BBC Weather Monthly Outlook...

[Stuart]

Monthly Outlook Summary

 

April Showers?....

 

In contrast to the wet weather of recent months, March turned out to be drier than average, and also slightly warmer and sunnier than would usually be expected. Last week we

 

experienced a fairly typical spell of spring weather across the UK, with some marked variation in conditions, both in terms of temperature and the overall feel of the weather.

The week began on a very cold and frosty note, with Redesdale Camp in northern England recording an overnight minimum of -6.8 Celsius, the lowest temperature registered in England for over a year. As the week progressed, a brisk and rather raw easterly wind developed, pegging temperatures a little below the average for March. Indeed, on Thursday, temperatures in eastern areas of the UK really struggled. Some of the showers that crossed the UK actually fell as snow to relatively low levels. Conversely though, there were also some very pleasant conditions to be had in the west at times.

As we moved into the weekend, just a subtle shift in wind direction by a few degrees to a southeasterly allowed much milder and drier air to be dragged in across the bulk of the

 

UK. Consequently we saw temperatures shoot up to 21 degrees across parts of southeast England on Saturday under hazy, sunny skies. That said, in keeping with the mixed theme, northeastern areas of the UK really struggled through the weekend as the warmer continental air was cooled significantly by the North Sea that is particularly cold this time of year. Skies across Northern Ireland were also rather cloudy through the weekend.

All in all, the very mixed weather picture that we saw last week is very typical of a British spring. It's therefore not that surprising that as we move into the first week of April, a similarly varied story emerges.

This weekend also brings something of a sporting spectacle, with both the Grand National and the Boat Race. Read on to find out the details, and the likely going for the runners, riders and rowers!!.........

 

Monday 31 March—Sunday 6 April April under starters orders...and they're off!!

 

March will end on a similar theme to the weekend, with the southeasterly winds continuing to bring a flow of warmer air across many central and southeastern parts. Northeastern areas will continue to fair rather poorly, with the breeze coming in off the cold North Sea, keeping plenty of cloud and some rather suppressed temperatures. A few heavy, thundery showers will affect southwest England, Wales, The Midlands and then later Northern Ireland and southwest Scotland.

April gets underway by Tuesday, and there will be very little change in the story, with three broad weather types continuing to affect the UK; the warmer and mainly dry conditions across southeastern and central parts, with some hazy sunshine, the mix of sunny spells and heavy showers for western areas, and the cooler, cloudier regime for northeast England and eastern Scotland.

Wednesday is likely to bring the warmest weather of the week to southeast England, where temperatures may peak at 21 or 22 Celsius in one or two places. On Thursday, the showery bands affecting western parts will become organised, bringing more prolonged spells of rain. Elsewhere conditions should stay mainly dry, but with the same large contrast in temperatures between the brighter south and the cloudier northeast. At this stage, it looks like Friday will bring a change in the weather, with a band of rain moving from west to east across the UK, with some drier, brighter conditions pushing into the west later.

The big sporting weekend should see a return to a more mobile southwesterly wind flow, which is likely to result in some bands of rain crossing the UK at times through the day, but with some brighter interludes in between. At the moment, it looks like the Grand National will see a mixture of sunny spells and showery bands of rain pushing through from the west. The best chance of any more prolonged dry weather may well be to the southeast later in the weekend, so conditions for the Boat Race on Sunday could turn out to be reasonably fair.

 

Monday 7 April—Sunday 13 April Nothing special.....

 

By the time the second week of April gets underway, the UK will be under the influence of a more west to southwesterly air stream. As such, we can expect weather systems to cross from the west at various times through the week, bringing some spells of wet and windy weather. The most unsettled weather does look as if it will be mainly confined to western and northwestern areas of the UK, but eastern regions may also see some wet and windy weather from time to time. The best of any drier and brighter weather looks likely to be across southern England, where the current forecast consensus suggests that a ridge of high pressure will develop. In terms of temperature, it seems most probable that daytime highs will be around the mid-April average, with the scope for a few chilly nights now and then.

 

Monday 14 April—Monday 28 April An uncertain end to the month!!

 

At this stage, there is a greater amount of uncertainty than usual about the longer term forecast moving into the closing stages of April. The various computer modelling techniques and systems that are employed to determine the longer term forecast don't show a great deal of consensus. However there is enough confidence to suggest that conditions are likley to stay on the unsettled side, with the wettest and windiest conditions affecting mainly western areas. There are also hints that there could be some slightly warmer than average interludes, particularly in the south.

 

Next week

 

May is on the way, will it bring us any warm weather?.....

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167#outlook

Edited March 31, 2014 by Stuart

[Summer Sun]

The met office update for the period of the 5th to 14th hinting that is may turn colder in the north

 

Later in the period is more uncertain, although indications are it could turn colder and windy with wintry showers in the north.

 

However the BBC update issued just a few hours before has no mention of this which I find odd considering its all done by staff at the met office

[Stuart]

Monthly Outlook Summary

 

A promising month ahead?

 

Last week the UK weather was largely dominated by the effects of a southeasterly continental flow of air. This resulted in relatively high temperatures for some parts of England and Wales and also unusually large amounts of Saharan dust to southern areas. Conversely, northeastern parts of the UK experienced a rather drab and cold week.

For much of last week, slow moving weather fronts and troughs plagued western areas of the UK. For northeast England, and eastern Scotland, the southeasterly breeze dragged a mass of cool and damp air in from the North Sea, limiting daytime maxima to just 6 or 7 degrees in a few places, giving a fairly dismal feel to the days. For the Midlands and southeastern areas of England, it was a completely different story, with the continual feed of warm and dry air from the continent allowing temperatures to frequently peak into the high teens. In fact, we had the warmest day of the year so far on Wednesday, with a maximum temperature of 21 Celsius recorded at Frittenden in Kent. Towards the end of the week and into the weekend, we saw the return of southwesterly winds and Atlantic weather systems, which brought wet and windy weather to many.

This week, wet and windy conditions will give way to a spell of quieter weather as high pressure builds in from the south by Tuesday. We should see a return of some chilly nights through the middle of the week with a patchy rural frost, but plenty of brightness by day. Through next weekend it's likely that conditions will turn unsettled again for a time, particularly in the north, but as we head further into April there are signs of some dry and mild weather setting in, at least in the south.

 

Read on to find out more...

 

Monday 7 April—Sunday 13 April Eventful at first, but soon calming down

 

The working week gets off to a chilly and bright start across the north of the UK, as the weekend's rain and cloud clears into the North Sea. However, rain and cloud already into the south, will spread broadly northeastwards to affect all parts of the UK at times. Conditions will also be breezy, with the scope for occasional gales along the south coast. Despite the generally wet and windy conditions though, temperatures could still peak at around 16 Celsius in any drier interludes across East Anglia and southeast England. Overnight into Tuesday, pressure will build from the southwest to bring generally drier and less warm conditions. A chilly night is also anticipated with a widespread ground frost and a patchy rural air frost, mainly across the north.

Through Tuesday and Wednesday high pressure looks set to dominate weather conditions across much of the UK, with a good deal of dry weather with some bright interludes by day and chilly nights. A band of rain will encroach into the northwest of the UK at times, with accompanying blustery winds. During Thursday and Friday, that rain threatening the northwest will slowly edge southeastwards, though some parts of southeast England should remain essentially dry. Heading into the weekend, it looks most likely at this stage that the dominant anti-cyclone will begin to retract southwestards, allowing a brisk northwesterly wind to develop that will allow weather systems to spill in across all parts. As a result, we can expect a fairly unsettled weekend, with some rain and showers around, always heaviest in the northwest. It will tend to feel fresher as well, which is probably good news for those running in this year's London Marathon.

 

Monday 14 April—Sunday 20 April A north/south divide?

