Entry posted by J10
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This is the latest blog for the Glastonbury festival.
Previous Runs
Forecast no 5 (08 June) - 6.0
Forecast no 6 (11 June) - 5.5
Forecast no 7 (14 June) - 4.5
Forecast no 8 (15 June) - 5.0
Forecast no 9 (16 June) - 6.0
Forecast no 10 (17 June) - 5.0
Forecast no 11 (18 June) - 5.0
Forecast no 12 (19 June) - 5.5
Forecast no 13 (20 June) - 4.5
with 0 = Dust Bowl, 10 = Mudbath
[b]Wednesday 25th[/b]
Good Agreement between the GFS runs, UKMO 06Hz run and both runs that the High Pressure will have weakened over the UK, with High Pressure of around 1024mb to the North East of the UK and a ridge of around 1020mb over the UK.
However lower pressure starting to edge in from the North West according to UKMO 12Hz, not impacting on Wednesday's weather but ominous for Thursday.Winds likely to be fairly light North Easterly, so not exactly hot, it should be mostly dry but the odd shower is possible.
GFS
[attachment=216872:GFS 21 June to 25 June 06Hz.JPG] [attachment=216873:GFS 21 June to 25 June 12Hz.JPG]
UKMO / ECM
[attachment=216883:UKMO From 21 June to 25 June 06Hz.gif] [attachment=216877:UKMO From 21 June to 25 June 12Hz b.gif]
[attachment=216905:ECM 21 June to 25 June 00Hz.png] [attachment=216899:ECM 20 June to 25 June 12Hz.png]
[b]Thursday 26th[/b]
All runs suggest lower pressure for the Thursday, however GFS keeps reasonable pressure over the UK, so again only showers at worst. UKMO/ECM introduce low pressure from the North West, bringing wet and unsettled weather here. looking at the Met Office website " Mainly fine towards the south and east on Thursday, but a steady, if rather uncertain, transition to more unsettled conditions looks likely through the start of this period. " So perhaps an OK weather day in prospect for Glastonbury.
GFS
[attachment=216870:GFS 21 June to 26 June 06Hz.JPG] [attachment=216871:GFS 21 June to 26 June 12Hz.JPG]
UKMO / ECM
[attachment=216882:UKMO From 21 June to 26 June 06Hz.gif] [attachment=216881:UKMO From 21 June to 26 June 12Hz b.gif]
[attachment=216904:ECM 21 June to 26 June 00Hz.png] [attachment=216898:ECM 20 June to 26 June 12Hz.png]
[b]Friday 27th[/b]
Out of the limb today was the GFS 06Hz which showed the High Pressure hanging on, the GFS 12Hz is very similar to ECM/UKMO Thursday charts of Low Pressure attempting to nudge in. However the most likely option is the UKMO/ECM combo which low pressure centred over the UK, this is likely to bring some spells of rain/showers for most of the UK during the day.
Obviously this is rather disappointing for Glastonbury, particularly after last nights ECM run.
GFS
[attachment=216867:GFS 21 June to 27 June 12Hz.JPG] [attachment=216868:GFS 21 June to 27 June 06Hz.JPG]
UKMO/ECM
[attachment=216880:UKMO From 21 June to 27 June 12Hz b.gif]
[attachment=216903:ECM 21 June to 27 June 00Hz.png][attachment=216897:ECM 20 June to 27 June 12Hz.png]
[b]Saturday 28th[/b]
Out of the limb today was the GFS 06Hz which showed the High Pressure hanging on, the GFS 12Hz is again a day behind and very similar to ECM/UKMO Friday charts of Low Pressure into western parts. However the most likely option is the ECM (UKMO does not go past 6 days, but it seem very likely if it did that UKMO would match today's ECM.) Again this is likely to bring some spells of rain/showers for most of the UK during the day.
GFS
[attachment=216865:GFS 21 June to 28 June 06Hz.JPG] [attachment=216866:GFS 21 June to 28 June 12Hz.JPG]
ECM
[attachment=216902:ECM 21 June to 28 June 00Hz.png] [attachment=216896:ECM 20 June to 28 June 12Hz.png]
[b]Sunday 29th[/b]
The most likely option at this stage is the ECM with the Low Pressure edging away to the east, and better and drier conditions moving in later in the day for a good end to the festival. GFS 12Hz run has more unsettled, until being under progressive compared to the ECM.
