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THE COLD SPELL - WINTER 2011/2012
Snow Diary during Cold Spell:
Thursday 26th January - Snow showers from the west - Lying snow of a dusting
Friday 27th January - No Snowfal - Lying snow of a dusting
Tuesday 31st January - Light Snow showers from the east - No Lying Snow
Friday 1st February - Light snow flurry from the east - No Lying Snow
DAYS AND EVENTS:
26 JAN:
* Snow for NW from a NWly
* GLASGOW AIRPORT: 4C/-1C, SNOW
* TEMPERATURES:
27 JAN:
*GLASGOW AIRPORT: 5C/-2C
*TEMPERATURES:
28 JAN:
*GLASGOW AIRPORT: 2C/-3C, FOG
*TEMPERATURES:
29 JAN:
* Snow for Wales and SW England as Front from the west meets cold air (AMBER WARNING)
* Snow for NE England from some showers from Easterly
*GLASGOW AIRPORT: 5C/-2C
*TEMPERATURES
30 JAN:
*Snow for Wales from Front from West meets cold air
*Snow for NE England E Scotland from the easterly
*Met Office Upgrade Cold Warning Levels to Level 3
*Met Office Issue Yellow Warning for Ice to Eastern Areas
*GLASGOW AIRPORT: 4C/-2C
*TEMPERATURES:
31 JAN:
*Snow showers for E England, E and C Scotland
*GLASGOW AIRPORT: 4C/-2C
*TEMPERATURES
1 FEB:
*Cold and sunny - only snow flurries in NE Coast
*GLASGOW AIRPORT: 4C/-5C
*TEMPERATURES
2 FEB:
*Very cold and sunny
*Snow around the Wash
*GLASGOW AIRPORT: 2C/-7C
*TEMPERATURES
3 FEB:
*Very cold and sunny
*Some snow for E England
*GLASGOW AIRPORT: 5C/-3C
*TEMPERATURES
4 FEB:
*Rain meets cold air - snow for England (Amber Warning) - Severe distruption and 10cm
*GLASGOW AIRPORT: 6C/0C
*TEMPERATURES:
5 FEB:
*Cold spell continues in England
*GLASGOW AIRPORT: 7C/1C
6 FEB:
*Cold and foggy
*GLASGOW AIRPORT: 2C/0C, FOG
7 FEB:
*Cold, sunny.
8 FEB:
*Cold, cloudy
9 FEB:
*Cold, foggy
*Significant snow and freezing rain event in England.
29TH JANUARY
14:00
Welcome to my cold spell blog! We've waited a long time since Chrsitmas 2010 for a decent cold spell, and now it looks like a decent cold spell is on the way. This blog will include updates with the models, analysis of the weather day by day, updates on events and news stories and articles about it, weather events and analysis, temperature diary kept and a lot of personal imput, comment and thought about the cold spell, it's developments, events here in Torrance, Scotland and the rest of the UK. So watch out for data on the cold snap, it's events and general discussion on it. I do wonder, that by this time next week, will the phrase Big Freeze be in use again! It certainly will be interesting to see if it does. Anyway, let's get talking about the cold spell!
SNOW MAP - courtesy of weathermaster!
MET OFFICE WARNING: AMBER FOR S WALES, YELLOW FOR WALES/SW ENGLAND FOR SNOW
Issued at - 29 Jan 2012, 12:07
Valid from - 29 Jan 2012, 15:30
Valid to - 30 Jan 2012, 12:00
Rain pushing in from the west is expected turn to snow on the leading edge,
especially on hills. As much as 10 cm may accumulate across hilly parts of south and southeast Wales,
this area covered by the Amber warning, the main focus being through this evening. For SW England,
accumulations of about 5 cm are possible over the moors, with Exmoor most likely to see these
amounts through this evening. A slushy covering of 1 or 2cm of snow at lower levels could not be ruled out.
Further east across southern England, snow is more likely to arrive overnight or early on Monday morning but
with only 1 or 2 cm at most, again chiefly over the hills.
The public are advised to be aware of the potential for disruption to traffic, particularly this evening
within the amber area. There remains uncertainty in the amounts of snow, and also the eastern extent
of any snow, so please check for further
So a snow event for Wales and SW England! The Scandinavia High is in place and the first showers on the first day of the easterly have occured in the east - some falling as sleet/snow! A cold day across the country so let's see what temperatures are when the readings come in.