 

After what is likely to be a fairly unsettled weekend, the most probable scenario for this period looks like another build in pressure across the southern half of the UK. At the time of writing, there was a slightly greater degree of uncertainty in the forecast detail for this period, but it does now look as though the southern half of the UK will again be influenced by high pressure, leading to a good deal of dry and bright weather, with temperatures climbing to above average values by day, but with the risk of some chilly nights. For the north, the focus is likely to be on Atlantic weather systems sweeping across from the west, bringing spells of wet and windier weather, although some drier and more settled intervals are also likely here too.

 

Monday 21 April—Sunday 4 May Some pleasant weather on the way for May?

 

Early indications suggest that as April gives way to May, the high pressure that is expected to affect southern areas will gradually assert itself over all parts of the UK. This scenario would suggest a good deal of dry, bright and generally pleasant weather for most areas by day, although some western parts of the UK will probably see some spells of rain now and then. With winds generally on the light side, overnight conditions are likely to be chilly from time to time, with the possibility of a rural frost in places. All in all, a pleasant start for May is the favoured forecast scenario at this stage.

Next week

 

As we head into May, is there any likelihood of some warm weather? Find out next week...

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167#outlook

Edited April 7, 2014 by Stuart

[Stuart]

Summary

 

A good month ahead?

 

After a wet start to last week, conditions calmed down considerably with an area of high pressure pushing in from the west. This week we have a ridge of high pressure persisting over the UK with plenty of brightness by day but a patchy rural grass frost by night. The question though, is how long will the high pressure last? Read on to find out more...

 

Monday 14 April—Sunday 20 April High pressure firmly in charge of the weather

 

High pressure has been flirting with the UK over the past few days, and it looks as though it will continue to dictate the weather this week. Monday and Tuesday's forecasts look promising for all with high pressure in charge; patchy cloud with plenty of clearer spells means some sunshine should be on the cards for everyone. Northern Scotland may see a couple of showers through Monday, but these should be light and few and far between with a dry day for almost all. With clear skies through the night, we keep the risk of a grass frost overnight. The high pressure slowly drifts eastwards through the middle part of the week, so although England and Wales should hold on to fine weather with sunny spells, cloudier conditions with outbreaks of rain will gradually be introduced to Scotland and Northern Ireland. By the start of the Bank holiday though, high pressure should have re-established itself over the UK. The weekend looks fairly cloudy but mostly dry; the greatest risk of rain will be in western areas with thicker cloud. Temperatures on the whole are expected to be slightly above the seasonal norm for all.

 

Monday 21 April—Sunday 27 April High pressure just holding on

 

Moving further ahead in the forecast it appears that the influence of high pressure over the UK will not relinquish. With the ridge sitting to the west of the UK a cool north-westerly airflow can be expected, therefore temperatures are expected to be on a downward trend, slightly below the seasonal norm. Scotland and Northern Ireland look likely to see the most rain with systems pushing down from the northwest; these should weaken as they head to the southeast, giving drier conditions for England and Wales.

 

Monday 28 April—Sunday 11 May High pressure finally easing away

 

As we move into May it looks like we are finally set to bid farewell to high pressure. The ridge looks to be replaced with areas of low pressure swinging in from the Atlantic bringing periods of rain for all. Temperatures remaining fairly cool; sitting just below the seasonal average.

 

Next week

 

Looking further into May - what will the forecast have for us?

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167#outlook

Edited April 14, 2014 by Stuart

[Stuart]

Monthly Outlook Summary

 

What will the next month have in store?

 

In the lead up to the Easter weekend high pressure looked to be well and truly in charge of the weather with bright and sunny conditions dominating much of the UK. But, in true British style this calm weather could not quite manage to stay all the way through the bank holiday and was nudged away slowly by an area of low pressure pushing up from the south through Easter day. However, the fortunes didn't turn for everyone, Scotland, Northern Ireland and Northern England have been bathed in some glorious sunshine over the bank holiday, temperatures peaking at 19C (66F) in North West Scotland on Easter Saturday. What has the weather got for us in the coming month? Read on to find out more...

 

Monday 21 April—Sunday 27 April Battleground

 

The weather next week looks to be a real mix as a battle between easterly and westerly winds sets up. Westerly winds chose low pressure as their weapon; areas will try and

push into the UK from the west and south west, especially later on in the week. Whereas, Easterly winds will be backed up by an area of high pressure sitting to the northeast of the UK. With the UK stuck in the battleground computer models are having real problems determining the winner. It looks currently like most of us will see a healthy mix of both; some sunny spells mixed equally with some showers. The far south and southwest is likely to see the most rain with the extreme north favouring best with plenty of sunnier spells.

 

Monday 28 April—Sunday 11 May What will May start like?

 

Although the battle doesn't look like it's going to be over as we head into May signs do point to the westerly winds taking the upper hand. Areas of low pressure should start to nudge further north with an easterly breeze bringing with them some longer spells of rain for England and Wales. Scotland and Northern Ireland should retain the lion's share of the brightness with the driest conditions. It could be fairly warm where the sun shines; through high pressure remaining to the northeast will keep an easterly breeze knocking temperatures down a couple of degrees by the coasts.

 

Monday 12 May—Sunday 25 May Hello westerly winds

 

As we look further ahead in the forecast we also may have to finally wave goodbye to the area of high pressure that has been flirting with the UK for some time. The weather looks unsettled as we move through May with areas of low pressure affecting the whole country at times. Cloudier skies for all would give temperatures below the seasonal norm and rainfall totals slightly above average.

 

Next week

 

As we move ahead to the forecast for June; what can we expect?

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167#outlook

Edited April 21, 2014 by Stuart

[Stuart]

Monthly Outlook Summary

 

Plenty of showers; well I suppose it is April!

 

In true April style this past week we have seen plenty of showers mixed equally with some sunny spells. Low pressure slowly crept in from the Atlantic towards the weekend and brought some more persistent rain for many, but there was still plenty of good weather to be found; most noticeably in northwest Scotland and Northern Ireland. With the start of May just around the corner will the April showers finally relinquish? Read on to find out more...

 

Monday 28 April—Sunday 4 May A new month...new weather?

 

This week looks like it is going to start with a good mix of weather. The wind will continue to blow in from the near continent keeping a stream of cloud, mist and sea fog into eastern and north-eastern coastal areas. This will pin temperatures back into single figures in some parts, but should slowly sink away to the south with an improvement from mid-week onwards. For the rest of us it looks as though the showery picture will persist, at least for the first half of the week, with plenty more thundery downpours and perhaps some localised surface water flooding.

Towards the latter stages of next week it looks like a change is on the cards with some unseasonably cold air pushing down from the north. With this cold weather comes also comes a shift to something a little drier. With fewer showers and pressure starting to build the threat changes to a couple of sharp grass frosts overnight into the weekend.

 

Monday 5 May—Sunday 11 May Is the colder weather set to stay?

 

Moving ahead in the forecast it does look like high pressure will stick near to the UK; most likely to the south west. However, low pressure will never be too far away, it looks like it will park itself over to the east of the UK. With this set up the best of the weather would be found in the southwest with the driest and brightest conditions. The northeast, being closest to the low pressure, is likely to see the wettest weather with both showers and longer spells of rain.

 

Monday 12 May—Sunday 25 May Battleground

 

As we venture further ahead into the forecast computer models are currently struggling to determine the winner between high pressure to the southwest and low pressure to the northeast. It looks currently like most of us will see a mix of both; some sunny spells mixed equally with some showers.

 

Next week

 

As the forecast stretches into meteorological summer, will the weather play ball?

 

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167#outlook

Edited April 28, 2014 by Stuart

[Stuart]

Summary

 

A changeable end to spring

 

April turned out to be the 5th consecutive month with above average temperatures across the United Kingdom. However, last week brought us a reminder that even though it's late spring, we can still see some chilly nights, as colder air flooded south late on and brought a widespread frost to much of the UK at the start the weekend. Temperatures recovered over the Bank Holiday weekend, but it will be turning increasingly unsettled as we go through this coming week, with low pressure dominant across the United Kingdom.

