up with over the weekend.

So anything has to be an improvement on that, and the weather does look much drier with some sunshine at times as we head towards the longest day, but with winds reluctant to move out of the north or northeast we certainly won't see any heatwave.

Monday 14 June 2010 to Sunday 20 June 2010

Settled weather, but watch for the cool breeze.

A tongue of high pressure extending from the Azores puts a lid on the rain this week and should allow sunny spells to develop in all areas, although a weak front may sneak round the high to bring cloudier weather to Scotland and Northern Ireland for a time.

Winds will be light through the centre of the high, allowing the full strength of the sun to be felt, but a fresh to strong northeasterly wind will be a persistent feature across southeastern parts of the UK, making it feel cooler at times. Incidentally, these stronger winds are generated by a large area of low pressure across central Europe which may generate flooding rains for parts of Spain and France.

Back to the UK, and as the high slips away westwards at the end of the week, so a northerly airstream becomes established.

Monday 21 June 2010 to Sunday 27 June 2010

New dawn after summer solstice?

There's a reasonable chance of a clear dawn on the summer solstice as the weather stays settled over the weekend.

The week is likely to start with some occasional cloud and light rain at times in the far north, and some light showers in eastern parts, perhaps extending to other areas for a time.

It should feel warm in any prolonged sunshine, especially in the south and west in light winds. However, a persistent north or northeasterly breeze will make it feel cooler on northern and eastern coasts.

Conditions perhaps turning a little more unsettled for most parts later in the week and into the weekend, with spells of rain or showers.

Monday 28 June 2010 to Sunday 11 July 2010

Typical British summer mix

The remainder of June and start of July looks likely to continue fairly unsettled with occasional spells of rain or showers for most, but also with some drier and brighter interludes in between.

The wettest and breeziest conditions are currently expected to affect northern and western parts, whilst lighter winds and the best of the drier weather can be found further south and east.

Temperatures should be above normal for most of the UK, with the warmest places perhaps over eastern parts where some drier and brighter spells can be expected.

Next week

Moving into the main summer holiday period, but will the weather be in holiday mood?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/10209

[Stuart]

Summary

Hotting up. Still dry.

We've been on the wrong side of the ridge of high pressure so it's been cool and dry. We are about to switch into warming up mode where sunshine and heat predominate. Good news if you're growing only cactii.

Monday 21 June 2010 to Sunday 27 June 2010

The smell of summer

We start the week with the Summer Solstice and fittingly, day by day, the sun will lift temperatures incrementally. In England and Wales, this will be under mostly cloud-free skies. In Scotland and Northern Ireland more cloud is likely with a few showers, especially on Wednesday. The weekend could bring us 29 degrees C.

Monday 28 June 2010 to Sunday 4 July 2010

A hot start still with a southern bias

A hot start to the week will continue in England, Wales and often Scotland and Northern Ireland. Atlantic fronts are still likely to attempt entry into the northwest of the UK but will lose most of their rain before they reach land. Nevertheless sometimes cloudy and breezy weather will affect the northwest.

Monday 5 July 2010 to Sunday 18 July 2010

Even more of the same...

Except that this time the Atlantic fronts are held even further at bay: Scotland and Northern Ireland should enjoy more of the sunny and warmer weather. Some showers are still possible which may be thundery. Temperatures, of course, look likely to remain above normal.

Next week

Given the nature of weather patterns recently, the idea of dry weather continuing is valid. Thundery plumes or Atlantic front breakthroughs are both possible temporary ends to this summery spell but neither is strongly indicated.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/10209

[Stuart]

Summary

Rain at last but for how long?

Provisional figures indicate that the first half of this year will have been the driest since 1929. While the warm sunshine has been welcome after such a cold winter, there are serious concerns now about the lack of rainfall. At long last, however, there are indications that Atlantic low pressure systems will bring a significant change in our weather as we enter July.

Monday 28 June 2010 to Sunday 4 July 2010

Heat slowly gives way to rain

A gradual breakdown in the very warm and settled weather is likely. Details are elusive, but more southeastern parts of the UK can expect to hang on to temperatures in the high 20s celsius for a few more days. After a dry start to the week, scattered thundery showers will break out. Then later in the week, a deep area of low pressure will begin to spread wet and windy weather across the UK from the northwest - the first significant rain for a long time. The far southeast may stay dry into the weekend, but Wimbledon fortnight's luck looks like it's finally running out.

Monday 5 July 2010 to Sunday 11 July 2010

Rain at times, especially in the northwest

Air of Atlantic origin will push weather fronts across the UK. The fronts will be most active across the north and west of the country, and this is where most rainfall is expected. With greater shelter from those rain-bearing winds, the south and east of England and Wales are likely to have longer dry spells and the best of any warm sunshine. However it looks like many of us might have to watch the World Cup Final indoors rather than in the beer garden! Temperatures will generally be lower than of late.

