466 replies to this topic

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

As this seems to be quite a popular thread, i'm going to pin it, so that we dont have numerous threads on the go.

We can then also keep an update/track of the latest forecast.

You can see the latest monthly outlook HERE

Released on Monday 07.11.05

Quote

The first week of November has seen the mild weather continuing across the country - but what does the month ahead have in store. Statistically November brings average daytime maxima of 10 or 11C (low 50's F) and overnight minima of 4 or 5C (around 40C) - although the higher ground of Scotland normally begins to see nightly frosts at this stage. Average rainfall totals for the month are around 80mm's and with the shortening days just 2 hours of sunshine is typical.

Here's how the forecast compares….

Monday 7th to Sunday 13th November

A lively week of weather is in store, low pressure will always be close by giving brisk winds and sweeping though spells of heavy rain. However, between the active weather fronts there will also be some drier and brighter periods.

Monday is set fair for the majority with plenty of autumn sunshine and despite a brisk wind it will still feel very mild. However, the southwesterly winds will feed in coastal showers to the west. The showers will be frequent for northwest Scotland and are likely to turn wintry over the hills.

Monday evening will introduce the first of this weeks spells of heavy rain from the Atlantic. It will spread across Northern Ireland, Scotland, northern England and Wales Monday night and then slide slowly southeastwards Tuesday. 20-30mm of rain will be typical for most, but this figure could double for high ground. The rain in likely to cause localised flooding and combined with strong to gale force winds travelling conditions will be poor. Despite all of this temperatures will hold up well but it will feel cool in the wind and rain.

Midweek brings a respite. A small ridge building in Wednesday will result in dry and bright conditions for most - but they will be short lived as another very active weather front is poised to move in during the evening. Wednesday night will be very wet and windy, with potentially a repeat of the previous front's rainfall totals and associated problems.

Thursday will see the rain easing but slow to clear from England and Wales. Scotland and Northern Ireland, in comparison, should have a largely dry and bright day. It will remain windy but feel mild, especially in the northern sunshine.

The end of the week promises to continue the wet and windy theme and little let up is forecast into the weekend!

Monday 14th to Sunday 20th November

After a very mobile start to the month, low pressure is still set to dominate this week but southern areas of the UK should become a little drier. Overall rainfall totals should be around average.

Thanks to the southerly or southwesterly winds around the low pressure temperature values look set to soar again. The majority of us will experience well above average figures. Not only are the days set to be very mild, but overnight frosts will be very elusive.

Monday 21st November to Sunday 4th December

The month looks set to end with a tussle between low pressure to the north of the UK and high pressure trying to push in to the south from Iberia.

The influence of the high pressure across southern England and south Wales is not only likely to be much more settled weather, but also a continuation of a feed of very warm air - expect above average temperatures for the southern half of the UK (both by day and night).

To the north the story is more unsettled, with wet and windy spells. Despite these, rainfall totals for the majority are still set to be no more than average. Eastern Scotland may be the exception with somewhat higher amounts

Courtesy of the BBC

Basically, compared to last weeks forecast, we see the possability of frosts disappear. Mild all the way into December by the looks of it.

[MAF]

yep, mild in the south, well what else have we come to expect. another mild month with no frosts is soooooo depressing. having not seen a frost here for what seems like years i wonder if we will ever get a cooler winter again!

Edited by sesnow1, 07 November 2005 - 10:44 .

[Michael Fishermans Friend]

I see the Beeb have back tracked on their previous forecast of November cooling down with some frosts becoming more prevelant and see the period right uptil early December being essentially mild and unsettled (unsetteld particularly in the north), a trend I feel will continue for some time.

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

The latest update from the BBC, on Monday 14th November:

Quote

Summary
A rather cold spell. Near average rainfall in the east, drier in the west. Showers in the east are likely to be wintry, with snow on high ground.

November is now well underway and to date has been mild - but will this trend continue on into winter? The Met Office longer term trend forecasts certainly contradict this, indicating a colder than average season. This is the forecast from a supercomputer - but even hundreds of years ago we may well have had similar predictions. Looking at weather lore for November I dug up one of the more famous weather sayings from this time of year, from Hollantide, an old reference to All Saints' Day, November 1st:
"If ducks do slide at Hollantide,
at Christmas Day they'll swim;
If ducks do swim at Hollantide,
at Christmas Day they'll slide."
This suggests mild weather in early November could well be followed by a big freeze at Christmas. So you may not have called upon the hat and gloves yet - but there is plenty of time and it may be soon rather than later!