 

Monday 5 May—Sunday 11 May Rather unsettled, with some rain for all parts

 

Bank Holiday Monday promises many of us some decent weather, with some warm if rather hazy late spring sunshine across most of England, Wales and southern and eastern Scotland. However, the next change in our weather will already be affecting the rest of Scotland and Northern Ireland, where it will be cloudy with outbreaks of rain, and it will be rather windy here too, which will make it feel chilly. This rain will ease its way eastwards through Monday and into Tuesday, and this will then open the floodgates to the Atlantic as further areas of low pressure and their associated fronts move eastwards across the United Kingdom during the rest of the week.

There will be some brighter spells, with some showers, between the more persistent areas of rain, but temperatures this week won't be much to write home about, with highs generally being in the teens Celsius, which is around where they should be in early May.

Winds in the north will become light later this week, but the south will remain breezy if not windy throughout, with a risk of coastal gales at times, which will take the edge off the temperatures.

 

Monday 12 May—Sunday 18 May Changeable and feeling rather cool

 

The middle of May looks rather similar to the early part of the month. Low pressure will generally remain in charge of the weather, which means further spells of rain and wind; although some drier, brighter spells can be expected between the areas of rain. The best of any drier spells will probably be found towards the east.

Temperatures will generally be around average for the time of year, and in the sunshine it will feel quite warm, given the strength of the May sun, but conversely in the rain it will feel quite chilly. There is a hint that southern areas may start to become a little warmer though, as more of a southerly component to the wind develops. Frost is unlikely through this period.

 

Monday 19 May—Sunday 1 June Little change in the offing

 

As we reach the end of the Spring, we hope the weather will start to settle down and become more summer-like, but currently this doesn't look on the cards.

It looks like the theme from the first half of the month will continue right through till the end of the month, with low pressure continuing to hold sway over our weather. Having said that, there are likely to be periods of drier, brighter weather, so some sunshine can also be expected at times, and when winds are light it will feel pleasantly warm. The best of any drier, warmer weather is once again more likely in the east or south.

Next week

We are entering a period of rather unsettled weather, which may last for a few weeks, but will the new meteorological season bring about a change to something more settled, or

 

will it be more of the same?

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167#outlook

Edited May 5, 2014 by Stuart

[Stuart]

Monthly Outlook Summary

 

Coming month rides true to form

May, indeed spring, is not the month for those who like their weather to come in readily identifiable packages. The first week of the Easter holidays delivered a week of fine weather in some parts of the British Isles and the first Bank Holiday weekend of May was also a treat for many although less so for those who spent it in the west of Scotland. The season, however, is mainly associated with periods of rain, some sunshine, fleeting warmer days and the odd breezy interlude. Having identified all the key elements, and hopefully not in the style of Eric Morecambe, the following forecast should offer them up in the right order.

 

Monday 12 May—Sunday 18 May Showers relent as pressure builds

 

A weekend of heavy showers and in southern Britain, blustery winds, will have prepared many areas for the weather during the first part of the week. Whilst winds will ease as low pressure transitions from the southern North Sea to Denmark, sharp showers will still be the order of the day. The major conurbations of Scotland may well miss them as the breeze turns more northerly and it could be late in the day before the heaviest showers arrive in Northern Ireland. Across England and Wales, the prime focus will lie from the Solway to the Humber and onwards towards the Thames estuary. Others may also pop-up in the Midlands and across southern Wales. Temperatures will lie close to the seasonal norm although it may feel a little warmer away from the showers in the south as the winds ease.

Tuesday will be the last of the showery days, with the bulk of them across England and Wales. Through the afternoon, showers will become increasingly confined to eastern England as pressure builds from the west. Much of Scotland and Northern Ireland should enjoy a dry day with sunny spells. After a dry and coolish night, Wednesday will start fine and dry but increasing cloud will bring rain to Northern Ireland and northwest Scotland during the afternoon. Any showers over England will be found in the east and will be light. Wales and the west of England will be dry with some sunshine and should feel pleasantly warm.

Come Thursday, rain and fresh to strong, southwesterly winds will be confined to northern Scotland. All other areas will be dry with light winds and some sunny intervals. Temperatures should be on the up. By Friday, virtually all areas will be dry with light to moderate winds. Sunny periods in the southeast could push temperatures to approximately 22°C and it should feel warm just about everywhere.

 

Monday 19 May—Sunday 1 June High pressure gives ground and temperatures fall

 

Whilst high pressure may hold sway across southern Britain in the early part of the week, there is a good deal of agreement amongst forecast models that the high will drift into Europe, heralding a change to a more unsettled and cooler look to the weather across all parts of the British isles.

Temperatures will be below, if not well below average in some areas despite the presence of a fair amount of sunshine. Although detail looks difficult to pin down at the moment, it doesn't look as though it will be a particularly wet week.

Monday 26 May—Sunday 15 June Changeable theme as temperatures look to recover.

 

The period is currently offering no strong signal for any settled type of weather to prevail throughout the fortnight. Rainfall is likely to be more prevalent in western parts of the

 

British Isles with a consequent reduction in expected temperatures. Drier, eastern parts of Britain should see sunshine totals above the seasonal norm and this should also encourage temperatures to climb above par.

 

Next week

 

Check the prospects for early summer shows and sporting events.

 

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167#outlook

Edited May 12, 2014 by Stuart

[Stuart]

Monthly Outlook Summary

 

A mixed bag of weather on the cards.

Climatalogically, late spring and early summer are the driest parts of the year, and indeed, as I write this, the highest temperature of 2014 has just been recorded (so far), with many parts of the UK seeing plenty of sunshine this weekend. However, it hasn't been warm and sunny everywhere, with parts of Northern Ireland and western Scotland seeing a fair amount of rain. So there in lies the typical wide variety of weather that graces our shores at this time of year, and it looks like there is more of this to come over the next four weeks, but not necessarily in the same distribution as we have currently.

 

Monday 19 May—Sunday 25 May Warm and showery.

 

Central and eastern areas will see one more fine and very warm day with temperatures rising into the mid 20s Celsius, before conditions become more unsettled from Tuesday onwards. Then through the rest of the week, all parts of the United Kingdom will be prone to seeing showers or perhaps longer spells of rain, some of this heavy with a risk of thunder. But the good news is that won't be complete wash-out, as there will also be some warm sunshine on offer in between the showers. In the sunshine, it will tend to feel rather humid, particularly in the south and east.

Whilst there is high confidence in the transition to more unsettled weather through this week, forecast models are in disagreement as to exactly where will see the showers and when, so it may be a good idea to keep the umbrella to hand!

 

Monday 26 May—Sunday 1 June Unsettled, but somewhat uncertain.

 

The relatively unsettled conditions look to continue across all parts of the UK, although with continued uncertainties regarding the exact evolution of the weather. This means it will be difficult to pinpoint exactly what weather we see on any particular day for any given location, but it also means that most places can expect a mixture of some rain or showers, but also some drier, brighter spells. On the whole, daytime temperatures are expected to be close to the seasonal average in the west, but remaining on the warm side in the east.

 

Monday 2 June—Sunday 22 June Not quite flaming June...at least not yet.

 

There are currently no strong signals The rather changeable conditions look likely to persist into the first month of the meteorological summer, meaning most parts of the UK can expect a mixture of some sunshine interspersed with periods of rain or showers. The sun will however be reaching its highest point in the sky, so it will feel warm as soon as it brightens up. High levels of UV are also to be expected at this time of year.

Next week

Find out if the weather will play ball if you are planning on taking an early summer break close to home.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167#outlook

Edited May 19, 2014 by Stuart

[Stuart]

Monthly Outlook Summary

 

And they say variety is the spice of life...

 

Through the last week, almost every weather type has been thrown at us in the UK - warm sunshine, torrential rain, thunderstorms, fog, and even reports of a tornado! It's this variety in our weather that makes it so fascinating as well as keeping meteorologists on their toes and it looks as though the next few weeks could continue to be just as varied!

 

Monday 26 May—Sunday 1 June An unsettled start, but with gradual improvements.

After a showery day almost nationwide on Monday, our attention turns to the east and a developing area of rain which is set to make it quite a wet and cool few days for central and eastern areas of the UK in particular. With an easterly breeze blowing across the chilly North Sea, eastern coastal areas may feel particularly cool.