Monday 12 July 2010 to Sunday 25 July 2010

Wettest in the north, driest in the south

With pressure lowest to the north of the UK, and highest to the south, we can also expect a north-south gradation in rainfall amounts. It will be windy at times too in those wetter northern areas, making it feel quite cool. The south of the UK can still expect a little rain at times, but in the sunshine it will get quite warm.

Next week

Will the wetter weather set the tone for the rest of the summer, or will the westerlies fail, raising drought concerns again?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/10209

[Stuart]

Summary

Rain a distant memory for southern areas

Watch the waves lapping on to a beach and you'll notice that although each one washes a different distance up the sand, there's always a line beyond which your feet will stay dry.

Increased mobility in the Atlantic weather patterns means that rain-bearing fronts will be washing across the UK from time to time over the next few weeks, but it looks as if the parched southeast will stay above the high tide line.

Monday 5 July 2010 to Sunday 11 July 2010

Rain for northwest, but the southeast bakes

It's a classic summer pattern this week, with a ridge extending from the Azores high pressure system across southern areas, while the jetstream steers Atlantic depressions across the north.

Some parts of northwest Britain may see as much as 100mm of rain through the course of the week, helping to boost water resources but not such good news for holidaymakers. It will also be rather windy at times.

The fronts will weaken as they push southeastwards into high pressure, leaving no more than residual cloud across England and Wales.

Temperatures should be mostly near the July average, although it looks as if southern Britain will start to turn hotter at the end of the week as air is drawn in from the near continent. This may be the trigger for a few thundery showers to develop over the weekend, but this is the only real hope for any significant rain in the southeast.

Monday 12 July 2010 to Sunday 18 July 2010

Rain stays in the north

The north and west of the UK will remain fairly unsettled throughout the period, with showers or longer periods of rain, some which may be heavy. It will also be windy at times, with a chance of gales in the far north and northwest at first.

Elsewhere, it should be more settled with generally dry weather and sunny periods, the most prolonged of these across southern and eastern parts of the UK. The chance of thundery showers continues into the first part of the week, but these will be very hit and miss.

Temperatures are expected to be around normal for the time of year in the northwest where cloudier conditions prevail. Elsewhere it should be warmer, and hot in the southeast at first.

Monday 19 July 2010 to Sunday 1 August 2010

Sunny start to school holidays

There are indications that there may be a good deal of dry and warm weather during the second half of July and into the start of August, with many places seeing temperatures above normal for much of the period.

Some areas will be drier than normal with average or below average rainfall, although more unsettled conditions may well persist for longer in western Scotland and Northern Ireland.

Sunshine amounts look to be around normal for this time of year across Northern Ireland and Scotland but are likely to be somewhat above average in England and Wales.

Next week

Reaching the peak of the summer holiday season. Will it be a sizzler?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/10209

[Terminal Moraine]

Deeply depressing. I sincerely hope Glacier Point is right and the Met' Office are wrong.

Without having any science to back it up, I'd find it surprising if the Met' Office forecast was right given the depth of Atlantic depressions in the last 10 days or so. In my experience depressions of that depth in summer eventually result in unsettled weather for all parts of Britain and it would be highly anomalous for a NW/SE split of such magnitude to persist for so long.

[Stuart]

Summary

It's all going by the book

Climatologically speaking, this has been a classic summer.

Scotland normally hopes for its sunniest skies during May and June. Sure enough, this year the clouds cleared and the rain stayed away.

With the start of July, we moved into phase two when the Atlantic depression track sinks southwards to bring more unsettled conditions to northern Britain, while an extension of the Azores high pressure system keeps it dry and warm in the south.

This classic pattern will waver for a time, allowing some much needed rain to spread to most areas for a time, but there are signs that normal service will be resumed from mid-July.

Monday 12 July 2010 to Sunday 18 July 2010

Low pressure the dominant force, so expect rain

As low pressure moves in and decides to stick around for a while, we can expect rain at times in most areas and perhaps some useful amounts where it has been an exceptionally dry start to the year.

Brisk winds will also be a feature and where these combine with the rain it will feel rather cool, although in general temperatures are expected to be close to the July average.

The end of the week sees the low moving away, pressure building again and the probablity of rain reducing again.

Monday 19 July 2010 to Sunday 25 July 2010

Rain easing, temperatures rising

Throughout the week, the weather will remain changeable with the northwestern half of the UK experiencing a mixture of showers, longer spells of rain and some dry and brighter interludes.

Southeastern parts will be generally drier and warmer but occasional rain should not be ruled out here either. Breezy at times, especially in the north.

Temperatures throughout the period are likely to be around normal in the north, though feeling cool in rain, but warm in the south and perhaps becoming very warm in some southeastern areas for a time as the week goes on.

Monday 26 July 2010 to Sunday 8 August 2010

It's that classic summer set-up again

The warm theme is expected to continue in southern parts of the UK, with much of England and Wales seeing temperatures above average.

Scotland, Northern Ireland and, at times, northeast England are likely to experience temperatures closer to normal.

