Weather Masters 2013 Summer Forecast
Entry posted by Zenarcher
1,611 views
[center]Update 21st July 2013[/center]
[color=rgb(40,40,40)][font=helvetica]
A small update from my original summer forecast back in May,[/font][/color]
[color=rgb(40,40,40)][font=helvetica]
First onto August and September the CFS seems confident on average temperatures for the rest of the summer. As for rainfall, August average with some Western area's seeing below average rainfall as we move into September things change around with most of the UK seeing very wet weather to end the summer.[/font][/color]
[color=rgb(40,40,40)][font=helvetica]
And with more data available I have reran the climate simulator for the temperatures,[/font][/color]
[color=rgb(40,40,40)][font=helvetica]
[url="http://forum.netweather.tv/index.php?app=core&module=attach§ion=attach&attach_rel_module=post&attach_id=178427"][img]http://f.nwstatic.co.uk/forum/uploads/monthly_07_2013/xpost-6686-0-65940600-1374419197_thumb.png.pagespeed.ic.QuvtB48KXC.png[/img][/url][/font][/color]
[color=rgb(40,40,40)][font=helvetica]
The pink line is our forecast average temperature and the green line is the average so its basically saying the average temperatures for the rest of summer to be mainly 1.5c above average.[/font][/color]
[center][size=6][b]Summer Forecast 2013[/b][/size][/center]
[size=5][b]How the forecast was made[/b][/size]
I've used the CFS monthly mean maps that pick up long range term trends for the upcoming months. I have also
used a program called Clima Sim to help back up my forecast in certain area's. I used the program for the winter forecast and it done well, so I will be using it again for the summer forecast. After checking how Clima Sim handled the winter it does seem to forecast temperatures slightly more accurate than the CFS.
[size=5][b]June [/b][/size]- Last year we saw a very unsettled June with very heavy rain at times causing places to flood, low pressure mainly dominated the month we also had strong winds and the mean temperature was 0.7 °C below average. I believe June 2013 will be very different to last years.
[b]Temperature[/b]
[attachment=172100:JuneTemp.png]
For June 2013 the CFS shows it to be average for all of the UK apart from the Eastern coasts of England that may be slightly on the below average temperatures.
[b]Rainfall[/b]
[attachment=172101:JuneRainfall.png]
In the image above it shows June 2012 being a very wet month and that the CFS had it forecast to be wet. This year the CFS goes for a very dry month over Scotland, Ireland, Northern & South Western England and Wales, with the rest being average.
[b]Pressure[/b]
[attachment=172102:JunePressure.png]
The image above shows high pressure being high over the Atlantic region and into Western parts of the UK this would explain the average temperatures and drier weather especially for those in the West and North.
[size=5][b]July[/b][/size] - Last year it continued the unsettled theme with more rainfall, low pressure in charge and the overall mean temperature was 1.0 °C below average. The weather did get slightly warmer and drier towards the end though. For this year it may continue what June had.
[b]Temperature[/b]
[attachment=172103:JulyTemp.png]
Its looking very similar to what June has average everywhere apart from the Eastern coasts that could be just slightly cooler than average. Overall it does look to be warmer than last years July.
[b]Rainfall[/b]
[attachment=172104:JulyRainfall.png]
The CFS goes for Ireland and Southern Scotland to be very dry elsewhere either slightly drier or average.
[b]Pressure[/b]
[attachment=172105:JulyPressure.png]
Any high pressure doesn't look strong over the UK but it should mainly appear in the Atlantic. Low pressure sits to our East. This would explain why temperatures to the far East are at risk of being slightly cooler.
[size=5][b]August[/b][/size] - Last year it was again dominated by low pressure with more wind and rain and only the South East of England saw the best of the dry weather and sunshine. Temperatures were however 0.4 °C above average. August this year may be similar to last years. It is important to note confidence levels drop a bit here.
