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Glastonbury Forecast 17 - 23rd June

Posted by J10, in Glastonbury 2013 23 June 2013 · 4,465 views

glastonbury 2013 heatwave dustbowl mudbath
There has been some rain on the Glastonbury Site over the past 24 hours, luckily the worst of the rain missed the site, with conditions underfoot remaining good.

As you more closer to the timings of any forecast, you can move from the overlying synoptic pattern to more specific weather details, and as such I will from now from break down the forecasts by day for the first time, and try to give a bit more detail, although I will keep the weekend a bit more "broad brush" for the time being.

Overview
A few more showers are possible on site today but after this pressure slowly building up from the south west and remaining dry with the outside chance of a shower on Tuesday, but not amounting to anything.
Wednesday 26 June
High Pressure has edged over the UK, with NW winds expected over Glastonbury, pressure is expected to be around 1030mb, The odd shower is possible into the afternoon according to GFS however most of the day is set to be sunny or at least bright with sunny intervals. Temps are expected to be in high teens/low 20s, perhaps just about hitting 21-22c.

Morning Runs (L-R, UKM, ECM, GFS, GEFS)
UKM 23a 72.gif ECM 23a 72.gif GFS 23 06 1.JPG GEFS 23a 1.png

Afternoon Runs (L-R, UKM, ECM, GFS, GEFS)
UKM 23b 72.gif Attached Image GFS 23 12 1.JPG Attached Image

Thursday 27 June
High Pressure continues to edge eastwards, with winds NW over Glastonbury, perhaps veering W later, pressure again expected to be aorund 1030mb. Even though High Pressure is expected, a weather front is embedded within the High Pressure. The heaviest of the rain associated with it is forecast for Northern parts of England and Scotland with only some patchy rain is expected for Glastonbury. At this moment, timings are changing from run to run as is the extent to which it will push south. Currently with the best of bright or sunny weather in the morning, with more in the way of cloud later in the day together with any patchy precipitation for Glastonbury.
Temps are expected to be around 18-20c.

Morning Runs (L-R, UKM, ECM, GFS)
UKM 23a 96.gif ECM 23a 96.gif GFS 23 06 2.JPG

Afternoon Runs (L-R, UKM, ECM, GFS)
UKM 23b 96.gif Attached Image GFS 23 12 2.JPG

Friday 28 June
Slight variances in the models at this point, but the general theme is for High Pressure to still be close by, with pressure around 1025-1030mb, wind between a W to NW direction. The general theme in the forecast for Friday, is slowly getting better after perhaps a damp start, depending how quickly "Thursdays" front passes through. Into the afternoon it looks dry or mostly dry with increasing brightness after a cloudy start. Temps could reach 20-21c into the afternoon, perhaps a bit higher if the brightness turns into late afternoon sunny spells.

Morning Runs (L-R, UKM, ECM, GFS)
UKM 23a 120.gif ECM 23a 120.gif GFS 23 06 3.JPG

(L-R, UKM, ECM, GFS)
UKM 23b 120.gif Attached Image GFS 23 12 3.JPG
Weekend
Again a little bit of uncertainty over the weekend, the chances of low pressure making it rather unsettled are reducing run by run, GFS is the least keen to introduce the highest pressure with pressure around 1020-1025mb, with UKMO ridging High Pressure closer to the UK, with ECM having HP centred over the UK on Sunday (1030mb), So GFS is the most likely to be slightly unsettled, ECM the most settled, and a very decent weekend in prospect.

Although there may be the odd weather front again with NW winds, it is looking mostly dry over the weekend with decent amounts of sunshine, GFS has temps of 21c on Saturday, and perhaps even 23-24c on Sunday.

Morning Runs for Saturday (L-R, UKM, ECM, GFS)
UKM 23a 144.gif ECM 23a 144.gif GFS 23 06 4.JPG

Afternoon Runs for Saturday (L-R, UKM, ECM, GFS)
UKM 23b 144.gif Attached Image GFS 23 12 4.JPG

Morning Runs for Sunday (L-R, ECM, GFS, GEFS)
Attached Image GFS 23 06 5.JPG GEFS 23a 2.png

Afternoon Runs for Sunday (L-R, ECM, GFS, GEFS)
Attached Image Attached Image Attached Image
Overall
The total rainfall charts are very consistent with the lack of rainfall, both runs go for around 5-6mm of rainfall in the next 6 days. Equally the ensembles also support a very dry festival.
Rmgfs144sum 23 1.gif Rmgfs144sum 23 2.gif GEFS 23a 4.png Attached Image
The ensembles continue to go a pressure rise, however the pressure fall late next week is quicker than before, but generally stabilising above 1020mb.
GEFS 23a 3.png Attached Image

Summary
From a synoptic point of view, good agreement in high pressure building steadily next week to around 1030mb, however GFS then reduces the pressure a bit before the weekend , before slowly rebuilding by Sunday, Both ECM and UKMO keep the pressure high across the uK, meaning slightly more settled conditions.
Mostly Dry, with rainfall likely to be under 5-6mm, not entirely sunny, with quite a lot of cloud on Thursday especially and to an extent Friday but bright at least on most other days. Temps looking quite decent as well, high teens to low 20s, possibly a bit warmer into the weekend.

Ratings :-
Yesterday in brackets
Festival Dryness (0= washout, 10=dry) 7.5/10 (7.5/10) Perhaps a little rain Thursday into Friday, but total rainfall over the festival looking small including over the weekend.
Ground Mudbath Rating (0=mudbath, 10 = dustbowl) 7.5/10 (7.5/10) Despite a bit of rain this weekend, things looking pretty good.
Heatwave rating (0 = freezing, 10 = heatwave), 7/10 (6.5/10) With upper air temps set to rise, Temps are set to be in the 20s, perhaps mid 20s over the weekend.

Newspaper Taglines
Looking mostly Dry and settled, although perhaps not bone dry, a good amount of bright / sunny weather can be expected, and quite warm in any sunshine, perhaps very warm over the weekend. Still bring those hired wellies and a brolly just in case.

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Thanks Jackone.  Starting to feel confident that I will get by with just boots rather than wellies. All in all I'm happy.  Didn;t want a heatwave as that brings its own problems with tents so this is a good forecast. Warm enough to walk around and not have to wear layers of clothes and cool enough to sit in whatever sun appears. Tell me it won;t change significantly!

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