Sunshine amounts seem likely to be around average for the time of year and rainfall totals should also be generally near normal, though Scotland may turn out to be slightly wetter at times.

Next week

Will they be flocking to the beaches, or heading for the indoor attractions as the school holidays get into full swing?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/10209

[Methuselah]

I like the look of that, Stu!

[Stuart]

Summary

A dodgy start but summer is again visible

This first week of the four will produce rain a-plenty, some thunder, Met Office warnings and limited area hotness. For the following three weeks, pressure should build and the sun is still strong so warm, dry weather looks likely.

Monday 19 July 2010 to Sunday 25 July 2010

Diagonal division

With a rain-bearing front straddling the UK through Wales and northern England, the week starts with Met Office warnings of heavy rain.

Summer heat will build in England, south of this rain band to give temperatures in the high 20s in for example London and Cambridge.

From Tuesday to Thursday, a flabby low pressure area will allow warm sunshine between slow-moving heavy showers. The real heat in eastern England will be swept away in a flurry of thunderstorms late Tuesday.

Highland Scotland has something of an exception with a significant northerly wind, rain and temperatures in the mid-teens at best.

Then to end the week, pressure starts to build, the northerly is cut off and the sun can be bolder.

Monday 26 July 2010 to Sunday 1 August 2010

A tenuous ridge of high pressure

An extension of the Azores high keeps the south of the UK dry and warm by day with reasonable sunshine. Model indications are that pressure will be low in the north of the UK. What isn't obvious is whether this will be significant in terms of wind. As far as temperature, sunshine and rain are concerned, the prognosis is - all average!

Monday 2 August 2010 to Sunday 15 August 2010

Looks like a continuation

Maybe unexpectedly, given what's happened so far this year, but with low confidence, settled, sunny and increasingly warm weather inhabits the south of the UK. Spells of rain still seem likely in the north. "The north" for these purposes is probably only Highland Scotland.

Next week

We would by this time be overdue for an Atlantic episode of rain, but there is no reason to think that'll happen...

http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/10209

[Stuart]

Summary

Averages look more likely than extremes

Active weather needs contrasts. A weather front forms along the boundary between different air masses. The bigger the difference in temperature and humidity between those air masses, the livelier the weather is likely to be.

By this time of year it becomes difficult to find those big contrasts in the region of the UK, as the surrounding seas warm towards their summer peak. This means that summer fronts tend to be weak affairs, with relatively small amounts of rain and summer depressions are generally pale imitations of their winter cousins.

No surprise then to find the outlook suggesting we're unlikely to see heatwaves or gales, with gentler summer weather coming our way.

Monday 26 July 2010 to Sunday 1 August 2010

Small changes with little impact

The high moisture content means a rather humid and fairly cloudy start to the week, but as one of those summer fronts pushes southwards it should bring a fresher feel midweek.

Southern parts of the UK should be mainly dry and warm on Friday, while an area of low pressure brings more unsettled weather to northern areas with rain or showers.

This unsettled weather is is likely to sink further southwards over the weekend, although it looks unlikely to reach the holiday beaches of southwest England.

Monday 2 August 2010 to Sunday 8 August 2010

Becoming settled, and warmer in the south

The first full week of August should find some southern, and particularly southwestern, areas remaining mostly dry with some sunshine but much of the UK is likely to see some cloudier and more changeable weather at first, with rain or showers from time to time.

The rest of the week should see more settled conditions returning to most parts, though still with occasional rain in the north. Winds mostly light or moderate, but sometimes strong in the northwest as low perssure systems brush by.

Temperatures will be close to average for the most part, but are likely to increase later in the period, perhaps becoming very warm in the south later.

Monday 9 August 2010 to Sunday 22 August 2010

Fine weather for peak of holiday season

There are signs that many places should continue the trend towards generally drier and sunnier conditions during the main part of the holiday season.

Rainfall signal is for near or below average amounts, and not surprisingly its northern areas that are most likely to see any unsettled conditions.

Temperatures should remain close to or above normal for most, but it looks like staying quite warm across southern England with the chance of a brief hotter spell at the start of the period as air is drawn in from the continent for a time.

Next week

The days are getting noticeably shorter, but will temperatures start to fall?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/10209

[Stuart]

Summary

Little sign of a long, hot summer

Statistics, as we all know, can hide the truth of the matter. By the latter part of July, the UK had received 146% of its average July rainfall.

Scotland, Wales as a whole and Northern Ireland all received over 150% of their monthly average. Capel Curig in north Wales received a hefty 340mm of rain. England too saw some 103% of its average, but parts of East Anglia and the southeast received just 20% of the average - only 5mm in places.

It is also worthy of note that Northern Ireland experienced its dullest July since records began in 1927. It was also notably cloudy across northwest England, north Wales and the west of Scotland.