Average conditions for November are daytime maxima of 10 or 11C (low 50's F) and overnight minima of 4 or 5C (around 40C) - although the higher ground of Scotland normally begins to see nightly frosts at this stage. Average rainfall totals for the month are around 80mm's and with the shortening days just 2 hours of sunshine is typical.

Here's how the forecast compares….


Monday 14th to Sunday 20th November

The new week will start fine for most. Monday will bring plenty of sunshine to England and Wales, but thanks to a low pressure area moving to the north Northern Ireland and Scotland will be stuck under greyer skies with rain sweeping into western Scotland through the day. It will also be very windy for the northern half of Britain, with a risk of gales.

Tuesday may well bring a shock to the system for many as northerly winds take hold and bring a blast of air from the Arctic. It will feel distinctly chilly, especially following our mild days of late, and this will only be exacerbated by a fairly cutting breeze. Early in the day a band of rain will slide south over England and Wales, leaving sunny spells in its wake. Scotland and Northern Ireland will start bright and fine but here showers will become widespread and turn increasingly wintry. There is a risk of significant snow over higher ground (mainly northern Scotland) but even at low levels by evening.

A frosty night will take us into Wednesday when the cold and showers will continue. The bulk of the showers are likely to affect exposed northern and eastern areas of the UK (once again with the possibility of significant snow on high ground). Sheltered parts of southern England and Wales should be largely spared and receive the best of the days sunshine. Temperatures will be below average for all and the northerly wind will continue to hammer this home.

The end of the week does show signs of things becoming quieter as high pressure builds in from the west and suppresses the showers. The wind will ease so it should also feel a little warmer despite temperature values remaining below average. High pressure at this time of year does though bring its own concerns of frosty nights and lingering fog patches - drivers beware.


Monday 21st to Sunday 27th November

Rather like the first week it looks like our weather pattern will be based around high pressure to the west and low pressure in the east - producing a cold northerly air-stream across the country..

We are all likely to see showers or longer spells of rain, perhaps even something more wintry for higher ground. The east is likely to bear the brunt of the weather with the heaviest rain and also strongest winds.

Temperatures will be below average, but it will feel colder still thanks to the stiff northerly wind.


Monday 28th November to Sunday 11th December

This period looks set to bring a return of a milder southwesterly influence to our weather.

However, the model's statistics conflict somewhat with its favoured pressure scenario. I.e. the model wants to feed low pressure areas across the country from the Atlantic but does not back this up with average rainfall totals which fit this picture, or indeed typical temperatures.

Overall most of us can expect around average rainfall but even with temperatures up on the previous week they may still be below average.

The monthly forecast, is courtesy of the BBC, and can be found HERE

A colder outlook by Everton (compared to last week), with a lot of uncertainty for the last two weeks.

[snowmadchrisuk]

majour contrast for him to say cold! he's normally mr mild! and if our models continue to not have a clue maybe we need new ones! u'd have thought someone higher up could have thought of that lol! super computers!!!! super crap where did they get them from delboy!

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

Tomorrows update will be interesting from Everton.

But have to say, hats off to him. The forecast for next week (so roughly speaking 1-2 weeks away from the original forecast), is looking quite good.

A pat on the back for Everton

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

Released on Monday 21st November

Quote

Summary

Last week began with temperatures still climbing into the mid to upper teens. Gravesend (Kent) had a high of 18 Celsius (64 Fahrenheit) on Tuesday. On the same day, Eskdalemuir Dumfries and Galloway) was the coldest place with a daytime maximum of 7 Celsius (45 Fahrenheit).

By the end of the week, many places were struggling to reach highs of 6 or 7 degrees. As is often the case at this time of year, it's either mild and wet or cold and sunny. There's certainly been no shortage of sunshine this month.

We may only be two thirds of the way through the month, but some areas have already exceeded their average November sunshine total, and there's more crisp sunshine to come.