GFS
[attachment=216864:GFS 21 June to 29 June 06Hz.JPG] [attachment=216863:GFS 21 June to 29 June 12Hz.JPG]
ECM
[attachment=216901:ECM 21 June to 29 June 00Hz.png] [attachment=216895:ECM 20 June to 29 June 12Hz.png]
[b]GFS Ensembles[/b]
[attachment=216874:Ensemble Rainfall 21 June 06Hz.png] [attachment=216875:Ensemble Pressure 21 June 06Hz.png] [attachment=216876:Ensemble Temps 21 June 06Hz.png]
The 06hz run solidly has pressure at around 1020mb, however with increasing rainfall over the weekend, according to a number of the ensemble runs, Temps rising over the course of the festival.
the 12Hz run has much lower pressure with the op run an outlier, again there is increasing rainfall over the weekend, rising remaining quite cool.
[attachment=216884:Ensemble Rainfall 21 June 12Hz.png] [attachment=216885:Ensemble Pressure 21 June 12Hz.png] [attachment=216886:Ensemble Temps 21 June 12Hz.png]
[b]NOAA[/b]
The final NOAA update
[attachment=216887:500 HPA 20 June -10day.gif]
The 6-10 day fun precisely covers the period of the forecast, and again it shows an upper trough over the UK.
[b]Summary[/b]
Unfortunately the models has led us up the garden path, there were hopes that the High Pressure would hang on,this now looks very unlikely, with ECM seemingly winning the forecast battle, although its 12Hz run yesterday wasn't helpful in this regard.
it now looks like at least 2 of the festival day will be rather unsettled, certainly Friday and a part of Saturday, Thursday is a bit more uncertain.
So some rainfall expected and some mud for a time, however given recent dry conditions this may not be too bad, unless the rainfall from the unsettled weather is very heavy. So pack your wellies, but on a positive note also your sunscreen for the start and possibly end of the festival.
The rating on this basis is now back to 6.0, unfortunately.
I know my forecast is out of kilter with those elsewhere, and hopefully I am wrong it would not be the first time. However the trend is currently in one direction.
[b]Future Runs will continue giving estimates for each day of the festival, the final blog will be on Wednesday, with further updates in the main thread if necessary.[/b]
[b][b]Links [/b][/b]
Discussion thread and a bit more info [url="http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/80198-glastonbury-wed-25-to-sun-29-june-2014/page-3"]http://forum.netweat...une-2014/page-3[/url]
Previous Runs
Forecast no 5 (08 June) - 6.0
Forecast no 6 (11 June) - 5.5
Forecast no 7 (14 June) - 4.5
Forecast no 8 (15 June) - 5.0
Forecast no 9 (16 June) - 6.0
Forecast no 10 (17 June) - 5.0
Forecast no 11 (18 June) - 5.0
Forecast no 12 (19 June) - 5.5
Forecast no 13 (20 June) - 4.5
with 0 = Dust Bowl, 10 = Mudbath
[b]Wednesday 25th[/b]
Good Agreement between the GFS runs, UKMO 06Hz run and both runs that the High Pressure will have weakened over the UK, with High Pressure of around 1024mb to the North East of the UK and a ridge of around 1020mb over the UK.
However lower pressure starting to edge in from the North West according to UKMO 12Hz, not impacting on Wednesday's weather but ominous for Thursday.Winds likely to be fairly light North Easterly, so not exactly hot, it should be mostly dry but the odd shower is possible.
GFS
[attachment=216872:GFS 21 June to 25 June 06Hz.JPG] [attachment=216873:GFS 21 June to 25 June 12Hz.JPG]
UKMO / ECM
[attachment=216883:UKMO From 21 June to 25 June 06Hz.gif] [attachment=216877:UKMO From 21 June to 25 June 12Hz b.gif]
[attachment=216905:ECM 21 June to 25 June 00Hz.png] [attachment=216899:ECM 20 June to 25 June 12Hz.png]
[b]Thursday 26th[/b]
All runs suggest lower pressure for the Thursday, however GFS keeps reasonable pressure over the UK, so again only showers at worst. UKMO/ECM introduce low pressure from the North West, bringing wet and unsettled weather here. looking at the Met Office website " Mainly fine towards the south and east on Thursday, but a steady, if rather uncertain, transition to more unsettled conditions looks likely through the start of this period. " So perhaps an OK weather day in prospect for Glastonbury.
