Winter Model Discussion - Cold Hunting -12Z 30/12/12

[Robbie Garrett]

I'll join you, let's just sit back and relax Winter is over at the following times. Tuesday March 19th 2013.

I agree with the optimism.This chart looks familiar to this week yet look at the date!....the coldest February on record....let's open a bottle of wine and lets see how the uncertainty after T168 evolves.I'm certainly not giving up on cold yet.

[Weathizard]

When people are making all these statements about the models and how poor they are, people always say, it complex situation look at the ENS rather than the OPs, and look at the ens, I think they are pretty decent from 11th- onward even my location has a MEAN of -2/3 until the end of the run with several very cold runs including the control.

Yes right now the OPs are not great but looking deeper at the output I really don't think its as bad as some make out. Saying that can I just reiterate what Ian Fergusson has said with regards to the models finding it difficult during pattern changes, this from someone at the met office.

I have the ENS from the 12z on Sunday stored on my phone and I'll post them up later just to show how much the picture even since then has improved.

Edited January 2, 2013 by Weathizard

[Bristawl Si]

I agree with the optimism.This chart looks familiar to this week yet look at the date!....the coldest February on record....let's open a bottle of wine and lets see how the uncertainty after T168 evolves.I'm certainly not giving up on cold yet.

Here we go again - when deep in the mire drag out the 1947 charts! LOL!

[Timmytour]

eermmmm I think I might have been the one to mention Scrooge!!!

But it was not at all about Steve M's attitude in posting but a genuine thought that the chart he included in a post actually looked like it showed the image of Scrooge!!

I don't know why, but I'm very confident of cold weather coming just after the weekend following this spring-like weekend coming. It's a strange feeling, a bit like the strange reserved feeling I had after "that ECM"... but as JH as mentioned, 1947 has shown things can flip from one extreme to the other. I don't say a repeat of 1947 is on the cards, but some of the model output looks a lot like it was in the middle part of that month before the big change.

So I hope Steve M, who is like a hero to me, is soon back on this thread with full optimism. (by the way...can I just add that my part of Herts has had two mornings of lying snow this winter...better already than some winters I've known! )

The models have already shown us this winter they can turn great expectation into huge disappointment. I genuinely think now they are on the brink of showing it the other way around as suddenly little bits and pieces crop up here and there which will grow into something tremendous

Here's hoping

[ITSY]

Blimey Steve M throws in the towel.

Surely Steve that' most accurate piece of info that we have' is about as likely to verify as that other 'most accurate piece of info we had' showing 60mph easterlies for Dec15th.

There has already been lowland snow this winter just maybe not in your back yard.

Winter is never over by January 2nd or the 15th for that matter. 1947, 1953.1954 1955 1956, 1960, 1969 1978 1986 1991 AND 1996 all gave late winter (POST 15TH jAN) spells in various parts of he UK that most people would happily settle for this winter.

Not to mention Feb 2009 which remains the snowiest spell I have experienced. I would agree with SM though that if the SSW doesn't impact our weather, I struggle to see where cold will come from

[IDO]

When people are making all these statements about the models and how poor they are, people always say, it complex situation look at the ENS rather than the OPs, and look at the ens, I think they are pretty decent from 11th- onward even my location has a MEAN of -2/3 until the end of the run with several very cold runs includeing the control.

Yes right now the OPs are not great but looking deeper at the output I really don't think its as bad as some make out. Saying that can I just reiterate what Ian Fergusson has said with regards to the models finding it difficult during pattern changes, this from someone at the met office.

I have the ENS from the 12z on Sunday stored on my phone and I'll post them up later just to show how much the picture even since then has improved.

Looking at the clusters for the individual ensembles runs, very little promise there:

Courtesy of: http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/

Edited January 2, 2013 by i'm dreaming of...