Here's how the forecast compares….


Monday 21st to Sunday 27th November

Overnight fog and frost will remain a feature of our weather this week as will the cool, sunny days. There may well be a change around the middle of the week with a weak weather front moving south across Scotland and Northern Ireland. I suspect that there won't be much rain to speak of but there will be some, and as the winds increase, temperatures will tend to lift.

That patchy rain will continue moving south across England and Wales during the latter part of the week. As it does so, we may lose the sunshine, but we'll also lose the fog as those winds pick up.

Towards the weekend, strong northerly winds will bring snow to many areas of the UK. At this stage it is likely that the north and east of Scotland along with parts of eastern England will be worst affected.


Monday 28th November to 4th December

By the end of November, high pressure will still be holding on across the south of the UK, keeping it largely dry and settled. So we'll keep the cold, sunny days and frosty, foggy nights. The eastern side of England will also stay dry, but probably not with as much sunshine here. With more cloud, there is the threat of a little rain too, perhaps even a few wintry showers over the hills.

Elsewhere, as lower pressure feeds into the northern half of the UK, it is likely to become cloudier and windier. Given the amount of cloud, rain or even snow is likely to be more commonplace across parts of Scotland, although the wintry weather will mainly be over the hills.


Monday 5th to Sunday 18th December

By the end of the period, it looks likely that high pressure to the south of the UK will ease into the near continent. This will allow areas of low pressure to move across the UK, bringing unsettled but milder conditions in from the Atlantic.

There could be a fair amount of rain to the northwest, with the driest conditions across the southeast. As it turns milder, it'll also become a good deal cloudier

Courtesy of the BBC, which can be found HERE

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

Sorry peeps. Forgot to add this one.

Issued on Monday 28th November 2005:

Quote

A biting northerly wind and heavy snow brought a taste of winter across the UK to end the past week. Technically, it was still autumn (meteorologically speaking winter runs from December through February) but fortunately the cold and snow was forecast far enough in advance that the majority were well prepared. Thanks to this early cold snap however, many are asking how this bodes for the winter to come.

Average conditions for December are daytime maxima of 6 or 7C (low 40's F) and overnight minima of 3 or 4C (high 30's F). A nightly ground frost for all but coastal areas of the UK is common, with air frost for higher ground and sheltered spots.

Average rainfall totals for the month are around 70mm's (but some of this of course may fall as snow). This is the month that brings us the shortest days with just and hour of sunshine rationed for most of us.

Here's how the forecast compares….


Monday 28th November to Sunday 4th December

Northerly winds will still be the dominant influence on our weather at the start of this week. This means it will still feel rather cold on Monday, but as the wind will be lighter than over the weekend the overall effect should be somewhat milder. The northerly wind will continue to feed in plenty of showers across Scotland, but for Northern Ireland, England and Wales they should be mainly confined to the coasts. A wintry element is still likely at times in the showers across the hills of Scotland and for the northeast of England.

Late Monday a small ridge of high pressure will begin to build from the west, resulting in flattened winds, clear skies and a frosty night for most of us with some patchy mist and fog.

The ridge will bring sunshine to many parts of the UK on Tuesday but this will be short lived as a weather front looks keen to move into the west by the afternoon bringing rain to Northern Ireland and western Scotland (falling as snow here over the hills). The cloud and rain in the west will keep temperatures up overnight but eastern areas will be frosty under clear skies.

Wednesday then sees the front continuing its progress eastwards resulting in a grey day with patchy rain for much of the UK. It will be another slow day for temperatures but they should finally near average values.

Thursday finally brings some milder weather our way. An area of low pressure will feed some fairly persistent rain to the west and cloud elsewhere but it will also bring brisk southerly winds across the whole of the UK sending temperatures up into double figures.

The milder conditions then look set to continue into the weekend, along with the rather wet and blustery scenario.


Monday 5th to Sunday 11th December

This week looks set to be dominated by wet and windy days, although there should be some brief breaks from the onslaught of low pressure to give drier, brighter spells.

Rainfall and sunshine totals shouldn't deviate far from the norms. Temperature indicators however point to figures being below average overall. This will likely come from a combination of rather cool wet days and some dry frosty nights.


