BBC Weather Monthly Outlook...

[Stuart]

Summary

Had enough of the snow? Good news! Spring is coming at last

The 1st March is the Meteorological start to the Spring season - although this year, you'd be forgiven for thinking just the opposite! The bitterly cold start to the new month has certainly defied that statement, but it's looks as though Spring is finally just around the corner.

However, now that we are officially putting the winter months behind us, we can take a look at how well the season was forecast back in September, as the statistics have now been compiled… and some of the results may be rather reassuring!

There were five main forecast issues that can now be verified. They are as follows:

- that the mean temperatures across Europe would be below average

- that the mean temperatures across the UK would be below average

- that the mean temperatures across southern UK would be below average

- that the total rain/snowfall would be below average

- that the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) would be negative

Of these forecasts, the Met Office correctly predicted four of them. In fact, in spite of having such a bitter, snowy end to February across Scotland and Northern Ireland, these countries statistically had a warmer than average winter season overall, which makes it the 5th such winter in a row here.

But for England and Wales, it has been the coldest winter since 1996-7, which is just what the Met Office predicted all those months ago. It must be said that it has also been very dry - not just as a season, but throughout 2005 as a whole, and a good deal of rain is now sorely needed.

So, with Spring on our doorstep at last, let's look ahead and see how many April showers are heading our way…

Monday 6th to Sunday 12th March

After such a bitter spell, the week will still begin on a cold and frosty note, but perhaps not as raw as it has been feeling. Monday morning begins with a widespread frost, and quite a sharp one at that, with early morning temperatures as low as minus 5 Celsius. There will still be a few snow showers across the northeast of Scotland, but not as many or as heavy! It will still be a cold day, with a few scattered wintry showers, but still plenty of fresh, crisp sunshine on offer.

But from Tuesday, things start to change. Low pressure heads in from the west - this will start an ongoing transition back to the mobile westerly weather pattern, which tends to bring us our wet and windy weather. In this instance, as the weather front approaches over such cold air, it's likely to bring some snow for a time, especially in the northeast, but it will turn to rain - and so we will all see a good dollop of rain either during Tuesday or through Wednesday when the low pressure really sets in.

By this time it's looking rather windy as well, so a proper springtime scenario! I will be a little quieter in Scotland, with some snow over the mountains, but then there is a bit of a lull in the proceedings here. Clearer skies here mean a frosty night but a sunny Thursday - and a cold Thursday night too. For the rest of the UK, there will be more cloud around, and so the nights won't be as cold, allowing the daytime temperatures to climb to average values through the day.

Into the weekend, it's a case of sunshine and showers, and by this time the temperatures should be heading into the mild category across the board.

Monday 13th to Sunday 19th March

During week two, we keep the westerly flow, and so bands of rain followed by sunshine and showers will continue to cross the UK. East Anglia looks as though it could get quite a bit of rain, and of course it is much needed here.

The westerly wind will be strong at times, with gales likely across exposed northern and eastern areas. But temperatures will stay mild for most, with Northern Ireland looking likely to see some very mild weather. But, with rising temperatures, it's worth mentioning that where there may still be lying snow, the inevitable thaw will now set in, and so there could well be some localised flooding.

With more cloud around and a generally milder regime, night-time frosts should become a distant memory - at least, any frost is only likely in localised pockets in the usual cold spots across the UK.

Monday 20th March to Sunday 2nd April

We keep to the sunshine and showers theme, which gives us a very seasonal flavour for the start of April! Again, the winds could be rather strong at times, and perhaps Scotland and Northern Ireland could be drier than usual.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ukweather/monthly_outlook.shtml

[Weather-history]

Well Everton's latest monthly prediction went embarrasingly pear-shaped after Thursday

[The PIT]

Well the these funny Monthly forecasts do keep us amused.

[Yeti]

I get so angry with these forecasts. I'm sorry (and this is not a personal dig at Everton) but there is no way it is going to be mild, wet and windy for next week, let alone the WHOLE of March.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn961.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn9616.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn9617.png

Mmmm. Very zonal, with a strong W'ly flow over the UK, bringing heavy rain and mild temps, with an Ice day in Scotland.

Now we can just laugh it off, but there will be poor souls out there who might be basing there March activities upon that!

[shuggee]

Today's update:

The good old British weather has provided us with plenty to complain about recently. We've gone from cold and wintry to mild and wet. At times it has been dull but however you look at it, it's always been interesting.

We now find ourselves in that transition period between winter and spring. This often leads to some impressive temperature variations. As you'll recall we began the month with temperatures struggling to reach 2 or 3 Celsius in a bitter northerly wind. Westerly winds then lifted temperatures to 14 Celsius in some parts by the middle of last week.

Winter returned with a vengeance this weekend and with 2 weeks to go before British summertime, spring remains on hold.

Monday 13th to Sunday 19th March

This is going to be another cold week for much of the UK. At this time of year we should expect temperatures to be creeping into double figures. We may well see these kind of values in Northern Ireland but the rest of us will find temperatures struggling to reach 5 or 6 Celsius. Mind you, it won't even feel as warm as that by the middle of the week as a bitter easterly wind sets in.

That same easterly wind will bring snow flurries to eastern parts on Scotland and England by the end of the week. Ahead of that, Snow is again expected across Scotland, Wales and much of Northern England.

It looks like a fairly cloudy week for many of us. There should be some brightness in the southeast at first but the majority of this week's sunshine will come late on in sheltered western parts but even then totals are likely to be below average.

Monday 20th to Sunday 26th March

High pressure sitting over the near continent will lessen its hold somewhat, but it should be dry for much of the week. There should be a fair amount of sunshine by day, but clear skies will mean yet more frosty nights. Patchy fog is also likely.

Temperatures will also struggle by day in spite of the sunshine. The only area that's looking a little less cold is the far north and east of Scotland, where temperatures should manage to creep up to near normal values.

However, we will all still be struggling to see much, if any, rain. The whole week looks decidedly dry, especially towards the east where the influence of that high pressure is strongest. There may be a little rain (or even a few snow flurries) elsewhere, but it won't amount to anything significant.

Monday 27th March to Sunday 9th April

Finally, during the latter half of the month, the high pressure should give way to the more changeable westerly air stream of low pressure. This should establish a much more Spring-like feel, with temperatures recovering across the UK (even becoming very mild for some!).

Bands of rain, followed by showers, will become a regular feature. However, with cold air having sat across the UK for such a long time the first band of rain coming in could bring snow for a time to end off March.

As it will be more unsettled, there won't be as much sunshine - but it will feel a lot more comfortable without the raw wind and frosty starts.

From: http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ukweather/monthly_outlook.shtml

[shuggee]

Today's monthly forecast from the BBC:

You may recall the saying, "As the days get longer the cold gets stronger." We start this period at the Spring Equinox with the Sun passing the Equator on 20th March. However, despite the imminent start of BST (British Summer Time on Sunday 26th), summer-like weather still seems an awfully long way away.

So far, this March has been the coldest for the best part of 20 years. Much of England and Wales haven't seen temperatures in double figures for many weeks now. Compare that with this time last year when temperatures were close to 20 Celsius across much of the UK.

If, like me, you're fed up with this cold spell, the bad news is that it doesn't look like we'll see any proper warmth for another couple of weeks.

Monday 20th to Sunday 26th March

The long and short of it is that we need to brace ourselves for yet another cold week. The good news is that we will lose the easterly wind. The bad news is that we pick up a northerly wind. This will bring another blast of snow to northern Scotland.

