Summer Forecast - Hot & Dry - Shades Of 1976

[sn0wman]

Excellent Forecast! GFS showing showing signs of this in FL.

[virtualsphere]

Thanks for the detailed forecast - an interesting read as usual, and also good to see an explanation of the teleconnections behind the forecast. I'm sure if this proves as accurate as the winter forecast a lot of people will be happy! If it verifies and we get a decent summer, it will be nice to have a decent cold winter period followed by a hot summer one.

I just hope that the trough stays far away enough not to spoil things for those of us in the west. It's not exactly been wet here recently, but it has felt very cloudy since the end of April although that could just be a skewed perception following such a sunny period over Easter.

[feb1991blizzard]

Excellent Forecast! GFS showing showing signs of this in FL.

ECM your best bet for heat tonight. LP systems tracking further North mid run allowing ressure rise to the east giving hot southerlys at the end.

Edited May 17, 2011 by feb1991blizzard

[Don]

Cheers GP, 1st class as usual. The forecast was pretty much what I expected with June probably being the warmest while August the coolest compared to the average. I hope the forecast for June comes off. However, August looks slightly disappointing, but obviously that's a long way off and things may turn more favourable. It's been a while since we've had a decent August. As I've said before, I'm not a fan of exceptionally warm weather but I am going away in June and August so want decent weather for then at least.

Very unlikely to record an annual sub 10C CET this year! In fact I have feeling that 2011 could well be the warmest year on record beating 2006! Hope not but wouldn't bet against it.

Edited May 17, 2011 by Don

[95 Degrees]

ECM your best bet for heat tonight. LP systems mid run tracking further North mid run allowing ressure rise to the east giving hot southerlys at the end.

Can I marry that chart?!

[Gavin P]

Haaa, Youve always got to remember that 1976 brought such drought conditions because the fact that Summer 1975 was also hot and dry!!!

Indeed. 1976 came at the end of two very dry winters (74-75 and 75-76) and a hot summer (75) So the drought was already very well established and critical by the time summer 76 started.

However, we have had a couple of very dry years. 2009 and 2010 had many dry months and only occasional wet months.

Certainly I can imagine if this summer turns out as GP predicts we will be in a very serious situation by the end of August (in much of England) But probably (hopefully) not suffering the disaster of 1976 - Although agriculture will be devastated and this can only increase inflation on food at exactly the wrong time.

Were we then to go on to have another dry autumn/winter followed by another hot/drought summer in 2012, then I could imgaine the famous 1976 stand pipe scenes being revisited in 2012 - But thats a LOT of if's and highly unlikely (but of course not impossible by any means) Thats why I asked GP about the expected pattern this autumn - Assuming we do have a hot and dry summer it will be absolutely vital for the infrastructure of the country to get a wet autumn and winter.

Edited May 17, 2011 by Gavin P

[Thundery wintry showers]

An interesting forecast and, I imagine, the sort of summer that many would relish, and good to see a lot of supporting evidence behind it. There's one minor quibble that I have- the sort of "high pressure to the east and some troughing to the west" is a pattern that I associate more with 1995, or the Julys of 1994 and 2006, rather than 1976- 1976 did have it at times as well, but there was a long spell from late July to mid August 1976 when there was an elongated high from the Azores to the British Isles.

I don't appreciate drought and dustbowl conditions and I can't see what the benefits are apart from personal gratification for some.

I think personal gratification is an important benefit in itself, although there are limits, if it got really dry then most of us would start to find it too much- same goes for the country being paralysed by a repeat of February/March 1947 or a convective event on the scale recently seen in Alabama. I think if we get a July 1994/2006 type pattern with the trough often close enough to deliver thundery outbreaks in between the hot sunny spells (a pattern, incidentally, that I personally relish), then we should probably cope alright, but an August 1995 type pattern with the trough way out west may leave us with pretty serious water problems.

[Bristawl Si]

Hope the forecast is completely wrong! I do not jest!

Can't stand 30 degree heat in the UK - save it for my hols in the Med or Portugal, where in the main it stays a dry heat.

Trouble with UK heat, like as predicted - it quickly becomes humid, which makes for nice evenings in the garden supping a beer or five or a bottle of wine, but the nights become unbearable to sleep. Come to think of it Monday to Friday in work or travelling home are also nightmares!

A few pleasant days/weeks like we saw in April will do me thanks!

Bah! Humbug!

Edited May 17, 2011 by Bristle boy

[Summer Sun]

Hope the forecast is completely wrong! I do not jest!

Can't stand 30 degree heat in the UK - save it for my hols in the Med or Portugal, where in the main it stays a dry heat.

Trouble with UK heat, like as predicted - it quickly becomes humid, which makes for nice evenings in the garden supping a beer or five or a bottle of wine, but the nights become unbearable to sleep. Come to think of it Monday to Friday in work or travelling home are also nightmares!

A few pleasant days/weeks like we saw in April will do me thanks!

Bah! Humbug!

I hope this forecast is correct, just think what it will do for the tourism.

