Winter Model Discussion 18Z 19/1/13 onwards.

[shaky]

Much better ecmef especially at 72 hours and 144 hours!!undercut at 144 hours or an attempt at an undercut'

[Tom D]

Although GEM has performed very well at handling this cold spell.

Have you any evidence to back up this claim?

[Continental Climate]

signs maybe of the azores high getting sucked northwards http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm1441.gif!!

*edit* Not a chance lol http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013012112/ECH1-168.GIF?21-0!! That is one mean vortex, hope it aint right!!!

Edited January 21, 2013 by Continental Climate

[Panayiotis]

signs maybe of the azores high getting sucked northwards http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm1441.gif!!

Nope! Very zonal like infact!

Edited January 21, 2013 by Panayiotis

[Blizzardof82]

Have you any evidence to back up this claim?

Not me personally no but after listening and watching a seasoned metorologist Simon Keeling, sorry for being off topic but wanted to respond.

[Panayiotis]

Not a very nice 192hrs from the ECM, as zonal as it gets im afraid, hope its just temporary as the energy weakens and heads NE, hope this is shown in the next frames.

[Jason T]

Interesting comment from Joe b.

Although seems to be covering all bases.

Joe laminate floori â€@BigJoelaminate floori

Hang in there UK and Europe. another week and this reverses enough so the worst is over.. even tho cold should return for a time in Feb

[Continental Climate]

*shudder* http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1921.gif!! Nothing more to be said really!!!!!

[shotski]

After viewing todays Runs and going through all the ensemble members I have come up with this

very basic anology.

Agreement This week well below average temps

Good trend Next week average temps with a more west to east flow (zonal)

Possible trend Start of feb, High pressure to the west or possibly northwest of the uk

Simples

[Snowman31]

Looking at the 192 hour chart from ECM can I ask how is it possible for the PV to be so dominant? I thought it was supposed to be dead and buried for quite some time.

[Continental Climate]

Lord!! http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2161.gif!!

[mulzy]

Truly dreadful ECM FI charts as far as cold is concerned - if they were to verify we could be looking at 2-3 weeks of mild/average weather. The Polar Vortex is truly immense at 192/216.

[Djdazzle]

Am quite interested as to how the SSW theories can explain how the PV can be so strong.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Yes a poor ECM but one small positive is that after a brief reformation the vortex looks like it's about to start breaking up again at 240. Day 10 ECM takes us out to 31st Jan. Remember it's 3-7th February timeframe we want to keep our eyes on.

[chris55]

http://meteocentre.c...map=eur〈=fr

If tonights GEM lands it would be a MAJOR coup-

It would turn a reasonable cold spell into a major one- although it does go against the ENTIRE ECM 00z suite-

& just for the stats out there-

UK snow Falling days for January AVERAGE-

http://www.metoffice...1961-1990_1.gif

4-6 for the south of England, 6-10 for the central belt...- 10 -14 for scotland-

Its a sad thing that we have become used to much lower totals in recent years.,...-

S

I'm sure 1963 skews those averages a little!!

In my lifetime, born 81, 4/6 days of falling snow in Jan is way to much, would be interesting to see the 81-2010 averages!!

Also remember that the 90s, and 00s were mostly pretty snowless, if we were to start a running average from say 2008, then I'm sure things would look way different, we do seem to have entered a snowier cycle of winters in the last 5 years, and who knows what the next 24 years will bring.

[allenar]

I'm amazed how a breakdown in fi is now certain.... Things can and will change.

[Snowman.]

Isn't a bad run I suppose as its only a few days you can clearly see towards the end of the run Heights are building northwards, meteociel isn't the best at seeing this but still visible transition from purples to blues with the Main chunk of the PV in the NE. Just ride out the storm and see what follows!

[chris55]

Lol, crazy ensemble in this run

Spot the outlier lol!!!!!

[TEITS]

This ECM run is enough to give you nightmares and probably night terrors to GP & CH!

Im getting a sense of deja vu at the moment from recent years and I hope this doesn't become true. What I mean by this is I recall last year I think, might be 2011, when we we're supposed to see epic blocking and quiet the reverse happened.