At the other end of the UK, Devon and Cornwall can expect some rain to start the week but elsewhere, we're looking at a largely dry week with temperatures staying well below average.

High pressure looks set to dominate around the middle of the week with long spells of pleasant sunshine. Thereafter, milder, wet and windy weather will attempt to break through towards the end of the week. It will be a struggle and it may turn to snow over the higher ground.

Regardless of this, I think it's still likely to be rather chilly when we change those clocks at the weekend.

Monday 27th March to Sunday 2nd April

High pressure will remain close by and it should be dry for much of the week. I think we can expect a fair amount of sunshine by day, but clear skies will mean yet more frosty nights. Patchy fog is also likely.

Temperatures will still struggle by day in spite of the sunshine, and rainfall amounts are likely to be on the low side. There may be a little rain (or even a few snow flurries), but it won't amount to anything significant.

Monday 3rd to Sunday 16th April

The wintry joke should just about be over by April Fool's Day with high pressure giving way to a more changeable air stream. Sunshine and showers are expected but temperatures will continue to struggle right up to the Easter period.

Night frosts will remain a feature of the forecast for the foreseeable future but as the sun continues its passage north, it will inevitably gain sufficient strength to make it feel pleasant at times.

From: http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ukweather/monthly_outlook.shtml

[shuggee]

This week's ditty:

Harold Wilson once said that "a week is a long time in politics", it's also a long time in weather. After the recent cold spell, last week began with temperatures just about reaching average values across much of the United Kingdom.

Lee-on-Solent was the warmest place on Monday with a high of 11C (52F). By the end of the week most of us were enjoying genuinely spring-like temperatures and by the weekend, parts of East Anglia saw temperatures lift to the dizzy heights of 17C (63F).

The milder weather also brought some welcome and useful rain to the parched areas of southern England. The coming days will bring further rain at times but also some pleasant spells of sunshine in between.

Monday 27th March to Sunday 2nd April

Low pressure will remain close by for much of this week. This will continue to feed mild air in from the south or southwest and will also lead to spells of wet weather across all parts.

Prospects look good for some useful rain too across the Midlands, East Anglia and the southeast. These areas will probably see the wettest weather with above average totals.

It will be rather cloudy so I would not expect to see huge amounts of sunshine. Having said that, there will be some decent sunny spells at times and if you're sheltered from the wind it may even feel warm.

Despite the cloud, I think we can generally look forward to a mild week with temperatures remaining above if not well above average, particularly in the south. Colder weather is expected to return to the north during the latter part of the week and that could bring with it some overnight frosts. These should be slight and reasonably well scattered.

Monday 3rd to Sunday 9th April

High pressure is expected to build from the north and west allowing a cooler northwesterly airflow to develop with some decent spells of sunshine. Temperatures are likely to dip below average with overnight frosts becoming a little more widespread.

Northern Ireland may well become rather dry but normal amounts of rainfall are expected elsewhere. There may even be some wintry weather for a time in the north.

Monday 10th to Sunday 23rd April

The area of high pressure is not expected to be with us for long and as it eases away, a southwesterly flow is expected to return across the UK. I think less chilly rather than mild could be a fair reflection on the expected temperatures.

Rainfall totals may remain a touch below the norm for most of us with the sunniest skies across the north and west.

From: http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ukweather/monthly_outlook.shtml

[Stuart]

Summary

Mixed fortuned this month! Springtime sunshine and showers, but a chilly start for some.

April Fool's Day may have come and gone for another year, but at least the month started on a relatively Spring-like note! Through the past week, temperatures have at last started to rise for most of us, although that milder weather has really struggled to reach the far north of Scotland.

Because of this, there has been a wide range of temperatures across the UK this week, with values typically of just six or seven degrees in the Highlands and Northern Isles of Scotland, whilst further south, temperatures have been comparatively soaring into the high teens. Northern Ireland had a high of 16 Celsius on Monday afternoon in Ballykelly with temperatures across Lincolnshire and the Channel Islands reaching 17 and 16 Celsius respectively on Thursday and Friday.

With a slight change in the wind direction, it's looking a touch cooler for the start of this week, but as the month marches on, it's looking like a rather typical April; lots of showers, some sunshine in between, with some frosts likely during the odd quieter interlude. This bodes fairly well for the upcoming London Marathon, as a warm sunny day is the last thing you need if you're going to be pounding the streets for a few hours on the 23rd April!

So, without further ado, let's look ahead to the outlook for the next four weeks….

Monday 3rd to Sunday 9th April

The week begins with a slight change in the wind direction. From the mild westerly that has brought temperate conditions for many of us, we now find ourselves in a northwesterly or even northerly wind. It's the result of a high pressure system to the west of the UK trying to nudge in, and so the chillier wind prevails.

But, having said that, it will also be more settled for some of us. The best of the sunshine will be across Wales and the southwest of England, which is closest to the centre of the high pressure. Broadly, it's a case of sunshine and showers, but the most frequent showers will be across the northwest of the UK, and could be wintry over the hills of Scotland and across the Pennines too. Later in the week, more persistent rain will push southeastwards across the UK, bringing a spell of rain for all of us.

With a colder airflow, and with showers dying away by night, clearer skies will mean a return to night-time frosts, which could be a shock to the system if you've been enjoying the mild mornings!

So, on the whole, it should be a bright and rather sunny week, with showers at times and some chilly mornings for a time.

Monday 10th to Sunday 16th April

Northern Britain looks most likely to stay unsettled, with rain or showers, and temperatures around average for mid-April. Further west, it's looking rather cloudy and cool, although overnight frosts are likely to be more frequent here.

Central and southeastern England could end up rather wet - the rain is much needed, so it is a good thing - but of course that means that there won't be a lot of sunshine and it will feel rather cooler than you might expect.

Monday 17th to Sunday 30th April

Northern Britain again looks pretty damp - but largely by staying cloudy and drizzly rather than seeing heavy bursts of rain from time to time. In fact, temperatures could start to climb into the mild category, so it may even feel warm despite the drizzle!

Night frosts will remain a feature of the forecast for the foreseeable future but as the sun continues its passage north, it will inevitably gain sufficient strength to make it feel pleasant at times.

Further south, it's still a wet outlook, and for the southeast again too. It will stay on the cool side and, although there will be showers, there should be some sunshine in between to enjoy as well.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ukweather/monthly_outlook.shtml

[shuggee]

What a different week it's been! Hasn't it been chilly? And to boot, there's been more snow in the north west, even some wintry showers further south too over the weekend, and some very chilly, frosty mornings. Surely now, things will start to warm up; otherwise, we'll still be talking about snow in May!

We may have had lots of showers this last week, but relatively few have reached the southeast corner, where rain is still so badly needed. Perhaps we'll get some more significant rainfall here at last this week - but still, whatever falls won't be nearly enough to alleviate the drought problems which still prevail.

So are we in for a milder spell? Let's have a look at the month ahead…

Monday 10th to Sunday 16th April

The northerly winds over the weekend finally give way to a brisk, but much milder, westerly wind. This will enable temperatures to recover quite dramatically, and we should see highs back up to the mid-to-high teens again through this week, and in some areas it will feel really rather warm - at last!

With a westerly wind, it usually means low pressure to the north of the UK, and broadly speaking, this will be the case. It also signifies bands of rain, and we can expect some more significant rainfall for most of the UK this week, mostly in the northwest of the UK, which is fairly typical when rain heads in from the west. There should still be a good amount of rain in the very thirsty southeast corner.