Tomorrow - Easterly flow, colder uppers and -10C uppers shown by NAE charts for E coasts. Perhaps a few snow showers for these areas. It's a case of nowcasting as snow showers can pop up at short notice! Should be pretty cold too as the cold snap continues (it's been here since the 26th in Glasgow). I'll post the snow map for tomorrow when it comes.
Models - (As of 6Z) Showing cold snap and easterly for the early part of the week before deep cold arrives. Lot's of snow for the south and eastern coasts. -15C uppers in areas too and -10C uppers widely across the UK! Cold snap projected to continue into weekend. Low pressure (perhaps over estimated by GFS 6Z) may bring a lot of snow for the west initially before it gradually gets less cold. However there are hints of Greenland High and Scandi Hi looks like staying around. This could last a while and by this time next week we'll know for sure whether the cold spell will continue, end for good, or another cold spell will start. Maybe little snow for Scotland from easterly but it's a case of nowcasting and things can pop-up at short-notice.
http://www.bbc.co.uk.../feeds/16773466
So a cold snap is here and it looks set to stay. Next week could be very potent. I'll update on the temperatures and snow events of the cold spell, any articles or videos on it, some snow maps, some personal input and discussion about it aswell as an update on events and the models. I should update later today!
Now let's see what the great freezes of the last 3 winters were in Glasgow:
So far this cold spell in Glasgow has been around for 4 days and lot's set to last at least another 8 days. Glasgow Airport has recorded one day of snow falling, coldest max of 2c and a coldest min of -3c.
Between the 2nd and 13th of February 2009, there was a 12 day big freeze. The coldest maximum temperature was 1C (9th) and coldest minimum was -7C (10th). There was 6 days of snowfall. The coldest temperatures anywhere as -18C. My maximum depth was around 10cm.
Between the 17th of December 2009 and 14th January 2010, there was a 29 day big freeze. The coldest maximum temperature was -6C (8th Jan) and the coldest minimum was -12C (8th Jan). There was 15 days of falling snow. Coldest temperature anywhere was -22C. My maximum depth was around 10cm.
Between the 24th November and 9th December 2010, there was a 16 day big freeze. The coldest maximum temperature was -8C (7th Dec) and my coldest minimum was -14C (7th Dec). There was 11 days of snowfall. Coldest temperature anywhere was -21C. My maximum snow depth was 25cm. My Snow Diary from that winter: http://forum.netweat...-of-the-winter/
Between the 17th and 27th of December 2010, there was an 11 day big freeze. The coldest maximum temperature was -5C (21st/22nd) and my coldest minimum was -14C (23rd). Coldest Temperature anywhere was -21C. My maximum snow depth was around 5cm.
And so far, our cold snap has lasted 4 days, coldest temperature in Glasgow has been 2c/-3c, one official day of snow from the airport. Other details on coldest temperatures elsehwhere are unclear but I believe -7C has been reached.
19:00
Model Update:
GFS 12z was a disaster with the atlantic winning and the UKMO followed like wise. However the start of next week will be cold and all of these runs showed the Scandi Hi still in place right at the end so February looks set to be interesting for model watching. ECM was okay and towards the end that Scandi Hi is still there and easterly aswell. So Scandi Hi still in place makes anything possible, easterly now in store - anything can happen. I do hope that a Greenie Hi eventually occurs. Also, some background signals apparently look good. So considering how the models will chop and change and that we've just started a cold spell with Scandi hi here and set to stay aswell as a whole load of scenarios, it really is all to play for.
Today Update:
Snow has been observed in Aberdeenshire as the easterly begins. And right now the snow is beginning to get going in Wales. It's chilly outside at 2C as we continue or cold spell. I'll hope to update on what tomorrow will have instore soon. It seems that those in the NE of England and Scotland could enjoy some snow showers. The cold theme looks set to continue as -10C uppers reach east coast.
SNOW MAP - MONDAY 30TH JANUARY 2012
As another front meets colder air, perhaps there could be snow at it's western edge over SW Wales and England. As the easterly flow gets going there could be wintryness in the showers in the NE.