Monday 2 August 2010 to Sunday 8 August 2010

Gardeners' delight but dismay for holidaymakers

A weak ridge of high pressure will fail to kill off showers across eastern Britain on Monday. More western areas should experience a drier and somewhat brighter day. Even here, Atlantic fronts will eventually spread cloud and some patchy rain to northwest Scotland and the far west of Northern Ireland by the end of the day.

The rain should have cleared much of Scotland and Northern Ireland by Tuesday. The remnants of the front will drift into western England and Wales, but rainfall amounts will be minimal. Southern and eastern England may see the odd shower but should stay dry. Rain may run into southern England overnight but be gone by Wednesday day. Rain or showers will lie across Scotland and Northern Ireland by this stage.

Thursday looks to be a cool, showery day for all but the south of Wales and southwest England. More fronts may bring rain back into the west of the British Isles by Friday.

Monday 9 August 2010 to Sunday 15 August 2010

High pressure builds but fails to settle the north

The unsettled weather seen across the British Isles during the first week in August will gradually become confined to northern parts. High pressure builds across the south to bring a settled spell to south wales and southwest England.

On the whole, it should be drier than normal in many parts, although northern Scotland may see further rain. Temperatures will be close to the seasonal norm, possibly slightly above in the sunnier south.

Monday 16 August 2010 to Sunday 29 August 2010

Chance of hot weather marking the end of August

The second half of the month will see further spells of rain across northern Britain and also at times in western areas. Wet weather in the west will be transitory with a good deal of dry weather here. More may be expected in the south and east.

Temperatures will be at or above the seasonal norm with a low chance that a spell of hot, sunny weather may affect wales and southern England.

Rain fall will be average or below, especially in southeast England.

Next week

Making holiday plans? Check out the trends here.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/10209

[Stuart]

Summary

August glints rather than sparkles

No doubt many of us hope August will bring a month of sunny weather with a little warmth, if not an out-and-out heatwave, depending on one's preference.

As I trawled through Met Office records, however, the first thing that came to hand related to heavy rain and flooding in Edinburgh, Fife and the Northern Isles within the first two weeks of August 2008. Northern Ireland was also badly affected around 15-16th August in the same year.

The signs are that August 2010 will break few if any records. High and low pressure systems have alternated in dominating the British Isles, bringing a mix of weather types and never allowing a prolonged spell of any one type. This pattern looks set to continue in the coming days.

Monday 9 August 2010 to Sunday 15 August 2010

Northwesterly flow caps week's temperatures

Low pressure to the north of Scotland offers an unsettled start to the week.

Even when the system has the good grace to drift towards Scandinavia, a ridge of high pressure to the southwest of the British Isles will maintain a northwesterly flow across many areas.

This will keep temperatures at or below the seasonal norm across many parts. The weak ridge offers something a little warmer for southern areas of both England and Wales towards the end of the week.

Rain will drift across all parts early in the week. Southern Britain will turn muh drier from mid-week whilst much of northern Britain will be a little wetter for longer, either from rain early and late on in the week or from copious showers midweek.

Monday 16 August 2010 to Sunday 22 August 2010

Cheerier prospects as pressure builds

High pressure will remain slow-moving to the southwest of the British Isles, with a strong ridge of high pressure becoming established across all areas.

Given their proximity to the high, southern parts of England will benefit most from above average amounts of sunshine. Temperatures will be well above average in this region and above average across many other areas.

Rainfall, not surprisingly, will also fall well short of the seasonal norm, and even in the north of Britain, where conditions will be a little more unsettled, rainfall will be below par.

Monday 23 August 2010 to Sunday 5 September 2010

Low close to northern Britain threatens summer

High pressure to the southwest will again exert a significant influence across many areas at the start of the period. A developing area of low pressure close to Iceland will unsettle things for Scotland and Northern Ireland.

The southern half of Britain will see temperatures and sunshine levels well above the seasonal norm. Scotland and Northern Ireland will also benefit from the high until low pressure begins to dominate.

Rainfall rates will increase across northern parts as the Icelandic low deepens.

Next week

What will the weather bring to the start of the new school year?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/10209

[Stuart]

Summary

It's all in the timing

So how would you rate the summer of 2010? Probably not that highly if you took your holidays recently, dodging the showers and waiting for the sun to shine.

But think back a few weeks to endless sunny days, temperatures of 30 degrees and water shortages in the northwest and it takes on a different complexion.

Having said that, this summer's reputation probably won't be enhanced by the generally unsettled theme predicted for the next few weeks.

Monday 16 August 2010 to Sunday 22 August 2010

Pick your day

It will pay to keep checking the forecast regularly this week in order to get the best out of the weather. There will be some windows of warm sunshine but in a progressive pattern these will change from day to day.

Brisk winds and showers won't help with the feel of things during the middle part of the week, and the path of the Atlantic depressions is likely to bring more rain our way at times into the weekend.

Monday 23 August 2010 to Sunday 29 August 2010

Changeable, so no change

Unsettled weather conditions are expected to continue to affect the UK throughout the second half of August.