Western coasts will be predominantly cloudy, with an onshore wind, but in more sheltered central and eastern areas, not only will it be relatively drier, but also sunnier - so you're more likely to see sunshine inbetween the spells of rain, and it will get warmer in the sunshine too.

As a general overview, Monday will be quite settled with sunshine in the south, and rain spreading into the northwest through the day. That rain spreads into the southeast by Tuesday, although it won't be as heavy by this time, but further showers or rain will still be around for the northwest of Scotland mostly.

Midweek, southern areas are looking generally dry, with the best of any sunshine along the south coast, but cloud and rain for the northern half of the UK again. Thursday sees a wet start in the south, but then sunshine and showers for all of the UK. Friday again is a mixture of sunshine and showers, although a few more showers will reach southern areas in the brisk wind.

Over the weekend, it remains unsettled, although it's looking drier with more sunshine in the south and east.

Monday 17th to Sunday 23rd April

During this week, high pressure starts to build from the southwest, which means two things: it will be more settled, with a good deal of dry and sunny weather; also, daytime temperatures will climb further, so it will feel really quite warm! Still, with clearer skies at night, it will still be chilly after the sun goes down, although we should stay without a frost. It could get a little misty or foggy in the early mornings though.

Any wet weather will be the result of the daytime sun sparking off a few showers, so most of these are likely inland, with few if any around the coasts.

In fact, coastal warmth could start the year's sea breezes - this will mean a refreshing onshore breeze setting in through the afternoons, mainly in the east of the UK.

Of course the London Marathon hits the streets on Sunday the 23rd, and if it stays warm, then that's not such good news for those taking part. But stay tuned, and I'll make sure you have a further update on this next week

Monday 24th April to Sunday 7th May

The wind will turn more northwesterly, and so it will turn a little cooler towards the end of the month. It looks fairly dry again, with showers if anything, but no significant rainfall from weather fronts at this stage.

Sunshine will be in greatest supply across the southwest, closest to the centre of the high pressure system.

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[Stuart]

Summary

Staying unsettled, but warmer for a time.

It's been a long weekend of course, with a pleasant Easter break, and it's even been rather warm for some of us in the sunshine! Even so, this Spring has really had a slow start, and the coming few weeks don't seem to be bringing much more warmth. Having said that, considering that 15cm of snow fell in parts of Kent last week, the snow should be firmly behind us for now! Well, for most of us anyway… The London Marathon finally takes place this coming Sunday, with thousands of determined runners ready to take on the gruelling challenge in our capital.

Read on to see how the weather may help or hinder those taking part, and those lining the streets to cheer the brave souls on!

Monday 17th to Sunday 23rd April

Easter Monday brings mixed blessings to start off a rather unsettled week. After a cloudy start in the northwest, heavy showers persist over western Scotland but sunny spells will appear elsewhere. England and Wales will be quite cloudy at times but with sunny spells and showers developing.

By Tuesday, more persistent rain gathers across Northern Ireland, Wales and northern England, with cloud but very little rain appearing in the south of England. Scotland stays showery in the west, but bright and mainly dry in the east.

Wednesday sees the rain turn heavier and more persistent across England and Wales, but the rain will again be lighter in the southeast corner, where it is still so badly needed. Scotland and Northern Ireland look mostly dry with some sunshine again for eastern Scotland.

By Thursday, it's the turn of Scotland and Northern Ireland to get the rain - it will still feel mild though, as the breeze is coming in from the southwest. Light wind across England and Wales may mean a misty start, but it's looking like a dry day with plenty of sunshine, especially across southern and eastern England.

The end of the week and the weekend keeps the rain and/or showers in the northwest, with some quite strong winds developing at times. England and Wales may see a little rain at times, more so on Saturday, but for the most part it will be dry and bright, with sunny spells, and still feeling mild.

And so, at this stage, the London Marathon is likely to be a dry day, with sunshine and perhaps on the warm side too - not great for the runners, but perfect for all you Londoners to get out there and cheer them on, so you have no excuses!

Monday 24th to Sunday 30th April

With the wind coming in from the southwest, temperatures should hold well in the west, but more than likely it will turn warmer again for sheltered eastern areas. In the shelter from the westerly wind, most of the sunshine will be across eastern parts of the UK, mainly eastern England.

Showers or longer spells of rain will be the general outlook, although there will be some sunny spells in between showers, with only a few of the showers getting into the southeast of the UK. The heaviest downpours will be in the northwest, with some rather prolonged spells of rain here through the week.

Monday 1st May to Sunday 14th May

For the beginning of May, it's all looking rather uncertain - anything could happen! The most likely scenario is for the weather to remain changeable, with showers but a fair amount of sunshine.

However, as a northerly breeze is looking likely, temperatures could be rather disappointing, in spite of the sunshine, with some particularly chilly nights - at least, with the warmth of the sun, the daytime temperatures should recover somewhat, but it will still be cool for May.

13th May is Cup Final Day - Is it likely to rain or shine? More details next week!

[Stuart]

Summary

Sunshine and showers. Chilly at night.

This last week has felt a bit more like Spring at long last! Although there have been a few chilly nights, by day the temperatures have been quite respectable, getting into the mid-teens, and even hitting 21 Celsius in Jersey on Friday afternoon! There was a good deal of warm sunshine around over the weekend too, in spite of a weather front sweeping a band of cloud and rain slowly across the UK, giving some rain to all of us, but again not nearly enough in the drought ridden southeast.

It also brought rain for the marathon - not heavy, in fact it may well have been much needed for the runners although it did start off on rather a muggy note.

But Spring continues with an unsettled theme this week - perhaps with more sunshine to come by this weekend? Read on for more details….

Monday 24th to Sunday 30th April

The week starts off on a dry note, albeit rather cloudy on Monday morning across the southern half of England and Wales, which is just really the leftovers from the clearing weather front. Clear skies across the rest of the UK will mean a chilly Monday morning, even with a touch of frost here and there, but with lots of sunshine too. But cloud will gather across Northern Ireland with rain heading in late in the day, and rain then sweeps in from the west across the UK through Monday night giving a rather cloudy and damp Tuesday, except for Scotland where the sun should come out again.

Through the middle of the week, more rain sweeps in from the west, and like the last weather front, the heaviest rain will be across northern and western areas, with not so much getting into the southeast.

But towards the end of the week, high pressure builds, bringing a northwesterly wind which will knock a fair few of the remaining showers on the head and bring us some more sunny weather instead. Clear skies at night will mean some chilly starts, but the temperatures should recover by day - perhaps staying on the fresh side, but it should still feel pleasant enough in the sunshine.

There will be some showers around, mainly around the northwest, brought it on the breezy, whereas southeastern areas will see the most sunshine by this time.

Monday 1st to Sunday 7th May

This week will stay largely under the influence of high pressure, with chilly nights, sunny days (albeit still with a fresh breeze) and rather a lack of rain. It's fair to say that during the day, some fair weather cloud may well bubble up through the days, and perhaps bring a few scattered showers, but on the whole it is still looking quite settled.

We may still be at risk of some overnight frost though, so tender plants will still need to be protected for a little while yet.

Of course, the week starts with a Bank Holiday - and at present, it's looking rather fine, so there should be some lovely weather to enjoy if you're planning to head out for a bit of outdoor activity!