[Rustynailer]

Everywhere will be yellow with drought again this year then if the NW forecast is right. We get yellow dead dry grass on the Downs and our lawns here most years just like the near continent, this will be more so though I imagine, more like a South of France feel (1976 and 95!). I bet there will be some big storms

Hope the fires of the recent dry spell stay away. There seemed to be a rash of them up and down the UK.

I water with a can only always since I moved down here 20odd years ago. No rain yellow lawn... Soon as it rains green lawn again , just like the Downs, my lawn is of the same grass. Non of that Rye grass stuff in the packet for me.

[feb1991blizzard]

What i would say is we had soaring temperatures and extremely dry weather in the summer of 1990.

If the forecast is to be belived we will be seeing plenty of charts similar to this, one such one is the ECM T240 tonight which i have posted above, with pressure rise to the east.

Then we all know what happened the following winter.

Lets hope history repeats itself.

Edited May 17, 2011 by feb1991blizzard

[Eabie]

I have to admit, I'm not at all pleased with the forecast. I completely understand why most people are - I certainly don't hold it against anyone and I don't want to rain on anyone's parade! But I'm a recent immigrant to the UK (I've been here exactly one week) who found my previous summer in Ontario unbearably hot and humid, and I was really, really looking forward to a typical UK summer to make up for it. Instead, I feel like I brought Ontario summer weather with me, and I completely loathe it - sweating like a pig, being unable to work, waking up in a sweat... Ugh!

Like I said, I understand why everyone is excited about it. But a typical UK summer is what would have been more atypical for me, and I was rather keen on it... not for the hottest summer in 35 years.

The one bright spot for me is the possibility of thunderstorms.

Edited May 17, 2011 by Eabie

[damianslaw]

A very bold forecast. Not good news for agriculture it has to be said, but I am a firm believer in mother nature balancing herself out given time, if we see a very dry summer after a very dry spring and relatively dry winter I wouldn't be surprised if autumn delivers plenty of the rain.

There is a potential fly in the ointment and that is we could see the troublesome trough just close enough to the west to give much cloudier and damp weather for western parts for much of the summer whilst the east rejoices in sunshine - I hope not a warm claggy murky southerly/southwesterly is something I certainly don't relish. Personally speaking I'd much rather have cleaner northerly sources which give brilliant sunshine and whilst not the extreme heat they are great for getting outdoors. The forecast suggests high humidity and therefore exceptionally unpleasant conditions for outdoor activity and days when all you want to do is lounge about. Southerly airstreams bring lots of haze aswell - we may see a warm dry summer but it could be a very cloudy hazy affair for many and shouts of major air pollution which is not good news for personal health - there are downsides to hot humid dry weather to health as well...

We shall see if it pans out - I don't recall GP forecasting the depth of the december freeze all that well and net weather forecasts have been prone to many inaccuracies, the end result could easily be a toned down version - put it this way if the meto put the same forecast out how many would be betting their money on it - not many I suspect after recent debacles..

Edited May 17, 2011 by damianslaw

[The Northern Ramper]

I'm just peeved i had to move my holidays from June to August, i hope that suttle differences occur which lead to an improved August.

[80sWeather]

Thank you for the great forecast ,some of the best storms ive seen can come from heat 30c plus. Also could be many wild fires with the ground allready so dry,but personally i love hot weather it just seems to bring the UK to life with such a positive vibe.

[95 Degrees]

I'm just peeved i had to move my holidays from June to August, i hope that suttle differences occur which lead to an improved August.

Me too, I'm going to SW France in late july/early august and would hate to come back to british weather, adapting to the cold isn't easy after 30+ temperatures, we are due a good august though!

[feb1991blizzard]

Me too, I'm going to SW France in late july/early august and would hate to come back to british weather, adapting to the cold isn't easy after 30+ temperatures, we are due a good august though!

I doubt you have got anything to worry about there mate, even an ardent cold fan like me would doubt very much that you would come back to britain and find cold weather in august. GP still said around average or even slightly above temps in august anyway, its just that he said there may be more rain than in june.

Edited May 17, 2011 by feb1991blizzard

[Thundery wintry showers]

I've seen Bristle boy's list of pros and cons- I see the comment that it's meant to be tongue-in-cheek, but let's just say that while the negatives are fair, the positives are downplayed, especially on the social/recreational benefits front.

There is a potential fly in the ointment and that is we could see the troublesome trough just close enough to the west to give much cloudier and damp weather for western parts for much of the summer whilst the east rejoices in sunshine - I hope not a warm claggy murky southerly/southwesterly is something I certainly don't relish. Personally speaking I'd much rather have cleaner northerly sources which give brilliant sunshine and whilst not the extreme heat they are great for getting outdoors. The forecast suggests high humidity and therefore exceptionally unpleasant conditions for outdoor activity and days when all you want to do is lounge about. Southerly airstreams bring lots of haze aswell - we may see a warm dry summer but it could be a very cloudy hazy affair for many and shouts of major air pollution which is not good news for personal health - there are downsides to hot humid dry weather to health as well...