GFS
[attachment=216870:GFS 21 June to 26 June 06Hz.JPG] [attachment=216871:GFS 21 June to 26 June 12Hz.JPG]
UKMO / ECM
[attachment=216882:UKMO From 21 June to 26 June 06Hz.gif] [attachment=216881:UKMO From 21 June to 26 June 12Hz b.gif]
[attachment=216904:ECM 21 June to 26 June 00Hz.png] [attachment=216898:ECM 20 June to 26 June 12Hz.png]
[b]Friday 27th[/b]
Out of the limb today was the GFS 06Hz which showed the High Pressure hanging on, the GFS 12Hz is very similar to ECM/UKMO Thursday charts of Low Pressure attempting to nudge in. However the most likely option is the UKMO/ECM combo which low pressure centred over the UK, this is likely to bring some spells of rain/showers for most of the UK during the day.
Obviously this is rather disappointing for Glastonbury, particularly after last nights ECM run.
GFS
[attachment=216867:GFS 21 June to 27 June 12Hz.JPG] [attachment=216868:GFS 21 June to 27 June 06Hz.JPG]
UKMO/ECM
[attachment=216880:UKMO From 21 June to 27 June 12Hz b.gif]
[attachment=216903:ECM 21 June to 27 June 00Hz.png][attachment=216897:ECM 20 June to 27 June 12Hz.png]
[b]Saturday 28th[/b]
Out of the limb today was the GFS 06Hz which showed the High Pressure hanging on, the GFS 12Hz is again a day behind and very similar to ECM/UKMO Friday charts of Low Pressure into western parts. However the most likely option is the ECM (UKMO does not go past 6 days, but it seem very likely if it did that UKMO would match today's ECM.) Again this is likely to bring some spells of rain/showers for most of the UK during the day.
GFS
[attachment=216865:GFS 21 June to 28 June 06Hz.JPG] [attachment=216866:GFS 21 June to 28 June 12Hz.JPG]
ECM
[attachment=216902:ECM 21 June to 28 June 00Hz.png] [attachment=216896:ECM 20 June to 28 June 12Hz.png]
[b]Sunday 29th[/b]
The most likely option at this stage is the ECM with the Low Pressure edging away to the east, and better and drier conditions moving in later in the day for a good end to the festival. GFS 12Hz run has more unsettled, until being under progressive compared to the ECM.
GFS
[attachment=216864:GFS 21 June to 29 June 06Hz.JPG] [attachment=216863:GFS 21 June to 29 June 12Hz.JPG]
ECM
[attachment=216901:ECM 21 June to 29 June 00Hz.png] [attachment=216895:ECM 20 June to 29 June 12Hz.png]
[b]GFS Ensembles[/b]
[attachment=216874:Ensemble Rainfall 21 June 06Hz.png] [attachment=216875:Ensemble Pressure 21 June 06Hz.png] [attachment=216876:Ensemble Temps 21 June 06Hz.png]
The 06hz run solidly has pressure at around 1020mb, however with increasing rainfall over the weekend, according to a number of the ensemble runs, Temps rising over the course of the festival.
the 12Hz run has much lower pressure with the op run an outlier, again there is increasing rainfall over the weekend, rising remaining quite cool.
[attachment=216884:Ensemble Rainfall 21 June 12Hz.png] [attachment=216885:Ensemble Pressure 21 June 12Hz.png] [attachment=216886:Ensemble Temps 21 June 12Hz.png]
[b]NOAA[/b]
The final NOAA update
[attachment=216887:500 HPA 20 June -10day.gif]
The 6-10 day fun precisely covers the period of the forecast, and again it shows an upper trough over the UK.
[b]Summary[/b]
Unfortunately the models has led us up the garden path, there were hopes that the High Pressure would hang on,this now looks very unlikely, with ECM seemingly winning the forecast battle, although its 12Hz run yesterday wasn't helpful in this regard.
it now looks like at least 2 of the festival day will be rather unsettled, certainly Friday and a part of Saturday, Thursday is a bit more uncertain.
So some rainfall expected and some mud for a time, however given recent dry conditions this may not be too bad, unless the rainfall from the unsettled weather is very heavy. So pack your wellies, but on a positive note also your sunscreen for the start and possibly end of the festival.
The rating on this basis is now back to 6.0, unfortunately.
I know my forecast is out of kilter with those elsewhere, and hopefully I am wrong it would not be the first time. However the trend is currently in one direction.
[b]Future Runs will continue giving estimates for each day of the festival, the final blog will be on Wednesday, with further updates in the main thread if necessary.[/b]
[b][b]Links [/b][/b]
Discussion thread and a bit more info [url="http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/80198-glastonbury-wed-25-to-sun-29-june-2014/page-3"]http://forum.netweat...une-2014/page-3[/url]
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