Monday 8th to Sunday 21st May

It's still looking cool through the next two weeks as well, keeping the risk of some frosty nights. It may well slowly turn more unsettled for some, with rain at times coming into eastern areas from the continent, but with high pressure holding on to the west of Britain, the best of the sunshine will be Northern Ireland, Wales, and western parts of England and Scotland..

Even by day, it will be a little cool for May - and more so along the east coasts where onshore breezes from the North Sea will keep more cloud and a chilly wind here.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ukweather/monthly_outlook.shtml

[Stuart]

Summary

May is likely to be a rather unsettled month with showers or longer spells of rain. Temperatures are expected to be generally above average.

I'm pleased to say that the weather looks set to behave itself over the next few weeks. By that I mean that it will be changeable with spells of rain for all of us. This is particularly good news across the south of course where some regions are now one month into a hose pipe ban.

It remains unlikely that we will get enough rain in the near future to impact much on the reservoirs, especially when you bear in mind that April proved to be a disappointingly dry month. However, it is a step in the right direction.

This week will also see temperatures moving back in the right direction. The chilly northerly breeze has gone allowing warmer weather across all parts. Essentially, it looks like a recipe for some very good growing weather.

Monday 1st to Sunday 7th May

Low pressure will remain close by for much of this week. This will continue to feed mild air in from the south or southwest and will also lead to spells of wet weather across all parts of the UK.

We are likely to get some lively showers in the coming days, especially as temperatures climb. This week will be one of huge temperature contrasts. After a chilly Bank Holiday we should see temperatures nudging up about 10 degrees by the end of the week. Temperatures could well reach the mid 20s Celsius.

We should all get to enjoy some good sunny spells this week but there will obviously be a fair amount of cloud around too with the afore mentioned showers. Some of this will become thundery as that warmth sets in.

All in all this week looks like a very spring-like week with sunshine and showers. At the same time, overnight frosts should become a thing of the past.

Monday 8th to Sunday 14th May

Weak areas of low pressure are expected across the UK suggesting spells of rain for all of us this week. At this stage we may even see the heaviest rain just where we need it most, across East Anglia and the southeast of England.

Average sunshine amounts are expected but temperatures are set to remain above average both by day and by night.

Monday 15th to Sunday 28th May

We could see a slight increase in atmospheric pressure during the second half of the month. So, after a fairly wet start for many of us, drier weather could well push in from the near continent later on.

Both temperatures and sunshine amounts should be pretty close to the seasonal norm.

The weather was a winner for Chelsea's title win on Saturday. Can this year's flower show expect the same at the end of the month?

[url=http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ukweather/monthly_outlook.shtml]http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ukweather/monthly_outlook.shtml

Edited May 8, 2006 by shuggee

[Stuart]

Summary

Northern areas will get off to a dry start but most of us can expect showers or longer spells of rain with sunny spells in between.

When Shakespeare wrote his Sonnet 18, he could easily have been making reference to last week's weather.

"Shall I compare thee to a summer's day? Thou art more lovely and more temperate: Rough winds do shake the darling buds of May."

Last Thursday's very warm weather across much of England and Wales compared well with any summer's day. The temperature hit 28 Celsius (82 Fahrenheit) in central London. It was in fact the warmest day here for exactly 8 months.

The weather did become more temperate into the weekend with temperatures closer to the mid-teens. There was also some much need rain to quench those darling buds of May. Mind you, some areas had torrential, thundery downpours leading to flooding in parts of western Scotland and eastern England.

Normal service should be resumed in the coming days. We can look forward to that typical springtime combination of sunshine and showers.

Monday 8th to Sunday 14th May

High pressure to the north of us will feed keen easterly winds across the United Kingdom for much of this week. This anticyclone should build through the week allowing the winds to gradually ease down.

Northern parts will have a largely dry week with rain or showers in the south. It should become drier around the middle of the week but heavy, thundery rain is possible later in the week…just in time for the first cricket test match at Lords.

The easterly wind will make it rather misty and cloudy around the east coast with the best of the sunshine across the sheltered west.

Temperatures will be close to average, possibly above in western Scotland at times. It does look like a chilly week in the east, especially early on, with those winds feeding in from a cool North Sea.

Monday 15th to Sunday 21st May

The pressure pattern looks pretty slack across the UK this week so winds will at least be light. It will allow us to get full value from any sunshine that we do get.

I think it will be rather cloudy at times but at least frost shouldn't be a problem. Average rainfall is expected in most parts but we may start with thundery downpours in the south with the driest weather in northwest Scotland.

Monday 22nd to Sunday 4th June

A ridge of high pressure will squeeze any rain away from our shores but it may become rather cool in west to northwesterly winds.

Average sunshine is likely. However, we could get some lively showers across the northwest. We might also find showers running down the North Sea coast into East Anglia at times.

How's it looking for this year's Derby?

Link http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ukweather/monthly_outlook.shtml

[shuggee]

The variability of our weather over recent days adds weight to the old saying "Cast not a clout 'til May be out." Last week began with temperatures peaking at 19 Celsius (66 Fahrenheit). By Friday the temperature in central London hit 25 Celsius (77 Fahrenheit).

Saturday brought a huge contrast for many of us with temperatures dropping some 10 Celsius. I think it would be fair to even call it cold across parts of northern England and Wales. Temperatures struggled to reach the mid-teens in the cloud and the rain (which is a little below the May average).

There was also a little snow over the peaks of Highland Scotland. I'm pleased to say that temperatures will creep back towards the low 20s over the next few days.

Monday 15th to Sunday 21st May

Low pressure centred to the northwest of the UK will allow an unstable flow of southwesterly winds across us this week. This will bring showers or outbreaks of rain to all areas but there will be some dry weather in between.

The wettest weather is likely to be in the west and north but all parts will have some rain this week. This should help to dampen down the high amounts of pollen that have been troubling many people and will also bring much needed useful rain to the south.

It will be a rather cloudy week but there will be some warm sunshine to be enjoyed.

The warmest weather will be in the south or southeast but don't expect temperatures to return to the mid-twenties…at least not just yet. Northern areas can expect highs around the mid-teens with temperatures in the south peaking around the 20 degree mark.

Monday 22nd to Sunday 28th May

With very little change in the overall pressure pattern, bands of rain will continue to move across the UK, interspersed by brighter conditions with showers. The heaviest rain will be in the west. It will also be rather windy here at times.

Eastern parts will have the best of the sunshine which will lead to the highest temperatures.

Monday 29th May to Sunday 11th June

A changeable, mainly westerly airstream is expected to prevail. This is likely to bring a good deal of cloud with outbreaks of rain.

Average sunshine is likely overall. I suspect that central and southeastern areas will have the driest brightest weather but even here, rainfall totals should be close to average.

Not all eyes will be focused on the World Cup which gets underway on 9th June. Check the forecast for the British Grand Prix taking place the following weekend.

From: http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ukweather/monthly_outlook.shtml

[Stuart]

After an unsettled start to the period, it is set to become drier during the early part of June, but it will remain rather cool.

We now have seven water companies in the southeast who have imposed a hosepipe ban. Two, Mid Kent and Southern, have applied for a drought order. This comes off the back of ministers granting Sutton and East Surrey Water the first drought order for a decade.

It does seem ironic that this is all going on during what is actually a pretty wet spell of weather for all of us. Even in London on Friday night going into Saturday morning, 14mm of rain fell in 12 hours and at one stage, 7mm of rain was recorded in only one hour. This was followed by more heavy downpours on Sunday.