Most places will see a mix of sunny spells and scattered showers, with the showers becoming heavy and thundery at times. Some of these showers may merge to give longer periods of rain at times, especially in the west of the UK, whilst eastern parts of the country are best placed for some drier and sunnier weather.

Daytime temperatures will be close to average for the time of year with the warmest weather likely in the east, where it may become warmer towards the end of the month.

Monday 30 August 2010 to Sunday 12 September 2010

Worth grabbing a late summer bargain?

The north and northwest of the UK will continue to see showers or longer spells of rain, these spreading further south and east at times. However, in general southern and southeastern areas are likely to see the best of any dry, bright and warm weather.

Temperatures are likely to continue around average for most of the UK but may be slightly above average in the south at times.

Next week

We need to face the fact that autumn is on the way, but will the weather have an autumnal chill?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/10209

[Stuart]

Summary

Summer's gone on holiday

How cruel the Great British Summer can be. As the nation heads to the beach, the sunshine deserts us. Torrential rain and buffeting winds may well be our enduring memory of summer.

Is it all over? Well it may depend on the up-coming hurricane season. That might sound even more ominous, but in fact these high-energy tropical storms can have the downstream effect of flipping our weather into a different pattern, which ironically might mean an improvement for us.

Computer models don't always handle this effect well. So confidence at longer range is particularly low at this stage.

Monday 23 August 2010 to Sunday 29 August 2010

Wet dry wet

No sooner do we emerge battered and sodden from Sunday night's storm than our attention turns to the next depression heading towards us later in the week. This brings a renewed prospect of heavy rain and gales.

On balance, Wednesday looks like providing a brief respite from the heavy showers. A drier interlude midweek, but despite some sunshine, temperatures wil remain on the low side.

The weekend's weather is still very much in the balance. A cool mixture of sunshine and showers is perhaps the most probable outcome.

Monday 30 August 2010 to Sunday 5 September 2010

Fading suntans

The school holidays draw to a close, and further spells of wind and rain confirm the autumnal feel. After an unremarkable Bank Holiday Monday the week continues on a cool and showery note.

However there are tentative hints that the weather pattern may begin to shift. As the Atlantic air responds to changes in the tropics, there are indications that high pressure may begin to build towards us. A drier prospect as the week ends, especially towards the southwest of the UK. Some pleasant sunshine by day, but still some chilly nights.

Monday 6 September 2010 to Sunday 19 September 2010

Highly uncertain

The weather through this period hinges crucially on whether the high pressure can hang on. As explained, this depends on developments upstream in the tropics.

There is no clear signal one way or the other at the moment, which suggests that a dramatic change in the weather should not be relied upon.

Expect rather more sunshine than many of us have seen through August, especially in the south of the UK. Some reasonably warm days in prospect, but with the equinox approcahing, the nights are now longer, and will be quite chilly at times.

Next week

It can only rain for so long. Let's hope so...

http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/10209

[Stuart]

Summary

From anticyclonic to cyclonic

September looked like holding promise but that's only true now if you are keen to refill your water butts.

Monday 6 September 2010 to Sunday 12 September 2010

Heavy rain at first, heavy showers later

The start of the week brings heavy rain to many and winds of some strength.

Pilots will have heard the term "rotor streaming", walkers may have experienced it without knowing: Southeasterly winds screaming over the Pennines and Highland tops at around 50mph on Monday and Tuesday will cause a cylindrical rotor on the lee side which could blow you back uphill. It will appear on aviation forecasts as severe turbulence with good reason.

Wednesday brings heavy showers, breeziness rather than windiness and a bit of warm sun. Then its fine with a few showers until the weekend when a spell of significant rain looks again likely.

Frost looks unlikely.

Monday 13 September 2010 to Sunday 19 September 2010

Still looks like autumn

Cooler than it should be, wetter than it should be, duller than it should be and all this with medium to high confidence.

Greece looks good...

Monday 20 September 2010 to Sunday 3 October 2010

Looks more reasonable than the last week

Back to averages for autumn. Except in eastern England where the pointers are for a lot of rain, so lower than average temperatures and too many overcast days.

Next week

Maybe October will give us one weeks break - between old hurricane cores

http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/10209

[Stuart]

Summary

And now into the chill - temporarily

At the start of this period the air is remarkable warm - and full of rain. By the end of the first week we'll have lost about 10 degrees Celsius.

A return to westerly winds for the remaining three weeks brings things back to normal.

Monday 13 September 2010 to Sunday 19 September 2010

Rain, rain go away...

"...come again another day" Those will likely be the thoughts of the inhabitants of western Scotland, northwest England and North Wales at the start of this week.

Forecast accumulations of 100mm (4in) on Monday in the western highlands or Cumbria may be repeated on Wednesday or Thursday in the following heavy showers.

Monday and Tuesday will also be very windy and especially turbulent in lee of the Pennines and highland peaks. In this same weather, temperatures by day and night will be relatively high with the Fohn effect knocking maxima up to the low twenties in Moray or in northeast England.