Monday 12th to Sunday 25th December

A very unsettled picture is forecast for this two week period. Low pressure areas will not be far away and there is the possibility of a couple of these being very deep centred, producing stormy conditions across the country with heavy rain, especially in the south. Dry and quiet times may be few and far between.

As a result of the mobile weather pattern, day time temperatures will generally be around average but overnight frosts seem less likely than normal. Sunshine totals are forecast to be average.

Overall, most of us can expect around average rainfall but even with temperatures up on the previous week they may still be below average.

Courtesy of the BBC, which can be found HERE

Just also looking back at the previous forecasts for last week

Forecast issued 07.11.05 - Not brilliant for last week
Forecast issued 14.11.05 - A good picture built for general scenario, really only slightly being wrong on the snow forecast
Forecast issued 21.11.05 - An improvement on the week before.

Overall, its quite impressive stuff there by the BBC. 2 weeks away, and the trend was spotted.

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

The Latest from the BBC:

Released on Monday 5th December

Quote

Summary

Showers soon dying out then mainly dry and rather cold. Becoming more unsettled with rain for most parts. Turning milder.


December has now arrived and unsurprisingly all eyes are now on the forecast for Christmas - will it or wont it be white? Despite the cold and snowfall of the past week, the month ahead actually looks like it may gradually bring relatively milder weather our way. If anything, the Christmas period may end up more of a washout that a white-out.
Average conditions for December are daytime maxima of 6 or 7C (low 40's F) and overnight minima of 3 or 4C (high 30's F). A nightly ground frost for all but coastal areas of the UK is common, with air frost for higher ground and sheltered spots.
Average rainfall totals for the month are around 70mm's (but some of this of course may fall as snow). This is the month that brings us the shortest days with just an hour of sunshine rationed for most of us.

Here's the detail for the month ahead….


Monday 5th December to Sunday 11th December

After a rather unsettled weekend with showers for most of us the low pressure area responsible will still be sitting fairly tight on Monday. This means another day of sunshine and showers. Eastern Scotland and western facing coasts are likely to have the worst of the rain.

The best chance of staying dry will be in western Scotland. Temperatures will be around the norm, but with a rather stiff breeze it will feel chilly at times.

The low will still cling on for Tuesday but its centre will shift slightly eastward. This will make eastern areas prone to cloud and frequent showers, whilst the west should have sunny spells and any showers should be well scattered and coastal.

Tuesday night finally sees the main body of the low shifting into the continent and moving us into something of a pressure pattern 'no mans land'. The pressure behind the low will gradually build (although not into any defined ridge) and this will lead to clearer skies and much lighter winds - perfect conditions for the formation of some patchy fog for Wednesday morning, and maybe even a touch of frost.

Generally, Wednesday looks set to be dry and fine with some sunny spells, but the fog could prove stubborn in places and this will hold temperatures back. Eastern Scotland and the east of coast of England may pick up showers at times and the wind will also strengthen here. The southwest also looks set to see some heavy rain shortly after dark as a small area of low pressure clips in here.

The small low in the south will then roll into the north of France through Thursday, continuing to throw showers across the Channel into the south coast of England. Elsewhere it looks like a fairly settled day but it could be rather cloudy in the east with the odd light shower. Temperatures should still be around average, but as an easterly wind begins to take hold it will feel cold.

The week will finish on this quiet note with Friday staying dry, fine and bright for most, but next weekend may bring something a little more unsettled to the west.


Monday 12th to Sunday 18th December

This week looks to bring a similar mix of weather the previous one. Weak ridging is forecast to build across the western half of the UK, whilst the east is influenced by cyclonic flow. Such a pressure set up means western areas will generally have below average rainfall, whilst figures in the east should be around the norm - although it looks like eastern Scotland may be in for a soaking.

The western half of the UK may also be rather colder than average - the ridging providing perfect conditions for frost and lingering fog.


Monday 19th December to Sunday 1st January

It looks like 2005 will end with a strong westerly or southwesterly flow influencing the weather - making for an unsettled but fairly mild story.

Rainfall amounts look to be at least average for all parts of the UK, as do sunshine totals and temperatures. Overnight temperatures may well stay above average though, thanks to the strength of the flow, so overnight frosts may be few and far between.