Despite this, we do still need plenty more rain across the south. So I guess its good news that it is set to remain unsettled, at least for the next couple of weeks and don't expect a heatwave anytime soon either. If anything, temperatures will be on the low side for much of June.

Monday 22nd to Sunday 28th May

“Wet, windy and cool”

Low pressure will remain close to the United Kingdom this week maintaining unsettled, and at times unseasonably windy weather across our shores.

Showers or longer spells of rain, which will be heavy or even thundery at times, will bring above average rainfall to many areas. And we'll get the rain where we need it most with some parts of the south getting well above average totals.

With a wet week expected, it follows that sunshine will be somewhat at a premium and most places will be rather cloudy. There will of course be some sunshine in between the rain. Make the most of any sunshine that you do get.

Dull, wet conditions coupled with winds coming in from between the west and north will suppress daytime temperatures. We can expect highs to generally be around the mid teens Celsius. Meanwhile, clear skies overnight will allow a touch of ground frost in sheltered locations.

Monday 29th May to Sunday 4th June

“Becoming a little drier”

Rising pressure across the southwest will encourage west to northwesterly winds across much of the UK. This will continue to peg temperatures back. In fact, some areas will still be prone to a touch of ground frost in clearing skies.

Drier conditions are expected to move in as the week goes on with longer spells of sunshine developing, especially in the south and west.

Monday 5th to Sunday 18th June

“Largely fine and dry”

With high pressure extending across most parts of the UK, it looks like we should get a proper taste of summer at long last.

It will be largely dry and despite the winds continuing to feed in from the west or northwest, with light winds, it will feel decidedly pleasant in any sunshine. The best of which will once again be in the south and west.

Will it be rain hats or sunglasses that win by a head at Royal Ascot this year?

Monthly forecasting

Forecasting the weather beyond about a week ahead stretches even the most experienced weather forecaster. Complex numerical weather forecast models from the Met Office and the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) are run many times for the month (and season) ahead to build up a picture of the likelihood of different weather types affecting the UK

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ukweather/monthly_outlook.shtml

[shuggee]

So they've stopped using the headline and map - and instead illustrated their forecast with a photo... Marvellous. Perhaps writing words will be considered too elitist next.

[Stuart]

Becoming dry, settled and warm.

Following on from last week, it seems that the last seven days of rain is finally starting to have some effect on the badly depleted reservoirs across the southeast of England. BBC London this week stated that the Thames area has seen its water stocks beginning to recover from the prolongued drought, although Suffolk, for example, still has a long way to go before the recent wet spell has any significant effect.

Of course, although rain is still badly needed across the southeast (the last week's rain has been merely a drop in the ocean, if you'll pardon the pun), this month starts with the Spring Bank Holiday - so all eyes of course are on the weather!

In fact, if you're hoping for a fine Bank Holiday, or if you would like some drier, sunnier skies for the forthcoming half term week, then this may indeed be just what you want to hear. So, read on...

Monday 29th May to Sunday 4th June

“Cool start. Becoming warm, dry and sunny.â€

After a pretty wet and miserable start to the weekend (and a damp rugby union cup final!) things then turned much brighter leading towards a rather fine Bank Holiday being forecast. With a northerly wind, it may feel cool, and eastern areas are most likely to see showers - but further west, sunshine should be much more prevalent and a more gentle breeze here will also make it feel comparatively much milder than of late.

Slowly, through the week, high pressure will build across the UK from the Atlantic. This will bring much more settled and sunny conditions, and as the northerly breeze gets cut off later in the week, so the chilly feed of air will be replaced by a warmer and much more gentle breeze.

All in all, it's looking as though it will turn into a lovely week for sunshine, with the best of the sun in the west - but temperatures across the UK will climb, bringing a much warmer outlook.

Monday 5th to Sunday 11th June

“Dry in the west. Cool and showery in the east.â€

High pressure will still be sitting in the Atlantic, exerting the majority of its influence over the western half of the UK. As such, northern Ireland, western Scotland and western England should continue to see a good deal of warm sunshine, although overnight frosts may just nip the air at times. However, that northerly breeze will start to encroach back in off the North Sea, so things will change more markedly across the eastern side.

Here, by contrast, it will begin to turn cooler and more breezy, and also showers will start to crop up again more readily, and as a result the sunshine will be rather more limited - perhaps just to between showers.

Monday 12th to Sunday 25th June

“Showers or rain. Average temperatures.â€

By the end of the month, it seems that sunshine and showers will have comfortably set back in for many parts of the UK, although southern England is likely to see more prolonged spells of rain - it's still badly needed here.

With showers returning, and also with a cooler breeze, temperatures will drop across England and Wales, but they should still be within average values for June for Scotland and Northern Ireland.

Will it be rain stop play at this year's Wimbledon? More details next week...

Link http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ukweather/monthly_outlook.shtml

[Stuart]

Warm and sunny at first, with a wet spell to follow.

I was fortunate enough on the Bank Holiday weekend to attend the Rugby League Cup Final at Twickenham, where Sale demonstrated why they were top of the league this season with their firm trouncing of Leicester. It was a great game, highlighted by all of the league mascots in full costume having their own 'game' at half time - and made all the more admirable by almost managing to stay upright wearing clown boots on a sodden pitch.

Oh yes, it rained throughout the game, and was utterly miserable in terms of the weather, but what a contrast to the weekend just gone, when temperatures hit the mid twenties Celsius across Middle England with blazing sunshine for many throughout the weekend.

In fact, the last week has slowly and steadily warmed up and brightened up to boot, and now that high pressure has become established, it looks as though it may linger for a wee while. Of course, now that we're into June, the sun is approaching its strongest and the UV Index is high. Even if it doesn't feel especially warm (perhaps around the coasts where the sea breezes set in and bring a welcome cooling wind) it can readily burn unprotected skin, so please remember to protect yourself if you're planning to get out and enjoy the feel-good factor of the sunny days ahead.

This does, of course, rather give the game away for the short-term forecast, so without further ado, here you all are...

Monday 5th to Sunday 11th June

“Warm and sunny at first: more changeable later.”

After a hot and sunny weekend for many, and a few sharp downpours for a few, it looks as though the working week will start on a fairly settled note.

Showers could still be a factor between the sunshine on Monday, but on Tuesday, it appears that the high pressure firmly re-establishes itself bringing another sunny and very warm day across England and Wales, but perhaps a little cloudier for western Scotland and perhaps for Northern Ireland later in the day, with the odd spot of rain.

By Wednesday, the cloud will thicken further across Scotland, Northern Ireland and northern England bringing one or two light showers, but elsewhere, it's another sunny and warm day, perhaps unbroken sunshine for many parts of England and Wales.

Temperatures could creep into the high twenties Celsius in the sunshine inland, especially through the end of the week. The weather stays largely sunny with sea breezes around the coasts, although northern Scotland once again looks more cloudy with some rain.

By next weekend, things will start to change. Heavy and thundery showers will start to break the weather in extreme western areas late on Saturday, with those sharp downpours most likely across the west in general through Sunday. It will still be warm though, and also becoming rather humid, especially on Saturday night when it may be one of those 'kick the covers off' nights.

Monday 12th to Sunday 18th June

“Cooler with many areas turning wet.”

After a very dry week for many (in spite of the weekend downpours!), this coming week is looking rather more changeable. The week will start off with more of those heavy, thundery downpours, again mostly in the west, likely from the development of a 'Spanish Plume' weather synopsis. In the east on Monday, it is likely to be hot and sunny, with temperatures getting perhaps over 30 Celsius, and still being very humid here too.