Further west through the midweek period, there is a greater chance of seeing some spells of warm late May sunshine but even here, it might be prudent to grab the umbrella if you head outdoors, as showers may not be too far away.

Towards the end of the week and into the weekend, it looks as though our weather will revert to coming in from the Atlantic, so a change in fortunes would seem plausible, with western areas prone to seeing more rain and perhaps more in the way of drier, brighter weather further east.

 

Monday 2 June—Sunday 8 June The Azores High is trying to push in

 

The mixed picture looks set to continue during this week, with low pressure likely to be loitering somewhere close to the north of the UK. At the same time, the Azores High, the famous bringer of fine, settled conditions during a UK summer is going to try and exert its influence across our shores, meaning the south or southwest of the UK stands the greatest chance of seeing the best of the weather. Temperatures look likely to remain close to or perhaps just a shade above the seasonal average.

 

Monday 9 June—Sunday 29 June A new season, but similar weather...

 

As we progress through June, the changeable theme to our weather is considered the most likely story, meaning a continuation of bright or sunny spells interspersed with showers or longer spells of rain, with temperatures generally close to the seasonal average. Towards the end of the month however, there are some hints beginning to emerge

 

from the computer models, that more settled conditions may start to take hold.

 

Next week

Will we see sunshine or showers for SW19 as Wimbledon gets underway?

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167#outlook

 

 

Edited May 26, 2014 by Stuart

[Stuart]

Monthly Outlook Summary

 

Meteorologically speaking - Summer has begun!

 

Not all the numbers have been crunched yet but the provisional statistics suggest that Spring 2014 will go down as the third warmest on records which date back to 1910. This continues a six month run of warmer than average weather for the UK.

 

Monday 2 June—Sunday 8 June Not exactly flaming June

 

After a pretty good first day of the month, things are set to become more changeable and unsettled with bouts of showers or longer spells of rain, but also some bright or sunny spells at times.Monday looks quite cloudy and damp as a ragged front edges east. Western parts should brighten up later on but with the risk of a sharp shower. Tuesday and Wednesday are showery days, some heavy showers midweek but some sunshine in between. Although the southeast of England and the northeast of Scotland may see some more persistent rain.

Thursday looks dry and bright for many but still the chance of a few light showers.To end the week, most central and eastern parts stay dry and bright but further west the winds will pick up as an Atlantic low brings the threat of rain.And the unsettled theme continues into the weekend with most of the rain in the west.Temperatures will drop off a little bit before recovering later in the week. Rainfall amounts are likely to be around average and we should see near normal amounts of sunshine.

 

Monday 9 June—Sunday 15 June Unsettled at first...

 

It looks unsettled early in the week with most of the rain falling in more western parts of the UK.Towards the middle and latter part of the week, the weather remains changeable but there is the suggestion that some longer dry spells will develop between weather systems.Temperatures should be around normal but it will feel quite warm in the dry and bright spells.

 

Monday 16 June—Sunday 29 June Pressure trying to rise

 

Low pressure will be the dominant force through the middle of the month and so the weather remains changeable.

There'll be a mix of showers or longer spells of rain and some drier, brighter or sunnier periods. Later in the month we may well see a welcome change. High pressure will be trying to exert its influence, so things may well settle down and we could get some much more settled conditions developing.Temperatures are likely to rise from near or below normal in the unsettled conditions to about average or warm during the more settled weather.Wimbledon starts in the last week of June - could it be a few days of sunshine and warmth to start the tournament?

 

Next week

 

Will the first week of July be sunny and warm?

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167#outlook

Edited June 2, 2014 by Stuart

[Stuart]

Monthly Outlook Summary

 

Little rain in the forecast  

 

Pressure is not only building in Brazil with the football World Cup now well underway it is also rising in the British Isles too. High pressure has dictated our weather for the past few days giving us the warmest day of the year so far with Writtle, Essex hitting 26.5 degrees Celsius on Monday 9th June. Looking ahead to next week it looks like high pressure is going to remain a key player in the weather with most seeing a very dry and settled week, though generally it will not be quite as warm.

Monday 16 June—Sunday 22 June Will the high pressure budge?  

The short answer is no. This coming week the ridge of high pressure will drift around the UK very slowly giving us all a benign week of weather. It looks unlikely that we'll be breaking any temperature records this week with often quite cloudy skies, but most places should feel pleasantly warm in sunnier spells with temperatures around or just above the seasonal norm. The best of the sunnier spells look like they will be over both northern and western regions. It should also be a mostly dry week; however there may be one two showers especially towards the latter stages of the week.

 

Monday 23 June—Sunday 29 June First week of Wimbledon  

As we go further into the forecast it doesn't look like the high pressure is set to go anywhere which bodes well for the start of Wimbledon. It should stay mostly dry but there will often be large amounts of cloud mixed with some sunnier spells. It should feel pleasantly warm in the sunshine, with the best of the cloud breaks over western fringes of the UK, though temperatures should quite widely be around or slightly above average for everyone.

 

Monday 30 June—Sunday 13 July High pressure starts to drift away  

 

The trend as we look further into the forecast is for more unsettled, cooler conditions gradually returning from the north. Within this set-up there may be some rain at times, especially in the north and west of the UK, and temperatures will likely ease back to the climatological norm.

 

Next week  

 

How long will this ridge of high pressure hang on?

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167#outlook

Edited June 16, 2014 by Stuart

[Stuart]

Monthly Outlook Summary

 

The sporting calendar hots up, will the weather?

June's weather so far has been pretty kind to us but surely that can't continue forever? Perhaps not for the end of June, but then it seems that our reasons to be cheerful may return in July.

 

Monday 23 June—Sunday 29 June Change is afoot...

So far June has been, on the whole, settled, warm and bright. By the end of this week signs are that we're heading for a change towards a spell of wetter weather, bringing mixed blessings. With June so far having been drier than average, the sowers and growers amongst us will be grateful for some rain. Those of us looking at the end of June as holiday time may be slightly less enthusiastic.

However, whether you want a wetter spell or whether you don't, the change is coming. As ever with the breakdown of high pressure, exact timings will be difficult to pin down but by the end of the week cooler, wetter conditions will be with us. So, we start the week dry, warm and, for many of us, sunny.

Wimbledon should get off to a good first few days with (fingers crossed!) plenty of play. And then by the end of the week, when Glastonbury starts, there might just be a bit of mud around for those who want that too.

 

Monday 30 June—Sunday 6 July Wet start but perhaps an improvement?

 

The hope for many will be that the unsettled weather is just a brief interlude as we move into July. Indeed, there does seem to be signs of some cheer, albeit not necessarily wall to wall sunshine. There's a signal for temperature to be around average or slightly warmer and in the southern half of the country, slightly drier than we would normally expect at this time of year too. Further north things look a little wetter and a little windier but still with some warmth around.

Tentative signs of things settling down in the south towards the end of the week could be good news for the start of the British GP weekend at Silverstone. Chris Froome et al might well find themselves cycling into ever improving weather as Le Tour kicks off in Yorkshire too.

 

Monday 7 July—Sunday 27 July More promising signs on the horizon

 

The smorgasbord of sport (or, given the Tour de France, should that be melange of meets?) continues as we head further into July. By mid-July we'll have the first Test with India already decided and the second getting underway. At the same time, the golfing fraternity will be turning their eyes towards Hoylake for the Open Golf Championship, not to mention those attending the summer festivals and the Commonwealth Games.

It's a long time away and a lot can change but as it looks at the moment, I think we can suggest reasons to be cheerful for all. Early indications lean towards a settling down of the weather with hints at some more prolonged, drier spells and a rise in temperature.

 

Next week

 

For those of us with outdoor plans for July it'll be fingers crossed that these encouraging early signs continue...

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167#outlook

Edited June 23, 2014 by Stuart

[Stuart]

Monthly Outlook Summary

 

A dry start to July, but will it last?