Overall, most of us can expect around average rainfall but even with temperatures up on the previous week they may still be below average

Courtesy of the BBC, which can be found HERE

Well the forecast for this week (released on 28.11.05) looks like being partly out on the temperatures at least. But overall, still not bad forecasting from the BBC.

The Christmas Forecast however, may put a few people on panic mode

[Andy Bown]

Now, the forecast above for this week is the same as the Countryfile forecast showed yesterday : that's good.

However, on BBC Breakfast this morning Helen Willetts suggested rain and milder again from Thursday. This was backed up by our local forecast with Tori Good where Friday's summary showed rain and 12c.

That's confusing . My only thought is that the LOW suggested as clipping the far SW before going into France (on Countryfile & Monthly forecast) is now thought to be affecting more than previously expected.

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

Latest BBC Monthly Outlook, released Monday 12th December:

Quote

Summary

Becoming more unsettled and generally mild.


I don't know about you, but this year seems to have flown by - especially the last month or so, and I can't believe that already we are counting down the last few shopping days to Christmas!

Of course, as I mentioned last week, as soon as December hit, the bets were out with (increasingly) low odds for a white Christmas - but now we're getting further into the month, it looks more and more likely to be mild and wet than cold and potentially white!

Even so, I will still be watching the forecast very closely in the coming fortnight just in case a slight variation in the forecast brings us a wintry interlude after all…

Certainly the weekend just gone has been on the mild side for most of us, with temperatures up towards the mid-teens (around the mid-to-high 50's Fahrenheit!) across the north of the UK, so it's not looking good so far for a dose of the white stuff - but let's take a look at the next few weeks in more detail and see how it's likely to pan out over the festive season.


Monday 12th to Sunday 18th December 2005

As the week starts, a cold weather front pushes southwards across the UK, clearing a lot of the previous weekend's cloud but also turning things rather chilly again - albeit not for long! More weather fronts appear on Tuesday, which will bring spells of rain for many, but also start to lift the temperatures to around average values by midweek. There will be a cool northerly wind, so that will temper the mild air a touch.

High pressure is never too far away from the west, and within this air mass the temperatures are relatively high, so it's most likely that the end of the week will see the coolest weather in the east, especially across East Anglia and the southeast. Showers will be scattered across the UK, but they will be lighter in the east, heavier in the west. The wind will be rather brisk at times, but that will help to keep fog at bay for many exposed areas.

The low will still cling on for Tuesday but its centre will shift slightly eastward. This will make eastern areas prone to cloud and frequent showers, whilst the west should have sunny spells and any showers should be well scattered and coastal.

The weekend itself will turn colder again, especially so on the Sunday, as low pressure becomes dominant and introduces a much chillier air mass. However, with more cloud around, overnight frosts shouldn't be as sharp. But with lighter winds, overnight fog will be more of a problem again, so Monday morning may well be a nasty drive into work. With low pressure being dominant by this time, it will be showery, with a northerly wind keeping them going around the windward coasts.


Monday 19th to Sunday 25th December 2005

In the run up to Christmas, high pressure will still be sitting to the west, and it looks as though that will stretch broadly across southern Britain to start with. It will be cool at times, although on the whole, temperatures will be around average through the week, and local frosts will be more of a feature again further south, especially in the southwest, where the skies remain clearer overnight. This area will also see the driest weather through the week, and the brightest days at first.

Towards the end of the week, the winds drop out, and so fog becomes more of a problem once again through the nights and mornings. It stays cool though, until the weekend.

Even though the wind will be coming in from a mainly westerly direction, it isn't the result of the usual southwesterly lows, and so conversely there will be more rain around the northwest corner of the UK and also the southeast of England.

It will get quite windy in the south by the end of the week, but the trend is also to see the temperatures rise - the westerly wind builds again, and so it's looking much milder on Christmas day itself.


Monday 26th December 2005 to Sunday 8th January 2006

For the slide into New Year's Eve (or Old Year's Night, whichever you call it!) and beyond, the pressure drops to the north of the UK, but it stays high from the south. The increasing contrast between these two areas will result in a rather lively westerly wind, and potentially some rather active weather too.