[UV-RAY]

When people are making all these statements about the models and how poor they are, people always say, it complex situation look at the ENS rather than the OPs, and look at the ens, I think they are pretty decent from 11th- onward even my location has a MEAN of -2/3 until the end of the run with several very cold runs includeing the control.

Yes right now the OPs are not great but looking deeper at the output I really don't think its as bad as some make out. Saying that can I just reiterate what Ian Fergusson has said with regards to the models finding it difficult during pattern changes, this from someone at the met office.

I have the ENS from the 12z on Sunday stored on my phone and I'll post them up later just to show how much the picture even since then has improved.

I think they are bad, but I'm optimistic changes are afoot, but still maintain that we will be looking at the last week of this month before we benefit from any SSW. I hope I'm wrong though and we start to see cold developing much earlier, I'm fed up of grey laden skies. Edited January 2, 2013 by Sceptical Inquirer

[SMU]

Blimey Steve M throws in the towel.

Surely Steve that' most accurate piece of info that we have' is about as likely to verify as that other 'most accurate piece of info we had' showing 60mph easterlies for Dec15th.

There has already been lowland snow this winter just maybe not in your back yard.

Winter is never over by January 2nd or the 15th for that matter. 1947, 1953.1954 1955 1956, 1960, 1969 1978 1986 1991 AND 1996 all gave late winter (POST 15TH jAN) spells in various parts of he UK that most people would happily settle for this winter.

Interesting MCweather thats 11 winters from 65 years... 1 in 6 chance then

Im not moaning-

Theres cause for optimism, just not BLIND optimsm out some awful charts-

Also at 240 yes the ECM is seeing some slowing,but thats like saying to Lewis Hamilton after hes crashed- BTW jenson is Winning-

Its bad- just not quite as bad- however that doesnt equate to good.

Like most here I want the snow- however sadly at the moment we are stuck in a rut & the NH pattern in the background doesnt look like changing-

for those commenting on ridging to greenland- thats a ridge.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/1947/archivesnh-1947-1-20-0-0.png

Have a good night.

S

Edited January 2, 2013 by Steve Murr

[nick sussex]

Nick as someone has posted earlier today ECMWF at 6 days is well ahead at the moment of GFS and I cannot see how at 10 days it can have sliiped so much (if we had the data) that it will be worse than GFS.

I honestly cannot see why its ouput at 12z is looked upon as being 'wrong'. I am now going to go to Wx Online to see how variable its output has been over the last few days. I have looked at GFS 00 and 12z and it certainly has in the far reaches of its runs, circ 276h and beyond.

The ECM has posted different solutions over the last few days post 168hrs which have not even made it past breakfast the next morning.

Its 216hrs output looks very unlikely and its transition from 192 to 216hrs looks suspect, given the amount of possible synoptic evolutions possible has such a miniscule chance of verifying that it becomes irrelevant and hence meets my synoptic garbage rating.

Even if the ECM had plucked a bizarre cold scenario out it would still IMO be rubbish.

My SG rating is rarely applied, I use it sparingly so many horrendous mild looking charts never suffer that fate, its not cherry picking because I don't like its solution.

[Froze were the Days]

Steve Murr is a changed man after the December debacle's!! - it was like a stake to his heart (really can't blame him).

A long way to go in this winter and it has to be said zonaish conditions over the next 10 days looks more probable and Mr Brown's mention of January's and February's of recent years is quite apt - but I still think we've got a chance of 'something' occurring when this SSW event takes place - just not a lot showing at present.

At least the CFS model which was zonal steady a week or so ago looks fairly constant for heights to rise to the north after mid-month.

[UV-RAY]

Here we go again - when deep in the mire drag out the 1947 charts! LOL!

Lol, you know it's bad when 47 and 63 charts get trotted out.

[Jason M]

When people are making all these statements about the models and how poor they are, people always say, it complex situation look at the ENS rather than the OPs, and look at the ens, I think they are pretty decent from 11th- onward even my location has a MEAN of -2/3 until the end of the run with several very cold runs includeing the control.