Sadly, From Wednesday to Saturday, the wind is from the northwest and will drop in strength: Think night time frost by the weekend.

Monday 20 September 2010 to Sunday 26 September 2010

The cold prevails at first

Winds from the northerly quarter will bring showers of snow to the Scottish mountain tops and rain showers for the rest of us, with the traditional sunny intervals between.

In this setup, few showers come south of Scotland and sunshine prevails, lifting temperatures by day to sub-normal levels. Inland nights will be cold. Possibly frosty.

By week's end, it looks like the weather returns from the Atlantic so temperatures rise to average, wind and rain become the temporary norm.

Monday 27 September 2010 to Sunday 10 October 2010

Unsettled - a useful yet non-specific word

Indications are that areas of low pressure will be the dominant feature throughout this period. You can expect windy weather, especially in the northwest of the UK. You can expect wet weather, especially in the northeast of the UK. And you can expect sunshine and showers in all parts of the UK. You can also expect temperatures a little above normal which suggests quite a bit of windy and cloudy weather.

Next week

On the assumption that the hurricane season actually shows some vigor, this could be stormy. (Maybe) But not constantly. (Probably)

http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/10209

[Stuart]

Summary

Difficult time for forecasters, human or machine

September and October bring the tail end of the Atlantic hurricane season. These late storms tend to favour a track which takes them into the northwest Atlantic.

The spread of warm, moist tropical air into a normally chilly region can play havoc with the weather, and it also tends to confuse the computer models which are used for prediction.

Forecasters know it's wise to be cautious in these situations, when confidence can be lower than normal.

Monday 20 September 2010 to Sunday 26 September 2010

Warm start, then probably cooler

With two ex-hurricanes amalgamating off the coast of North America, inevitably this will be a difficult week.

Some warm weather is guaranteed at first thanks to southerly winds and some pleasant sunshine, but as an elongated area of low pressure tracks across the UK midweek, there are signs of a change to colder northerly winds once it moves away.

That all depends on the behaviour of ex-hurricane Igor. If it remains slow-moving off the Newfoundland coast that will encourage an area of high pressure to form in the mid-Atlantic, inducing the chilly northerlies over the UK. However, if it decides to move out into the mid-Atlantic then we are more likely to see milder unsettled weather.

Monday 27 September 2010 to Sunday 3 October 2010

Chilly autumn nights

If the colder weather does win out, expect some chilly nights and a risk of frost during the early part of this period, with sunny spells by day.

For the last few days of September there are signs of a return to more unsettled weather with wind and rain in the northwest gradually extending further south and east by the start of October. Temperatures will tend to be near the seasonal average.

Monday 4 October 2010 to Sunday 17 October 2010

Typical autumn weather

An unsettled period with rain and showers at times and brighter interludes looks likely. England and Wales should see rainfall amounts a little above average for the period, with Scotland and Northern Ireland seeing nearer normal rainfall totals.

Temperatures should be around average for early October, though with more frequent overnight clear spells, perhaps leading to cold nights with frost, most likely in the northeast.

Next week

October can bring autumn gales, or calm and foggy nights. Find out which looks most likely next week.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/10209

[Stuart]

Summary

The ups and downs of autumn

It seemed last week as if the weather couldn't make up its mind. The temperature hit 25C in southeast England midweek, before northerly winds swept the warmth away. The overnight low of -4C at Tulloch Bridge in the Scottish Highlands on Saturday then made it the coldest September night in Scotland since 1993.

Cold weather seems less likely as we head into October, with Atlantic weather systems set to be the dominant influence. Expect rain at times and Autumn gales.

Monday 27 September 2010 to Sunday 3 October 2010

Warmer, wetter and windier

The week starts fairly quietly, as the transition from the cold north/northeasterly influence to a more westerly one begins.

The first weather system to push in from the west is hesitant, but quite active, and the combination of heavy rain and slow movement is a recipe for some large totals.

Later in the week things get more vigorous, as a developing jet stream provides the energy for more developed areas of low pressure.

Strong winds are likely, particularly towards the northwest of the UK, with gales and perhaps even severe gales in exposed coastal and upland areas during the weekend.

Monday 4 October 2010 to Sunday 10 October 2010

Changeable weather continues

Into the new week it should remain unsettled and autumnal, with bands of rain separated by sunny spells and scattered showers.

Further windy conditions are also likely, with the exposed western coasts of England and Wales joining Scotland in potentially seeing gales at times.

Temperatures for the whole period should be near normal by day, with relatively mild conditions overnight leading to a lower risk of frost.

Monday 11 October 2010 to Sunday 24 October 2010

Turbulent times

Unsettled throughout, with periods of wind and rain at times, but also some drier and brighter intervals. Northwestern areas are likely to see above average amounts of rainfall, with the rest of the UK around average.