At this stage, it's hard to predict the exact detail, but it's looking unsettled with rather more rain than you might expect across the southeast.

Courtesy of the BBC, which can be found HERE

[MAF]

Quote

It will get quite windy in the south by the end of the week, but the trend is also to see the temperatures rise - the westerly wind builds again, and so it's looking much milder on Christmas day itself.

well that will hopefully be proved wrong. i remeber last years forecasts by everton fox and he was pretty accurate on the short term basis, but was not so good on the lrf

[Michael Fishermans Friend]

What a surprise that the Beeb is going for mild/milder conditions after the initial period that the models can be fairly accurate to, somebody should give them the wake up call that they have forecast a colder than average winter. Lets hope we don't get to much topplers over the next couple of weeks!

[shuggee]

I'm very encouraged by this. After what happened in November with this forecast at the beginning of that month:

Quote

The month looks set to end with a tussle between low pressure to the north of the UK and high pressure trying to push in to the south from Iberia.

To this - for the end of this month:

Quote

For the slide into New Year's Eve (or Old Year's Night, whichever you call it!) and beyond, the pressure drops to the north of the UK, but it stays high from the south. The increasing contrast between these two areas will result in a rather lively westerly wind, and potentially some rather active weather too.

So snow is certain!

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

The latest Monthly Outlook from the BBC, released on Monday 19th December:

Quote

Summary

Generally mild but unsettled in the north. Drier but colder for a time in the south and more especially across the southeast.


Next week's monthly outlook will be available 29th December

As we head towards the final week of the year, all eyes are now increasingly turning towards the possibility of a white Christmas. Hold all bets! At this moment in time it seems more likely that we'll actually have a green Christmas.

Many cities are having a particularly late leaf fall so whilst most of the trees have gone brown, some have still retained their green leaves. This could well be a result of what has been a relatively mild and sunny autumn. Temperatures in October were around 2.5 Celsius above the 30 year norm and November had around 50% more sunshine than usual.

The month ahead will have mild, wet and windy periods interspersed with some cold but settled spells.


Monday 19th to Sunday 25 December

Areas of low pressure will pass to the northwest of Britain this week bringing bands of rain and strong winds at times to those northwestern parts. Further south, high pressure will remain close by so any rain here will tend to be light and patchy.

Wednesday looks like the wettest day of the week with the heaviest rain moving across Scotland and Northern Ireland into northern areas of England and Wales.

Fog and frost will make an appearance this week. This will lead to some chilly spells, especially towards the southeast. The mildest weather is likely to be associated with the rain further north. Most of us can expect average amounts of sunshine with the sunniest skies across eastern Scotland and northeast England.

Temperatures are likely to be within the range 7 to 10 Celsius for much of the period with no indications of this changing by Christmas day. The festive weekend looks largely dry with sunny spells. Temperatures could be a little below average but any snow will be at a premium.


Monday 26th December to 1st January

High pressure centred over the near continent is expected to dominate our weather, setting up a cold but dry end to the year for much of England and Wales with a return to overnight fog and frost.

Meanwhile, southwesterly winds will bring milder, wetter conditions across Scotland and Northern Ireland.


Monday 2nd to Sunday 15th January

The new year looks set to see our area of high pressure gradually shrink away, allowing an increasingly unsettled southwesterly airflow across the UK.

With milder, moister air coming in from the Atlantic, the wettest but also the warmest weather is likely to be in the north and west. Totals could well exceed average values here. Sunshine amounts should be close to average everywhere.

Courtesy of the BBC, which can be found HERE

[shuggee]

Strange one this. The METO announce they are now only doing more frequent and more accurate 2 weekly updates - then the BBC produce another monthly outllook. Where would they get their data from? And if it's not judged to be not accurate enough to publish on the METO site - then why is it good enough for the BBC? Very odd.

[PersianPaladin]

Everton Fox, although obviously a highly knowledgable meteorologist - is a known mild ramper and that inevitably skews his results.

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

Well PP. If colder conditions were on the way, I would probably suggest that the monthly outlook wasnt created when these details were showing.
I dont think Everton will predict mild if it was showing cold, and will really just say what he sees

[Jackone]

It is interesting though, that a prediction for a Cold High Pressure is made after Christmas.