Last week brought a typically British blend of wide ranging weather conditions to our shores. The northwestern regions of the UK often saw cloudy and damp conditions, whereas much of southern, central and Eastern Britain had a good deal sunshine. That said, it wasn't all plain sailing for the south, with the onset of some hefty thundery showers towards the end if the week which brought some localised flooding, as well as some interruptions to Wimbledon and of course a mud bath at the Glastonbury Festival!

On the whole, early statistics suggest that June 2014 was yet another warmer than average month (the seventh month in succession where mean temperatures have been above average). In fact, it looks like this June was the 2nd warmest June on record for Scotland, with Northern Ireland, Wales and England having their 9th warmest average on record. There were some pretty chilly nights though, with overnight temperatures down to 2 or 3 degrees last week across parts of Scotland and eastern England.

So as we enter into July, what can we expect for the middle month of the meteorological summer? Well, at the time of writing, aside from a short spell of wet weather towards the end of this week, the current forecast is looking pretty promising. The week ahead looks fine and dry for a start, although things are likely to become a little wetter and cooler for a time from the northwest. Looking further ahead into the middle of July and beyond though, indications are that conditions will become settled again, with some promising weather, at least for a time.

Read on to find out the details...

 

Monday 30 June—Sunday 6 July Early July warmth on its way...for some!

 

After a rather chilly start, temperatures should recover relatively quickly in some good spells of Monday morning sunshine that are probable across most parts of the UK. Conditions should stay pretty dry through Monday with only very isolated and light showers anticipated, allowing for a generally pleasant day. There will however be the chance of some cloudier skies and a spell of rain for a time across the far southwest of England during Monday evening.

A similar day is expected on Tuesday as July gets underway with a good deal of dry and bright weather for most parts and temperatures recovering nicely after another rather chilly start. There will be an increased chance of a few heavy showers across southwestern parts of England and Wales, and across northeast England, particularly as the day

progresses.

 

Towards the middle of the week a low pressure system will start to edge into northwestern parts of the UK, with outbreaks of rain and strengthening winds. Further south though, many parts will again be dry and bright for much of Wednesday. Conditions will become rather warm across southeast England with the chance the temperatures could peak into the mid-twenties Celsius.

Through Thursday and Friday the rain across northwestern parts of the UK will begin to sink further towards central and southwestern parts of the UK bring a generally cooler feel, although it's quite likely that southeast England will hang on to the warm and dry conditions well into the weekend. It will also be quite blustery across the far northwest at times.

Heading into the weekend, damp conditions associated with the same low pressure system will likely affect most places at times with cooler air eventually affecting all parts.

 

Monday 7 July—Sunday 13 July Midsummer weather briefly takes a break

 

The outbreaks of rain and slightly cooler, breezier conditions that affected the UK through the previous weekend are likely to hang around during the early part of the first full week of July. Consequently temperatures will be a touch below average to start the week, particularly during the overnight periods, when conditions could be fairly chilly at times. As the week progresses though, it looks increasingly likely that pressure will start to build across the southwest of the UK, a process that will lead to a good deal of dry and bright weather for southern and central areas of the UK with a generally warmer and more summery feel again. That said, there are signs that further weather system will brush past the northwest of the UK at times, so conditions may well be slightly cooler with the risk of rain at times for northwestern parts.

 

Sunday 13 July—Sunday 27 July A mixed bag for the second half of July perhaps?

 

As we move into the second half of July, the computer models that we use to generate medium to long term weather forecasts are hinting that some areas of the UK, in particular the north, are likley to see spells of wet and windy weather on occasions. Further south and east, spells of drier and slightly warmer than average conditions are probable.

 

Next week

 

Next week it will be time for the first UK school holiday period weather forecast!

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167#outlook

Edited June 30, 2014 by Stuart

[Stuart]

Monthly Outlook Summary

 

In this month is St Swithin's Day...

Last month turned out to be the warmest June since 2006 for the UK as a whole. Some individual weather stations in Scotland and Northern Ireland had their warmest June on record, most notably Stornoway whose weather data records stretch back 140 years. The warm theme continued into the first few days of July, with Friday 4th turning out to be the UK's hottest day of the year so far. Writtle in Essex and Weybourne in Norfolk both reached 28.7 degrees Celsius.

Things turned cooler and more unsettled over the weekend however, with rain and showers cooling things off. This unsettled story continues through the first full week of July, but high pressure is not too far away and will try and make inroads - at least across more southern parts - at times later on this month.

 

Monday 7 July—Sunday 13 July Sunshine and showers at first, rain later

 

This week starts out with a fairly typical sunshine and showers set-up across the UK. Some of the showers could be heavy and slow-moving on Monday and Tuesday, with a risk of hail and thunder in the heaviest. In between the showers there will be spells of sunshine, helping temperatures reach their typical values for the time of year. By night, some prone rural spots will see temperatures drop to a little on the cool side.

On Wednesday a brief ridge of high pressure builds from the west, however it will be short-lived. A developing area of low pressure over central Europe looks set to spread a band of rain across the country from the east. Variability in the various computer models reduces the certainty in the timing of the arrival of this rain, but at present it looks as though eastern areas will be turning cloudier and cooler through the latter part of Wednesday as the northerly wind increases ahead of the rain. The rain itself will arrive during Thursday and gradually spread westwards before slowly dying out through western parts of the UK on Friday. It will feel rather cool in that rain with the wind not helping either, especially in eastern coastal districts.

 

Behind the rain as it clears westward brighter - and warmer - conditions could spread in for the weekend, but at the same time showers are expected to return too.

 

Monday 14 July—Sunday 20 July If it does rain, full forty days it will remain

 

Into the second half of July it looks as though there will be a transition towards a more climatologically typical pattern. During this week in particular, it looks as though pressure will tend to be higher across the south and east of the UK, and lower towards the north and west. This leads to the most unsettled conditions generally concentrating towards the northwestern corner of the UK, as any Atlantic low pressure systems pass close by. The best of the drier and brighter weather will be found further south and east. If this pattern persists, temperatures may become locally warm where the settled weather continues, especially so in the south and southeast as winds become more southerly.

Of course, the 15th of July is St Swithin's Day, so will we see this weather set-up continue through the rest of summer? It is only folklore of course, but the computer models aren't showing too many signs of a major shift in distribution of the high and low pressure centres around the UK. That's not to say that if you do see rain falling on 15th July that it will continue for the next 40 days and nights, our weather can be much more fickle than that!

 

Monday 21 July—Sunday 3 August School holidays set fair?

 

It does seem, at least at the moment, that there is a good chance that an area of high pressure will often be positioned to the southwest of the UK during the latter part of July and into the start of August. This, known as the Azores High, may expand across the UK at times to bring spells of fine weather and warm weather, most probably across the south. Some changeable and more unsettled spells are also possible, more likely in the north.

Next week

 

Will St Swithin's prediction hold as August gets properly underway?

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167#outlook

Edited July 7, 2014 by Stuart

[Stuart]

Monthly Outlook Summary

 

Summer heat - a flash in the pan?

 

It's been a curious start to July. Some places have avoided most of the showers and could do with some rain for the gardens whilst others have seen far too much of the wet stuff. The next few weeks look likely to offer plenty more variety across the UK.

 

Monday 14 July—Sunday 20 July 'Two fine days and a thunderstorm'

 

Although there's been plenty of warmth so far this summer, it's taken until this week for the mercury to threaten the 30 degree mark. Heat and humidity build from the south through the week - too hot for some of us from midweek onwards. Scattered thunderstorms will be triggered initially but as the week ends, low pressure and more thundery rain will sweep in from the west. This rain could well cause some significant disruption - watch out for Met Office warnings.

The weekend will see fresher southwesterly winds with further showers likely but also some sunshine in-between. Challenging conditions for The Open golfers.

 

Monday 21 July—Sunday 27 July Typical summer weather

 

It looks like we'll settle into a familiar weather pattern as we head towards the latter part of July. Low pressure will be closest to the northwest of the UK and this is where most of the showers will be. These could be quite blustery at times, so, as the Commonweath Games in Glasgow begin, expect some cool and showery weather at times.