There's some aspects of the forecast that make me wonder, since high humidity and frequent southerly winds rarely equates to an excessive shortage of rainfall. I remember the period 24 June-4 August 1994 for frequent humid weather and southerly winds, but it was also an exceptionally thundery period and, averaged nationally, although rainfall was deficient it was not exceptionally so. Similarly, the mean sea-level pressure anomaly chart points to rather more of a cyclonic influence than would be suggested by a sustained lack of rainfall. This doesn't mean that the forecast is inconsistent but rather that I can see a fair number of variables out there which suggest that the forecast might be more prone to error over the dryness than over the heat and sunshine (good news for those concerned about drought).

Not sure about "cloudy" hazy southerlies- they often do bring hazy weather associated with the pollution from the continent, but anticyclonic/southerly summer months have a strong habit of ranking among the sunniest on record, and again April 2011 was a good recent illustration of the large sunshine amounts that often accompany that weather pattern. I really don't see much likelihood of a claggy murky pattern with a strong base of high pressure to the east- claggy murky weather arises when we get a broad drag of tropical maritime air and high pressure centred to the south and SE. In fact I remember that in June 2003, when the trough was close enough to bring generally unsettled conditions, conditions in Lancaster (a location that normally gets a raw deal in NW-SE divides) were reasonably sunny and warm despite near-average rainfall.

[Geordiesnow]

Well i'm hoping for a hot summer as per the forecast but I'm not going to read too much into it personally. As with any forecast, its just a prediction and for all we know the forecast could well be totally wrong.

Whilst I would love a hot dry summer, I don't mind a summer Northerly which can bring interesting convective weather, I don't think I ever recall a proper summer Northerly since joining Net Weather and plus it would more than likely to bring rain so getting useful rainfall aswell as having warm Southerlies.

Reading the posts in this thread, people seem excited by the forecast and hope it comes off yet because of the rainfall situation, I wonder how long it will be if we do get the hot weather people will be preying for rain. I do feel there is a little bit of becareful what you wish for but we have recovered from drought conditions before and we will again, I don't think there is too much to worry about regarding the lack of rain even if the NW forecast is accurate.

[Bottesford]

Reading the posts in this thread, people seem excited by the forecast and hope it comes off yet because of the rainfall situation, I wonder how long it will be if we do get the hot weather people will be preying for rain. I do feel there is a little bit of becareful what you wish for but we have recovered from drought conditions before and we will again, I don't think there is too much to worry about regarding the lack of rain even if the NW forecast is accurate.

No one went into panic on here during December when the severe cold was making a massive impact on the fragile UK economy, only just out of recession. And the damage went on as soon as the cold hit - unlike drought which may hit potentially a few months down the line if thing don't change in the mean time. So why the panic?

[ZONE 51]

Excellent work! the summer forecast was a very interesting read, and the reasons why the main highs and lows are where they are or going to be this summer was explained very well, we have been and are in an interesting weather pattern not what we are used to! it makes for exciting times ahead for weather watchers!

Edited May 17, 2011 by ElectricSnowStorm

[davehsug]

In reply to an earlier post, 1976 wasn't actually that humid if I recall correctly, it was really a very dry heat & was so prolonged that you became aclimatised to it. There was some exciting weather too! I remember the evening of July 4th had electrical storms. There was masses of what seemed to me to be pink fork lightning, but very little rain.

Edited May 17, 2011 by davehsug

[Alex]

No one went into panic on here during December when the severe cold was making a massive impact on the fragile UK economy, only just out of recession. And the damage went on as soon as the cold hit - unlike drought which may hit potentially a few months down the line if thing don't change in the mean time. So why the panic?

Totally agree bottesford, i lost many plants last winter some which have been around many years and have had to relay the lawn because of the very cold winter, not many people moaned about it but it cost me a whole lot of money when you start adding in heating bills etc!

Bring on a hot dry summer, the majority will be happier and it'll be great to get out and about more!

[Gavin P]

No one went into panic on here during December when the severe cold was making a massive impact on the fragile UK economy, only just out of recession. And the damage went on as soon as the cold hit - unlike drought which may hit potentially a few months down the line if thing don't change in the mean time. So why the panic?

Perhaps because a lot of places are already in quite a significant drought (granted it partly goes back to the pattern we had in the winter that delivered that tremendously cold December) and the longer it goes on the more people can see a looming agricultural disaster if nothing else.

We are a long way off from seeing the reservoirs drying up, so my main concern isnt for the nations water supply (yet) but its really with farmers who are having a hard time and will experiance a terrible crisis if this forecast is correct.

And of course if all our vegetables die due to lack of water that will hit prices in the shops and create an even bigger inflation problem.

Edited May 17, 2011 by Gavin P

[rob48]

No one went into panic on here during December when the severe cold was making a massive impact on the fragile UK economy, only just out of recession. And the damage went on as soon as the cold hit - unlike drought which may hit potentially a few months down the line if thing don't change in the mean time. So why the panic?

It had a minor impact on footfall in shopping centres which was largely off-set by increased online commerce. The major effect was short-term travel issues.

"May hit potentially"

There'll be no potential about it if root crops fail by the thousands of acres.

You mention the fragile economy.

What effect do you think escalating food prices will have on that?

Do you actually remember 1976?