30TH JANUARY
19:30
Today's Events:
Here in Torrance it was sunny and very cold with frosty start. Throughout the day, it was cold with maximum of around 3-5C and now the temperature is below 0C. The Easterly flow is now in place for eastern areas and some places have seen some snow showers. Elsewhere, in SW England and Wales, a front meeting colder air has meant some snowfall for areas. Earlier today, the Met office issued a Level 3 Warning of Cold for England. Tonight - expect snow showers to continue in the east. I'll post the snow map later when available.
Tomorrow:
Yet again, expect another cold and sunny day. Tomorrow might prove to be quite interesting for some eastern areas as there may be a bit more in the way of snow showers - so yes light snow showers are in the forecast. Temperatures are set to struggle to make it above 1-4C across the UK and widespread night-time frosts.
Outlook:
The cold snap at the moment looks like it will continue to last into next week, perhaps gone by the weekend. Little in the way of snow becasue of the slack easterly flow but the model updates in the coming days will paint a better picture.
Models:
(As of GFS 12z) - Potential easterly for some during the next few days. Next week has -10C uppers across large parts but notable, widespread snowfall looks unlikely. A non-snowy breakdown may happen before the weekend. After this, it's uncertain so the cold snap may continue. The GFS 12z run wasn't optimistic or promising, but the picture is unclear for the second half of next week. The positioning of the high, atlantic lows and shortwaves will be crucial. Hopefully, we'll have another go for a cold snap later in February if needed.
SNOW MAP FOR TUESDAY 31ST JANUARY 2012:
There is a small risk of sleet in the SW of England. The main focus tomorrow is E Scotland where there could be snow showers heading into Aberdeenshire, Angus, Perthshire and Fife.
31ST JANUARY
18:00
Today's Events:
First snow from an easterly this winter occurred today. Playing football in the freezing cold and some nice, fine, small snow flakes were falling down for about 20 mins. Quite a surprise really! Now, today here was pretty cold with the temperature getting no higher than 4C. It was also far cloudier than expected - probably from the easterly. Now snow showers continued for some eastern areas too.
Tomorrow:
Need to catch up on this and I'll update a snow map later but I would imagine that eastern areas would continue to see snow showers.
Models:
Models show the cold snap lasting towards the weekend. It looks like for Glasgow, the cold snap will end with milder air winning - whereas the SE clings on to the cold but this may not happen as we don't know what the Scandi Hi or Atlantic will do. Beyond this, the models throw away the massive block????!!! But, there are hints of a greenie high - so a different cold snap might happen later and it may be THE cold snap of the winter!
20:30
It is official that we are in the longest cold snap of the winter! Tomorrow could end the cold snap if the temperature rises above 6 or 7C but I doubt that. Here are the cold snaps of this winter: Dec 4-6), (Dec 15-18), (Jan 13-16), (Jan 26-31....)
Let's also have a look at how this winter in terms of falling snow days compares with other winters (in case you're wondering lying snow this winter has been good - particulary in December so I'm happy on that front):
All of the data comes from Glasgow Airport and I have a complete stack of data about every official recorded snow event since I can remember snow:
DECEMBER 2011: SNOWFALLS - 6 (4th, 5th, 6th, 9th, 16th, 17th), COLDEST TEMP (2/-5C)
JANUARY 2012: SNOWFALLS - 3 (20th, 24th, 26th), COLDEST TEMP (2/-5C)
OVERALL: 9, 2/-5C
1. 2009/2010 - 23
2. 2010/2011 - 18
3. 2000/2001 - 13
4. 2008/2009 - 13
5. 1999/2000 - 9
6. 2011/2012 - 9
My Snowiest Months - TOP 10:
1. December 2009 - 11
2. December 2010 - 10
3. December 1999 - 7
4. January 2010 - 7
5. December 2011 - 6
Least Snowiest Months:
23. January 2011 - 3 - (P.S this January is closer to being one of my snowier months)
Winter seasons interms of Autumn to Spring:
1. 2010/2011 - 27
2. 2009/2010 - 24
3. 2008/2009 - 17
4. 2000/2001 - 16
5. 2007/2008 - 13
6. 2004/2005 - 10
7. 1999/2000 - 9
2012 is also already snowier than 2006 in terms of winter months!