It is expected to be generally mild throughout, with the southwest likely to see the warmest weather, although it will also be somewhat duller here with more cloud.

Other areas should see average temperature and sunshine amounts.

Next week

Season of mists, or autumn gales? Find out next week

http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/10209

[Stuart]

Summary

Mild, wet and windy start to autumn

Given the state of my lawn at the start of September and its condition by the end of the month, I could be forgiven for thinking that it had done nothing but rain the whole month.

As the statistics show, September was as close to an 'average' month as one could be given its place at a time of change in the climatic year.

Mean temperatures were just above the long-term average but there was only a degree or so in it. There was greater variation with regard to the rainfall averages, although even here, England and Wales were close to the seasonal mark.

Northern Ireland saw over 40 per cent more rainfall and Scotland around 30 per cent more than the norm. In something of a turn around, Scotland was nearly 20 per cent up on sunshine amounts and Northern Ireland some 10 per cent. England and Wales were very close to the long-term average.

Monday 4 October 2010 to Sunday 10 October 2010

More unsettled weather across the British Isles

Low pressure, lying to the northwest of Ireland, will continue to push a series of active fronts across many areas. On a positive note, temperatures, both by day and night, will be above or even well above the seasonal average.

The predominant wind direction for the period, south to southwesterly, will be responsible for this temperature profile. It certainly won't be the sunshine amounts. Rainfall, however, will feature through the week, especially so in central and eastern areas of England.

Monday 11 October 2010 to Sunday 17 October 2010

Some signs of settled weather as pressure builds

Yet more unsettled weather at the start of the week but there are some signs that pressure may build from the east to give a more settle look.

As pressure rises, so rainfall amounts will fall close to the average, especially in the east of Britain, where it will become dry but rather cloudy. Sunshine amounts won't be that high and temperatures will trend towards the seasonal norm, ending the relatively mild spell.

Monday 18 October 2010 to Sunday 31 October 2010

The high pressure retreats so back comes the rain

Low pressure will come dominate all parts of the British Isles as high pressure over the continent retreats eastward.

Temperatures will be only average by day but it appears unlikely that frost will be a widespread problem through the period.

As fronts make progress into northern and western areas, so rainfall totals here will climb to just above average levels.

Next week

Any signs of an Indian Summer? Check the prospects here.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/10209

[Stuart]

Published at 10:00, 11 October

(Next update at 10:00, 18 October)

Written by Peter Gibbs

Summary

Last gasp of summer?

The weekend saw temperatures reaching 22C in some sunnier parts of the UK, the result of warm air being drawn up from southern Europe at the end of the week.

Not all areas were so lucky. A dank, grey chill hung along many North Sea coasts of Scotland and England and with that cooler air poised to move southwards, lingering memories of summer warmth will be replaced by damp autumn coolness.

Monday 11 October 2010 to Sunday 17 October 2010

Cooler and cloudier

An area of high pressure is the dominating feature at the start of the period and this is expected to drift southwards as the week goes on.

This results in brisk easterly winds over southern areas gradually easing, while cloud amounts increase generally across the country as the weather system becomes slow-moving and gathers extra moisture.

Daytime temperatuers will gradually fall under this cloudy regime, but overnight frost and fog are only likely where cloud clears for any length of time.

High pressure is expected to finally give way at the end of the week and over the weekend, with stronger winds and outberaks of rain spreading south to all parts.

Monday 18 October 2010 to Sunday 24 October 2010

Increasing chance of rain

The week is expected to start on a changeable note, especially for the north and east, with the best of the sunshine across the south and west.

By the end of the period, the generally changeable theme is expected to continue, with occasional rain or showers, but some drier and brighter intervals as well.

Daytime and overnight temperatures will be around or just below average by the end of the week. However, there is an increasing risk of ground frost across more southern and western parts later, especially given any clear skies overnight.

Monday 25 October 2010 to Saturday 6 November 2010

Unsettled weather moving south

Generally changeable at first, especially in the north, but a ridge of high pressure is expected to maintain more settled weather in the south for a time.

This is likely to swap round later in the period as the weather settles down in the north, while becoming more changeable further south with rain at times.

Temperatures will remain generally a little below average with a continuing risk of frost overnight.

Next week

The nights are becoming much longer, but will they also turn colder?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/10209

[Stuart]

Summary

Cold start with no Indian Summer in sight

At first we draw in some Arctic air and snow showers in Scotland. Gradually the wind backs around through westnorthwesterly to southwesterly over the following three weeks.

None of that allows any significant warmth but should bring a lot of sunshine.

Wind and rain are normally the watchwords of autumn but it looks like the northwest of the UK will be the focus of most of the rain. We'll none of us escape the breeze and at least some showers.

Monday 18 October 2010 to Sunday 24 October 2010

Arctic chill. Briefly.

As pressure rises in the Atlantic and falls in Scandinavia, we in the UK are between the two: We suffer the consequence of a northerly wind which brings air from beyond the Arctic Circle.

