So this is the final full blog for Glastonbury 2015, ahead of the gates opening tomorrow.
[b]Daily forecasts [/b]
[size=3][b]Wednesday 24th June[/b][/size]
[attachment=253786:GFS 23rd June 12Hz + 24.JPG]
Mostly Fine and Dry with a small ridge of High Pressure over Southern parts of the UK. Sunny to start, a bit more cloudy in the afternoon. Temps low 20s,
[b][size=3]Thursday 25 June[/size][/b]
[attachment=253785:GFS 23rd June 12Hz + 48.JPG]
Very similar conditions to those of Wednes
Well we are nearly there, and for some of you this will be the last Glastonbury blog you read, so enjoy Glastonbury whatever the weather.
[b]Run up to festival[/b]
The promised rain arrived in Glastonbury, a little earlier than anticipated and looking at radar returns close to 10mm of rain fell in the past 24 hours.
Which according to people on site, hasn't made things too wet.
[b]Daily forecasts [/b]
[size=3][b]Wednesday 24th June[/b][/size]
As per recent forecast low Pressure remai
This is the 11th blog, and there have some real ups and downs.
The 4th blog (Issued 10 June) was mostly positive.
The 5th blog (Issued 13 June) was positive and scored 3 out of 10 on the Dustbowl - Mudbath rating. Things were looking positive.
The 6th blog (Issued 15 June) was slightly positive and scored 4.5 out of 10 on the Dustbowl - Mudbath rating.
The 7th blog (Issued 17 June) was slightly negative and scored 6.0 out of 10 on the Dustbowl - Mudbath rating.
The 8th blog (Issued 18 Jun
This is the 10th forecast blog for Glastonbury 2015.
The 4th blog (Issued 10 June) was mostly positive.
The 5th blog (Issued 13 June) was positive and scored 3 out of 10 on the Dustbowl - Mudbath rating. Things were looking positive.
The 6th blog (Issued 15 June) was slightly positive and scored 4.5 out of 10 on the Dustbowl - Mudbath rating.
The 7th blog (Issued 17 June) was slightly negative and scored 6.0 out of 10 on the Dustbowl - Mudbath rating.
The 8th blog (Issued 18 June) was sli
This is the 9th forecast blog for Glastonbury 2015.
The 4th blog (Issued 10 June) was mostly positive.
The 5th blog (Issued 13 June) was positive and scored 3 out of 10 on the Dustbowl - Mudbath rating. Things were looking positive.
The 6th blog (Issued 15 June) was slightly positive and scored 4.5 out of 10 on the Dustbowl - Mudbath rating.
The 7th blog (Issued 17 June) was slightly negative and scored 6.0 out of 10 on the Dustbowl - Mudbath rating.
The 8th blog (Issued 18 June) was slig
This is the 8th forecast blog for Glastonbury 2015.
The 4th blog (Issued 10 June) was mostly positive.
The 5th blog (Issued 13 June) was positive and scored 3 out of 10 on the Dustbowl - Mudbath rating. Things were looking positive.
The 6th blog (Issued 15 June) was slightly positive and scored 4.5 out of 10 on the Dustbowl - Mudbath rating.
The 7th blog (Issued 17 June) was slightly negative and scored 6.0 out of 10 on the Dustbowl - Mudbath rating.
So a definite trend towards a wet fe
This is the 7th forecast blog for Glastonbury 2015.
The 4th blog (Issued 10 June) was mostly positive.
The 5th blog (Issued 13 June) was positive and scored 3 out of 10 on the Dustbowl - Mudbath rating. Things were looking positive.
The 6th blog (Issued 15 June) was slightly positive and scored 4.5 out of 10 on the Dustbowl - Mudbath rating.
This forecast will contain charts for the past 2 days, and most of these charts were already posted in the main thread yesterday.
As we move clos
This is the 6th forecast blog for Glastonbury 2015.
The 4th blog (Issued 10 June) was mostly positive.
The 5th blog (Issued 13 June) was positive and scored 3 out of 10 on the Dustbowl - Mudbath rating. Things were looking positive.
