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Glastonbury Forecast 14 - 20th June

Posted by J10, 20 June 2013 · 5,904 views

washout heatwave dustbowl glastonbury 2013
Time for the latest update,

Please get involved on the dedicated Glastonbury forecast thread on the main forum here

http://forum.netweat...-4#entry2714670

Forecast models notably GFS had forecast in the region of 25-50mm of rain for the Glastonbury area over the past few days, needless to say this has not remotely occurred, this will have big implications going forward.

General Theme

There will be unsettled weather across the UK on Saturday as a Low Pressure system moves eastwards across the UK and this will provide some moderate rainfall for Glastonbury. On Sunday the low pressure system is set to weaken and move steadily North Eastwards, south western pars of the UK are likely to have some of the best weather, but some showers are still possible, these becoming increasing isolated and lighter as the day progresses.
High Pressure is slowly set to push in from the South West next week, giving mostly dry and settled conditions, how dominant this becomes and whether it will last until the end of the festival, will be discussed as per each model run later.

GFS Operational Runs

Both runs show pressure slowly ridging up from the South West on Monday (1024mb), the ridge continues to edge further north by Wednesday, with the 06Hz run pushing it a bit further north, the 12Hz run has low pressure a bit closer to the North West of the UK. By Friday, the 06Hz has edged the low pressure closer to the NW of the UK with a weak ridge over the UK, while the 12Hz has an area of High Pressure coving southern UK. Sunday sees low pressure over the UK on Sunday, while the 12Hz keeps a ridge of High Pressure over Southern and Western areas, a bit a little bit unsettled to the North East.

In terms of rainfall from Monday onwards both runs are pretty dry from the Monday through to the Thursday with only the off shower. The 06Hz run has a little bit or rain forecast on Firday with perhaps something a little bit more substantial on the Sunday. The 12Hz shows a little bit of rain over the weekend, but not rally amounting to that much.

Charts shown in order 06Hz (Mon 24 June, Wed 26 June, Fri 28 June and Sun 30 June)
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Charts shown in order 12Hz (Mon 24 June, Wed 26 June, Fri 28 June and Sun 30 June)
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Rainfall Next 6 days
The 06Hz run has 7-8mm of rain forecast, the 12Hz run shows around 10mm of rain, nothing substantial really.

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GFS Ensembles
Both sets of ensembles look largely dry, especially the 12Hz run, pressure is set to rise steadily next week to around 1030mb before dropping back to around 1020mb towards the end of the festival, the 12Hz is slower with this pressure drop off, there are very few rainfall spikes, so while the festival may not be bone dry, no real significant rain is expected, any rain that does fall is more likely over the weekend.

06Hz run
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12Hz run
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ECM

Both runs show pressure slowly ridging up from the South West on Monday (1025mb), the ridge extends up to Northern Scandinavia by Wednesday, and while the 12Hz had a more robust feel, both runs make far more of the ridge than GFS, both runs also keep any low pressure further away to the North West. Friday sees High Pressure over southern areas in both runs with Low Pressure to the North West, the 06Hz run has the High Pressure a bit further north. For the weekend The 06Hz run looks to keep low pressure away to the North East, while the 12Hz run moves it a bit further south, so a greater chance of something more unsettled to end the festival with the 12Hz run, with low pressure and NW winds on this run. But generally though a mostly dry festival before this.

Charts shown in order 00Hz (Mon 24 June, Wed 26 June, Fri 28 June and Sun 30 June)

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Charts shown in order 12Hz (Mon 24 June, Wed 26 June, Fri 28 June and Sun 30 June)

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Upper Charts
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Continues to go with the theme of High Pressure over western or close to western areas.
Summary
The pre festival rainfall is now forecast to be 10mm or less, and together with most of the festival looking dry, things are looking up. Pressure is steadily set to build over the UK from the South West from Monday onwards, with a good deal of settled weather expected until probably Friday. Some op runs continue to go for unsettled weather towards the festival weekend and that is something to keep an eye in future runs, the ensembles show a slow but steady fall back in pressure over the weekend, but no support for things to break down.

Ratings :-

Festival Dryness (0= washout, 10=dry) 7/10 Looking Dry for the start of the festival, an increased risk of some rain over the weekend
Ground Mudbath Rating (0=mudbath, 10 = dustbowl) 6/10 With the site currently in good condition and low to moderate at worst rainfall expected between now and at least next Friday, the risk of a mud bath is reduced significantly from recent days.
Heatwave rating (0 = freezing, 10 = heatwave), 5.5/10 Currently temps mid teens/low 20s, perhaps a bit cooler over the weekend

Newspaper Taglines
Bring your suncream and sunglasses as it may well be a mostly dry festival, especially to start, perhaps hire those wellies as you may be able to get your money back on unused goods.

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