Towards the southeast, furthest from the low pressure, there will be longer drier spells with some warmer weather too, but with winds still mostly arriving from a fresh southwesterly direction, not much in the way of excessive heat.

 

Monday 28 July—Sunday 10 August More of the same

 

With most children off school, it would be nice to have a clear indication of how August will shape-up. However, the computer models are not giving any strong signals at this stage. With this in mind, it is probably wisest to assume that the low pressure will continue to sit closest to the northwest of the UK, with higher pressure over the near-Continent. So expect some rain (especially towards the northwest) but also some sunshine.

There's always the chance of some plumes of hotter weather heading up from the south at times but they may well be short-lived.

 

Next week

 

As we move further into August, will we see the return of 30 Celsius?

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167#outlook

 

Edited July 14, 2014 by Stuart

[Stuart]

Monthly Outlook Summary

 

Phew, what a scorcher

 

Well it was for some parts of the UK. The temperature continued to build last week reaching a peak on Friday. Gravesend in Kent reached 32.3 Celsius, the warmest day of the year so far. Further north across the country, although warm, not the hot or very muggy conditions experienced in the south.

It was the hot and very humid weather which were the main ingredients in producing explosive bursts of energy resulting in the severe storms on Thursday night and over the weekend. The storms were caused by very warm air feeding up from Spain clashing with cooler air trying to make in-roads from the Atlantic. This set up is known as the Spanish Plume.

 

Monday 21 July—Sunday 27 July The heat is still on

Although not as hot as on Friday, still some very warm weather for the coming week and the very warm conditions extending up into Scotland and across Northern Ireland at times. This is good news for the opening ceremony and the start of the Commomwealth Games in Glasgow. Not everyone experiencing the very warm weather around the eastern coastal areas of Scotland and England will have onshore breezes bringing cooler conditions.Apart from temperatures, there will also be a lot of dry and settled weather during the week giving some respite from the severe thunderstorms. However the heat will build again as we go though the week and we could well see thundery showers developing towards the end of the week, especially over central and southern England. The storms will be much smaller, less intense features than we have seen recently.

 

Monday 28 July—Sunday 3 August All eyes on Glasgow

 

The Commonwealth games will be in full swing and with a lot of events outdoors then clearly weather will play a big part in the enjoyment for spectators and the performance of the athletes.High pressure looks like dominating the weather well into next week, centred across more northern parts of the UK. Dry and settled conditions with plenty of sunshine will be exptected for many places. There will be a chance of some showers feeding in from the Continent to more southern areas. We will see temperatures falling a little during the

 

week but still very much on the warm side for the start of August.

 

Monday 4 August—Sunday 24 August Football season kicks off. Will weather play ball?

No sooner has the dust settled on the World Cup and the time has come for the various league seasons to kick off.Well at this stage although signs of less settled weather beginning to edge in across the Country, still a lot of dry weather but an increasing risk of showers or some longer spells of rain as we head into the middle part of August, more especially over northern and western areas. The driest, brightest weather will be across southern and eastern areas but even here some showers developing. Temperatures still expected to remain a little above average for the first half of August..

 

Next week

 

Will the heatwave return?

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167#outlook

 

Edited July 21, 2014 by Stuart

[Stuart]

Monthly Outlook Summary

 

Respite from the heat and humidity?

 

The Commonwealth Games opened to high temperatures and strong sunshine, with a maximum temperature of 25C (77F) being recorded in Glasgow on the opening day.

Last week both Scotland and Northern Ireland recorded their highest temperature of the year so far. But the heat and humidity continued to produce thunderstorms and spectacular lightning. With heavy downpours in places and gusty winds reported, impacts included localised flooding whilst lightning caused disruption especially on some trainlines.

However slow changes in our weather pattern were taking place over the weekend.

 

Monday 28 July—Sunday 3 August Cooler with showers

 

Over recent weeks high pressure over Scandinavia has been responsible for keeping rain-bearing fronts out over the Atlantic and allowing the strong July sunshine a chance to really raise the temperatures.

This week the pattern is set to change with low pressure sitting to the northwest of the UK. We are expecting the majority of showers to be focused across the northwest where they could be heavy and thundery. Southern and eastern areas may see very few showers at the start of the week but the showers become more widespread by the weekend. The day by day detail in the forecast and positioning of showers will be crucial because we will still experience plenty of dry and sunny weather in between the showers, especially in the south and east.

It will stay warm in the southeast but elsewhere temperatures are forecast to be down on recent weeks although still close to, if not, above average at times. The good news is that we will finally lose the muggy nights and sleeping should be much easier!

 

Monday 4 August—Sunday 10 August More of the same

 

At the moment the week starts with low pressure still positioned to the north of the UK. The wettest of the weather is always more likely in the northwest and the southeast stands a better chance of staying dry and bright. Strong winds could also be a feature of the weather this week.

Even though the weather will have an unsettled feel there will still be dry days with sunshine and respectable temperatures. So maybe it's balloons in Bristol or comedy in Edinburgh for your holiday plans - don't despair not every day will bring rain!

By the end of this week there are signs that pressure may start to build and bring some more consistent dry and warm conditions to the south. Northern parts are more likely to keep a greater variety in the weather.

 

Sunday 10 August—Sunday 24 August Typical summer weather

 

The big question...will the more unsettled weather pattern at the start of August last or turn out to be a brief interlude in what has, so far, been a warm, sunny summer? Currently, the computer models that we use to generate medium to long term weather forecasts are producing a large variety of possible weather scenarios for the last 2 weeks of August. With that in mind, the most likely set up is for cloudy skies in the north and west with rain or showers at times. Further south and east, there is a better chance of drier, brighter and slightly warmer than average conditions.

 

Next week

 

Shorts or trousers for a new term in Scotland and Bank Holiday elsewhere?

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167#outlook

Edited July 28, 2014 by Stuart

[Stuart]

Summary

 

What a contrast for the Commonwealth Games!

After a very warm (25C) and sunny start to the Commonwealth Games in Glasgow, it was a thoroughly wet and miserable end on Sunday. Rain fell in torrents with thunder and lightning and temperatures of only 14C. Aircraft were diverted from Glasgow airport due to the adverse weather too.

 

July 2014 was warmer and sunnier than average but July 2013 was warmer. However it is now the 8th successive month where temperatures across the UK have been above

 

average.

 

Monday 4 August—Sunday 10 August Will an old tropical storm head our way?

Low pressure over the weekend brought a welcome end to the high humidity which was lingering in the south and east. It also brought to some of us, a watering for the gardens, in the form of torrential rain, thunder and lightning. But at the same time it brought some unusually windy weather to Irish Sea coasts.

As that same low pressure tracks northwards to start the new week, it allows the British weather to settle down for a brief time. Therefore many places will have a dry Monday with spells of warm sunshine, however there will still be a scattering of heavy showers. Hopefully the National Eisteddfod in Llanelli will escape the worst.

Tuesday and Wednesday however will bring an increasing amount of showers, initially to the western side of the UK but more widely by Wednesday. As we have seen with light winds there could be some torrential downpours.

Towards the end of the week, although there is still a great deal of uncertainty, it looks as if low pressure will bring heavy rain northeast across the UK, the rain will be accompanied by brisk winds again.

Eastern areas, probably eastern Scotland may see the best of the sunshine with the warmest weather once again likely in the southeast which has the potential to become quite humid again.

 

By the weekend there may be a brief respite from the wind and rain however from Sunday onwards the charts are diverging on the dominant weather pattern. All suggest unsettled weather for the UK to end the weekend and begin the new week, but to varying degrees. One scenario brings ex-Tropical Storm Bertha towards our shores, as an extra tropical system, but one that holds a potentially very wet and windy spell of weather, in tandem with high spring tides!! Please keep tuned to the forecasts for updates.

