Entry posted by J10
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[b]Summary[/b]
There has been further heavy snow across higher parts of the Alps leading to bumper conditions in many places, further snowfall is also likely in many places for the next few days. Thereafter it is likely to turn sunny and warm, great conditions for skiing, but not good, for the snow pack, so some thawing is likely and there may be an avalanche risk.
[url="http://www.skiclub.co.uk/skiclub/snowreports/default.aspx"]http://www.skiclub.c...ts/default.aspx[/url]
[u][url="http://www.snow-forecast.com/pages/tips_full"]http://www.snow-fore...pages/tips_full[/url][/u]
[b]Synoptic Patterns and Progression[/b]
As per last week we seem to be stuck in a +NAO pattern, with low pressure over the Northern Latitudes however there is slightly higher pressure around Svalbard, with High Pressure further north ,there is a temporary Surface High over Greenland with the Polar Vortex over Western Greenland and especially Canada. There is low pressure over Scandinavia feeding in cool or cold North Westerly winds over much of Central Europe (including the Alps). The Azores High has again ridged a long way North East edging into western Europe including the UK, starting to feed in mild to very mild over the UK after a cool start. In fact the pattern is so similar to Last Friday, I could have kept last Friday's summary and it wouldn't have been that far out.
[attachment=126615:Current 6th Jan.JPG]
Saturday and Sunday sees the pattern edge eastwards, winds temporarily turning NW wards over the UK and the NE flank of the Azores High, so turning cooler over NE parts of the UK on Saturday, but milder again by Sunday as winds turn back to move a westerly. Generally milder for NW Europe though, staying cool over Central and Northern areas of Mainland Europe including the Alps, and also staying cool or cold over Scandinavia.
[attachment=126602:6 Jan +24.JPG] [attachment=126604:6 Jan +48.JPG]
By Monday, the Azores High has pushes further North East to be centered just off the west coast of France, this very much giving settled conditions for the UK and NW Europe, mostly mild as well, but temporarily cooler in N Scotland. To the East, the Alps hanging on to the colder weather further east, with much of Eastern Europe cold with N to NE Winds. Low Pressure very much in control over the Northern latitudes covering Canada to Norway, cool over Southern Scandinavia with westerly winds, but turning increasingly cold over Northern Scandinavia. Very much a +NAO pattern at this stage.
[attachment=126606:6 Jan +72.JPG]
Tuesday sees the High Pressure build over NW Europe even further, so settled and mild over the UK and NW Europe, the Alps continues to be on edge of the cold to the east, and mild to the west. Cool over Central Europe but still cold to the East. SW winds spreading across Scandinavia, mild for the south, and remaining very cold into N and especially NE Scandinavia.
[attachment=126608:6 Jan +96.JPG]
Wednesday to Friday, sees the High Pressure continue to push east, with mild Tropical Maritime air now pretty much covering all of Europe, so very settled conditions for the most part. The Exception being Northern Scandinavia where some parts should be cool and it should remain cold over Northern districts.
[attachment=126610:6 Jan +120.JPG] [attachment=126612:6 Jan +144.JPG] [attachment=126614:6 Jan +168.JPG]
[b]Alps Detail[/b]
[b]Freezing Levels (noon)[/b]
[b]Sat 7 Jan - [/b]600m to 800m (E Austria), 1200m to 1500m (Generally)
[b]Sun 8 Jan - [/b]800m to 1000m (North), 1000m to 1400m (South), 2000m (SW Italy)
[b]Mon 9 Jan - [/b]800m to 1000m (North), 1000m to 1400m (South)
[b]Tue 10 Jan - [/b]800m to 1000m (E Austria), Over 2000m (South and West), 1200m to 1500m Switzerland
[b]Wed 11 Jan - [/b]2000m to 3000m (West), 600m to 1600 (Austria, east to west)
[b]Thur 12 Jan - [/b]2000m to 2200m (East), 2400m to 2600m (West)
[b]Fri 13 Jan -[/b] 2200m to 2500m (Generally)
[b]Freezing Levels (6am)[/b]
[b]Sat 7 Jan -[/b] 0 to 300m (Generally), 600m to 1200m (Italy)
[b]Sun 8 Jan - [/b]600m to 900m (Generally), 600m to 2100m (Italy)
[b]Mon 9 Jan - [/b]0 to 600m (Generally), 800m to 1200m (Italy)
[b]Tue 10 Jan - [/b]300m to 900m (Generally), 1200m to 1800m (Italy)
[b]Wed 11 Jan - [/b]0 to 300m (Generally), 300m to 1500m (Italy)
[b]Thur 12 Jan -[/b] 0 to 600m (Generally), 600m-1200m (S parts of Austria and Switzerland),1200m to 2400m (Italy)