Yes right now the OPs are not great but looking deeper at the output I really don't think its as bad as some make out. Saying that can I just reiterate what Ian Fergusson has said with regards to the models finding it difficult during pattern changes, this from someone at the met office.

I have the ENS from the 12z on Sunday stored on my phone and I'll post them up later just to show how much the picture even since then has improved.

Def agree with that, the charts and ensembles from the weekend were awful. I think the lowest point was last Thursday IMO after the evening GFS run that was the mild equiv of jan 87. No guarantees as per usual but a pattern change is being hinted at.

Jason

[lorenzo]

I think there is a disconnect here between projected NWP output and the factoring in of /hoping to see an immediate tropospheric response to projected warming in the Stratosphere. In terms of propagation we still need a couple of days of runs to see the projected extent of any instant feedback.

Ian post above is interesting as I have also read the AO positive posts on Am Wx and they are well reasoned, this wouldseem to be directly at offs with the AO signature that prevails following a strat event so I would happily sit on the fence until propagation is worked out.

I wouldn't put it as jam tomorrow though, if it was jam tomorrow. If so it has been the best predicted episode of wave 1 jam arriving ever, to be followed swiftly after with some wave 2 jam of a different flavour. Just to illustrate this is a 00hrs chart, not a projection or out in FI, it is happening now.. Jam today.

Totally agree it is drawn out process and being up close to it leads to frustration at seeing such out put. As much as I agree seeing the continued monster low spewing out energy over Greenland is tedious I remain confident of things shifting around very soon.

72 and 96 hrs heights at 30hpa - this being at such close range will fry the models, fully expecting more wacky output to continue.

No immediate cold on the table... yet.

[johnholmes]

The ECM has posted different solutions over the last few days post 168hrs which have not even made it past breakfast the next morning.

Its 216hrs output looks very unlikely and its transition from 192 to 216hrs looks suspect, given the amount of possible synoptic evolutions possible has such a miniscule chance of verifying that it becomes irrelevant and hence meets my synoptic garbage rating.

Even if the ECM had plucked a bizarre cold scenario out it would still IMO be rubbish.

My SG rating is rarely applied, I use it sparingly so many horrendous mild looking charts never suffer that fate, its not cherry picking because I don't like its solution.

Nick I posted comments on the ECMWF for 240 hours at 00 and 12z for today and Tuesday. There was little if any change from its overall idea of a ridge over the UK. GFS on the other hand showed one as a trough and the other as a ridge-hardly consistent so I continue to dispute your assertion it is wrong in a synoptic manner. To me it has a perfectly feasible solution and is reasonably consistent?

I am not accusing you of cherry picking but I do suggest you look and compare the 00 and 12 runs for both models today and Tuesday please?

I have to say I cannot see how your reasoning at its movement from post 168 is not reasonable-how is it wrong or not reasonable please?

Edited January 2, 2013 by johnholmes

[bluearmy]

that ridge steve posted - thought it was straight out of the 12z gefs. checked the date................................

[mulzy]

It ain't over till the fat lady sings - the hunt for cold is very much alive. I give you a CFS +1026 hrs chart for your perusal.

[mcweather]

Lol, you know it's bad when 47 and 63 charts get trotted out.

I know its really annoying when someone posts a chart from the snowiest winter of the last two hundred years that didn't really get going until after January 20th following a really mild january spell, isn't it? especially one that shows just how quickly things can change.

Edited January 2, 2013 by mcweather

[Bristawl Si]

Lol, you know it's bad when 47 and 63 charts get trotted out.

I know its really annoying when someone posts a chart from the snowiest winter of the last two hundred years that didn't really get going until after January 20th following a really mild january spell, isn't it? especially one that shows just how quickly things can change.

Not "annoying", just amusing esp. as 1947 was an exception in 100 years of UK winters for it's 'late start' and subsequent prolonged cold and snow.