 

Sunday 10 August—Sunday 17 August A messy weather picture

 

Once any potentially wet and windy weather clears early week, the pressure pattern is expected to stay low. The lows are most likely to be positioned to the south or southwest of the UK. That would attract the most prolonged rain to these areas and the driest and brightest weather to the north of the UK. As is often the case in summer the rain could well be heavy and thundery.

By the second half of the week the weather may flip so that the wettest weather is likely in the north with the south seeing the lengthier sunny periods.

Whilst the week starts with temperatures about average, later the temperatures may creep above in the south.

At this stage despite low pressure dominating most of the UK will have some drier interludes.

 

Sunday 17 August—Sunday 31 August Typical summer weather

 

The big question for the latter part of August is whether high pressure and prolonged settled weather returns in time for the Bank Holiday.

As things stand, the weather type is likely to be dominated by a westerly flow. As such there will be some spells of fine and warm weather, if you want to get out and about. It just means that it won't be fine all the time with spells of showery or wetter weather thrown in too. On balance the northwest will see a greater amount of rain, while southern and eastern areas will see the most frequent and prolonged fine spells.

Some will be glad to hear there is also a trend towards warmer weather with temperatures easing above average.

 

Next week

 

Prospects for the return to school after the Bank Holiday

 

 

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167#outlook

Edited August 4, 2014 by Stuart

[Stuart]

Monthly Outlook Summary

 

Blustery showers follow ex-hurricane Bertha.

 

The relatively warm and largely dry weather many places experienced over the past few weeks came to an abrupt end last week, and has been followed by heavy rain and strong winds over the weekend, as the remnants of ex-hurricane Bertha spread across much of the UK.

 

Monday 11 August—Sunday 17 August Wind and rain easing but further blustery showers.

 

A deep area of low pressure that moved northeastwards across the UK during the weekend will be slow moving to the northeast of Scotland on Monday. Heavy rain will affect many parts of northern and eastern Scotland through the day, in combination with very strong, gusty winds across Scotland and northeast England. Elsewhere, Monday will be a quieter but windy day, with sunny spells and blustery, squally showers.

The middle part of the week will be dominated by a northwesterly airflow, bringing a fresher feel to the weather than of late, with a mix of sunny or bright spells and blustery showers. Temperatures near or a little below average.

By the end of the week, pressure is forecast to rise, bringing a quieter spell of weather. Winds will ease and most of the showers will fade. Some rain still possible, especially in the far northwest. Temperatures will recover to the low 20s in the southeast.

 

Sunday 17 August—Sunday 24 August Unsettled in the NW, brightest towards the SE.

 

The week will start off on a rather unsettled note, with many areas seeing showers or longer spells of rain. Also some drier and brighter weather, especially in the south. On the windy side at times, especially in the north, where there is a risk of gales.

During the middle part of the week, southern areas are likely to see more in the way of drier conditions with some sunshine. Meanwhile, further north and west, it is likely to remain fairly unsettled. Temperatures near average.

 

Sunday 24 August—Sunday 7 September Typical late summer weather?

 

The latest signals suggest that a broadly westerly weather pattern dominating throughout most of the period. Therefore, many areas will experience spells of fine and bright

 

weather, interspersed with more unsettled conditions bringing showery outbreaks and perhaps more prolonged spells of rain.

Generally speaking, northern and western parts are likely to see more instances of unsettled weather, whilst southern and eastern parts are likely to see the most frequent and prolonged fine and dry spells.

 

Daytime temperatures are likely to be warm during fine spells and near or below average during unsettled weather. Overnight temperatures will remain relatively mild.

 

Next week

Any sign of Autumn?

 

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167#outlook

Edited August 11, 2014 by Stuart

[Stuart]

Monthly Outlook Summary

 

Where has summer gone?

 

It's gone south, pushed away from our shores by a strong and cool northerly wind. That wind has dropped the temperatures and brought quite a lot of showers with it, some heavy and thundery. Looks like there's more of the same over the next week but it won't be raining all day everywhere and as the winds ease and given there will be some sunshine, it should still feel pleasant enough especially so in the south.

 

Monday 18 August—Sunday 24 August Generally unsettled and cooler than average

 

Temperatures and the general feel of the weather will be a talking point early in the week because it will be windy and cool with plenty of showers but also some drier, brighter spells. The brisk winds will gradually ease as the low pressure centre that's driving our weather eases away towards Scandinavia.

The distribution of the showers will change daily, eastern England will be a focal point on Monday and Wednesday, probably that bit drier on Tuesday.

By Thursday, some uncertainty creeps into the forecast as an area of more general rain spreads down from the north with showers following. The southeast will probably stay dry whilst on Friday it looks like showers could develop widely across the UK. Rainfall amounts are likely to be around average for most but in the north and east of the UK it will probably be quite wet.

Temperatures will be below or even well below normal especially in the north, accentuated by the winds early in the period. Nights will be relatively chilly with some rural spots dipping well into single figures.

As the bulk of the rain this week will be from showers there should be some sunshine around too, some western parts doing quite well with at least average amounts of sunshine.

 

The Bank Holiday weekend may well start on a mostly dry note but cloud and rain is gathering out west.

 

Monday 25 August—Sunday 31 August A change in the winds...

 

Not a change to a warm southerly and a return to summer but more of a westerly weather pattern is likely to develop. That will bring low pressure systems and their associated fronts from the Atlantic.

 

So, for the last week of the summer holidays the unsettled theme continues but at least we should see temperatures recovering to something closer to the norm for the time of year.

With Atlantic lows crossing the UK there's likely to be a lot of cloud and rain this week. Consequently, we aren't going to see a great deal of sunshine, and the rain could be quite heavy with above or well above average amounts expected. The south east probably seeing a bit less rain than elsewhere but confidence on this aspect is relatively low.

 

Monday 1 September—Sunday 14 September Pressure risng in the south?

 

Back to school and we keep the west or northwesterly winds so most of the rain this week will be in the north and west of the UK.

Nowhere is likely to see above normal rainfall amounts but it should be drier in the south and east. Pressure may well rise in the south, helping to keep things mostly dry with some sunshine at times. However, with the northwesterly winds we'll be dragging in some cooler air so temperatures will be a bit on the low side both by day and night.

The details at this range are difficult but we are fairly confident that the west or northwest winds will be with us.

 

Next week

 

September is a transitional month - which way will the last two weeks go?Could we see a return to something more summery?

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167#outlook

Edited August 18, 2014 by Stuart

[Stuart]

Monthly Outlook Summary

 

Better than August!

 

Summer 2014 had been warmer and drier than normal, until August came along. August 2014 was much cooler and wetter than normal. In fact it was the coolest August for over twenty years and also made the top twenty wettest Augusts on record. But with August behind us, we can now look forward to a September that promises to bring an improving weather picture for many.

 

Monday 1 September—Monday 8 September Mostly dry with some sunny spells

 

Pressure will build during the first week of September with the weather often dry. The amount of cloud however, will vary day to day. In any sunshine the weather will become locally warm for the time of year, with temperatures reaching the twenties, perhaps the mid-twenties given there will be some lengthy sunshine later in the week.

By Friday there is increased uncertainty in the forecast, with a chance of some rain in approachng the southwest. Otherwise the weather will stay settled.

Monday 8 September—Monday 15 September Warmth might hold on in the south

Changeable conditions are most likely into the following week, with variable amounts of cloud. There will be some bright or sunny spells, but also showers or rain at times, particularly over central and eastern parts. Temperatures ranging from near normal in the north to rather warm in the south.

 

Monday 15 September—Monday 22 September Typical September weather

 

During mid to late September most regions can expect to see periods of fine weather, with some warm sunshine at times. However, these fine periods may well be interspersed with occasional spells of cloudier, more unsettled conditions bringing showers or longer spells of rain.

Northern and western parts are probably most likely to see the more frequent bouts of unsettled weather, whilst southern and eastern parts should see the better fine and dry spells. Daytime temperatures are likely to be above average during fine weather which will leave conditions feeling pleasantly warm. Nights, however, may well be on the chilly side. During any unsettled weather, daytime temperatures are more likely to be near or below average leaving conditions feeling cool.