More significant, persistent rain will materialise after this, with England, Wales and Northern Ireland nodding towards above average rainfall for the week. Temperatures will start to drop, and should end up being about right for June. It will feel cooler at times in the rain, and it will certainly feel comparitively chilly after having such a warm and sunny week previously.

All in all, a hot, humid and thundery start, then some rain, some sun, and turning rather cool.

Monday 19th June to Sunday 2nd July

“Slowly settling down again. Feeling warmer.”

For the second half of the month, it starts to settle down again. High pressure re-establishes itself and so the sun will come out again, although I don't think it will be as warm as the first week. There will still be some rain around, although this will ease off as the days progress.

So by the time this year's Wimbledon Tournament starts on the 26th June, there should be more sunshine and fewer showers, so perhaps the weather will play ball as well as the players! I'd still keep those court covers handy though, just to be on the safe side…

World Cup fever hits this weekend. I'll give you a preview of the weather in Germany as well as for those watching on our own shores.

From http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ukweather/monthly_outlook.shtml

[Stuart]

Thundery rain at first, becoming more settled in the South and temperatures rising again.

Wow, what a weekend. Scorching sunshine for many of us in the UK (as well as in Frankfurt for England's first game in the World Cup) and a naked bike ride in Brighton and London where lashings of factor 50 were no doubt in generous supply for the prevention of delicate areas burning!

The prospect of thundery showers did break things down a little by the end of the weekend, but the humidity is still lingering in the southeast of England - and will do for a few more days yet.

Hose pipe bans could be superseded by drought orders in the southeast if the mainly dry weather continues, so although the sunshine and heat have been lapped up by some, it has continued to bring only headaches for others. It goes without saying that, approaching mid June as we are, the sunshine is strong giving a high UV index so don't forget to slap on a high factor sunscreen on all your exposed areas if you're heading out to enjoy the sunshine.

The high pressure looks pretty settled across the continent for a little while at least, and so the next few days of the World Cup are looking rather hot and humid. This certainly isn't ideal for the players, and even spectators may find themselves wilting in the sunshine, so perhaps it's best to go easy on the beers whilst the days are still hot in Germany.

Monday 12th to Sunday 18th June

“Warm and sunny at first: more changeable later.”

After a hot and sunny weekend for many, the working week could bring the odd thunderstorm.

It's looking a lot fresher in the northwest for Scotland and Northern Ireland, as showers are forecast with sunny spells in between. Heavy showers and thunderstorms are most likely across southwest England and Wales on Monday, and perhaps for northern England too. The best of the sunshine will be across central and eastern England, but it will still be very humid and hot too with highs of 30 Celsius.

South- eastern England stays hot and humid for Tuesday and Wednesday too, although with sharp showers and a few thunderstorms. Temperatures will still be into the high twenties, but elsewhere it's a touch cooler, at 20 - 24 Celsius and certainly feeling fresher although hazy sunshine will make it feel very pleasant.

From Thursday onwards, the humidity on the southeast should finally fade away, although it will still be warm in the south with a good deal of hazy sunshine across the UK. Showers will make a comeback on Sunday, with some heavy downpours, mostly across southern Britain.

Monday 19th to Sunday 25th June

“Sunny in the South whilst turning cooler in the North.”

High pressure will start to build in again from the south, meaning lots more sunshine and temperatures creeping up again here, with most of the sunshine in the southwest. The northwest of the UK will be more changeable with showers or longer spells of rain, and turning rather windy at times too. It will feel cooler here too, although temperatures will still be about right for June, but it will still be a contrast to the very warm conditions developing again in the south.

Monday 26th June to Sunday 9th July

“Sunshine with a few scattered showers.”

Well now, Wimbledon AND Royal Ascot start this week, two events of course that benefit from sunny skies and a hint of warmth. It does look rather favourable for both venues at the time of writing, with a good deal of warm sunshine and just a few scattered showers for much of the UK. Northernmost areas will have rather more showers and will still be on the cool side too.

July 9th is World Cup final day in Berlin. Will we be watching our big screens in sunshine or showers, find out next week.

from http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ukweather/monthly_outlook.shtml

[Stuart]

Windy and unsettled for a time, becoming warm and sunny for many.

A welcome but short lived spell of rain in the south has been replaced with more warm, dry and sunny weather. In fact, other than a transient nod to a bit of wind and rain this week, it could well be dry again for much of the next month.

This will mean that with no significant rainfall to help replenish water reservoirs, the drought in the southeast looks set to stay for the summer - this link will help you to check your area across England and Wales: BBC News.

For Scotland and Northern Ireland, it has been a touch cooler with cloudy and some rain at times, but after a rather wet start to this week, it could well settle down for many here through the rest of the month, although the risk of showers will always be highest towards northern and western Scotland.

If you're struck by FIFA World Cup Fever, then this link will guide you to an interactive map - complete with local weather forecasts for the locations of the remaining games: World Cup Weather. After a really sultry week in Germany, things have cooled off nicely through the weekend, so the next England game at the very least should be a bit more like home for the booted warriors!

Monday 19th to Sunday 25th June

“More unsettled. Wet and windy midweek”

Through the weekend, although getting rather hot under the collar in southeast England, the temperatures cooled as cloud and rain spread in from the northwest across Scotland, Northern Ireland, northern England and parts of Wales too.

This trend has allowed the dominant high pressure to give way to low pressure - at least for a time. And so, the week will start on a rather changeable note.

For Monday, it's quite a cloudy picture just about everywhere although central and eastern England will see the best of any sunny spells, and it will still be very warm here, with a high of 24 or 25 Celsius possible again. It's looking cool and wet again across the northwest and getting rather breezy across the UK too - a sign of low pressure about to have its day.

For Tuesday, there will be a little rain but also a few sunny spells - but heavier rain and strong winds, even gales, are looking set to sweep across the UK with a rather deep area of low pressure between Tuesday night and Wednesday night, so it will be rather autumnal for a little while.

But, from Thursday onwards, although it will still be showery in the northwest, high pressure will start to build from the Azores once again, and things will settle down and start to warm up again in southern Britain mainly.

The showers will continue in the northwest on a brisk breeze over the weekend, but elsewhere it will be mostly dry with sunny spells as the temperatures here warm up further.

Monday 26th June to Sunday 2nd July

“Settling down. Warm and mostly sunny”

This week, if anything, the Summer High will extend over almost all of Britain, ensuring plenty of warm and dry weather with a good deal of sunshine. Needless to say, in the strong sunshine (no matter the temperatures!) UV damage is always a concern, so don't forget to prepare yourself if you're planning to be out or away during the sunny days. Once again, here's a link to the Sun index so that you can see how at risk you may be: The Sun Index. Temperatures will be on the up still, with some places getting rather hot. With all this settled weather around, hay fever sufferers (like myself!) will be feeling the effects once again, and you can check your daily pollen forecast here: The Pollen Index.

There will still be some rain or showers at times in the far north, but elsewhere, the most we can hope for to water the garden is a few showers sparked off by the daytime heat.

Monday 3rd to Sunday 16th July

“Sunny in the south, showery further north”

The high pressure looks weaker across northern Britain towards the end of the month, and so breezy, showery conditions will return here, and it will also cool off a little.

But elsewhere, it will stay very warm and mostly dry and sunny, with the sunniest weather towards the centre of the high - south Wales and the southwest of England will be the places to be if you want to stay in the sunshine.