So as you can see, this winter has been in terms of snow events one of the snowiest that I've experienced and December was one of the snowiest months. Even January has been good as it's not even in the top 15 least snowiest winter months that I've seen and it's already made this year snowier than 2006 with winter months. Infact January is on the average for my snow days in January. And we've still got another month to go to make this metereological winter even better and with Spring we make things even better. And with lying snow this winter has already smashed some other winters and has kept the theme of decent snowfalls and days of lying snow of the past few winters going. I've seen deeper lying snow in previous winter prior to 2007, but I've had many consecutive days of decent lying snow and two decent events so all in all I can positively that this winter has been more than a success for Glasgow with lots of snowfalls and very decent lying snow events and number of days of lying snow.
Some people are moaning about winter and want Spring. Here was my response:
There are too many intricate details in model forecasting. We've barely started February and the background signals look good for Scandi Hi retrogression to Greenland. And there is a trend for heights in the mid atlantic and GP who you should be listening too is remaining very upbeat about February. Anyway, it's the weather - just get out there and enjoy what ever it throws at you. And a Big Freeze can be possible in March if that's what you're looking for. By the I'll be looking out for cold spells and more snowfalls aswell as days full of sunshine and frost, some rain, the last winds and the first heat. Then April, I'll look for a snowfall to add to my Snow Diary and then look for sunshine, showers and heat.
So I think February has a lot to offer and the Atlantic will stop eventually, Spring could be very wintry and our largest snow events can happen in March. 3 out of the last 6 winters have seen Scotland's best snow event happen in March. I would also be interested for something a bit more prolonged and interesting but really I'll be looking for Spring weather for this Spring and yes that includes snow (maybe lots of it) and aswell as lots of sunshine, frost, heat in second half and other interesting types.
Another response
Winter my friend is not over yet! And Spring is a fantastic time of year with such fantastic variaties of winter. I fancy catching a wintry march frost, snow (battleground) and cold sunny days packed full with other weather, an April with the odd snowfall and some frost and lots of sunshine, showers and some heat. And a warm May with some of the elments of April. Spring my friend, has got a lot more to offer than storms. The transition from winter to summer, the sunshine and the cloud, the showers and the wind, the snow and the heat, the chill and the warmth - Spring is a great time for weather indeed! But enjoy the final chapter of this winter - it could prove to be interesting.
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So yes this winter has been great already but I can say that things are looking up. BBC forecast empahsises the uncertainity beyond the weekend (perhaps snowy breakdown) and it could end up very cold. Trend for Greenland High Perhaps? So lot's to look forward to you before we reach the active season of Spring.
1ST FEBRUARY
18:00
Today's events:
Sunny and quite cold - especially right now. Nothing much happening at all but our longest cold snap of the winter continues:
Tomorrow:
Sunny and cold again with snow flurries confined to east coast.
Model Output:
Cold spell to end on Friday, after that we're clueless but Greenland High and well, anything could happen!
2ND FEBRUARY
18:00
Today's events:
Very, very cold today, can't remember the last time we had a colder temperature than this. Last night saw temperatures across the UK widely below freezing and in quite a few areas below freezing. -7C was recorded at Glasgow Airport and -5C was recorded widely across Scotland. The car this morning read -4.5C and it was a very hard frost and cold throughout today with fantastic winter sunshine earlier. So the longest cold snap continues with some snow earlier today in the E of England.
Tomorrow:
It will be quite cold, colder in the SE. Potential for snow in the west however this should raise the temperatures slightly.
Model Output:
Scottish cold snap ends before Saturday but in England, there's a warning issed for heavy snow with a stalling front. Beyond this is very uncertain as we don't know what the Scandi Hi will do or whether there will be a Greenie Hi or not. But the models are showing Nlys during February.
3RD FEBRUARY
16:00
Today's events:
Very cold again with a low -11C in some places. Today was sunny here and pretty cold. However, when I woke up, it was clear to see that it had snowed over night with some snow flakes on the car!!! That's the first snowfall of February 2012. Now, today could be Glasgow's last day of the cold snap, as England enjoyed snow in the early hours. There is a [amber] warning for much of England for the weekend for snow as a front meets cold air and stalls. It's not meant to snow for Glasgow but a shift westwards could end up with a spectacular outcome for us!
Tomorrow:
Cold spell ends for Glasgow with rain, England and Wales get hit by one of the main snow events of this winter.
Model Outlook:
Very unclear to what the Scandi Hi will do so a battle will continue. Cold weather still possible for the rest of February and into March.