 

Next week

 

The weather at the end of the month is uncertain.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167#outlook

Edited September 1, 2014 by Stuart

[Stuart]

Monday 15 September Published at 10:00

 

Monthly Outlook Summary

 

Feeling more like summer!

 

September so far has been warm and dry, quite a contrast to August which was the coldest since 1993 and the wettest since 2004. That did skew our summer's statistics away from the overall warm and dry theme characterised by June and July, so some may think it quite considerate of September doing August's work. Meteorologically speaking however we're into autumn now and the nights are getting longer and cooler, as we saw last week; the warm afternoons have followed cool and at times misty mornings.

So where might this week take us? Well, perhaps even closer to summer than we've already been enjoying. The reason for the settled weather is a blocking anticyclone which has been sitting over the UK and keeping Atlantic weather fronts at bay. In the last few days it's slipped over to Scandinavia, but continues to dominate our weather and will introduce a continental southeasterly flow across the country. This means temperatures could rise by more than five degrees above average where the sun shines. As we're only

 

in September it's too early to call it an Indian one, but how long will this extension to summer last?

 

Monday 15 September—Sunday 21 September Temperatures on the rise

Despite this week's overall dry theme for the UK, rain greeted central and eastern parts on Monday morning. This will become increasingly confined to eastern Scotland through today. Otherwise it's mainly fine with sunny spells, but some showers will possible in central and eastern areas. For the rest of the week it will be dry with sunny spells for most, and thanks to that southeasterly flow it will become very warm by Thursday in parts of the south and west. Areas of cloud are expected to continue affecting northeastern parts of the country at times, with some occasional spots of rain or drizzle. There is a chance of some showers in the southwest at times, but these will be isolated, and the fine weather should persist through the weekend.

 

Monday 22 September—Sunday 28 September The anticyclone's dominance diminishes

 

Areas of high pressure are known for being stubborn and difficult to shift. Sometimes weather forecast models can be too quick to move on these blocking highs, so such situations can be characterised by noticeable disagreement between different computer models. The presence of a tropical weather system, Edouard, in the Atlantic this week is also likely to add uncertainty into next week's forecast, even though most weather models seem to suggest currently that it will remain in the Atlantic and be steered towards the Azores. All this considered it seems likely at the time of writing that the settled, anticyclonic weather will continue into the first part of next week. It may turn windy and more changeable in the northwest towards the end of next week, with an increasing risk of showers or spells of rain, but the southeast should mostly remain fine.

 

Monday 29 September—Sunday 12 October Change of month, change of weather?

 

It seems fairly common to be writing about a change in weather type as we approach a change in month, and it seems that this forecast will not present an exception to that rule. However, having noted above the tendency for weather models to trend towards a more Atlantic-influenced weather pattern rather more soon than a blocking area of high pressure would wish to allow, confidence is lower for such a change. Nevertheless, model consensus favours somewhat changeable conditions for the end of September and early October, with settled weather interspersed with occasional unsettled spells. The drier periods with some warm sunshine are expected to be most prolonged across the south and east, whilst outbreaks of rain may tend to be most frequent across the north and west. During the more settled conditions daytime temperatures are likely to be around and often above average, although chilly overnight with a risk of fog patches. During any unsettled spells daytime temperatures are likely to be below or close to average.

 

Next week

 

Will we see a genuine Indian summer?

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167#outlook

Edited September 15, 2014 by Stuart

[Stuart]

Monthly Outlook Summary

 

The driest start to September for 50 years

 

The first half of September has been unusually dry and mild across large swathes of the UK with provisional Met Office statistics suggesting temperatures have been well above average and rainfall amounts have been much below the seasonal norm. Figures up to 15th September show there has been a measly 6.7mm of rain across the UK; this is only 7% of the average 96mm. The question is though - will it continue? Read on to find out more...

 

Monday 22 September—Sunday 28 September The end to high pressure is in sight

 

This week finally sees the end of high pressure dominating the forecast, though, for the start of the coming week at least it is still providing us with some glorious sunshine. As we look through the forecast for this week the weather turns progressively more unsettled with areas of low pressure bringing spells of rain towards the UK from the Atlantic. This gradually sets up a northwest -southeast split; the best of the weather for England and Wales whilst Scotland and Northern Ireland should expect spells of rain and stronger winds.

 

Monday 29 September—Sunday 5 October No change in the weather patterns

 

In similarity to the rest of September it looks like the weather setup is not going to change significantly as we look ahead in the period. The northwest - southeast split is set to continue with the lion's share of the sunshine and driest conditions expected for southern England and Wales. For Northern England, Scotland and Northern Ireland spells of wind and rain could mean that October gets off to a much wetter start than September did!

 

Monday 6 October—Sunday 19 October Looking futher ahead

 

The split in conditions over the country is more likely than not to continue as we head into mid-October as well. In this situation day time temperatures are likely to be around average for the most part, however, in any sunnier spells especially in the south and east it should feel pleasantly warm. However, as is typical with October nights it will be feeling chilly overnight with some mist and fog patches.

 

Next week

 

Will September continue to be dry - find out more next week.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167#outlook

Edited September 22, 2014 by Stuart

[Stuart]

Monthly Outlook Summary

 

Change of month did bring a change in weather

 

September 2014 will go down as the driest September on record. Figures issued by the Met Office show it had broken records going all the way back to 1910. It was

 

not only the driest September on record but also the 4th warmest September on record.

The dry September followed a wet August. Bank holiday Monday at the end of August saw 38mm of rain in central London, with another 12mm on the Tuesday. This was close to the average rainfall for the whole of August.

By September, the low pressure moved away and high pressure became established across the British Isles bringing the dry and settled weather. It is unusual for an area of high pressure to last all month. Normally after about 10 days it will tend to weaken or move away and be replaced by weather fronts bringing outbreaks of rain. In September, as one high centre began to weaken, a new one would move in from the Atlantic and take its place and so prolonging the mostly dry weather until the end of the month.

So what does October have in store? Well the influence of the high pressure kept settled conditions for the first few days before finally moving off into the Continent. This has allowed an area of low pressure to steadily move in from the Atlantic bringing outbreaks of rain and much cooler temperatures.

 

Monday 6 October—Sunday 12 October What a difference a week makes in world of weather

 

In complete contrast to September and even the first few days of October, low pressure will dominate our weather in the coming week with showers or longer spells of rain and it will also be windy at times.

In fact a spell of wet and windy weather will continue to cross the country during Monday. This will be followed by brighter, less windy weather on Tuesday although heavy rain and gales will persist across the north of Scotland. Elsewhere, it will be a mixture of sunny spells and a scattering of sometimes heavy showers with temperatures close to normal for early October.

During Wednesday and Thursday, low pressure will remain close by. This will mean showers for parts of the of the UK, even merging at times to give some longer spells of rain. Southerly winds will strengthen again with gales developing over southern and western coastal areas. In contrast, northern Scotland will be drier, brighter and less windy.

The unsettled theme will continue on Friday and into the weekend with further showers, prolonged at times although the winds will ease down. Daytime temperatures rising a little above normal and nights will be mild.

 

Monday 13 October—Sunday 19 October Typically autumnal

 

The unsettled weather pattern will continue for much of the week. There will be blustery showers, most frequent and heaviest over western areas, and once again these could merge at times to give a longer spell of rain. The heaviest of the rain is likely to be across Northern Ireland and western Scotland. Temperatures will be very close to or even a little higher than normal for the middle of October. It will often be windy, especially in the north.

 

Monday 20 October—Sunday 2 November Halloween approaches. Will the weather be scary?

 

Still a changeable look to the weather with further bands of rain crossing the country, heavy at times in the north and west. Brief ridges of high pressure will bring drier interludes between the weather systems. However high pressure at this time of year brings its own set of problems. The light winds and clear skies at nights will lead to a touch of frost and also allow mist and fog patches to form. Daytime temperatures are expected to remain close to or a little above normal.

 

Next week

 

Will we see a change to colder weather?

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167#outlook

Edited October 6, 2014 by Stuart