This cold air will flood the whole of the UK during Tuesday and Wednesday leaving white-topped Scottish hills and another widespread inland frost on Tuesday night.

Daytime temperatures will drop to single figures even before you think about windchill. Hard frosts at night will be avoided as the wind will be generally brisk.

By the end of the week, the wind will back to a northwesterly, cutting off any further temperature drop and bringing rain into Scotland and Northern Ireland.

Monday 25 October 2010 to Sunday 31 October 2010

Not as cold

Confidence in the forecast is medium to low but a consistent signal is higher than average rainfall in Northern Ireland. This suggests a westnorthwesterly wind, bearing rain showers. The signal for rain in southwest Britain is lower than average, supporting this idea.

Other consequences of that weather set-up are quite a lot of sunshine in most areas and temperatures rising from last week's levels.

Sunday 31 October 2010 to Saturday 13 November 2010

Wet and windy Halloween?

The wind completes its journey back to a southwesterly. The implication of that is that a low pressure centre exists to the west of the UK.

Temperatures ought not to surprise, rain should be concentrated in the west and southwest and sunshine should show most in the east and in Scotland.

Next week

It's November. Expect cold, quiet, grey and damp conditions.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/10209

[Stuart]

Summary

A change of type, which looks set to stay

The early frosts this autumn have been unusually severe. One or two places broke low temperature records in September, and this last week has seen overnight temperatures as low as minus 5C in places as far apart as Dorset and Highland Scotland.

This week starts on a frosty note, but once the Atlantic weather systems break through then we look set to stay in a windier, wetter and much milder weather type for some time to come.

Monday 25 October 2010 to Sunday 31 October 2010

Frosty start, then mild and windy

After a cold, crisp start to the working week it's all change thereafter.

An active weather system pushes in from the Atlantic, bringing strong winds and heavy rain to all areas during Tuesday.

Once the milder south-westerly air-stream breaks through it should be here to stay, with temperatures reaching the high teens at times and staying well above freezing overnight.

There will be some heavy rain now and again, but also brighter spells. Expect the autumn leaves to be swirling around in the continuing brisk winds.

Sunday 31 October 2010 to Saturday 6 November 2010

Frost becomes a thing of the past

The unsettled theme is likely to continue throughout this period with some dry, bright interludes between the wetter and windier spells of weather. The west is most likely to see any heavier rain while the east remains drier.

It will often be windy, with gales in places and a risk of severe gales in the west. It is expected to stay mild for much of the time, with temperatures occasionally rising well above the early November average.

Sunday 7 November 2010 to Saturday 20 November 2010

Typical November weather, but not cold

After an unsettled start, much of the UK is expected to experience near or slightly below average rainfall. Most places will see a mix of showers and longer spells of rain, a typical November pattern, but also a good deal of sunshine in between.

Temperatures are expected to be above average for much of the time, thanks to a continuing feed of southwesterly winds from the Atlantic.

Next week

How much sunshine will we see in the short days of November? Find out next week.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/10209

[Stuart]

Summary

Swirling autumn leaves, but little frost

Nature has been putting on its own colourful display ahead of bonfire night. This autumn's combination of sunny days and cold nights has been perfect for developing strong leaf colour.

Over the next few weeks of course, the trees will be transformed to bare skeletons and that process is likely to be hastened by strong winds as a succession of Atlantic depressions roll in from the west.

There's little sign of any significant wintry weather in our monthly outlook, in fact those Atlantic winds will bring unusually mild weather at times.

Monday 1 November 2010 to Sunday 7 November 2010

Windy and surprisingly mild

Once the southwesterly winds crank up later on Monday, they're in for most of the week, reaching gale force at times in some exposed areas.

As a frontal zone waves northwards and southwards across the country, so the areas of wettest weather change, but western upslopes are likely to see the highest totals.

Very mild air to the south of the frontal zone has potential to produce daytime temperatures in the high teens and some exceptionally mild nights, while cooler air makes occasional inroads across the north.

That's more likely at the end of the week, as the weather patterns begin to move southwards.

Monday 8 November 2010 to Sunday 14 November 2010

Turbulent weather begins to ease

It will be windy at first with the risk of gales, with the possibility of severe gales in the south and west.

Thereafter, a change to quieter, drier and brighter conditions is expected, although showers are still likely, especially in the north and west, with the driest conditions in the south and east.

After a mainly mild start, especially in the south, temperatures are likely to drop to near normal, with some snow just about possible on the Scottish Mountains.

Monday 15 November 2010 to Sunday 28 November 2010

Less rain, lower temperatures

The westerly airflow is expected to become lighter during the second half of November, allowing the weather to settle down a little.

Rainfall amounts should decrease as a result, especially across the east of England and the southwest of the UK.

Temperatures are expected to start above average, but then to ease down towards the late November average of 8 to 10C later in the month.

Next week

Next week's monthly outlook will take us into the early days of December, but will it be a mild or wintry start to the final month of the year?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/10209