4TH FEBRUARY
13:00
Today's Events:
A few nights of temps below -11C, a cold warning, a snow warning for England and even the BBC are using the phrase Big Freeze. An Amber warning for snow has been issued for much of England as a front meets cold air with a potential for 5-10cm of snow in many areas. However, here in East Dunbartonshire there is now an amber warning for snow?! I wonder how wrong that will be. It's been a wet morning and so far the cold spell is still here but will it still be here for the full day? I also wonder what distruptiona and chaos and hysteria there will be in England.
Tomorrow:
Cold spell should have ended here in Glasgow but in the SE it will continue as they are buried under 5-10cm of snow. Mainly sunny for quite a few areas.
Model Output:
I called this blog for the Cold Spell of the winter. If the models and strat thread are anything to go by, this may not even be the cold spell of the winter after all. There has been great consistency for northern blocking over Greenland and some experienced members have mentioned essences of December 2010 in this scenario. The models are showing blocking and cold northerlies over us and the strat thread was apparently great with it's updates. However we need to see this trend continue before we get too ahead of ourselves. But if this scenario were to happen, we would be looking at a 4th Consecutive winter with a big freeze. We are probably looking at a reverse of last winter with the main event at the end of the winter and start of Spring rather than the end of autumn into the start of the winter. February would end up cold and the winter in Scotland may well end up being slightly below average. My snow diary would get busy, the media would go nuts, the country wouldn't cope as we would be plunged into another great cold spell with lots of snow and cold and lasting for a long time. I would absolutely love this but we need to wait and see how this evolves. It would certainly make for an interesting end to winter and start to Spring.
5TH FEBRUARY
14:00
Today's Events:
We had no snow yesterday and the cold snap continued luckily enough. However in England and Wales it was a fantastic day yesterday with the most significant and widespread snow event of the winter. 10CM plus in many areas and lots of distruption. So England and Wales have already had a better year in terms of snow than 2011. And they have joined W Scotland in the decent winter club whereas E Scotland and NI would be feeling a wee bit lonely. Today, cold start and cloudy here with some blue sky. Further south in England, there is distruption the cold spell continues as they are buried under snow.
Tomorrow:
The cold spell should have ended by now in Scotland but in England it will continue.
Model Output:
It looks like next week, the Scandi Hi will still be here but what it will do and bring to us is uncertain and of course the models may not have grasped how stong the block is. Now, in England it should be cold next week but anything could happen. Background signals look good for Northern Blocking but the models are a bit unclear on this.
6TH FEBRUARY
I'm not sure if the cold snap ended in Glasgow yesterday but if so then we've entered another one.
Today's Events:
Very cold and foggy - ice and lying snow causing distruption in England.
Tomorrow:
Cold
Model Output:
Very unclear, Greenie High not being shown yet.
7TH FEBRUARY
Today's Events:
Very cold and sunny today - a real lovely, crisp winter's day in what's been a pleasant, long lasting, sunny cold spell with lots of frost. Some showers for eastern coasts.
Tomorrow:
Potential for snow showers in eastern areas - cold spell should have ended here - again!
Model Output:
Cold spell continues in the SE of England for at least another 5 days. Scotland may see one or two snow events in the coming days. Beyond this, there is cross-model agreement on a Greenland High with a potent northerly toppler - anything could happen but with a Greenland High around our best cold spell of the winter is perhaps waiting to happen.
8TH FEBRUARY
23:30
Today's Events: Should be last day of cold spell as front comes in. Today was cold and cloudy. Freezing rain may become an issue.
Tomorrow: Potential for snow for England again.
Model Output: Northerly next week with high pressure in atlantic. All eyes to whether we get a Greenie High and a severe cold spell.
9TH FEBRUARY
19:00
Today's events:
Cold, cloudy and foggy today - has to be the last day of the cold spell - surely? Down south - more snow as a front meets cold air.
Tomorrow:
Cold spell ends here and a bit uncertain.
Model Output:
Sometimes good for a northerly then not good - we are none the wiser about what's going to happen. At least GPs thoughts are promising.
10TH FEBRUARY
23:30
Cold spell ends here in Glasgow but very cold further south after another dump of snow earlier today. -11.5C in one spot! How low can it go - the models are still confusing at the mo.