There is still very little rain forecast for southern Britain. Will there be an end in sight to the drought?

Monthly forecasting

Forecasting the weather beyond about a week ahead stretches even the most experienced weather forecaster. Complex numerical weather forecast models from the Met Office and the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) are run many times for the month (and season) ahead to build up a picture of the likelihood of different weather types affecting the UK.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ukweather/monthly_outlook.shtml

[shuggee]

Monthly Summary

Fine weather is expected for many but it will soon become unsettled in the north with rain for all in mid-July.

We had two weather events of note last week. The first was the passage of an unusually deep area of low pressure (for June). This brought some very wet and windy weather to parts of Scotland on Wednesday. The winds gusted as high as 65mph in South Uist Range (Outer Hebrides). The winds did ease on Thursday but did make hat pins an essential item for Ladies' Day at Royal Ascot the following day.

The following night, many people were lucky enough to spot an impressive display of noctilucent cloud as far south as Oxford and London.

The weather remains ominously dry across southern England but maybe the onset of Wimbledon will see the arrival of some useful rain for gardeners if not tennis players in the coming days ahead.

Monday 26th June to Sunday 2nd July

“Feeling cooler. Rain in the south”

Areas of low pressure over the near continent will bring rain to southern counties of England and Wales at the start the week. It means a disappointing opening to Wimbledon with interruptions likely early on. It will steadily improve through the week. The good news is that there will be some much needed rain across the drought affected southeast and the rain could be heavy or thundery at times.

The cloud and the rain will make for a rather cool start to the week but it won't be long before temperatures recover in the south. By the end of the week, temperatures will again be reaching the low to mid-twenties everywhere.

Meanwhile, a ridge of high pressure to the north will bring fine weather to Scotland and Northern Ireland at first and these settled conditions will also stretch across the northern half of England and Wales before gradually moving south during the week.

As this brighter, sunnier weather moves south it will become rather cloudy in the northwest with the possibility of a little light rain. The rain will be most persistent across Northern Ireland and western Scotland.

Monday 3rd to Sunday 9th July

“Mostly fine and dry. Cooler in Scotland”

Pressure will remain generally high in the south and lower in the north. Scotland and Northern Ireland will be prone to showers or longer spells of rain. Pressure will remain generally high in the south and lower in the north. Scotland and Northern Ireland will be prone to showers or longer spells of rain.

Much of England and Wales will remain warm and dry but cooler, cloudier skies are expected to extend out of Scotland during the second half of the week. Southeastern England should remain fine and dry throughout.

Monday 10th to Sunday 23rd July

“Unsettled with rain in the north and south”

There are indications of a rather more unsettled period of weather across southern districts by the middle of July with further outbreaks of rain in the north.

There is the prospect of some useful rainfall in the south. Some areas could even see a spell of unusually wet weather, suggesting a possible easing of the drought conditions.

There's no Glastonbury Festival this year but will it be a mixture of mud and music at Guilfest or maybe the Cambridge Folk Festival?

From: http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ukweather/monthly_outlook.shtml

[Stuart]

Hot with thunderstorms, becoming cooler and fresher.

Phew - it seems as though one sweltering week has barely come to a close before another has set in! Temperatures have continued to climb through the last week, giving highs of 32 degrees over the weekend in increasing humidity, especially over the south and east of Britain.

Uncomfortable nights are not going to be behind us just yet, although the trend is for fresher weather to ultimately arrive. If you are wilting in the heat, you can always try these tips for staying cool until the heat breaks:

- Keep hydrated: drink plenty of cold, non-alcoholic fluids

- Wear breathable fabrics like cotton and keep clothing loose to allow air circulation

- Hats are very useful to fend off the sun's rays: wear one if you can

- Stay in the shade where possible, especially during the hottest hours between noon and 3pm

- Try not to over-exert yourself to avoid overheating

- If you have pets to exercise, try to do so in the early morning or late evening when it's cooler, and NEVER leave a pet in a car in this kind of heat, even with the windows open

- Keep sunscreen handy and apply regularly to prevent burning

Most of these are common sense, but should all help to make you a bit more comfortable until the heat eases. If you find sleeping at night virtually impossible just now, try opening the loft hatch (if you have one!) to allow the heat to rise and encourage cooler air from ground level to replace it. It really does work!

Monday 3rd to Sunday 9th July

“Still hot with thunderstorms. Becoming cooler for some.”

The cloudy skies in the northwest of Scotland over the weekend will linger in the northwest almost through the week, although as the days progress, it will be more sunshine and showers than unbroken cloud and drizzle.

Across the rest of the UK, the heat still abounds, mainly across the south and east, with temperatures still reaching the low thirties until midweek.

Although there will be a lot of hot and sunny weather, shower clouds and thunderstorms will still abound through the afternoons, although it looks as though these will be much fewer and further between across southern and eastern England until Wednesday/Thursday.

Towards the end of the week, the thundery weather will ease towards the North Sea, and should clear away by Friday. After that, it will be a few days of bright skies with sunshine and showers, with most of the sunshine again in the south and east.

Temperatures by this time should ease off a fair bit, but although it's looking about average in the northwest, elsewhere it will still be on the warm side - but by comparison it should feel cooler!

For the weekend, it's looking more unsettled, with more showers cropping up in the south and east, where of course the rain is still so badly needed.

Monday 10th to Sunday 16th July

“Warming up again in the south. Sunshine and showers.”

Another ridge of high pressure is expected to build again from the Azores, although not to the extent that we've seen recently. It will mean for southern Britain (and especially the southwest) a return to settled, dry and very warm conditions, and another brief hot spell in the southeast is a possibility.

For northern England northwards, the influence will be more from a southwesterly wind with low pressure passing to the north - and so although there will be pleasant enough sunny spells, there's likely to be a good scattering of showers too, mainly in the northwest.

Monday 17th to Sunday 30th July

“Unsettled and cooler. Best sunshine in southwest.”

Pressure should remain relatively high in the southwest, keeping the sunniest weather here towards the end of the month. Low pressure with spells of rain and increasing winds will push in from the northwest, and the southeast corner of England could also come in for some spells of cloud and rain from the nearby continent.

Temperatures, on the whole, should be back to normal, so it will feel much fresher than it does at the moment!

Cowes Week celebrates its 180th anniversary year and starts on 29th July. Will there be enough wind for the yachts or will still waters run deep? Find out more next week!

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ukweather/monthly_outlook.shtml

[Stuart]

Summer returns - getting hot again.

We had a good dollop of rain this week - whether from thunderstorms as the intense heat and humidity began to break down, or the depression that brought a spell of wet and windy weather across the UK over the weekend.

It's all much needed - reservoir levels are still really struggling, but once again, it appears to be a flash in the pan. Although the week to come starts off on an unsettled note, the trend is to see the Azores high build across the UK, bringing back the sunny weather and the temperatures are set to soar once again. Average temperatures for this time in July are around 16 to 19 Celsius across Scotland, Northern Ireland, west Wales and the northwest of England, and for the rest of England and Wales, afternoon maxima typically reach 20 to 23 Celsius.

As the temperatures rise once again, we could see highs of 30 Celsius again through the coming weekend, so although we have had a brief, cooler and wetter spell, it's all set to turn into summer once again - and I dare say, we'll be back to kicking off the duvet with some uncomfortably warm nights ahead too.