[b]Fri 13 Jan[/b] - Variable
[b]850 Hpa Temps (noon)[/b]
[b]Sat 7 Jan - [/b]0 to +3 in West, -4 to -5c in East
[b]Sun 8 Jan - [/b]-2 to -5c (North), 0 to +2 (South), up to +5c (W Italy)
[b]Mon 9 Jan - [/b]0 to -2 in West, -4 to -5c in East
[b]Tue 10 Jan -[/b] 0 to -3c in West, -3 to -7c in East, +2 to +5c Italy
[b]Wed 11 Jan - [/b]-2c (East) to +3c (West)
[b]Thur 12 Jan -[/b]+1 to +4c Generally
[b]Fri 13 Jan[/b] - +3 to +4c Generally
[b]Summary[/b]
[b]Sat [/b]After a mostly dry and settled start, precipitation is likely to edge in from the North West later, and become moderate over Switzerland an Austria by evening and the early overnight period. (SL around 1200m)
[attachment=126601:6 Jan +24 Alps.JPG]
[b]Sun[/b] The moderate snow continuing to morning over Switzerland and Austria. The precipitation continuing through the day, the Snow Level rising to around 800m midday, but falling back to around 300-500m by evening. (20cm of fresh snow possible in places)
[attachment=126603:6 Jan +48 Alps.JPG]
[b]Mon [/b]The snow continuing overnight but slowly becoming confined to Austria by morning, finally by mid afternoon the precipitation slowly fading away (SL never above 800m, generally cool and settled over the Alps
[attachment=126605:6 Jan +72 Alps.JPG]
[b]Tue [/b]Settled over much of the Alps, with a lot of sunny weather and generally turning milder the exception being Austria, where precipitation will develop again overnight, and continue until afternoon, it is likely to be concentrated towards NW Austria, SL around 800m (Max)
[attachment=126607:6 Jan +96 Alps.JPG]
[b]Wed[/b] Looks Dry and Sunny, bitterly cold overnight, milder in the west by day.
[attachment=126609:6 Jan +120 Alps.JPG]
[b]Thur and Fri[/b] Looks Dry and Sunny, mild by day, Bitterly cold overnight.
[attachment=126611:6 Jan +144 Alps.JPG] [attachment=126613:6 Jan +168 Alps.JPG]
There has been further heavy snow across higher parts of the Alps leading to bumper conditions in many places, further snowfall is also likely in many places for the next few days. Thereafter it is likely to turn sunny and warm, great conditions for skiing, but not good, for the snow pack, so some thawing is likely and there may be an avalanche risk.
[url="http://www.skiclub.co.uk/skiclub/snowreports/default.aspx"]http://www.skiclub.c...ts/default.aspx[/url]
[u][url="http://www.snow-forecast.com/pages/tips_full"]http://www.snow-fore...pages/tips_full[/url][/u]
[b]Synoptic Patterns and Progression[/b]
As per last week we seem to be stuck in a +NAO pattern, with low pressure over the Northern Latitudes however there is slightly higher pressure around Svalbard, with High Pressure further north ,there is a temporary Surface High over Greenland with the Polar Vortex over Western Greenland and especially Canada. There is low pressure over Scandinavia feeding in cool or cold North Westerly winds over much of Central Europe (including the Alps). The Azores High has again ridged a long way North East edging into western Europe including the UK, starting to feed in mild to very mild over the UK after a cool start. In fact the pattern is so similar to Last Friday, I could have kept last Friday's summary and it wouldn't have been that far out.
[attachment=126615:Current 6th Jan.JPG]
Saturday and Sunday sees the pattern edge eastwards, winds temporarily turning NW wards over the UK and the NE flank of the Azores High, so turning cooler over NE parts of the UK on Saturday, but milder again by Sunday as winds turn back to move a westerly. Generally milder for NW Europe though, staying cool over Central and Northern areas of Mainland Europe including the Alps, and also staying cool or cold over Scandinavia.
[attachment=126602:6 Jan +24.JPG] [attachment=126604:6 Jan +48.JPG]
By Monday, the Azores High has pushes further North East to be centered just off the west coast of France, this very much giving settled conditions for the UK and NW Europe, mostly mild as well, but temporarily cooler in N Scotland. To the East, the Alps hanging on to the colder weather further east, with much of Eastern Europe cold with N to NE Winds. Low Pressure very much in control over the Northern latitudes covering Canada to Norway, cool over Southern Scandinavia with westerly winds, but turning increasingly cold over Northern Scandinavia. Very much a +NAO pattern at this stage.