This forecast will be split into 3 main sources
[b]1. Prognostic Charts at 6-10 day and 8-14 day [from NOAA][/b]
[attachment=253140:610day.03 from 14 June.gif] [attachment=253149:610day.03 from 15 June.gif]
[attachment=253141:814day.03 from 14 June.gif]
This is the 5th forecast blog for Glastonbury 2015.
The previous blog (Issued 10 June) was mostly positive.
IMO a definite trend is starting to emerge, which I will outline later, of course whether or not this is accurate, time will tell.
This forecast will be split into 2 main sources
[b]1. Prognostic Charts at 6-10 day and 8-14 day [from NOAA][/b]
The 6-10 day chart at this poll covers the immediate run up to the festival while the 8-14 day charts covers the festival period itse
The first midweek update concentrating on the shorter term models,
This forecast will contain information from 2 sources.
[b]1. Prognostic Charts at 6-10 day and 8-14 day [from NOAA][/b]
[b]6-10 day [/b]
[attachment=252588:610day.03 from 7 June.gif] [attachment=252606:610day.03 from 8 June.gif] [attachment=252589:610day.03 from 9 June.gif] [attachment=252590:610day.03 from 10 June.gif]
A definite trend for Pressure to build over the UK and especially towards the south west keeping con
This is the 3rd blog for the 2015 Glastonbury festival [24 to 28 June], the chase continues.
This weeks forecast is a mix of the long term term models used previously (mainly CFS) and shorter term models as we move as these can now start to predict the run up to the festival period.
This weeks forecast methods
1. CFS Monthly Charts updated weekly [From Net Weather Extra]
2. CFS Daily Charts updated daily [From Net Weather Extra]
3. CFS Monthly Charts updated weekly [From Meteociel.com
This is the second blog for the 2015 Glastonbury festival [24 to 28 June], the roller coaster continues.
At this stage we are still using long term models, but from next week the beginning of the festival period is coming into long term GFS range, so this blog will reflect that.
However, for this week we are using the same models as last week.
1. CFS Monthly Charts updated weekly [From Net Weather Extra]
2. CFS Daily Charts updated daily [From Net Weather Extra]
3. CFS Monthly Charts
This is the first blog for the 2015 Glastonbury festival [24 to 28 June], welcome to the roller coaster.
At this stage were are still using long term models, so should be taken with a cellar full of salt, Nevertheless here we go.
[b]Sources of Information[/b]
1. CFS Monthly Charts updated weekly [From Net Weather Extra]
2. CFS Daily Charts updated daily [From Net Weather Extra]
3. CFS Monthly Charts updated weekly [From Meteociel.com]
One thing you may be thinking why use July foreca
[size=4][font=arial][b]Introduction [/b][/font][/size]
[size=4][font=arial]It is always strange at this time of year, on the one hand it seems another long winter on the other hand it has flown by.
From the outside, it seems there was a fairer distribution of snow this year than other years. Quite a lot of snow has fallen from late December onwards, but there have been notable mild weather at times, which has left some lower slopes in particular with snow shortages at times.
The other notab
[size=4][font=arial]I must start by expressing the shock of the terrible events of the plane crash over the Alps earlier this week. The whole event is a terrible tragedy and our thoughts go out to all those effected.
[b]Summary[/b]
Moving on to the far less important matter of snow in the Alps, it has been a rather mixed week, with further snow at higher slopes, and much milder conditions lower down, In many ways classic early spring conditions.
These rather mixed conditions are set to cont
[b]Summary[/b]
There was some snow at the start of the week, although not quite as much as forecast.