[b]Temperature[/b]
Average for the entire UK so similar to last years August temperatures.
[b]Rainfall[/b]
[attachment=172106:AugustRainfall.png]
The CFS goes for above average rainfall over Ireland, Wales and the Midlands. Elsewhere remaining average.
[b]Pressure[/b]
[attachment=172107:AugustPressure.png]
At the moment it's looking like it will be a battle between high and low pressure. High pressure mainly very strong to our East and low pressure to our West in the Atlantic. The low pressure doesn't look strong though so the high pressure may win and give the UK a decent spell of good weather.
[size=5][b]September[/b] [/size]- Last year the first half started off fine for most but the second half became more unsettled. It was another summer month with below average temperatures that were 0.7 °C below the average mean. Confidence for September is low at the moment.
[b]Temperature[/b]
Average for all of the UK so may be slightly warmer than last years.
[b]Rainfall[/b]
[attachment=172109:SeptemberRainfall.png]
Below average over Scotland and South Western England. Elsewhere average.
[b]Pressure[/b]
[attachment=172108:SeptemberPressure.png]
High pressure is to our West and East but low pressure is expected to be over the UK.
[size=5][b]Climate Simulations[/b][/size]
[attachment=172110:ClimateSim.png]
After finally getting the data needed to run the simulations the results are in for the summer, so to put the image above into simple words the results came back saying that the temperatures on average through the summer will be about 0.5°C above average. It didn't show anything very warm or cold just slightly warmer than usual overall.
[size=5][b]Overall Thoughts[/b][/size]
Starting with temperatures looking through the CFS trends and the Climate Simulator data temperatures are forecast be be either average or just slightly above average. None of them are showing anything very warm or cold. Onto rainfall and it looks like it will start off much drier than normal with June and July. August changes this as it turns average everywhere with Wales and the Midlands looking to be wetter. September takes us back to drier rainfall amounts close to average.
To sum it up in a few words, mainly drier than usual with temperatures being average or slightly above average but no exceptional warm spell expected.
I hope you enjoyed reading this forecast.
[color=rgb(40,40,40)][font=helvetica]
A small update from my original summer forecast back in May,[/font][/color]
[color=rgb(40,40,40)][font=helvetica]
First onto August and September the CFS seems confident on average temperatures for the rest of the summer. As for rainfall, August average with some Western area's seeing below average rainfall as we move into September things change around with most of the UK seeing very wet weather to end the summer.[/font][/color]
[color=rgb(40,40,40)][font=helvetica]
And with more data available I have reran the climate simulator for the temperatures,[/font][/color]
[color=rgb(40,40,40)][font=helvetica]
[url="http://forum.netweather.tv/index.php?app=core&module=attach§ion=attach&attach_rel_module=post&attach_id=178427"][img]http://f.nwstatic.co.uk/forum/uploads/monthly_07_2013/xpost-6686-0-65940600-1374419197_thumb.png.pagespeed.ic.QuvtB48KXC.png[/img][/url][/font][/color]
[color=rgb(40,40,40)][font=helvetica]
The pink line is our forecast average temperature and the green line is the average so its basically saying the average temperatures for the rest of summer to be mainly 1.5c above average.[/font][/color]
[center][size=6][b]Summer Forecast 2013[/b][/size][/center]
[size=5][b]How the forecast was made[/b][/size]
I've used the CFS monthly mean maps that pick up long range term trends for the upcoming months. I have also
used a program called Clima Sim to help back up my forecast in certain area's. I used the program for the winter forecast and it done well, so I will be using it again for the summer forecast. After checking how Clima Sim handled the winter it does seem to forecast temperatures slightly more accurate than the CFS.
[size=5][b]June [/b][/size]- Last year we saw a very unsettled June with very heavy rain at times causing places to flood, low pressure mainly dominated the month we also had strong winds and the mean temperature was 0.7 °C below average. I believe June 2013 will be very different to last years.