[attachment=126606:6 Jan +72.JPG]
Tuesday sees the High Pressure build over NW Europe even further, so settled and mild over the UK and NW Europe, the Alps continues to be on edge of the cold to the east, and mild to the west. Cool over Central Europe but still cold to the East. SW winds spreading across Scandinavia, mild for the south, and remaining very cold into N and especially NE Scandinavia.
[attachment=126608:6 Jan +96.JPG]
Wednesday to Friday, sees the High Pressure continue to push east, with mild Tropical Maritime air now pretty much covering all of Europe, so very settled conditions for the most part. The Exception being Northern Scandinavia where some parts should be cool and it should remain cold over Northern districts.
[attachment=126610:6 Jan +120.JPG] [attachment=126612:6 Jan +144.JPG] [attachment=126614:6 Jan +168.JPG]
[b]Alps Detail[/b]
[b]Freezing Levels (noon)[/b]
[b]Sat 7 Jan - [/b]600m to 800m (E Austria), 1200m to 1500m (Generally)
[b]Sun 8 Jan - [/b]800m to 1000m (North), 1000m to 1400m (South), 2000m (SW Italy)
[b]Mon 9 Jan - [/b]800m to 1000m (North), 1000m to 1400m (South)
[b]Tue 10 Jan - [/b]800m to 1000m (E Austria), Over 2000m (South and West), 1200m to 1500m Switzerland
[b]Wed 11 Jan - [/b]2000m to 3000m (West), 600m to 1600 (Austria, east to west)
[b]Thur 12 Jan - [/b]2000m to 2200m (East), 2400m to 2600m (West)
[b]Fri 13 Jan -[/b] 2200m to 2500m (Generally)
[b]Freezing Levels (6am)[/b]
[b]Sat 7 Jan -[/b] 0 to 300m (Generally), 600m to 1200m (Italy)
[b]Sun 8 Jan - [/b]600m to 900m (Generally), 600m to 2100m (Italy)
[b]Mon 9 Jan - [/b]0 to 600m (Generally), 800m to 1200m (Italy)
[b]Tue 10 Jan - [/b]300m to 900m (Generally), 1200m to 1800m (Italy)
[b]Wed 11 Jan - [/b]0 to 300m (Generally), 300m to 1500m (Italy)
[b]Thur 12 Jan -[/b] 0 to 600m (Generally), 600m-1200m (S parts of Austria and Switzerland),1200m to 2400m (Italy)
[b]Fri 13 Jan[/b] - Variable
[b]850 Hpa Temps (noon)[/b]
[b]Sat 7 Jan - [/b]0 to +3 in West, -4 to -5c in East
[b]Sun 8 Jan - [/b]-2 to -5c (North), 0 to +2 (South), up to +5c (W Italy)
[b]Mon 9 Jan - [/b]0 to -2 in West, -4 to -5c in East
[b]Tue 10 Jan -[/b] 0 to -3c in West, -3 to -7c in East, +2 to +5c Italy
[b]Wed 11 Jan - [/b]-2c (East) to +3c (West)
[b]Thur 12 Jan -[/b]+1 to +4c Generally
[b]Fri 13 Jan[/b] - +3 to +4c Generally
[b]Summary[/b]
[b]Sat [/b]After a mostly dry and settled start, precipitation is likely to edge in from the North West later, and become moderate over Switzerland an Austria by evening and the early overnight period. (SL around 1200m)
[attachment=126601:6 Jan +24 Alps.JPG]
[b]Sun[/b] The moderate snow continuing to morning over Switzerland and Austria. The precipitation continuing through the day, the Snow Level rising to around 800m midday, but falling back to around 300-500m by evening. (20cm of fresh snow possible in places)
[attachment=126603:6 Jan +48 Alps.JPG]
[b]Mon [/b]The snow continuing overnight but slowly becoming confined to Austria by morning, finally by mid afternoon the precipitation slowly fading away (SL never above 800m, generally cool and settled over the Alps
[attachment=126605:6 Jan +72 Alps.JPG]
[b]Tue [/b]Settled over much of the Alps, with a lot of sunny weather and generally turning milder the exception being Austria, where precipitation will develop again overnight, and continue until afternoon, it is likely to be concentrated towards NW Austria, SL around 800m (Max)
[attachment=126607:6 Jan +96 Alps.JPG]
[b]Wed[/b] Looks Dry and Sunny, bitterly cold overnight, milder in the west by day.
[attachment=126609:6 Jan +120 Alps.JPG]
[b]Thur and Fri[/b] Looks Dry and Sunny, mild by day, Bitterly cold overnight.
[attachment=126611:6 Jan +144 Alps.JPG] [attachment=126613:6 Jan +168 Alps.JPG]
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