However, towards the end of week things turned a far bit milder, As we move into late March, no surprise to see spring conditions really starting to take hold. The best conditions as ever higher up the slopes
[b]Synoptics [/b]
At this time of year in the Alps, you can have spring, almost summer like conditions one day, only to be taken back to winter with a vengeance the following day, an
[size=3][font=arial][b]Summary[/b][/font][/size]
[size=3][font=arial]As we move into March things have warmed up somewhat, with spring snow conditions across the Alps, however good snow remains at altitude. Of course this mean that risk of avalanches remains. [/font][/size]
[size=3][font=arial][b]Synoptics [/b][/font][/size]
[size=3][font=arial]The weekend starts with High Pressure centred over Scandinavia and North East Europe. [/font][/size]
[size=3][font=arial]Winds are Northern East
[size=4][font=arial][b]Summary[/b][/font]
Conditions have not been that bad over the Alps over the past week, with some milder weather over the weekend, however it has turned colder over the past couple of days with some further heavy snow in places.
[font=arial][b]Synoptics[/b][/font]
Currently there is High Pressure centered just to the north of the Alps. with a mild Tropical Maritime airmass on SW winds edging in for NW Europe and this turning things milder for the western alps, but st
[size=4][font=arial][b]Summary[/b][/font][/size]
There has been further snow this week, and conditions are generally very good with abundant powder. However there are concerns over avalanches and these cannot be overlooked.
The start of the season was pretty poor, which meant any icy base formed than than hard packed snow as a result the snow above this is not bound allowing snow to slide over the ice base, hence a very high risk of avalanches. Apologies for my poor explanation but hopefully
[b]Summary[/b]
There was some good snowfall over parts of the Alps last weekend with some parts of Northern Italy seeing 1m of snow. However it was not quite as extensive as forecast with parts of Switzerland, not doing as well as expected. Generally though there are good conditions over the Alps albeit with the recent sunny and warm weather in the afternoon, giving some afternoon spring snow conditions.
[b]Synoptics[/b]
[size=3][font=arial]Currently over the Alps there are South Wester
[b][font=arial]Summary[/font][/b]
Some great conditions to go skiing in recent days, with warm sunshine, this has had an impact on slopes especially lower down, and fresh powder becoming difficult to find.
[b]Synoptics[/b]
[font=arial]The weekend starts with Low pressure over the UK and this feeding in SW winds for the Alps on its eastward edge. Over the weekend, the low Pressure moving closer to the Alps, making things increasingly unsettled. 850Hpa temps generally just below freezing.[/fo
[size=3][b]Summary[/b]
The recent weeks have seen a continuous improvement across the Alps with good snow levels in most places.
[b]Synoptics [/b]
The current pattern is High Pressure over the UK, with very cold East to North Easterly winds over the Alps. the pattern similar for Monday, and turning slightly less cold.
[attachment=244445:Alps 8 Feb.JPG] [attachment=244446:Alps 8 Feb + 24.JPG]
The High Pressure edges further South East from Tuesday, with the cold feed from the East
[size=4][font=arial][b]Summary[/b][/font][/size]
The last 24-48hours has seen some very good snowfall for the Alps, more especially towards the NW, this is set to continue overnight into Saturday.
The weekend starts on a cold unsettled them with winds from North Westerly direction. This is associated with low pressure off the south coast of Scandinavia.
This rather unsettled and cold theme continues through the weekend.
[attachment=242964:Alps 30 Jan.JPG] [attachment=242965:Alps 30 Jan
[size=4][font=arial][b]Summary[/b][/font][/size]
Last week was a much better week than recently, the forecasted snow arrived in abundance last weekend, and largely cold conditions have remained ever since.
[size=4][font=arial][b]Synoptic Pattern[/b][/font][/size]
[font=arial]Currently the Alps has cold winds from the East to North East squeezed between the High to North West and a low pressure system over Italy.
[attachment=240930:Alps 23 Jan.JPG] [attachment=240929:ALps 23 Jan +24.JPG]
[size=4][font=arial][b]Summary[/b][/font][/size]
It was forecast last week that a mixed week was in prospect for the Alps, and so it proved. The weekend was mild as excepted, however it turned out milder than I anticipated due to the foehn effect with parts of Austria hitting close to 22c. It did turn colder threrafer with some snow with some decent conditions in places.
[size=4][font=arial][b]Synoptic Pattern[/b][/font][/size]
Not the first time this winter there is a pattern change unde