Monday 10th to Sunday 16th July

“Heavy showers at first slowly becoming dry everywhere; increasingly hot and humid ”

The week starts on a rather lively note. Plenty of heavy and thundery showers will cross the UK on Monday, mostly in western Scotland, but more downpours will start off in western England and Wales early in the day, moving to northeast and central England by the evening. The southeast corner will stay dry until well into the evening, and in fact could get rather sultry and very warm before the showers arrive.

But from Tuesday onwards, things start to settle down. The Azores High (which typically brings our summer season) starts to build, and so a ridge of this high pressure will begin to nose in from the southwest.

Although cloudier and at times wetter weather will still influence the skies across northern Britain until midweek, further south the high should have extended far enough to ensure dry and sunny weather here. This will then extend more and more across the UK, chasing the cloud and any rain in the north further away.

By the weekend, it will only be the far northwest of Scotland that will see any showers or rain - and even here, it's looking settled by Sunday. Otherwise, it's a sunny weekend in store with ever intensifying temperatures and humidity. I would expect to see the mercury hit 30 degrees at least by the end of the coming weekend.

Monday 17th to Sunday 23rd July

“Unsettled in the far northwest; hot and sunny for many”

The Azores high will stay with us and so, as it extends from the mid-Atlantic, it's the southwest of the UK that will see the most sunshine - although having said that, much of Britain will stay dry and very warm.

There is a risk of seeing thundery showers in the more intense heat in the far south, but the predominant weather will be dry if hazy here.

To the far northwest of the UK, furthest from the influence of the high pressure, it's more likely that sunny spells will be interspersed with showers through the week, so it's staying rather changeable here.

Temperatures will perhaps exceed the 30 Celsius-mark again, so potentially it's getting very hot, for some central areas especially. Night-time temperatures will also be high, so expect some uncomfortable sleeping ahead!

Coastal sea breezes will mean that temperatures here will be lower and it will at least feel much more refreshing - but of course, it doesn't mean that the sun is any less strong, so if you are heading to the seaside then be extra-vigilant with your sun protection (it's so easy to stay in the sun for longer when the breeze is cooling you down, and not realise that you already burning).

Monday 24th July to Sunday 6th August

“Staying very hot for some; thunderstorms likely in the south”

The overall weather pattern looks unlikely to change as we enter August, and so the hot and sunny weather is set to continue.

The northern half of the UK will be driest this time, as the risk of thunderstorms across thunderstorms in southern Britain increases. There will be some torrential downpours in local areas, and it will stay humid, in spite of this.

It does mean that for Cowes Regatta, starting on the 29th July, there is the chance of some heavy downpours, but being an island most of the thunderstorms will be across the mainland. Any showers could bring gusty winds though, which will have more of an effect on the racing than any rain.

How high will the temperatures go? More on the building heat next week!

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ukweather/monthly_outlook.shtml

[Stuart]

It is set to remain warm if not hot over the next few weeks. It will be largely dry and sunny but showers are likely in the south later.

There has been one subtle difference in our warm and sunny weather recently, and that is that it hasn't been anywhere near as humid as it was a few weeks ago.

This reduction in the humidity is due to air with a lower dew point temperature feeding across the UK. Dew point temperature being defined as the temperature to which the air would have to cool (at constant pressure and constant water vapour content) in order to reach saturation. Hence, the lower the dew point, the lower the moisture content of the air at a given temperature.

This lack of humidity gives a fresher feel to the weather. It even led to a frost on Thursday night in the Scottish Highlands with temperatures touching zero Celsius at Tulloch Bridge.

Monday 17th July to Sunday 23rd July

“A very hot start to the week”

With high pressure anchored across Scandinavia and the North Sea, we will continue to draw very warm but dry air in from the near continent. This particular set up means that we're unlikely to see any significant rainfall before Thursday at the earliest.

There will be some rain around but it will be very light and patchy and largely restricted to the northwest of Scotland. We will in fact start the week with the majority of any cloud across Scotland and Northern Ireland but there will be good, warm spells of sunshine. Meanwhile, England and Wales will continue to warm up with long spells of hot sunshine.

We will start to see a change in the weather around Wednesday with cloud spilling into eastern areas of Scotland and England pegging the temperatures back to the low 20's near the coast. Away from here temperatures are likely to reach 33 Celsius which is 91 Fahrenheit.

We should start to see a thundery breakdown in the weather by Thursday with heavy showers spreading in from the south.

Monday 31st July to Sunday 13th August

“Summer sunshine with some thundery showers”

There'll be more warm, summer weather to come but most of us can also expect some rain with the southeast of England likely to see further thundery showers. Overall rainfall totals are likely to be close to the seasonal norm.

Most places will have average amounts of sunshine. The longest spells of which will be across the west.

Monday 24th July to Sunday 13 th August

“Staying hot, more thundery showers”

High pressure looks likely to remain close by, so we can still expect a lot of dry weather. There'll always be the chance of thundery showers in southern parts of England and Wales. The northeast could also get a reasonable amount of rainfall.

Both temperatures and sunshine totals are likely to exceed average values.

It seems like ages since the World Cup finished. Don't worry, the new football season is no more than a month away, but will the weather be more suitable for cricket?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ukweather/monthly_outlook.shtml

[Stuart]

After a dry, hot and humid start, the weather does gradually look set to become cooler and wetter, especially towards the end of the period.

The main weather story over the past week is undoubtedly the record breaking heatwave. A number places exceeded the previous July record of 36 Celsius. The new record goes to Wisley (Surrey) where the temperature reached 36.5 Celsius (98 Fahrenheit).

The previous record of 36.0 at Epsom, dates back to the summer of 1911, which some believe to be the most perfect of the 20th Century.

It looks like we're going to have to wait until the middle of August when the much needed rain is expected across much of central and southeast England.

Monday 24th July to Sunday 30th July

“Plenty of sunshine with a risk of thundery showers.”

High pressure centred over the North Sea will keep it largely dry during the first half of the week. England and Wales will have the best of the sunshine with cloudier skies extending into Northern Ireland and the north of Scotland. There will also be some rain here at times.

In a reflection of last week's weather, we can expect temperatures to steadily rise everywhere. A level 2 heatwave warning is in force as the temperatures for midweek are forecast to be 34 Celsius (93 Fahrenheit) in the south. Highs in the north will be around 24 Celsius (75 Fahrenheit).

As those temperatures soar it is likely to become hot enough to set off some very heavy and thundery showers. The heaviest downpours will be across the south and east.

Towards the end of the week, the ridge of high pressure will drift away allowing Atlantic weather fronts to bring cooler weather with spells of rain in from the west.

Monday 31st July to Sunday 6th August

“Hot and sunny to start; chance of rain in the north”

Pressure is likely to remain a little low towards the northwest but should be relatively high elsewhere. This hints at spells of warm (or even hot), dry weather for a good part of the week.

Some rain will squeeze in from the Atlantic bringing above average fall to some central and northern areas. Meanwhile, humid, easterly winds could bring low cloud to parts of eastern England.

Monday 7th to Sunday 20th August

“Unsettled across the UK; turning wetter for most”

Indications are for a fairly "flabby" pressure pattern across the UK and as such we may well see an unsettled spell of weather developing across many areas.

I suspect that temperatures will fall close to, if not below the August average of 18C in the north and 21C in the south. Perhaps of greater significance is the possibility of above average rainfall in many places, and notably central and southeastern parts of England could benefit from quite a wet spell of weather.

Will the weather be typically tropical for this year's Notting Hill Carnival?!

link http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ukweather/monthly_outlook.shtml