[b]Temperature[/b]
[attachment=172100:JuneTemp.png]
For June 2013 the CFS shows it to be average for all of the UK apart from the Eastern coasts of England that may be slightly on the below average temperatures.
[b]Rainfall[/b]
[attachment=172101:JuneRainfall.png]
In the image above it shows June 2012 being a very wet month and that the CFS had it forecast to be wet. This year the CFS goes for a very dry month over Scotland, Ireland, Northern & South Western England and Wales, with the rest being average.
[b]Pressure[/b]
[attachment=172102:JunePressure.png]
The image above shows high pressure being high over the Atlantic region and into Western parts of the UK this would explain the average temperatures and drier weather especially for those in the West and North.
[size=5][b]July[/b][/size] - Last year it continued the unsettled theme with more rainfall, low pressure in charge and the overall mean temperature was 1.0 °C below average. The weather did get slightly warmer and drier towards the end though. For this year it may continue what June had.
[b]Temperature[/b]
[attachment=172103:JulyTemp.png]
Its looking very similar to what June has average everywhere apart from the Eastern coasts that could be just slightly cooler than average. Overall it does look to be warmer than last years July.
[b]Rainfall[/b]
[attachment=172104:JulyRainfall.png]
The CFS goes for Ireland and Southern Scotland to be very dry elsewhere either slightly drier or average.
[b]Pressure[/b]
[attachment=172105:JulyPressure.png]
Any high pressure doesn't look strong over the UK but it should mainly appear in the Atlantic. Low pressure sits to our East. This would explain why temperatures to the far East are at risk of being slightly cooler.
[size=5][b]August[/b][/size] - Last year it was again dominated by low pressure with more wind and rain and only the South East of England saw the best of the dry weather and sunshine. Temperatures were however 0.4 °C above average. August this year may be similar to last years. It is important to note confidence levels drop a bit here.
[b]Temperature[/b]
Average for the entire UK so similar to last years August temperatures.
[b]Rainfall[/b]
[attachment=172106:AugustRainfall.png]
The CFS goes for above average rainfall over Ireland, Wales and the Midlands. Elsewhere remaining average.
[b]Pressure[/b]
[attachment=172107:AugustPressure.png]
At the moment it's looking like it will be a battle between high and low pressure. High pressure mainly very strong to our East and low pressure to our West in the Atlantic. The low pressure doesn't look strong though so the high pressure may win and give the UK a decent spell of good weather.
[size=5][b]September[/b] [/size]- Last year the first half started off fine for most but the second half became more unsettled. It was another summer month with below average temperatures that were 0.7 °C below the average mean. Confidence for September is low at the moment.
[b]Temperature[/b]
Average for all of the UK so may be slightly warmer than last years.
[b]Rainfall[/b]
[attachment=172109:SeptemberRainfall.png]
Below average over Scotland and South Western England. Elsewhere average.
[b]Pressure[/b]
[attachment=172108:SeptemberPressure.png]
High pressure is to our West and East but low pressure is expected to be over the UK.
[size=5][b]Climate Simulations[/b][/size]
[attachment=172110:ClimateSim.png]
After finally getting the data needed to run the simulations the results are in for the summer, so to put the image above into simple words the results came back saying that the temperatures on average through the summer will be about 0.5°C above average. It didn't show anything very warm or cold just slightly warmer than usual overall.
[size=5][b]Overall Thoughts[/b][/size]
Starting with temperatures looking through the CFS trends and the Climate Simulator data temperatures are forecast be be either average or just slightly above average. None of them are showing anything very warm or cold. Onto rainfall and it looks like it will start off much drier than normal with June and July. August changes this as it turns average everywhere with Wales and the Midlands looking to be wetter. September takes us back to drier rainfall amounts close to average.
To sum it up in a few words, mainly drier than usual with temperatures being average or slightly above average but no exceptional warm spell expected.
I hope you enjoyed reading this forecast.
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