GEFS ensembles aren't really screaming a GH at the moment and the mean has actually dropped today.

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/ensimages/ens.20130121/12/prmslReyjavic.png

I know GP said early Feb and that we might even see a cold spell develop as early as the 28th Jan. However at this stage this is looking incredibly unlikely especially starting at the 28th Jan. At the moment a long fetch of SW,lys is looking the likely outlook for the end of Jan.

[Snowman.]

Am quite interested as to how the SSW theories can explain how the PV can be so strong.

SSW has already effected us if anything into Feb we should see it reform but in the wrong place which is swell!

Honestly why are people moaning when half the UK is under snow cover is oblivious to me!

[Summer Sun]

The GFS ensembles certainly look milder than of late into next week apart from one very short lived drop on the 28th

[UV-RAY]

This ECM run is enough to give you nightmares and probably night terrors to GP & CH!

Im getting a sense of deja vu at the moment from recent years and I hope this doesn't become true. What I mean by this is I recall last year I think, might be 2011, when we we're supposed to see epic blocking and quiet the reverse happened.

GEFS ensembles aren't really screaming a GH at the moment and the mean has actually dropped today.

http://cdn.nwstatic....mslReyjavic.png

I know GP said early Feb and that we might even see a cold spell develop as early as the 28th Jan. However at this stage this is looking incredibly unlikely especially starting at the 28th Jan. At the moment a long fetch of SW,lys is looking the likely outlook for the end of Jan.

I would say they look likely going well into February going off the charts tonight.

[stratty]

This ECM run is enough to give you nightmares and probably night terrors to GP & CH!

Im getting a sense of deja vu at the moment from recent years and I hope this doesn't become true. What I mean by this is I recall last year I think, might be 2011, when we we're supposed to see epic blocking and quiet the reverse happened.

GEFS ensembles aren't really screaming a GH at the moment and the mean has actually dropped today.

http://cdn.nwstatic....mslReyjavic.png

I know GP said early Feb and that we might even see a cold spell develop as early as the 28th Jan. However at this stage this is looking incredibly unlikely especially starting at the 28th Jan. At the moment a long fetch of SW,lys is looking the likely outlook for the end of Jan.

Much like what it showed at the start of this year..............now look outside!

[weather_it_will]

I know GP said early Feb and that we might even see a cold spell develop as early as the 28th Jan. However at this stage this is looking incredibly unlikely especially starting at the 28th Jan. At the moment a long fetch of SW,lys is looking the likely outlook for the end of Jan.

GP also said.......

So teleconnectively we have a reasoned case for anomalous heights to our north end January into February. The timing of this highly problematic as the models were to a degree blind-sided by the first downwelling wave, only latching onto it 2 days before the warming took place. Were this happen again, a sudden turnaround in modelling could well occur.

Don't expect the models to show the next cold spell until the last minute!

[london-snow]

This ECM run is enough to give you nightmares and probably night terrors to GP & CH!

Im getting a sense of deja vu at the moment from recent years and I hope this doesn't become true. What I mean by this is I recall last year I think, might be 2011, when we we're supposed to see epic blocking and quiet the reverse happened.

GEFS ensembles aren't really screaming a GH at the moment and the mean has actually dropped today.

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/ensimages/ens.20130121/12/prmslReyjavic.png

I know GP said early Feb and that we might even see a cold spell develop as early as the 28th Jan. However at this stage this is looking incredibly unlikely especially starting at the 28th Jan. At the moment a long fetch of SW,lys is looking the likely outlook for the end of Jan.

I disagree you seem to be looking at a glass empty and not half full.

There have been a few signs that after a breif reforming of the pv it looks to break up as we head into feb. ECM shows this to a extent in the later frames and a few previous op runs have been toying with the idea.

The suposed ssw that GP hints at has happened a few weeks back i believe but is yet to filter which could take up to a month which ties in with early Feb.

I expect a lot of stella fi to start in a day or two as the effects of the ssw start to filter into the op runs such like P10 on the gfs earlier on.

Fun times ahead i feel.