Edited January 2, 2013 by Bristle boy

[bluearmy]

surely its only a matter of time before that becomes an easterly or northeasterly ?

cpc anomoly agrees.

wonder when we'll see some operational consistency in this direction ?

[-uksnow-]

Whether it is deemed for this thread or not i cannot decide, it is sort of discussing the winter models i guess?.... Anyhow, Pier Corbyn (im sure many eyes will roll seeing this) clearly stuck to his guns with his "Battle of Britain" forecast for December, with the mild air winning, well that was correct...he's now going for "JANUARY 2013 WILL BE REMEMBERED. RU READY?"

(Sorry if this is best for the media thread)

I too am sticking with other peoples thoughts on here that the models will only start to build consistency once the SSW has occured.

Edited January 2, 2013 by -eded-

[nick sussex]

Nick I posted comments on the ECMWF for 240 hours at 00 and 12z for today and Tuesday. There was little if any change from its overall idea of a ridge over the UK. GFS on the other hand showed one as a trough and the other as a ridge-hardly consistent so I continue to dispute your assertion it is wrong in a synoptic manner. To me it has a perfectly feasible solution and is reasonably consistent?

I am not accusing you of cherry picking but I do suggest you look and compare the 00 and 12 runs for both models today and Tuesday please?

I have to say I cannot see how your reasoning at its movement from post 168 is not reasonable-how is it wrong or not reasonable please?

Lets put the GFS aside, thats not the issue, you know my thoughts on the GFS FI, the ECM has had all manner of synoptics, we've had troughing to the north, ridge over the UK between low heights either side, we've had a continental flow with an elongated high, we've had a pool of colder uppers being advected sw.

All I can go on is having looked at thousands of model outputs at that range, the pressure pattern to the north of the UK at the 216hrs timeframe looks so unlikely to occur that I fully expect it to disappear by tomorrow morning.

[johnholmes]

cpc anomoly agrees.

yes I'm holding off making a definite statement re the anomaly charts, the NOAA chart is the first time it has shown quite such a +ve area in that region. Both ECMWF and GFS have flirted with that idea but less so this morning. The NAEFS chart is also the first time this has shown that pattern.

So, interesting, 2 more days IF they remain with those type of charts and the ECMWF-GFS version takes up a similar version and we could then be reasonably confident of a pattern change to a colder type in the 6-15 day time scale.

[snowking]

Twitter exchange between Gavin Partridge (of Gav's Weather Vid's fame) and Chris Fawkes (BBC Forecaster) that I thought might just about pass for interesting...:

Chris Fawkes â€@_chrisfawkes

Incidentally, sudden stratospheric warming spliting the vortex can exert an easterly influence on the troposphere for 2 months. Cold winter?

Gavin Partridge â€@GavinPartridge

@_chrisfawkes Get the feeling tonights extended models might just be starting to play with Scandi height rises by day 10?

Chris Fawkes @_chrisfawkes

@GavinPartridge we'll see! The ec 12z run puts an omega upper pattern w of Norway. If that happened that would build high over Scandinavia

SK

Edited January 2, 2013 by snowking

[SMU]

Hi Blue army-

Those ECM 10 day height anomalies look better- all be it the polar one looks a tad on the weak side so its by no means a strong signal-

the ECM debilt ensembles not really sniffing upwind yet though

http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/Data/PLUIM_06260_NWT.png

maybe in the long term outlook- 12th-17th

S

[SMU]

HI Snowking

Looking at the day 10 ECM Op & the comment from Chris-

its VERY VERY optimistic to say thats an omega signature over Norway- especially with heights touching 530 DAM-

I guess theres a chance of something growing out of that- however until you see anything 548 DAM & heigher its a no go im afraid.

You can get surface highs that have say 520 DAM height signatures- however they are usually adjacent to a big block on the western flank supporting it...

S